证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Cement (600802.SH) expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in the range of -120 million to -80 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 represents an improvement from the previous year's statutory disclosure data, suggesting a decrease in losses [1]

建材ETF（159745）跟踪的是建筑材料指数（931009），该指数主要涵盖从事建材生产、销售及相 关服务的企业，包括水泥、玻璃、陶瓷等子行业，以反映建筑材料相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 根据wind数据，建材ETF（159745）盘中净流入4.08亿份，资金抢筹布局。 中泰证券指出，水泥行业在"反内卷"大背景下易涨难跌。全国水泥市场价格环比保持平稳。元月下 旬，受全国大范围降温、雨雪天气影响，水泥需求大幅下滑，国内重点地区水泥企业平均出货率降至 29%，环比回落约10个百分点，临近春节，预计后期需求恢复空间有限，水泥价格多将维持稳中趋弱态 势为主。此外，2025年行业通过产线置换实现历史首次实质性去产能，2026-27年有含去30%产能的预 期，行业盈利能力有望大幅改善。 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fujian Cement, announced a performance loss forecast due to a continuous decline in cement market demand, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts. The company is implementing various cost control and efficiency measures to mitigate losses and achieve its annual loss reduction goals [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - The company reported a year-on-year decrease in both product sales volume and operating revenue, although the average selling price per unit slightly increased and sales costs significantly decreased [1] - The gross profit margin for product sales increased year-on-year, indicating some operational efficiency despite the overall revenue decline [1] Group 2: Strategic Measures - The company is actively engaging in staggered production and promoting regional collaboration to combat market competition [1] - Efforts are being made to enhance precise marketing, lean operations, and improve labor efficiency while controlling expenses [1] Group 3: Asset Management - In compliance with the "Cement and Glass Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures (2024 Edition)," the company is making provisions for asset impairment related to two production lines of 2,500 tons per day to replace three lines of 4,500 tons per day [1] - The company plans to conduct impairment testing and evaluations for its subsidiaries, including Haixia Cement and Ningde Jianfu, and will make necessary asset impairment provisions [1] Group 4: Non-Recurring Gains - The company achieved non-recurring gains of approximately 23 million yuan (pre-tax), primarily from government subsidies included in the current period's profit and loss, which positively impacted the net profit attributable to the parent company's owners [1]

Group 1 - The company, Fujian Cement, expects a net profit loss of between 120 million yuan and 80 million yuan for the year 2025, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - The cement sector experienced a volatile rebound on January 29, with Sichuan Jinding hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Tapai Group, Western Construction, and Shafeng Cement also saw increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with relevant departments and local governments, implemented 24,000 ecological environment governance projects, resulting in a significant reduction in the total emissions of major pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, chemical oxygen demand, and ammonia nitrogen [1] - The reduction in nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds reached approximately 210,000 tons and 220,000 tons respectively, with the elimination of outdated production capacity including over 120 million tons of step-type sintering machine capacity and over 68 million tons of 4.3-meter and below coke oven capacity [1] - Urban environmental infrastructure construction has seen significant improvements, with cumulative reductions of approximately 3.2 million tons in chemical oxygen demand and 350,000 tons in ammonia nitrogen emissions through sewage treatment projects [1] Group 2 - A total of 124 major projects for soil pollution source control were implemented during the "14th Five-Year Plan," managing the leakage risk of 55 million tons of toxic and harmful substances annually [2] - The capacity for centralized treatment of hazardous waste reached 220 million tons per year, a 60% increase compared to 2020 [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to focus on strategic and leading major projects in areas such as air, water, and soil protection, solid waste and new pollutant management, ecosystem optimization, and climate change response for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Core Insights - The company has implemented a comprehensive digital transformation, achieving significant improvements in production efficiency and environmental sustainability through advanced technologies and automation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Digital Transformation and Automation - The company has interconnected over 10,000 devices and deployed 208 AI models, covering 368 data standards and 400 key indicators, facilitating real-time data flow across the entire production process [1]. - The central control room operates like "intelligent driving," allowing a few technicians to monitor all production data and quickly address any anomalies [1]. - The introduction of unmanned vehicles has optimized operational routes and improved mining efficiency, while also enhancing safety by reducing human presence in hazardous areas [1]. Group 2: Economic and Environmental Benefits - The digital transformation has led to a 1.07% reduction in coal consumption per ton of clinker, improving production stability [2]. - The integration of an intelligent quality system has automated the entire sampling, preparation, analysis, and batching process, achieving over 86% accuracy in strength prediction and reducing limestone variability by 0.71% [2]. - The company has established a "health record" for equipment management and a fully automated supply and logistics system, enhancing operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics and Recognition - Since the digital transformation, production efficiency has increased by approximately 11.1%, with 100% of key equipment achieving numerical control and connectivity [3]. - The company has significantly reduced comprehensive electricity consumption, physical coal consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions, aligning with green development goals [3]. - The company has received multiple accolades, including "National Excellent Intelligent Factory," "National Green Factory," "National High-tech Enterprise," and "National Green Mine," highlighting its achievements in green intelligent manufacturing [3].

"2026年预计水泥价格反弹空间有限，均价仍将下移，行业利润仍处于低位水平。"展望2026年行业价格 走向，中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院分析师李坤明在接受上海证券报记者采访时称。 回望2025年，水泥市场总体呈现"量价齐跌"态势。但得益于上半年煤炭成本下降明显，叠加水泥价格高 于同期，全年行业利润有所修复。同时，水泥行业在2025年底完成了全国碳市场首个履约周期；工业和 信息化部等六部门联合印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》则为行业指明严控产能、绿 色智能转型路径。 站在新的起点，水泥行业发展将面临怎样的外部环境，供需能否改善？企业又将如何在"存量竞争"中破 局，寻找新的增长曲线？ 去产能主基调不改 据水泥网App统计，2025年全国共有31条熟料生产线宣布不再建设，合计产能4746.1万吨（产能按照310 天计算），这也成为水泥行业在需求下行压力下，主动收缩供给、迈向再平衡的缩影。 政策层面也在积极引导行业结构优化。1月以来，多省份积极响应国家层面产能管控政策，密集发布辖 区内水泥企业补充产能置换方案公示及公告，推动结构性产能出清。 "2026年，水泥行业有望强化产能管理，持续推动备案产能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes China's commitment to accelerating a comprehensive green transformation in its economy and society, with a focus on achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 [1][4][5] - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has set "accelerating comprehensive green transformation" as a core task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the importance of ecological security and green development [4][5] - Key mechanisms for carbon neutrality have made significant progress, including the expansion of the national carbon market to cover steel, cement, and aluminum industries, and the establishment of national zero-carbon parks [1][6][11][13] Group 2 - China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) aims for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption reaching over 30% of total energy consumption [6][10] - The national unified resource and environmental market is being developed to enhance market efficiency and promote the marketization of resource and environmental factors [7][8] - The total electricity consumption in China surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, marking a significant milestone and reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [9][10] Group 3 - The energy power strategy emphasizes energy security, green transformation, and technological self-reliance, with a focus on seven key tasks for energy work in 2026 [10][11] - The first batch of national zero-carbon parks has been established, with 52 parks across various regions, focusing on low-energy, low-pollution, and high-value-added industries [11][12] - The national carbon market has expanded to include three major high-energy-consuming industries, significantly increasing the coverage of carbon emissions [13][15] Group 4 - The issuance of green certificates reached nearly 3 billion in 2025, with international recognition from the RE100 initiative, enhancing the credibility and market demand for Chinese green certificates [16][17] - Twelve new CCER methodologies were implemented in 2025, focusing on key areas for voluntary emission reductions, which is expected to activate the voluntary carbon market [18][19] - The COP30 conference resulted in a commitment from wealthy nations to double funding for climate change adaptation by 2035, although the omission of fossil fuel references in the final text raised concerns [20][21]