12 月港股消费观察：1-2 月流动性改善后港股消费买什么？ 20251215 摘要 服务零售额逆势增长，2025 年累计同比增长 5.4%，超过出口和投资增 速，成为提高居民消费率的关键。服务消费受房地产市场波动影响小， 且不存在消费透支问题，政府可通过构建消费场景有效拉动。 茅台通过控价措施稳定批发价，预计 2026 年批价至少维持在 1,500 元 左右，供给侧显著改善。大众占比提升可弥补部分商务缺失，经销商有 维护批价动力，食品饮料板块或已见底，建议积极布局。 李宁公司处于经营周期底部，营销和产品推新动作频繁，重新获得中国 奥委会合作权益，多条产品线将在 2026 年推出新品。经销商渠道库存 处于低位，实控人持续增持，建议在底部布局。 服装和鞋类制造业订单自 2025 年二季度以来逐步恢复，三季度增速加 快，美国服装零售及批发的库销比处于近三年低位。预计 2025 年三季 度是制造业订单低谷，四季度开始下游将陆续补库。 2026 年鞋服代工龙头企业利润率有望修复，推荐高股息率的龙头公司， 如申洲国际、精苑国际和九星控股。港股新标的乐舒适在非洲卫生用品 市场占据领先地位，收入和净利润复合增长率显著。 Q ...

消费供需四象限策略剖析 20251215 未来一年，国内消费板块的投资机会主要基于国内消费逐渐复苏的大背景。然 而，在完全走出通缩之前，市场仍将面临内卷的环境。以 2021 年的医美板块 为例，当时由于供不应求，吸引了大量企业进入，导致短期内供过于求。因此， 我们需要在策略中避开可能出现业绩和估值双杀的板块，同时布局有潜力转好 的低位板块。 当前国内消费市场面临哪些挑战？ 当前国内消费市场面临几个主要挑战。首先是薪酬结构问题。在 CPI 通缩环境 下，企业普遍通过降本增效和裁员来改善利润空间，中产阶级的薪酬难以得到 提升。其次是杠杆能力问题，有钱人财富集中度提高，而中产阶级因房贷压力 大、收入增长缓慢，难以借贷消费。此外，尽管政府可能推出新房贴息政策， 全球贸易形势不确定性增加，内需的重要性凸显，以应对外贸风险，尤 其是在出口数据不佳和海外 PMI 走弱的情况下，加强内需成为确保 GDP 稳定增长的重要策略。 高端消费市场正在逐步恢复，高端酒店、奢侈游轮及博彩行业在今年三 季度均表现出色，高端商场品牌入驻数量显著增加，验证了高端消费的 恢复趋势。 但对已购房者支持力度有限。 如何理解"2035 年收入倍增计划 ...

消费供需四象限策略剖析 20251215 摘要 "2035 年收入倍增计划"旨在提升人均 GDP 至 2 万美元以上，通过发 展新质生产力和实现共同富裕来推动长期消费增长，例如半导体产业链 和健保制度。 未来一年消费复苏的关键在于财富效应，高净值人群消费意愿增强，但 大众消费者购买力恢复受薪酬结构和杠杆能力限制，需关注政府政策， 如 CPI 预期管理和新房贴息。 高净值人群与大众消费者差距扩大，中产阶级受房贷压力和薪酬停滞影 响，消费贷贴息政策效果有限，需政策干预改善杠杆能力。 2026 年消费市场关注 CPI 预期、转移支付（服务消费）、财富效应 （高端消费），以及房贷贴息等超预期政策，以实现薪资、消费、就业 正循环。 增值税转移至消费税可促使地方政府更支持刺激消费，实现长远发展目 标，短期可能对消费者有压力，但长远有助于地方政府促进本地经济发 展，并通过 PPI 向 CPI 传导刺激内需。 Q&A 如何看待未来一年国内消费板块的投资机会？ 未来一年，国内消费板块的投资机会主要基于国内消费逐渐复苏的大背景。然 而，在完全走出通缩之前，市场仍将面临内卷的环境。以 2021 年的医美板块 为例，当时由于供不应求 ...

如何看 2025 年 11 月消费数据 20251215 摘要 2025 年 11 月社会消费品零售总额增速放缓，商品零售总额增速约为 1%，餐饮收入同比增长 3.2%，环比有所回落，表明消费市场整体增长 动能减弱。 实物商品网上零售额占比达 26%，但增速较前期有所下滑，线下零售业 中便利店和超市保持相对景气，而百货、专业店和品牌专卖店增速较低， 反映线上线下零售业态发展不平衡。 必选消费品如粮油食品保持稳健增长，可选消费品中化妆品和黄金珠宝 受益于促销和金价上涨表现较好，但家电受政策和需求透支影响同比下 降，揭示不同品类消费差异。 汽车社零总额同比下滑 8.3%，但乘用车销量和出口量仍保持增长，新 能源车渗透率维持高位，预示汽车市场结构性变化和出口增长潜力。 免税行业四季度受益于黄金珠宝和手机等大单品拉动，预计海南离岛免 税至少到明年三季度将维持正增长，反映免税消费的增长潜力。 白酒行业处于主动去库存阶段，春节旺季备货启动较晚，但茅台等高端 品牌价格回落对需求形成支撑，预计春节动销有望边际改善，建议逐步 配置白酒板块。 家电行业受国补政策影响销售下滑，但预计明年政策可能延续，建议关 注需求韧性强的白电和两 ...

旅游及酒店板块上涨，君亭酒店涨超6%，西域旅游、三峡旅游涨超2%，带动旅游ETF上涨，年内 涨幅7%。 | CARDE 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | 估算规模 | 管理公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562510 | 旅游ETF | 0.53% | 7.03% | | 6.33亿 华夏基金 | | 159766 | 旅游ETF | 0.53% | 6.81% | 40.11亿 | 富国基金 | 对于旅游行业，申万宏源证券认为，春秋假及雪假政策显著拉动淡季旅游需求，错峰出行成为常 态，景区及旅游企业受益明显。政策组合措施（政府补贴+金融支持+商家优惠）有效激发居民消费意 愿，文旅及冰雪产业投资机会值得关注。同时，高基数景区及优质供给仍稀缺，研学旅游、亲子游及高 频冰雪消费成为市场亮点。 免税：行业景气度边际回升，建议积极布局龙头。25M9离岛免税销售额增幅同比转正，且前三季 度客单水平同比显著回升。海南岛封关在即，免税商的牌照优势仍存，并有望共享自贸港政策红利。免 签扩容和国际航班运力修复助推国际客流增长，市内免税门店加速落地。当前行 ...

截至发稿，珠免集团市值为129亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"一针两千，童颜针年销3亿元"背后：多家关联方注册地"查无此人"，股民 追问"钱呢"！钱氏姐弟几乎"掏空"江苏吴中，公司即将退市 每经AI快讯，珠免集团（SH 600185，收盘价：6.83元）12月15日晚间发布公告称，截至2025年12月15 日，公司对外担保余额为68.77亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产11.65亿元的比例为590%，包括对公 司及其属下控股公司提供的担保；公司为关联方重庆两江新区格力地产有限公司提供反担保余额为7.94 亿元。 2025年1至6月份，珠免集团的营业收入构成为：免税商品销售占比61.4%，房地产占比24.43%，其他占 比12.4%，其他业务占比1.78%。 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in consumer spending, with tourism-related prices showing strong performance. The national CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting a continued recovery in consumer spending [2][7]. - Hotel prices have shown resilience despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with the average hotel room price maintaining positive growth year-on-year. The RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) has only slightly declined, indicating a shift from a volume-driven recovery to a price-stabilized and optimized operational approach [2][8]. - The introduction of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in the service industry is expected to clarify the asset securitization path for various service sectors, including tourism and hospitality. This initiative aims to revitalize existing assets and improve financial structures [2][22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Structure Differentiation and Price Resilience - The hotel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in occupancy rates, but average room prices remain stable, with an ADR (Average Daily Rate) of 388.8 CNY per night in early December, up 4.3% year-on-year [8][10]. - The RevPAR for the week ending December 6, 2025, was 233 CNY per night, showing only a 0.4% decline year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase focused on price stability and operational efficiency [8][10]. 2. REITs Supporting Asset Securitization in the Service Industry - The newly released REITs project industry scope includes cultural tourism infrastructure and commercial facilities, allowing for a clearer path to asset securitization for hotels and tourist attractions [22][23]. - The report emphasizes that the inclusion of high-quality service industry assets in the REITs framework will enhance cash flow stability and operational efficiency, ultimately benefiting the valuation and investment landscape of the sector [22][24]. 3. Valuation of Key Industry Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, including metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [26]. - Notable companies highlighted for investment consideration include tourism sites like Sanxia Tourism and hotels like Shoulu Hotel and Huazhu [26].

对于后市，我们比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以政策表述从"超常规"到"跨周期"解读政策不积极，但 这存在谬误，2025年超常规是相较于2024年尾部风险暴露而言。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明 确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌 回稳"，并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政 策，继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考 虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年 初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资 金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始。 考虑到前期股指的大幅调整、总量政策加码与增量入市环境，当下是布局春季行情的重要窗口。春节前 具备产业趋势的大盘成长有望占优，受益险资"开门红"配置的大盘价值也有望反弹。看好科技/券商保 险/消费。 中信建投：跨年有望迎来新一波行情 从9月初至12月初，AH两地市场经历了较长时间的调整，投资者情绪 ...

Group 1: Retail and Service Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the hotel and duty-free sectors, suggesting that the hotel prices have gradually increased since the second half of this year, with a recommendation to focus on hotel stocks such as Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels [6][12][17] - Duty-free sales are showing signs of bottoming out, with new policies implemented to expand the range of duty-free products and eligible consumers, leading to a significant increase in sales figures [12][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies, particularly in the context of the ice and snow economy, silver-haired economy, and sports events, recommending investments in companies like Changbai Mountain and Sanchuan Tourism [26][28][29] Group 2: AI Applications in Various Industries - The report discusses the acceleration of AI applications in the education and human resources sectors, with companies like Keri International and Beijing Renli leveraging AI to enhance recruitment efficiency [39][44] - AI's integration into 3D printing and e-commerce is highlighted, with a focus on companies like Huina Technology and Xiaogoods City, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions through full-chain penetration [6][39] - The report notes that AI applications are driving significant changes in operational efficiency and commercial opportunities across various sectors, particularly in human resources [39][44] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with domestic brands showing strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [6][32] - The report identifies key players in the beauty sector, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shanghai Jahwa, while also suggesting a focus on high-growth segments within the industry [6][32] - The medical beauty sector is under pressure but is seeing consolidation and innovation, with recommendations for companies like Jinbo Biological and Kedi-B [6][32] Group 4: Jewelry and Precious Metals - The jewelry sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on overseas expansion as a second growth curve, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-value jewelry products and the impact of new tax regulations on the market dynamics [6][32] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is witnessing a shift, with a focus on leading brands expanding their store counts and product categories, particularly in the tea and dining segments [32][38] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the restaurant industry, noting the resilience of Western fast food and the growth of Chinese casual dining brands [32][38]