证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续突破历 史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 金 衡盎 司 ， SLV 白 银 ETF 持仓增加 544,084.20 盎司。 周三，美国 12 月成屋签约销售指数月率 -9.3%，预期 0.4%，前值 3.30%。美国 10 月营建支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.10%。 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 ...

来源：湘财证券股份有限公司 核心要点： 2026 年宏观短周期和中周期有望形成向上共振格局我们预判2026 年宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底 部反弹的阶段，有望形成向上共振格局。具体原因有：一是海外方面，中美贸易冲突缓和，有助于减轻 经济下行压力。二是"十五五"规划即将落地，新质生产力依然是重要发展方向，随着人工智能等科技领 域的快速发展，将有效推动我国产业升级。 三是2025 年12 月中央经济工作会议定调2026 年宏观政策为继续实施更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的 货币政策；2026 年1 月以来，人民银行先行推出两方面的八项政策措施，结合此前发改委在"两新"领域 的提前发力以及5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具支持项目在2025 年第四季度落地，预期都将有助于推动 2026 年一季度宏观经济的持续改善。 2026 年2 月市场热点或延续1 月的科技、有色等方向在2017 年至2025 年的2 月份涨幅前10 的二级行业 合计有56 个，相对分散，但出现3 次以上的二级行业只有通信设备、小金属、软件开发、能源金属等四 个行业。这与2026 年1 月份涨幅居前的科技和"反内卷"相关的有色金属板块重叠度较高。且 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]

Core Viewpoint - Baotai Co., Ltd. is actively pursuing a convertible bond issuance to raise up to 3.5 billion yuan for projects focused on titanium resource recycling and smart forging production lines, while maintaining compliance with regulatory requirements [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Baotai's stock closed at 41.16 yuan, a 6.91% increase from the previous week's 38.5 yuan [1] - The stock reached a peak of 41.39 yuan and a low of 37.81 yuan during the week [1] - The company's current market capitalization is 19.665 billion yuan, ranking 16th out of 24 in the small metals sector and 1114th out of 5182 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Fundraising and Regulatory Compliance - Baotai Co., Ltd. plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 3.5 billion yuan, focusing on titanium resource recycling, smart forging production line construction, and working capital supplementation [2][3] - The company has received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding the bond issuance, and responses have been provided in collaboration with relevant intermediaries [2] - A site inspection by Western Securities confirmed that Baotai has established a management method for the use of raised funds, with no violations found, although some projects are delayed [1][3]

证券之星消息，1月23日小金属板块较上一交易日上涨3.28%，西部材料领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600259 | 中稀有色 | 78.76 | -1.30% | 13.92万 | 10.89亿 | | 000831 | 中国稀土 | 55.49 | 0.05% | 52.69万 | 29.06亿 | | 002978 | 安宁股份 | 39.14 | 0.51% | 11.51万 | 4.49亿 | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 50.46 | 0.72% | - 97.15万 | 48.80亿 | | 688750 | 金天钛业 | 21.24 | 1.48% | 10.53万 | 2.23亿 | | 600456 | 宝钛股份 | 41.16 | 2.06% | 22.82万 | 9.33亿 | | 600281 | 华阳新材 | ...

| | 板块名称 涨跌幅(%) 板块资金流向 | | 净流入最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 光伏设备 | 9.14 | 88.42亿元 | 隆基绿能 | | 能源金属 | 5.21 | 29.63亿元 | 赣锋锂业 | | 光学光电子 | 2.45 | 27.43亿元 | 乾照光电 | | 航天航空 | 1.32 | 24.75亿元 | 航天电子 | | 软件开发 | 1.85 | 22.79亿元 | 四维图新 | | 风电设备 | 3.07 | 22.30亿元 | 金风科技 | 据交易所数据显示，截至1月23日收盘，大盘主力资金净流出224.99亿元。主力资金流入前十大板块分别为： 光伏设备（88.42亿元）、 能源金属（29.63亿 元）、 光学光电子（27.43亿元）、航天航空（24.75亿元）、 软件开发（22.79亿元）、 风电设备（22.30亿元）、 有色金属（21.76亿元）、电池（18.49亿 元）、文化 传媒（18.24亿元）、小金属（17.79亿元）。 | 有色金属 | 3.74 | 21.76亿元 | 铜陵有色 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of key metals, highlighting that supply control and application demand in critical fields like technology and military are crucial for pricing [16][20][21] - The report identifies significant supply disruptions in tin due to slow recovery in Myanmar and regulatory changes in Indonesia, leading to a persistent tight supply situation [26][35][40] - The report notes that tungsten is a backbone of high-end manufacturing, with supply tightening driving significant price increases, supported by steady demand from sectors like photovoltaics and military applications [9][16][21] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of AI technology on the development of electronic new materials, indicating that advancements in AI will drive demand for upgraded materials to meet higher performance requirements [9][10][12] - The report recommends investing in domestic strategic resource sectors and electronic new materials benefiting from AI technology, highlighting specific companies such as Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiyegongsi, and others [13][21] - The report outlines the tightening supply of antimony and the potential for price convergence due to the relaxation of export controls, which may benefit domestic demand [9][10][12]

Group 1 - The small metal sector increased by 0.06% on January 22, with Western Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Key stocks in the small metal sector showed varied performance, with Western Materials rising by 10.00% to a closing price of 39.60 [1] Group 2 - The small metal sector experienced a net outflow of 562 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 141 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the small metal sector varied, with Western Materials achieving a turnover of 1.884 billion yuan [1][2] - The stock performance of several companies showed declines, with Haotong Technology down by 3.93% and Xianglu Tungsten down by 3.63% [2] Group 3 - Western Materials had a net inflow of 273 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 177 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks included China Rare Earth with a net inflow of 210 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 157 million yuan from retail investors [3] - The overall trend indicated a mixed sentiment among different investor types within the small metal sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable amounts withdrawn from companies across different industries, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Sanhua Intelligent Control experienced a capital outflow of 1.402 billion, with a decline of 2.73% in stock price [2] - Tongfu Microelectronics saw a capital outflow of 1.309 billion, with a decrease of 1.55% [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology reported a capital outflow of 1.143 billion, with a drop of 2.8% [2] - Zhaoyi Innovation also faced a capital outflow of 1.143 billion, with a decline of 1.93% [2] - Changdian Technology had a significant outflow of 861 million, with a sharp decrease of 6.25% [2] Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Hunan Silver experienced a capital outflow of 836 million, but its stock price increased by 6.67% [2] - Huada Technology saw an outflow of 825 million, with a decline of 3.1% [2] - Yango Technology faced a capital outflow of 723 million, with a significant drop of 6.37% [2] - Sungrow Power Supply had an outflow of 720 million, with a decrease of 1.16% [2] - TBEA reported a capital outflow of 653 million, with a decline of 2.5% [2] Group 3: Additional Stocks with Capital Outflows - Baiwei Storage experienced a capital outflow of 588 million, with a slight decrease of 0.79% [2] - Nanda Optoelectronics saw an outflow of 577 million, with a decline of 4.25% [3] - Lens Technology faced a capital outflow of 565 million, with a decrease of 2.09% [3] - Zijin Mining reported an outflow of 556 million, with a decline of 2.31% [3] - EVE Energy experienced a capital outflow of 555 million, with a drop of 2.99% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Western Materials (SZ002149) reached its daily limit up, with a price of 39.6 yuan, a 10% increase, and a total market capitalization of 19.333 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The reasons for the stock price surge include significant asset restructuring, approval of related party transactions, and governance structure optimization. The company announced that the restructuring of its subsidiary, Filter, has entered a substantial audit phase, which may lead to business integration opportunities [2] - The 2026 annual related party transaction proposal was approved with a high consent rate of 99.19%, and the expected total amount of related transactions for 2026 is projected to increase by 51.6% year-on-year, indicating an expectation of business scale expansion [2] - The company has canceled its supervisory board and improved its profit distribution mechanism, reflecting an enhancement in governance standards. Multiple announcements confirming normal operations have alleviated market concerns, which is beneficial for stabilizing investor confidence [2] - In terms of industry context, the company operates in the small metals sector, which has extensive applications in critical fields such as military and nuclear power. The demand for small metal materials may increase with the development of related industries [2] - Recent trading data shows that institutional investors were net buyers on January 13, 2026, although foreign capital was net selling on January 20. However, the high participation of speculative funds indicates significant market interest [2] - The technical aspect suggests high market activity, as indicated by frequent appearances on the trading leaderboard and substantial trading volume, which may contribute to the stock price limit up [2]