1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations cooled, causing the US dollar index to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, and economic growth slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks, leading to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level; in the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Macro Situation**: US July PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, indicating potential inflation. Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the trade deficit decreased, weakening the contribution of net exports to the economy. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks [2]. - **Asset Performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy. Bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious approach [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Movement**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as armament restructuring, rail transit equipment, and components. The economic growth in July slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, with an enhanced short - term upward macro - drive [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term cautious long - position, but beware of high - level correction risks [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of steel futures and spot prices widened on Thursday, with reduced trading volume. Real - world demand weakened, inventory increased by 400,000 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and plate production was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou. Iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market as oscillating weakly in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline of iron ore futures and spot prices widened on Thursday. With an approaching important event, iron - water production may decline. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 151,000 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 1.259 million tons. Port inventory was accumulating, and supply pressure increased. Iron ore prices may weaken periodically [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, but the futures prices declined significantly. Manganese ore prices slightly increased, and there was an expectation of new silicon - manganese production capacity. Some silicon - iron enterprises had profits and high production enthusiasm. The downstream was waiting for steel mill pricing and had a strong willingness to replenish inventory. Iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated. Supply increased week - on - week, and the pattern of oversupply remained unchanged, with new device launches expected in the fourth quarter. Demand support was weak, and profit decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with limited upward price space [7]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract oscillated. Glass daily melting volume remained stable week - on - week, and there were expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Terminal real - estate demand was weak but slightly improved. Glass profit decreased week - on - week. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US economy is slowing, and the risk of recession exists. Copper - mine production growth is higher than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper - price trend may not last [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the aluminum closing price declined slightly. Aluminum's fundamentals weakened, with domestic social inventory increasing by nearly 140,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 137,000 tons from the low in mid - June. The medium - term upward space is limited, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [10][11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is in the demand off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased by 90 tons to 10,235 tons. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to risks and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated sharply. The main 2511 contract increased by 0.28%. The supply of the Jiangxi Ningde Times Jiaxiawo Mine stopped, causing a short - term supply shortage. The subsequent uncertainty lies in whether the remaining mines can complete the ore - type change by September 30 [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.14%. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal and polysilicon sentiment and the cash - flow cost support [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 3.08%. The number of warehouse receipts increased, reflecting stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the possibility of a weakening market [14]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak, and the basis was strong. The inventory in Chinese ports and production enterprises increased. Supply - side maintenance was concentrated, and there were rumors of coking production cuts in Shandong. The supply was expected to decrease, and demand was boosted by the restart of inland olefin plants. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, but there were regional differences. The price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: The spot market of PP oscillated and declined. The inventory of two major petrochemical companies decreased. Crude - oil prices decreased, improving PP cost - profit, and new production capacity was planned to be launched in mid - to - late August. Demand was in the off - season, and industrial inventory increased. The 09 contract price may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is currently considered weak. Pay attention to oil - price fluctuations [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was slightly adjusted. The weekly production increased by 0.14% and is expected to decrease by 3.49% next week. Demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak. Pay attention to demand and inventory replenishment [17]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1031, down 13.25 or 1.27%. The net export sales of the current - market - year US soybeans decreased by 377,600 tons in the week ending August 7, while the next - market - year net export sales increased by 1.133 million tons [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: After the preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping, rapeseed meal drove up the premium sentiment of soybean meal. The export price of Brazilian soybeans increased. The short - term cost drove up soybean meal prices, but the domestic inventory was accumulating, and the downstream demand was weak. If China imports US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal, the premium will decline [18][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed - oil port inventory was high and difficult to deplete, and the supply was expected to shrink. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation would improve in the fourth quarter. Palm - oil inventory in Malaysia was accumulating, and export demand was expected to improve. Indonesian and Indian inventories were low. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policy news. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high. Pay attention to the supplementary increase of soybean oil and consider the strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting palm oil [19]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn was weak, and market transactions were inactive. Enterprises in North China planned to reduce inventory. Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. The corn futures market was weak [20]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price in the benchmark area is stable at 13.5 - 13.8 yuan/kg. Large - scale pig farms have almost completed weight - reduction, and the entry of secondary fattening has increased. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to improve, and pig prices may rebound [20].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周，玉米 9 月合约减仓调整，期价呈现震荡表现。9 月合约连续一周减仓调整， | 下跌 | | | 多空表现较为焦灼。现货市场中，伴随着进口玉米拍卖成交率的下滑，进口玉米 | | | | 拍卖对市场的影响也有所减弱，东北产区市场整体的气氛有所恢复，东北玉米价 | | | | 格目前有所反弹。 华北地区玉米价格整体稳定， 个别企业窄幅上调，主流价格 | | | | 保持稳定。山东深加工企业玉米到货量有所增加，但深加工企业玉米价格整体保 | | | 玉米 | 持稳定。河南、河北少数企业价格窄幅上调。销区市场玉米价格小幅反弹。周末 | | | | 产区玉米价格反弹 10-20 元/吨，期货走势接连上行，销区港口贸易商报价小幅 | | | | 提升，但下游市场接受一般，购销平淡，替代选择较多，玉米刚需为主。技术上， | | | | 玉米 9 月合约重新反弹至此前密集成交区 2320-2330 的价格区间，短线反弹遭遇 | | | | 到技术关口压制，期价短期呈现震荡偏弱表现。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming US-China trade talks in Sweden is on the broader implications for global trade and economic relations, moving beyond just tariff discussions [1][3] - The US is under pressure from its businesses, including major companies like Apple and Nvidia, to seek a resolution with China, as they face challenges in the current economic environment [1][3] - The US aims to expand the negotiation topics to include energy issues, particularly regarding China's purchases of oil from Iran and Russia, indicating a shift from traditional trade discussions to a more comprehensive negotiation strategy [3][4] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary has acknowledged the difficulty of containing Chinese products through tariffs, leading to a new approach that incorporates energy and geopolitical issues into trade discussions [3][6] - China maintains that its energy transactions with Russia and Iran are legitimate and opposes US attempts to impose sanctions or dictate its energy policy, emphasizing its commitment to energy security [7][9] - The ongoing negotiations are seen as a strategic maneuver by the US to leverage energy as a bargaining chip, potentially impacting China's energy supply chain and its economic stability [6][11] Group 3 - The talks are characterized as a "package deal" where the US seeks concessions across multiple areas, not limited to trade, which reflects a broader strategic competition between the two nations [4][6] - China's response to US pressure includes diversifying its energy sources and strengthening ties with other countries, indicating a robust strategy to counteract US influence [9][11] - The potential for increased cooperation among BRICS nations in response to US actions suggests a shift in global economic alliances, which could further complicate US-China relations [9][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the U.S. and China will hold the third round of trade negotiations in Sweden next week, discussing the extension of the tariff "truce" and other broader issues [2][11] - The U.S. stock market's S&P 500 index reached a record closing high, driven by investor focus on recent and upcoming corporate earnings reports and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks [3] - The Hang Seng Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 25.27%, the second highest among major Asian markets, following South Korea [11] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.77% to 4.3440, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 4.66% [5] - The international monetary fund indicated that domestic policies in the U.S. and China have exacerbated global economic imbalances, and Trump's tariff actions have not resolved this issue [6] - As of Tuesday, southbound funds have net purchased Hong Kong stocks close to last year's total level, indicating strong foreign interest [11]