在鲍威尔美联储主席生涯中的倒数第三次会议上，美联储官员们分裂成加息、观望、降息三派，凸显出 潜在继任者沃什在建立共识方面面临的严峻挑战。 纪要指出："部分参与者……预计，与技术或监管发展相关的生产率增长加快，将对整体通胀形成下行 压力。然而，大多数参与者警告称，向委员会2%通胀目标的推进可能比普遍预期的更缓慢、更不均 衡，并判断通胀持续高于委员会目标的风险具有重要意义。" 人工智能带来巨大潜力、风险与不确定性 1月会议上的争论反映出，鲍威尔及后续的沃什未来可能面临一段充满挑战的时期——政策制定者既要 应对短期经济数据的波动，又要试图预判人工智能驱动的经济结构性重组将以何种方式、何种速度展 开。 例如，美联储工作人员的分析预计，经济将继续保持强劲增长，这一展望与特朗普政府宣称的政策目标 一致。但工作人员认为，经济增长将"超过潜在水平"，并预计通胀将上升，"反映出资源利用率将进一 步收紧的预期"。这与沃什已认可的观点相悖——沃什认为，生产率提升速度将足够快，足以支撑经济 强劲增长，同时减轻物价压力。 纪要称，鉴于人工智能被视为兼具巨大潜力、风险与不确定性，美联储上月决定暂停货币宽松是恰当之 举，以便在去年降息75 ...

Group 1 - Strong demand for green, smart, and healthy consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, with sales of smart wearable devices increasing by 130%, smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters up over 60%, and organic food sales rising by 52% [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future interest rate directions, with some members discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above 2% [1] - High-profile political changes in Japan as Fumio Kishida is confirmed as the new Prime Minister, with expectations to focus on accelerating budget reviews and implementing the U.S.-Japan trade agreement [1] Group 2 - The Spring Festival holiday sees a booming market for holiday consumption and tourism services, with regulatory measures in place to stabilize prices in accommodation, dining, and other sectors [2] - Despite not being listed on the capital market, the founder of Lu Hua Group has been active in the A-share market, investing approximately 400 million yuan and 1 billion yuan in recent private placements [2] - The appointment of a "post-00" executive at Xiao Fang Pharmaceutical, with the nomination of a 24-year-old as a non-independent director, highlights a generational shift in corporate leadership [2] Group 3 - The China Real Estate Market Outlook report predicts a 6.2% year-on-year decline in new residential sales area in 2026, with a narrowing decline compared to 2025 [3] - Deloitte forecasts a 26% growth in the global semiconductor industry by 2026, reaching a record high of $975 billion, driven by the development of AI infrastructure [3] Group 4 - Barclays Bank reports that the AI and robotics market is expected to grow to a trillion-dollar scale by 2035, marking it as a key investment theme for the next decade [5] - UBS predicts that 2026 will be a critical turning point for humanoid robots, with global shipments expected to reach 30,000 units and the Chinese market surpassing 8.5 billion yuan [5] - The AI boom is driving unprecedented electricity demand, with gas turbine manufacturers experiencing a backlog of orders extending to 2030 [5] Group 5 - The global AI unicorn Anthropic anticipates paying $80 billion in sales shares to cloud service providers by 2029, a significant increase from $1.3 million in 2024 [7] - Bayer proposes a $7.25 billion settlement in the U.S. related to its flagship herbicide Roundup, addressing over 200,000 cancer-related lawsuits [7] - Volkswagen's marine engine and heat pump production division, Everllence, is attracting interest from top private equity firms, with a potential valuation between €5 billion and €6 billion [7]

Group 1 - In 2025, foreign investors purchased $1.55 trillion in U.S. long-term financial assets, an increase from $1.18 trillion the previous year, driven by demand for stocks and U.S. Treasury securities [1] - Of the total, $658.5 billion flowed into stocks and $442.7 billion into U.S. Treasury securities, including medium- and long-term bonds [1] - The narrative of "Sell America" is countered by the increasing foreign investment in U.S. assets, despite geopolitical concerns and threats of increased tariffs from the U.S. government [1] Group 2 - In addition to stocks and Treasury securities, foreign investors also net purchased $327.8 billion in corporate bonds and $112.9 billion in agency debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [2] - Europe contributed $872.8 billion in net inflows of long-term financial assets, while China reduced its holdings of U.S. long-term financial assets by $208.6 billion, reaching the lowest level since 2008 [4] - In December, foreign investors had a net inflow of $44.9 billion in long-term securities, with private sector investors contributing $32.7 billion and official sector investors $12.2 billion [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a significant increase in foreign investment in U.S. financial assets in 2025, countering the "Sell America" narrative, with net purchases reaching $1.55 trillion, up from $1.18 trillion the previous year [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In 2025, foreign investors net purchased $1.55 trillion in U.S. long-term financial assets, with $658.5 billion in stocks and $442.7 billion in U.S. Treasury securities [1] - The net purchase of corporate bonds reached $327.8 billion, while net purchases of agency debt amounted to $112.9 billion [2] - European investors contributed $872.8 billion to long-term financial asset net inflows, with the Cayman Islands at $277.2 billion and Japan at $56 billion [4] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Securities Holdings - As of December, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities decreased by $88.4 billion to $9.27 trillion, marking the lowest level since October [3] - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, with holdings of $1.19 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom at $866 billion and mainland China at $683.5 billion [3] - China reduced its holdings of U.S. long-term financial assets by $208.6 billion, reaching the lowest level since 2008 [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Policies - U.S. Treasury Secretary has refuted the "Sell America" narrative, asserting that U.S. economic policies enhance its status as a preferred destination for global capital [2] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, analysts believe that the fundamental demand for U.S. Treasury securities will remain strong due to their significant share in global sovereign debt [2] - The depreciation of the dollar may encourage some foreign asset managers to increase their holdings in U.S. securities [2]

来源：芝麻AI 一、市场: ●2月19日收盘：美股收高科技股领涨 市场关注联储会议纪要 北京时间 2 月 19 日凌晨，美股周三收高，道指、纳指、标普 500 指数均上涨。英伟达、亚马逊、美光 科技等科技股表现亮眼，部分"不太为人熟知"的工业技术类股也有良好表现。投资者关注美联储 1 月会 议纪要，官员们对后续货币政策方向存在分歧，部分担忧通胀走高需上调借贷成本，部分对是否及何时 降息有不同看法。市场预计美联储在 6 月会议前维持当前政策利率，6 月及 9 月或降息。此外，因美国 称对伊朗动武仍有可能，油价跳涨，软件板块当日下跌。 [1] ●2月19日美股成交额前20：谷歌进军AI音乐创作领域 周三美股成交额前 20 中，英伟达成交 301.82 亿美元居首，收高 1.63%，其与 Meta 达成多年协议，被 指对英特尔不利。特斯拉收高 0.17%，因广告问题调整措辞免被吊销加州驾照。闪迪收高 1.66%，西部 数据将出售其部分股份。美光收高 5.3%，借英伟达工具加速分子发现。苹果虽仅成交 88.84 亿美元但 推出 AI 创建播放列表功能。谷歌 A 类股收高 0.43%，引入音乐类生成式 AI 功能。此外 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 随着华尔街因受AI工具威胁而疯狂对软件制造商股票重新定价，一群投资者正排队逢低买入。据城堡 证券股票及股票衍生品策略主管斯科特·鲁布纳称，散户交易者在其平台上抢购软件股的金额达到创纪 录水平。该公司自2017年开始追踪该数据。"我们平台上的净名义价值已达到我们从未见过的水平，"鲁 布纳在周二给客户的报告中写道，"买入活动的规模、持续性和广度已大幅超过之前的峰值，突显出散 户在2026年初作为增量需求主要来源的角色。"自从Anthropic PBC推出了一款为内部法律团队定制的生 产力工具以来，从小型软件开发商到大型财富管理公司等各种股票都卷入了抛售潮。 ...

2月18日，消息面: 美元连续第二个交易日小幅上涨，完全无视了市场定价所暗示的今年美联储将降息 约三次的预期。美元近期的看跌情绪有所缓解，所谓的前端风险逆转指标已降至近一个月来的最低负值 水平。货币市场目前仍预期美联储年底前将降息约64个基点。部分策略师认为此预期过度，因三次降息 可能超出数据支撑的合理范围，这将使市场面临美元反弹的风险。布朗兄弟哈里曼公司市场策略全球主 管Elias Haddad表示："美联储降息的预期似乎有些过度了，这为美元短期内的走强提供了调整空 间。"他指出，经济增长态势良好，且通胀水平一直维持在高于美联储2%目标的水平之上。关注周四凌 晨的美联储会议纪要。 现货黄金（伦敦金）：技术面上来看昨日日线收了一根小阴柱，布林带缩口，价格即将选择新的方向， KDJ指标欲形成死叉，MACD快线处于慢线下方且绿色能量柱逐渐发散。目前来看大趋势仍旧偏上，中 线阶段性下行。短线4小时图中来看，布林带开口，KDJ指标死叉放量，MACD快慢线相互缠绕。小时 图中来看，布林带开口，KDJ指标欲形成金叉，MACD快线处于慢线下方且绿色能量柱逐渐发散。短线 价格如期回调，目前短线继续关注回调情况，下方支撑关注4 ...

2月18日，尽管近期市场关于金价触顶的争论升温，认为过去五年超170%的涨幅已透支未来空间，但这 种看空逻辑忽略了全球金融格局的底层变化。GTC泽汇资本表示，地缘政治的碎片化已开启了一个波动 新纪元，这不仅是短期刺激，更是激励全球资本长期转向实物资产的核心驱动力。在货币贬值压力、通 胀风险以及主权资产信用担忧交织的背景下，黄金在压力测试中的表现始终优于其他大类资产。 展望2026年，美元走弱、美债收益率重估以及持续的宏观不确定性，将共同支撑金价的长期上涨趋势。 GTC泽汇资本认为，虽然上涨过程不会是线性的，但官方储备多元化的进程远未结束。根据最新预测， 2026年全球央行的购金需求预计将维持在平均每季度585吨的高位，这意味着黄金作为核心避险资产 的"重估运动"仍有很长的路要走。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 2月18日，尽管近期市场关于金价触顶的争论升温，认为过去五年超170%的涨幅已透支未来空间，但这 种看空逻辑忽略了全球金融格局的底层变化。GTC泽汇资本表示，地缘政治的碎片化已开启了一个波动 新纪元，这不仅是短期刺激，更是激励全球资本长期转向实物资产的核心驱动力。在货币贬值压力 ...

随着与AI相关的担忧缓解，以及市场情绪因美联储和英国央行降息前景增强而改善，欧元信用债的违 约保护成本下降。最近公布的美国和英国通胀数据显示价格压力正在放缓，这增加了未来几个月降息的 可能性。标普全球市场财智的数据显示，iTraxx Europe Crossover欧元高收益信用违约掉期指数下跌3个 基点，至247个基点。iTraxx Europe Main欧元投资级CDS指数下跌1个基点，至52个基点。 ...

eToro的Lale Akoner表示，本周的英国劳动力市场数据和通胀数据是英国国债市场的主要驱动因素。她 表示，英国就业数据疲软和整体通胀放缓增加了英国央行降息的可能性，从而推低了短期英国国债收益 率。伦敦 证券交易所集团的数据显示，市场价格已反映英国央行3月份降息的概率为86%。Tradeweb数 据显示，两年期英国国债收益率下跌1个基点，最新报3.569%。 ...