猪价下行趋势依然延续 图片来源：摄图网 近日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）创始人王宁家族身家超越牧原股份（002714）的秦英林家族，登顶"河南新首富"。 原因除了泡泡玛特风光无限、股价蹭蹭上涨以外，也与牧原股份股价踌躇不前有关，这背后反映的是两个行业景气度的冰火两重天，前者因核心IP Labubu在全球范围内火热而备受瞩目，后者则依然受制于生猪价格不断下行。 牧原与泡泡玛特2024年初以来的股价走势及区间涨幅对比 来源：Choice数据 此外，牧原股份5月底还递交了H股上市申请的资料，距离港股上市又近了一步。 01 2022年至2024年，牧原股份收入分别为1248.26亿元，1108.61亿元、1379.47亿元，净利润分别为149.33亿元、-41.68亿元、189.25亿元。 2025年一季度，牧原股份实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比+37.26%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润44.91亿元，归母扣非净利润为45.09亿元，同比均大 幅扭亏为盈。 可以看出，牧原股份的业绩波动较大。这和生猪养殖行业作为强周期行业有关。 2021年中至最新全国大中城市生猪出场价格走势 来源：Wind 即使抛开2019 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has submitted an application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise at least $1 billion, which raises questions about the company's financial needs and future growth strategies [1][26]. Company Overview - Founded by Qin Yinglin, Muyuan Foods started with 22 pigs and has grown into a leading player in the pig farming industry, often referred to as the "pig king" [2]. - Despite a decline in the "pig king" status in recent years, the company's move to list on the Hong Kong market presents new opportunities and challenges for its development [2]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is characterized by a cyclical pattern known as the "pig cycle," which involves fluctuations in prices and production levels over a four-year period [3]. - This cycle leads to significant volatility, causing many companies to struggle with profitability during downturns [3]. Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods has experienced a significant rebound in its financial performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 137.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, a dramatic turnaround from a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 519.42% increase [6][10]. - The company's pig output surged from 40.26 million heads in 2021 to 71.60 million heads in 2024, making it the largest pig farming enterprise globally [7][8]. Market Position - Muyuan Foods holds a 5.6% share of the global market and a 10.2% share in the domestic market, contributing to an increase in industry concentration [8]. - The company's reliance on pig farming is evident, as this segment accounts for over 90% of its revenue, with revenues from pig farming reaching 119.74 billion yuan in 2022, 108.22 billion yuan in 2023, and 136.23 billion yuan in 2024 [10]. Cost Structure - Feed costs have consistently represented around 60% of total costs, limiting the company's ability to control expenses [12]. - Labor costs and depreciation have been rising, with employee salaries increasing by 28% despite a 5% reduction in workforce, and depreciation expenses rising by 27% over three years [13][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to use part of the $1 billion raised from the IPO to enhance its liquidity and support its supply chain development in overseas markets [19]. - Muyuan Foods aims to leverage its advanced farming technologies and disease prevention systems to improve efficiency and productivity in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [20]. Global Market Outlook - The global pig farming market is expected to grow steadily from $1.5 trillion in 2025 to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with China maintaining a significant share [15]. - Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, presents substantial growth potential due to its high demand for pork and low industry concentration [15][17]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, with total liabilities reaching 110.11 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.68% [10]. - The pig farming industry is also susceptible to disease outbreaks, which can severely impact production and market stability [21][22]. Conclusion - Muyuan Foods' IPO is a strategic move to navigate current challenges and position itself for future growth in the global pig farming industry, testing its capabilities in capital management and risk control [26].

证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-10 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2682.22 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2838.04 | | 52 周最低 | | 2110.64 | 行业相对指数表现 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生猪供应压力大，政策释放稳猪价信 号》 - 2025.06.03 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.5.30-2025.06.08） 生猪供应压力大，价格继续调整 ⚫ 行情回顾：顺势上涨 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 农林牧渔（申万）行业指数涨 0.91%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨 幅 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3399.77, up 0.43%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10250.14, up 0.65% [2][6] - The overall market sentiment improved, with over 4100 stocks rising, particularly in the pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors [8][9] Economic Indicators - In May, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [15][16] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May fell by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a slight deflationary trend [17][18] Industry Dynamics - Canalys forecasts that the penetration rate of AI smartphones will reach 34% by 2025, driven by advancements in chip capabilities and model efficiency [26] - The Ministry of Transport reported that in May 2025, urban rail transit systems across 54 cities operated 326 lines, with a total operational mileage of 10,978.3 kilometers and a passenger volume of 2.87 billion [28][29] Company Updates - Bohui Innovation (300318.SZ) received a medical device registration certificate for its HPV genotyping test kit, enhancing its product portfolio and market competitiveness [34] - Haizhi Science (002653.SZ) obtained an IND application acceptance notice for its innovative drug HSK47977, aimed at lymphoma treatment, indicating significant development potential [36] - Jingji Zhino (000048.SZ) reported a 8.74% year-on-year decline in pig sales in May, while Shennong Group (605296.SH) saw a 24% increase in the same period [37][39] - Yisheng Co. (002458.SZ) experienced an 11.21% decline in sales revenue from white feather broiler chicks in May, despite a 11.35% increase in sales volume [41][42]

Company Overview - Shandong Bangji Technology Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% equity of six companies, including Shandong Beixi Agricultural Co., Ltd. and Ruidong Agricultural (Shandong) Co., Ltd., along with 80% of the equity of Paistong Livestock Technology Consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [1] - The company was established in April 2007 and is based in Zibo High-tech Zone, specializing in providing professional products for modern breeding farms, including pig premix, concentrated feed, and complete feed [1] Financial Performance - In the years 2022 to 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.658 billion, 1.647 billion, and 2.542 billion respectively, while net profits were 120 million, 83.89 million, and 50.13 million respectively [1] - The company has experienced a situation of "increased revenue but decreased profit" in recent years, attributed to low capacity utilization rates and increased fixed costs due to the gradual production of fundraising projects [1] Industry Context - The feed industry is maturing, with large feed companies extending their industrial chains through alliances and mergers, while some companies are penetrating downstream into the breeding industry [2] - The company is adapting to industry changes by adjusting its business strategy and expanding into new areas, including the acquisition of other feed companies [2] Strategic Moves - The planned acquisition marks the company's entry into the pig fattening industry, with the target company, Ruidong Agricultural, aiming to build modern American-style breeding bases with significant investment [3] - The company has also adjusted its fundraising projects to acquire stakes in other feed companies, indicating a strategic shift towards vertical integration [2] Recent Performance - In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved revenues of 1.076 billion, a year-on-year increase of 160.84%, and a net profit of 28 million, up 37.71%, indicating a recovery in performance [3] - The success of the upcoming acquisition, especially following the recovery of pig prices, will be crucial for the company's revenue growth [3]

Core Points - The company reported a pig sales volume of 156,200 heads in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.44% and a month-on-month increase of 17.63% [1] - As of the end of May 2025, the company's pig inventory stood at 536,400 heads, which is a year-on-year increase of 22.56%, a slight decrease of 0.59% compared to the end of April 2025, and an increase of 4.57% compared to the end of December 2024 [1] - The company is actively optimizing its pig farming capacity by adjusting its farming layout, scale, and breed structure, while continuing to focus on cost reduction and resource concentration to develop advantageous capacity [1] Summary of Business Data - The pig sales volume for May 2025 was 156,200 heads, with a year-on-year increase of 9.44% and a month-on-month increase of 17.63% [1] - The pig inventory at the end of May 2025 was 536,400 heads, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.56%, a decrease of 0.59% from April 2025, and an increase of 4.57% from December 2024 [1] - The company emphasizes a strategy of "stability first and continuous cost reduction" to achieve practical business development goals [1]

债券代码：113648 债券简称：巨星转债 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 2025年5月养殖业务销售情况简报 证券代码：603477 证券简称：巨星农牧 公告编号：2025-052 ■ 三、特别说明与风险提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将2025年5月养殖业务销售情况披露如下： 一、2025年5月养殖业务销售情况 ■ 注：2025年5月，公司销售生猪32.80万头，其中商品猪销售31.83万头、仔猪销售0.97万头，生猪销售收 入5.79亿元。 二、2025年1至5月养殖业务销售情况 1、上述披露信息仅包含公司养殖业务的生猪销售情况，不包括其他业务和其他产品。 2、上述销售数据来源于公司内部统计，未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异，上述销 售数据仅作为阶段性数据供投资者参考。因四舍五入，以上数据可能存在尾差。商品猪销价为当月销售 均价。 3、生猪市场价格的大幅波动（下降或上升）与动物疫病是生猪养殖行业的系统性风险，对任何一家生 猪养殖生产者来讲都是客观 ...

如何看待生猪养殖行业最新变化？20250609 摘要 年后屠宰量增加主要源于蛋白产品替代、鲜冻转换以及屠宰集中度提高， 规模化定点屠宰场受益于养殖集中度和产业链发展，屠宰量显著增长， 而小型屠宰点规模下降。 养殖企业提高出栏体重旨在降低成本、提高栏舍利用率，并满足市场对 大体重猪的需求。大规模换种也使得 130 公斤左右的猪更具养殖效益， 企业虽曾尝试降体重，但因大体重猪畅销而维持或提升出栏体重。 政策旨在提升猪价，大型养殖公司逐步降低出栏量和体重，并执行二次 育肥禁令以去化库存。但社会养殖群体盲目性可能导致投机行为，需大 型公司带头执行政策。 二次育肥限制政策旨在阻断疫情传播和非法检疫，集团公司已禁止向二 次育肥出售饲养票，但仍存在漏洞。山东等地已开始查处违法行为，但 政策执行效果仍待观察。 部分养殖公司已开始控制母猪产能，禁止增量并逐步减少数量，但具体 执行效果仍需观察。此前，由于批次化生产模式，削减母猪产能成本较 高。 Q&A 三四月份的整体行情确实比预期好很多，主要原因有几个方面。首先是节前的 悲观预期导致了超卖现象，加上部分地区流行性腹泻和其他小型动物疫病，使 得节前体重超卖严重。这不仅是结构性存栏 ...

农林牧渔 行业研究/行业周报 猪价继续下探，看好水产料投资机会 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250603-0606） 本周（2025/6/3-6/6）农林牧渔板块跑赢大盘 0.03 个百分点。本周申万 农林牧渔指数收于 2,682.22，周上涨 0.91%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.03 个百分点。在 31 个申万一级行业中，农业板块周涨跌幅排名第 20 位。 从农林牧渔子板块来看，本周（2025/6/3-6/6）渔业板块上涨 1.34%， 表现最佳；其次，种植业、饲料、农产品加工、养殖业板块本周分别 上涨 1.23%、1.15%、1.10%、0.90%；动物保健板块本周下跌 1.51%。 行业动态跟踪： 【生猪养殖】加速降重出栏，猪价继续下探。伴随肥标价差倒挂，近 期规模猪企进入主动降重去库存阶段，市场供给偏宽松，需求端相对 平稳，猪价持续下探，养殖利润进一步收窄。截止 2025 年 6 月 6 日， 全国生猪均价 14.05 元/公斤，周环比下跌 2.43%，较 2024 年同期下跌 23.89%；自繁自养利润为 33.83 元/头，周环比下降 1.82 元/头，外购 仔猪养殖利润为-120.80 元/头 ...

证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-072 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 5 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 5 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 2025 年 5 月，公司生猪销售量 15.62 万头，同比增加 9.44%，较 2025 年 4 月增加 17.63%。 2025 年 5 月末，公司生猪存栏 53.64 万头，同比增加 22.56%，较 2025 年 4 月末减少 0.59%，较 2024 年 12 月末增加 4.57%。 公司积极推动生猪养殖产能优化工作，合理调整养殖布局、规模与品种结构， 后续将继续坚持"稳字当头、持续降本"的策略，集中资源发展优势产能，务实 经营发展目标，切实推进降本工作。 二、其他说明 本次披露的 2025 年 5 月养殖经营数据来自公司内部统计，未经审计，仅供 投资者及 ...