Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards imposing tariffs on external demand and subsidizing internal demand, marking an important beginning this year [1][7]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward movement after the New Year, given the relatively low funding enthusiasm at the end of last year and the prevailing sentiment of wanting to see market growth [1][8]. - The overall market sentiment is currently restrained, with many investors waiting for the right entry point, suggesting limited potential for significant market corrections in the absence of major unexpected risks [8]. Investment Strategy - The company recommends adopting a mindset focused on "earning performance money rather than expecting valuation money" for mid-term investments, favoring sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric power equipment, and new energy [1][10]. - There is a cautious approach towards high prosperity and high heat sectors that have seen stagnant stock prices, while new industry themes like commercial aerospace are expected to continue to evolve and warrant ongoing attention [1][10]. Performance Analysis - In 2025, the median return for actively managed public funds tracked by CITIC Securities was 28.2%, ranking third over the past decade, with a significant disparity in returns between the top and bottom deciles [2]. - The overall performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2025 can be divided into five phases, with notable fluctuations driven by external factors such as tariff impacts and AI application narratives [3][4]. Structural Market Dynamics - The significant money in the structural bull market in 2025 primarily came from the correction of expected divergences and performance growth, particularly in the context of external and internal demand dynamics [4]. - The report highlights that the market's perception of external demand has shifted from optimism to caution, with geopolitical factors influencing expectations throughout the year [7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated structural adjustments in trade policies, including increased tariffs and stricter export controls, indicate a shift in China's approach to external trade, aiming to balance external and internal demand [7]. - The report emphasizes that the market may struggle to quickly price in these significant structural changes, which could serve as both a source of expected divergence and potential performance growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The travel industry is expected to continue outperforming expectations, with a positive outlook on the travel chain including OTA (Ctrip, Tongcheng), hotels (Atour, Huazhu, Jinjiang, Shoulv), duty-free (China Duty Free), and scenic spots (Emei Mountain, Three Gorges Tourism, Changbai Mountain) [4]. - The competitive landscape has significantly improved, particularly for companies like Huatu Mountain Ding, Caibai Co., and Laopu Gold [4]. - Notable dividend stocks include Sumida, Action Education, and Chongqing Department Store [4]. - The AI+ sector shows promise with companies like Konnate Optical, Fenbi, Tianli International Holdings, Kevin Education, and Doushen Education [4]. - Oversold stocks identified include China Oriental Education, Guoquan, Gaoxin Retail, and Junting Hotel [4]. Industry Updates - In the social service industry, Sanya's duty-free sales reached 163 million yuan on January 1, 2026, marking an 83.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong start for duty-free sales in 2026 [4]. - Ctrip's New Year travel report indicates that domestic scenic spot ticket bookings have increased over fourfold year-on-year, with significant growth in inbound travel bookings, sparking the first consumption boom of 2026 [4]. - Tongcheng Travel's report highlights a surge in travel demand during the New Year holiday, driven by a three-day holiday and the "request 3 days off for 8 days" trend, leading to increased bookings for flights, hotels, and homestays [4]. - Retail sector updates include: - Pang Donglai Group's sales in 2025 reached 23.531 billion yuan, a 39% increase from 16.9 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - Hema's overall revenue growth exceeded 40% in 2025, with its core formats serving over 100 million consumers [4]. - Sam's Club in China surpassed 140 billion yuan in sales in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [4]. Company Announcements - Kid King announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million to 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.72% to 82.06% [4]. - Qingmu Technology's chairman reduced his stake by 464,100 shares, accounting for 0.50% of the company's total share capital, with a reduction price of 59.68 yuan [4].

格隆汇1月4日｜据海口海关统计，元旦假期期间(2026年1月1日至3日)，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品 销售44.2万件，同比增长52.4%；购物人数8.35万人次，同比增长60.6%；购物金额7.12亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The domestic tourism market has shown a strong start for the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel bookings and consumer spending [8] - The report highlights the impressive performance of duty-free sales and the rising popularity of hotel bookings during the holiday period [8] - The report suggests that the industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a focus on companies that demonstrate both certainty and reasonable growth potential [8] Summary by Sections Domestic Travel - Ice and snow tourism remains a top choice, with bookings in Baishan City increasing by 57% year-on-year, and train ticket bookings to Changbai Mountain up by 110% [2] - Mountain scenic spots continue to attract visitors, with ticket bookings for mountain attractions increasing by over 150%, including a 544% increase in orders for Huangshan [2] - New Year concerts have become a significant driver of tourism, with orders in Zhuji increasing over 25 times due to a concert by Wang Leehom [2] Inbound and Outbound Travel - Inbound tourism is experiencing strong growth, with daily inbound and outbound travelers expected to exceed 2.1 million, a 22.4% increase from the previous year [8] - Duty-free shopping in Hainan has seen a surge, with sales reaching 5.05 billion yuan, a 121.5% increase year-on-year [8] - Outbound travel has also surpassed previous years, with a 102.8% increase in travelers to Hong Kong on the first day of the holiday [8] Industry Performance - Duty-free sales have performed exceptionally well, with significant increases in both sales volume and average spending per customer [8] - Hotel bookings have seen a nearly 50% increase in popularity during the holiday period, indicating a recovery in the hospitality sector [8] - Restaurant sales have also surged, with a 4.6% increase in daily sales in Beijing and a 36.5% increase in Nanjing [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huazhu Group, Tongcheng Travel, Jinjiang Hotels, ShouLai Hotels, China Duty Free Group, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Changbai Mountain for potential investment opportunities [8]

据海口海关统计，元旦假期前两日：海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售30.7万件，同比增长48.3%；购 物人数达6.5万人次，同比增长60.9%；购物金额达5.05亿元，同比增长121.5%。 来源：央视新闻 ...

Core Insights - The sales of duty-free shopping in Hainan have significantly increased since the launch of the island-wide customs closure, indicating a growing trend in consumer spending in this sector [1] Sales Performance - On the first day of the New Year holiday, Hainan's duty-free sales reached 148,000 items, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - The number of shoppers during this period was 32,000, which is a 45.8% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The total shopping amount reached 251 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 93.8% [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】2025年12月18日海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作的启动，瞬间激活了国际旅游消费中心的巨大潜力。紧随其后的元旦小长假，成为了 检验政策成效的首个窗口期。据媒体报道，三亚免税城内蜿蜒超过200米的排队人龙、深夜仍灯火通明的购物大厅，以及重现市场的"六位数"酒店房价。 住宿市场，尤其是高端酒店，呈现量价齐升的态势。三亚亚龙湾瑞吉酒店的"7居室海景泳池别墅"在元旦当晚房价高达11.2万元，亚特兰蒂斯酒店的皇家套 房同样超过10万元。业内认识认为，除了封关与节日效应，近期海南密集举办的大型文旅赛事，如跨年电音节、演唱会等，也为拉动客流提供了强劲助力。 这轮消费热潮并未随着假期结束而消退。有在线旅游平台人士透露，从1月份的机票预订趋势看，海口、三亚的热度将持续高位运行。 海南日报报道，据海南省旅游和文化广电体育厅相关负责人介绍，2026年元旦、春节假期期间，海南将举办旅文体活动共计177项，其中旅游促销类活动87 项、文化演艺类活动69项、体育赛事类活动21项，形成"跨年迎新、新春祈福、元宵喜乐"三大热潮。（陈十一） 为迎接跨年客流，中国中免旗下三亚国际免税城罕见地将2025年最后一天的营业时间延长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, surpassing 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest since May 2023 [1] Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to reverse capital flows, including domestic funds waiting to be settled abroad and previously withdrawn foreign funds, potentially leading to a significant capital inflow into Chinese assets [3] - Historical data shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles since 2016, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks generally experienced gains [3] - The current macro environment is characterized by "domestic fundamentals improving + overseas easing," which may enhance the upward elasticity of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3] Group 2: Industry Configuration Logic - Four key logic points for industry configuration during RMB appreciation include: 1. Lower import costs benefiting upstream resource sectors such as coal, steel, and certain chemicals [4] 2. Decreased foreign currency debt costs benefiting industries with significant USD liabilities, including real estate and logistics [4] 3. Increased domestic purchasing power benefiting consumption-driven sectors like cross-border e-commerce and high-end services [4] 4. Attraction of foreign capital back to Chinese assets, with a shift in foreign investment preferences potentially reinforcing current market trends [4] Group 3: Key Sectors to Watch - Focus on sectors benefiting from changing foreign investment preferences and strong domestic consensus, including AI hardware, advanced manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals [5] - Upstream resource sectors benefiting from rising PPI and reduced import costs, such as steel and chemicals [5] - Service and high-end consumption sectors benefiting from improved domestic purchasing power, including duty-free and e-commerce [5] - Industries with reasonable valuations and potential for marginal improvement in 2024, such as aviation, paper, and logistics [5] Group 4: Industry Performance Metrics - The projected net profit growth rates for various sectors by 2026 and Q3 2025 indicate high growth potential in communication electronics, battery manufacturing, and certain chemical sectors [6] - Specific industries like steel and logistics show varying degrees of recovery potential, with some facing challenges while others are positioned for growth [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the service industry, particularly tourism, hospitality, duty-free, local lifestyle, K12 education, and human resources sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Support and Consumer Trends**: National policies are supporting domestic demand expansion, driven by aging populations and the rise of Generation Z, which is fostering experiential and personalized consumption. Key investment areas include wellness tourism and new consumption models [1][2]. - **Tourism Recovery**: The tourism and travel industry is experiencing a sustained recovery, with both domestic and outbound travel rebounding. Promotional activities by local tourism departments and OTA platforms like Meituan and Ctrip are significantly boosting the industry [3][4]. - **OTA Platforms' Role**: OTA platforms hold a crucial position in the tourism value chain, with major players like Meituan and Ctrip enhancing profitability through differentiated competition strategies, including overseas expansion and acquisitions [4][5]. - **Hotel Industry Dynamics**: The hotel sector's performance is closely tied to economic conditions. With demand differentiation and slowing supply, leading companies like Shoulv Jinjiang, Huazhu, and Atour are expected to have pricing power and growth potential [6]. - **Duty-Free Market Growth**: The duty-free industry is gaining attention, with a low base effect leading to positive data trends. The increase in high-value goods is raising average transaction values, and new policies in Hainan are expected to create growth opportunities for companies like China Duty Free, Wangfujing, and Zhuhai Duty Free [7]. - **Local Lifestyle Sector Competition**: The local lifestyle sector, particularly in dining and tea, is highly competitive. Meituan faces challenges from competitors like JD and Alibaba, but remains a key focus for investors despite market value return uncertainties [8][9]. - **K12 Education Sector Outlook**: The K12 education sector is stabilizing with market recovery, benefiting leading companies like TAL Education and New Oriental due to their strong brand, teaching quality, and expansion capabilities [11]. - **Public Service Exam Training and HR Services**: The public service exam training sector is competitive, with rising enrollment numbers. Leading companies are expected to gain market share as they leverage AI applications. In HR services, improved employment rates are driving recruitment demand, particularly in emerging industries like internet and renewable energy [13][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities in Service Consumption**: The service consumption sector, particularly tourism-related industries, OTA, hotels, and duty-free businesses, presents clear investment opportunities. The local lifestyle sector is also expected to see continued competition, with specific opportunities in dining and tea [14]. - **AI Technology Impact**: AI technology is creating structural improvement opportunities in the education and HR sectors, with companies like Huatu and Kory International poised for growth due to their software application potential [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current trends, challenges, and opportunities within the service industry.

Summary of the Conference Call on the Duty-Free Industry Industry Overview - The duty-free market in Japan is influenced by Sino-Japanese relations, with a significant contribution from Chinese tourists, accounting for 23.7% of the total consumption in Japan, which is projected to reach approximately 30 billion RMB in 2024 [1][3] - The new duty-free policies in Hainan and the effects of customs closure have led to a 27% year-on-year increase in duty-free sales in November, with average transaction values rising by 41% [1][4] Key Insights - The growth in Hainan's duty-free market is expected to come from two main customer groups: departing tourists and local residents, alongside the attraction of high-end industries due to low tax policies [1][4] - The number of inbound tourists to Hainan reached 1.26 million by the end of November, a 31% increase year-on-year, supported by a visa-free policy for 86 countries, which is expected to continue attracting foreign visitors [1][5] - If 10% of Hainan's resident population of approximately 10.48 million converts to duty-free purchases, it could create a market potential of over 10 billion RMB [1][6] Competitive Landscape - The recent re-tendering of port channels has introduced a model of minimum rent plus sales commission, encouraging the introduction of popular products such as domestic goods, smartphones, and drones [1][7] - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) has established a joint venture at Shanghai Pudong Airport, which may slightly reduce its operating area and profits by approximately 100-200 million RMB [1][8] - Despite increased competition, CDFG maintains a competitive advantage by securing key segments at major airports [1][7] Future Expectations - The duty-free market is expected to grow further in 2026, driven by the visa-free policy and an expansion in product categories and duty-free store sizes [2][10] - The indoor store segment has seen the opening of 8 new stores, with existing stores undergoing upgrades, indicating a positive trend in the retail environment [2][10] - The online channel, which saw significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to focus more on driving traffic to physical stores rather than competing directly with e-commerce platforms [12] Long-term Industry Outlook - The duty-free market in Hainan is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to seasonal tourism peaks and favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [13] - Major players like China Duty Free Group are expected to see sales growth of 20-30% and profit growth of 10-15% in the coming year, despite increased competition [14] - Wangfujing and Zhuhai Gongbei Port Group are also positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, with a focus on expanding their duty-free operations [14]