Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congress's tax reform proposal is raising concerns about significantly increasing the federal deficit, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a sell-off in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a notable decline on May 21, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 816.80 points to close at 41,860.44, a decrease of 1.91% [1]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 95.85 points to 5,844.61, down 1.61%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 270.07 points to 18,872.64, a drop of 1.41% [1]. - The auction of $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds saw weak demand, resulting in a rise in bond yields, which negatively impacted the stock market [1]. Group 2: Treasury Yields - The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the second time that week, closing at 5.09%, marking the highest level since October 2023 [2]. - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 11 basis points to 4.6% on the same day [2]. - The yield on the 20-year Treasury bond reached 5.047%, the first time it has exceeded 5% since October 2023, indicating a lack of interest in purchasing new bonds [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The proposed tax reform is expected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 100% to a record 125% [2]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest expenditures [2]. - Concerns about inflation control and debt management are contributing to the rise in Treasury yields, as noted by market analysts [3]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Impact - Major retailers, including Target, have lowered their full-year earnings forecasts due to slowing consumer spending and declining confidence, further pressuring the stock market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market is experiencing a "triple kill" scenario with significant declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, leading to increased yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and heightened market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 22, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest drop in a month, with the S&P 500 down 1.61%, the Nasdaq down 1.41%, and the Dow Jones down 1.91% [2]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged by 15.42% [2]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on May 22 revealed a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking a 1.2 basis point increase from the pre-auction rate, the largest tail risk in six months [4]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening, as indicated by a drop in the bid-to-cover ratio from an average of 2.57 to 2.46 [4][5]. Group 3: Credit Rating and Market Sentiment - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, pushing the 30-year bond yield higher and negatively impacting stock futures [5]. - The market's reaction is attributed to concerns over the long-term fiscal deficit and debt pressure exacerbated by recent legislative developments [5]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The rising yields on U.S. Treasuries indicate a potential increase in government borrowing costs, which could lead to a vicious cycle of rising yields, increased financing costs, and a heavier debt burden [10]. - The U.S. government is projected to spend over $1 trillion on debt interest in the 2024 fiscal year, a 29% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level since 1998 [8][10]. Group 5: Global Market Effects - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields is likely to pressure risk asset valuations, potentially impacting high U.S. stock prices and global capital markets [11]. - Other countries' bond markets are also experiencing fluctuations, with yields in Germany and the UK rising as well [11]. - The rising yields may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, accelerating the global trend of de-dollarization [11]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that U.S. Treasury yields will remain high due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures, while medium to long-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in yields as economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts [12].

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5%, attributed to Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aa3 to Aa1, leading to market concerns over U.S. fiscal stability [1] - The U.S. government is pushing for a tax reform bill that aims to extend significant tax cuts from Trump's first term, potentially reducing taxes by over $4 trillion and cutting at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, which is expected to further impact U.S. Treasury sales [2] - The combination of tariff and tax policies is raising concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, prompting investors to express their apprehensions through the sale of U.S. Treasuries [2] Group 2 - The deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and increased economic uncertainty are leading sovereign funds and large investors to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which could raise U.S. financing costs and exacerbate the fiscal deficit [3] - Japan, as the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, is experiencing a rapid rise in its own bond yields, indicating a potential loss of confidence in both U.S. and Japanese government bonds, which could destabilize the global safe-haven asset market [3] - The era of ultra-loose monetary policy in both the U.S. and Japan may be coming to an end, which could have significant repercussions for global capital markets and real economies, potentially affecting external demand and exports from countries like China [4]

新华财经北京5月22日电作为穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后的首场长债发行，美国财政部周三（5月21 日）发行的160亿美元20年期国债受到市场高度关注。由于发行结果不佳，引发美国长期限国债收益率 全面上涨超过11BP。 其中，10年期美债收益率上涨11BP至4.60%，创逾三个月新高。此前在5%关口附近徘徊的20年期和30 年期美债收益率分别上涨13BP和12BP，至5.12%和5.09%，均为2023年11月以来新高。期限在10年以下 的美债收益率也普遍上涨5-10BP。 发行结果显示，本次招标的20年期美债中标利率为5.047%，较4月的4.810%高出24BP，一举站上5%大 关，较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2BP，是去年12月以来的最大尾部利差；投标倍数为2.46，低于4月的 2.63，为2月以来最低。 衡量海外需求的间接认购比例为69.02%，低于上月的70.7%，但仍高于67.2%的近期均值。衡量美国国 内需求的直接认购比例为14.1%，高于上月的12.3%。一级交易商获配比例为16.9%，稍低于上月的 17.0%。 结果公布后，盘中本就处在涨势的美债收益率出现一轮显著拉升；美股急挫，三大股指跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, selling $18.9 billion in March and falling to $765.4 billion, now ranking third globally behind the UK [1][2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - This marks the first time in 25 years that China has dropped to third place in US Treasury bond holdings since becoming one of the top two holders in 2000 [2]. - China's peak holdings exceeded $1.3 trillion in 2015, accounting for 23.2% of total foreign holdings [2]. - The reduction in holdings began during the trade war initiated by Trump, with China relinquishing its top position back to Japan [4]. Group 2: Current Trends - As of now, China's share of US Treasury bonds has shrunk to approximately 2.1%, indicating a significant "decoupling" from US financial assets [5]. - In March, while China sold off bonds, overseas investments in US Treasury bonds saw a net inflow of $161.8 billion, highlighting China's unique position [6]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen sharply, reaching 4.48%, which has put pressure on the US financial markets [6][7]. Group 3: Implications for US Debt - The upcoming maturity of $6.5 trillion in US Treasury bonds in June poses a significant challenge, as it represents 70% of the year's total maturities [8]. - Rising interest rates could lead to increased debt servicing costs, potentially exceeding $200 billion [9]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating for the first time in history, reflecting growing concerns about US debt sustainability [10]. Group 4: China's Strategy - China has been gradually reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, indicating a shift towards risk diversification [15][19]. - As of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase over six months [19]. - The geopolitical landscape, including tensions over trade and territorial issues, has influenced China's strategy towards US debt [19][20]. Group 5: Global Context - The situation mirrors the financial weaponization seen in the case of Russia, which drastically reduced its US Treasury holdings following sanctions [21]. - The total US debt is approaching $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US credit system [21][22]. - China's remaining holdings of US Treasury bonds serve as a strategic asset in negotiations, reflecting the ongoing complexities in US-China relations [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has reignited concerns over US fiscal issues, leading to increased selling of US Treasury bonds [1][2] - The US government is pushing for a tax reform plan that aims to extend significant tax cuts from the Trump administration, which could result in over $4 trillion in tax cuts and at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade [2] - The combination of tariff policies and tax cuts is expected to impact the stability of the US economy and create unpredictable shocks to the financial system, prompting investors to express their concerns through the sale of US Treasuries [2] Group 2 - The deterioration of the US fiscal situation and increased economic uncertainty are causing sovereign funds and large investors to replace US Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which may raise US financing costs and worsen the fiscal deficit [3] - The rise in US Treasury yields has not led to an increase in the dollar's value, indicating a continued outflow of long-term capital from the US [3] - Japan's bond market is also experiencing rising yields, with recent auctions for 30-year and 40-year bonds facing a lack of buyers, suggesting a failure of the yield curve control mechanism [3] Group 3 - The era of ultra-loose monetary policy in both the US and Japan may be coming to an end, which could have significant impacts on global capital markets and the real economy [4] - This external environment may lead to reduced external demand, potentially affecting exports from other countries, while also providing more autonomy for domestic monetary policies [4]

首家获批在我国境内展业的外资信用评级机构发生高管变更。 5月20日，标普信用评级（中国）有限公司（下称"标普信评"或"标普中国"）发布公告，因业务发展需要，公司董事、高级管理 人员、法定代表人将于近日发生变更。 自2025年7月1日起，原标普信评首席执行官、总经理及法定代表人黄直升任公司董事长，原职务由郭振伟接任，郭振伟同时出 任标普信评董事。 原公司董事长Lynn Elizabeth Maxwell（琳恩·伊丽莎白·麦克斯韦）女士卸任董事长一职，但将继续担任标普信评董事。原公司董 事Dennis Martin OSullivan（丹尼斯·奥沙利文）先生卸任董事一职。 21世纪经济报道记者了解到，新出任标普信评CEO的郭振伟，是标普旗下市场财智业务——标普财智在中国的负责人，标普财 智旗下Capital IQ数据库目前是继彭博金融终端后，全球市场占有率第二的头部金融数据终端。 事实上，虽然信用评级业务（Ratings）依然是标普全球的核心业务之一，但其市场财智业务（Market intelligence）的收入从 2022年开始就超过信用评级带来的营收。 在资深信评从业人士看来，如今标普信评在中国的业务转向进 ...

5月20日，标普信用评级（中国）有限公司发布公告，因业务发展需要，公司董事、高级管理人员、法 定代表人将于近日发生变更。 ...

标普信用评级(中国)有限公司宣布因业务发展需要，公司董事、高级管理人员、法定代表人将于近日变 更。自2025年7月1日起，原首席执行官黄直升任公司董事长，郭振伟接任首席执行官。郭振伟此前担任 标普旗下市场财智业务在中国的负责人，其领导的Capital IQ数据库为全球市场占有率第二的金融数据 终端。标普信评在中国的业务转向非评级服务，凸显了评级行业科技业务成为新增长点的趋势。(21世 纪经济报道) ...

Group 1 - The event "Breaking the Financing Dilemma of Sci-tech Innovation: A Dual-Driven Approach of Credit Rating and Financial Tools" was successfully held in Guangzhou, integrating resources from credit rating agencies, financial institutions, and industry associations to create a financing service platform for enterprises [1][3] - The event focused on the financing challenges faced by sci-tech enterprises and the characteristics of the biomedical industry, providing systematic solutions through policy interpretation, model breakdown, and practical case simulations [3][5] - The event featured a presentation by Zhang Jiali, Deputy Director of the Credit Rating Committee at Dongfang Jincheng, who introduced a quantitative model for integrating technology, industry, and finance, specifically addressing differentiated credit assessment indicators for the biomedical hard technology sector [3][5] Group 2 - Dongfang Jincheng has actively responded to national policies supporting sci-tech innovation enterprises by developing credit rating methods and models for these companies, contributing to their high-quality development [3][5] - The Guangzhou International Biological Island, a core carrier of the national biological industry base, has over 600 biotechnology-related enterprises established as of now [5] - Dongfang Jincheng has conducted similar events in multiple locations, forming a replicable regional service model, and will continue to leverage its expertise in credit rating to support sci-tech enterprises in accessing capital markets [5]