从技术分析的角度，今日的走势说明整数关口的突破并不有效，3900点以上仍然存在较大压力，反而市 场的先扬后抑一定程度挫伤了多头的做多热情。从15分钟级别来看，昨日的上涨呈现涨幅逐渐衰减的特 征，体现了多头接力力度的衰竭；而今日的下挫则较为流畅，直至昨日早盘低点支撑区间才略有企稳， 恐高情绪的扩散不言而喻。 上证综指收盘下跌36.94点，跌幅：0.94%，报3897.03点；深证成指收盘下跌370.14点，跌幅：2.7%，报 13355.42点；创业板指收盘下跌148.56点，跌幅：4.55%，报3113.26点。假期结束，节前避险的资金重 新活跃，成交量恢复至节前较高水平。沪深两市成交额约2.5万亿，较昨日缩量超1000亿。 板块方面，今日热点轮动加速。前期表现稍弱的反内卷板块涨幅居前，建材、煤炭等有所表现。红利板 块出现反弹，多支银行个股出现止跌迹象。受券商调整中芯国际折算率等消息影响，市场对科技成长股 过高估值水平的担忧逐渐发酵，前期表现亮眼的科技成长板块集体杀跌。 节后开盘首日沪指气势如虹，受长假期间贵金属及港美科技股大涨刺激，"有色+科技"携手并进， 一举 攻下3900点压力位。今日则风云突变，受券商 ...

一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数震荡下挫，多只石油石化板块ETF上涨 3、行业、主题ETF合计规模破万亿元，年内增长超77% 据每日经济新闻，Wind（万得）数据显示，截至9月30日，全市场共有483只主题指数ETF和84只行业指 数ETF，最新规模分别为7747.85亿元和2876.27亿元，合计规模突破1万亿元。而年初，422只主题指数 ETF规模仅为4103.95亿元，76只行业指数ETF规模为1892.42亿元，二者合计规模为5996.37亿元。也就 是说，今年前三季度这两类ETF规模合计新增4627.74亿元，年内增长超77%。对比之下，今年前三季 度，宽基ETF以近2.2万亿元的基数仅新增3300亿元规模；同期行业、主题ETF从不到6000亿元规模一举 突破1万亿元。 基金份额的变动更能说明问题。据Wind数据统计，行业指数ETF今年前三季度份额新增847.08亿份至 3065.38亿份，主题指数ETF新增2050.32亿份至7280.6亿份，两者合计新增2897.4亿份；作为对比，宽基 ETF同期份额合计减少2241.5亿份。 如何看待行业、主题ETF与宽基ETF的"份额分化"？有分析认为，当前 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 建材ETF（159745）跟踪的是建筑材料指数（931009），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及建筑原材料、装 饰材料等相关行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映建材行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。建筑 材料指数成分股具有较强的周期性特征，在行业配置上主要覆盖基础建设与房地产相关领域，体现了对 经济周期敏感度较高的风格特点。 东莞证券指出，在水泥行业经历下行周期下，部分企业凭借区域布局、经营管理及战略优势，表现出较 强的业绩韧性及较高的盈利能力。2025年水泥市场供需格局将进一步改善，水泥价格有望持续修复，带 动行业业绩回升。近年来行业整体毛利率虽呈现下降趋势，但龙头企业通过海外扩张和多元化业务布局 增强抗周期性，例如海外水泥产能计划从当前2500万吨提升至约5000万吨，未来海外业务或成为重要增 长引擎。此外，行业维持稳定分红比例，随着业绩修复，持续分红能力将增强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, highlighting the importance of capacity clearing and the potential for structural opportunities in traditional sectors like agriculture and chemicals as they adapt to changing market conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Trends - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are experiencing a "cooling down" phase, with polysilicon futures prices dropping from a historical high of 55,000 yuan/ton to 51,400 yuan/ton, indicating a significant decrease in market activity [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices have also declined from over 90,000 yuan/ton to around 78,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a broader trend of reduced short-term investment in these sectors [4]. - The overall profitability of the lithium battery industry is under pressure, with a projected 2.8% decline in revenue for 2024, despite a 32.6% increase in lithium battery shipments to 1,175 GWh [5]. Group 2: Structural Opportunities - Traditional industries such as chemicals and agriculture are emerging as more certain structural opportunities due to their ability to differentiate and restructure supply chains in response to the "anti-involution" trend [2][6]. - The chemical sector is facing challenges, with nearly 25% of companies projected to incur losses in 2024, prompting a consensus on the need for policy-driven capacity elimination and the cessation of price wars [9]. - The agricultural sector is also adapting, with a decline in the number of breeding sows, indicating a potential reduction in excess capacity as the government implements measures to promote industry consolidation [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The A-share market has seen a rotation of "anti-involution" themes, with significant gains in sectors like chemicals (16%), building materials (15%), coal (10%), and agriculture (8%) since July [2][8]. - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" policy aims to reshape competition in various industries through capacity clearing and price guidance, which is expected to lead to improved profitability and market conditions [8][9]. - Analysts predict that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies could boost industry profitability by 53% over the next two years, with certain stocks already showing an 8% increase since the policy announcement [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries are experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with capacity clearing becoming crucial for future growth [1][2][3] - The valuation recovery in photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors is still in its early stages, with expectations of improved capacity utilization leading to potential market peaks by 2026 [1][3] - Traditional industries such as agriculture, chemicals, and building materials are emerging as more certain structural opportunities due to differentiation and demand upgrades [1][4] Group 2 - The lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors have seen significant price corrections, with polysilicon futures dropping from 55,000 CNY/ton to 51,400 CNY/ton, and lithium carbonate prices falling from 90,000 CNY/ton to 78,000 CNY/ton [2][3] - The overall profitability in the lithium battery sector is under pressure, with a projected 2.8% decline in revenue for 2024, despite a 32.6% increase in shipment volume [3] - The chemical industry is facing dual pressures of weak product prices and declining capacity utilization, with nearly 25% of chemical companies expected to report losses in 2024 [5][6] Group 3 - Policy measures are reshaping competition across multiple industries, with a focus on capacity clearing and price guidance to improve profitability [5] - The agricultural sector is also expected to benefit from capacity adjustments and environmental regulations, leading to a decrease in outdated production capacity [6] - The "de-involution" policies are anticipated to inject new momentum into corporate profitability, with a projected 53% increase in related industry earnings over the next two years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with over 90 million units net inflow into the construction materials ETF (159745), indicating strong investor interest in construction assets [1] Demand Side Analysis - Important national meetings, such as the Two Sessions and the Central Political Bureau meeting, have focused on stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost demand for construction materials [1] - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized urban renewal, which includes the renovation of urban villages and old housing, as well as upgrading old pipelines, likely increasing demand for pipes, waterproofing materials, and coatings [1] - Future policy support for home decoration, old renovations, and urban renewal is anticipated, which may enhance confidence in the industry chain [1] Supply Side Analysis - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to lead to positive changes in the supply side of industries such as coatings, waterproofing, and cement, gradually optimizing the industry structure [1] - There is potential for recovery in profit margins for companies within the construction materials sector as supply conditions improve [1] Industry Outlook - With demand recovering and supply optimizing, the construction materials industry is poised for a turnaround, with 2025 projected to be a year of profit recovery for the sector [1] - Continued improvement in demand could provide greater recovery potential for the industry [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities arising from the sector's turnaround and marginal improvement in fundamentals [1] - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index, which includes segments such as cement, glass, and consumer construction materials [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the linked fund (013020) to access investment opportunities in the construction materials sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The exchanges have increased transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda to cool down the market, leading to a significant drop in trading volume and a mixed performance in the black commodities sector [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Fee Adjustments - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced an increase in transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda effective from July 30, 2025, with specific fees set at 10 CNY per hand for glass, 0.04% of transaction value for soda ash, and 0.02% of transaction value for caustic soda [1]. - Following the fee adjustments, there was a notable rebound in previously declining commodities, with coking coal rising over 6%, glass over 4%, and coking coke over 4% [1]. Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - The trading volume in the futures market has significantly decreased, with a 31.89% drop to 38.76 million hands and a 23.45% decrease in transaction value to 321.26 billion CNY, marking the lowest levels since July 21 [2]. - Specific commodities like glass and soda ash saw trading volume declines of 26.3% and 32.5%, respectively, while coking coal's volume dropped nearly 40% to 2.96 million hands [2]. - Glass and soda ash continue to experience capital outflows, with 221 million CNY and 102 million CNY leaving the respective markets [2]. Group 3: Black Commodity Sector Dynamics - The black commodity sector showed mixed performance, with coking coal prices declining but at a reduced rate, influenced by the rise in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices, which increased by around 2% [4]. - The main rebar contract closed at 3,347 CNY per ton, with a trading volume increase of 239,000 hands and a capital inflow of 1.39 billion CNY, indicating a shift in investment focus towards rebar and hot-rolled coil [4]. - The construction materials ETF saw significant fluctuations, with a peak of 1.648 billion units on July 24, followed by a reduction to 953 million units by July 28, reflecting a capital outflow exceeding 500 million CNY [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in black commodities were primarily driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental changes, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies expected to influence future market conditions [5]. - There is a consensus regarding potential production cuts in September, but the actual impact remains uncertain, indicating a need for caution regarding price volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments made by commodity exchanges to cool down the market, specifically focusing on the increased transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda futures, which have led to a notable decrease in trading volume and market activity [1][2]. Group 1: Fee Adjustments - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced an increase in transaction fees for various futures contracts effective from July 30, 2025, including a fee of 10 yuan per hand for glass futures and a fee of 0.04% of the transaction amount for soda ash futures [2]. - The transaction fee for caustic soda futures was set at 0.02% of the transaction amount for both regular and intraday positions [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the fee adjustments, there was a significant rebound in previously declining futures, with coking coal rising over 6%, glass increasing by over 4%, and both coking coal and soda ash seeing gains of over 3% [3]. - Despite the rebound, the overall trading volume in the futures market dropped significantly, with a 31.89% decrease to 38.76 million contracts and a 23.45% decrease in transaction value to 32.13 billion yuan, marking the lowest levels since July 21 [4]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Positioning - The glass and soda ash markets continued to experience capital outflows, with glass seeing a net outflow of 221 million yuan and soda ash 102 million yuan [4]. - Open interest in both glass and soda ash futures has been declining, with glass positions down by 26,700 contracts and soda ash by 41,500 contracts [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The black series commodities showed mixed performance, with coking coal continuing to decline but at a reduced rate, while rebar and hot-rolled coil saw approximately 2% increases [6]. - The rebar futures contract closed at 3,347 yuan per ton, with a 1.98% increase and significant capital inflow, indicating a shift in investor focus towards rebar and hot-rolled coil [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant losses reported among short sellers in commodity and stock index futures. The article suggests that the most certain investment opportunities in a bull market are either in leading sectors or in severely undervalued stocks [2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes that low-priced stocks tend to be driven up to reasonable levels during a bull market, indicating that underperforming sectors may see substantial gains due to ongoing liquidity and policy support [2]. - The upcoming major meetings are expected to enhance expectations for "stabilizing growth," which may provide considerable policy space for undervalued industries [2]. Group 2: ETF Analysis - The article utilizes the net value percentile calculation method to assess which sectors are currently in a state of severe undervaluation [3]. - A table is provided showing various ETFs, their net value percentiles since 2023 and 2024, and their performance in 2025, highlighting sectors like photovoltaic, alcohol, and real estate [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic sector is identified as particularly undervalued, with ETFs like the photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH) and new energy ETF (516160.SH) showing significant declines. The sector's performance is closely tied to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [9][10]. - The alcohol sector, particularly the alcohol ETF (512690.SH), is also noted for being in a state of decline, with a lack of clear catalysts for recovery until consumer data improves [20][21]. - The real estate sector shows signs of divergence, with the real estate ETF (159707.SZ) experiencing intermittent policy-driven rallies but ultimately returning to lower levels [25][26]. Group 4: Medical and Pharmaceutical Sector - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as being collectively undervalued, with various ETFs like the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859.SZ) showing potential for recovery due to recent policy shifts regarding procurement practices [33][35]. - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is also mentioned as being in a relatively low valuation position, with a modest performance outlook [39]. Group 5: Commodity and Chemical Sectors - The coal sector has seen a significant price drop but is experiencing a rebound due to rising prices in coking coal and coke futures, with the coal ETF (515220.SH) reflecting this trend [43][45]. - The chemical sector is noted for its broad product range and recent price increases in lithium carbonate, with the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) positioned as relatively undervalued [49][54]. Conclusion - The article concludes that sectors such as chemicals, biopharmaceuticals, medical, alcohol, and photovoltaic are currently in a state of severe undervaluation, presenting potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [56].

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, capturing industry trends through diffusion indices; Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion indices of various industries, ranking them accordingly. The formula for the diffusion index is not explicitly provided; Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant drawdowns during market reversals[24][25][28] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process minute-level volume and price data, aiming to capture trading information; Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factors, which are derived from the deep learning network's analysis of trading data. The specific formula for GRU factors is not provided; Evaluation: The model has performed well in short cycles but has shown general performance in longer cycles[31][32][35] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.89%, Excess Return Since July: -3.47%, Excess Return YTD: -0.45%[28] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 4.27%, Excess Return Since July: 1.34%, Excess Return YTD: -4.25%[35] - Factor Name: Diffusion Index; Construction Idea: The factor is based on the momentum of industry prices, capturing upward trends; Construction Process: The factor is calculated by observing the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion indices of various industries. The specific formula is not provided; Evaluation: The factor has shown varying performance, with significant drawdowns during market reversals[24][25][28] - Factor Name: GRU Factor; Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks, capturing trading information from minute-level volume and price data; Construction Process: The factor is calculated by ranking industries based on the GRU network's analysis of trading data. The specific formula is not provided; Evaluation: The factor has performed well in short cycles but has shown general performance in longer cycles[31][32][35] - Diffusion Index Factor, Top Industries: Comprehensive Finance (1.0), Steel (1.0), Non-Bank Finance (0.999), Comprehensive (0.998), Non-Ferrous Metals (0.997), Home Appliances (0.995)[25] - GRU Factor, Top Industries: Banking (3.3), Real Estate (0.58), Oil & Petrochemicals (-1.26), Textile & Apparel (-1.73), Light Manufacturing (-2.49), Electric Power & Utilities (-2.83)[32]