作为券商月度策略的精华，券商金股在1月份展现了亮眼的超额收益能力，最牛金股单月大涨约99%。 进入2月，新一期券商金股名单陆续出炉，主要集中在电子、机械设备、有色金属等行业。个股方面，海光信息、腾讯控股、中国太保、紫金矿业的人气最 高。 展望2月，券商普遍认为，春季行情趋势仍在延续，春节之前市场可能震荡，科技成长、顺周期板块受到青睐。还有券商建议，投资者在春节持股过节。 1月最牛金股大涨近99% 回顾1月金股表现，1月涨幅居前的金股集中在计算机、电子、化工、电力设备、有色金属等板块。 每市APP显示，由华龙整体推荐的卓易信息涨幅高达98.94%，成为1月最牛金股。排名第二的是由国联民生证券推荐的宏景科技，单月涨幅达68.75%，国新 证券推荐的盛晖集成则排名第三，1月上涨了61.59%。 1月份涨幅超50%的还包括华峰测控（太平洋证券推荐）、华虹半导体（兴业证券推荐）、金安国纪（东莞证券推荐）、东方铁塔（西部证券推荐）、迈为 股份（东吴证券、华源证券推荐）等等。此外，紫金黄金国际（东北证券推荐）、华锡有色（西南证券推荐）、兆易创新（中航证券、中国银河证券推 荐）1月涨超45%。 券商金股组合也在1月展现了亮眼 ...

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

私募开年密集调研 机构2026年进攻方向，或可从其1月调研路径窥得端倪。据私募排排网统计，1月有近660家私募参与A 股调研活动，合计调研频次超1700次。分行业来看，计算机、机械设备、医药生物和电子等板块备受关 注。在一些业内人士看来，尽管2025年科技板块整体涨幅显著，但从产业趋势和企业盈利情况来看，现 在远未行至"泡沫阶段"，尤其是半导体和AI应用值得重点挖掘。 私募排排网最新统计数据显示，2026年1月共有659家私募参与A股公司调研活动，覆盖了28个申万一级 行业中的332只标的，合计调研频次达1719次。 1月16日，丹羿投资创始人朱亮则调研了通富微电。据公开资料，通富微电是集成电路封装测试服务提 供商，开源证券研究报告分析称，算力产业已开启"军备竞赛"，国产算力跨越式发展的背景下，本土AI 算力芯片蓬勃发展，相关产业链迎来发展窗口，通富微电有望深度受益。 AI基建与应用受关注 私募机构认为，在AI产业高速发展的过程中，机会将持续涌现，科技仍将是2026年不可忽视的投资主 线之一。 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉分析称，作为AI产业的基建，半导体设备领域值得关注。具体来看，当前AI行 业的发展逻辑已发生转变 ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）当前，A股上市公司2025年业绩披露已经进入密集窗口期，数据显示，仅1月30日一天，就有646家上市公司披露2025年业绩 预告。截至1月31日，A股5400多家上市公司中，已经有近3000家披露了2025年业绩预告。上市企业密集发布"成绩单"，其中"含金量"如何？ 在已披露业绩预告的上市公司中，共有1092家公司业绩预喜，占比为37%。其中，1046家公司归母净利润同比增速下限超过50%，603家同比增速下限超 100%。所谓"同比增速下限"，是指公司在业绩预告中给出的最低增长预期。 具体来看，AI产业趋势的积极影响进一步向产业链扩散：半导体板块全年盈利在低基数背景下实现大幅增长，同比增长超300%。通信板块全年盈利同比增 长超200%，元件板块同比增长约140%，电子板块同比增长近70%。 中国银河证券首席策略分析师 杨超：半导体产业链业绩表现突出，随着人工智能的发展，AI服务器与数据中心建设提速，端侧设备增长拉动了配套芯片需 求。国内关键技术突破加快，龙头企业盈利逐步兑现。 受益于我国制造业优势及出口订单增长等因素，汽车板块预喜比例超50%，全年盈利同比增长约140%，机械设 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a significant upward trend in January 2026, with major indices rising, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8% [5][10] - Market trading volume increased significantly, with a record high of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026, reflecting a recovery in investor sentiment [10][18] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with non-ferrous metals and media leading gains, while banking and home appliances lagged behind [15][18] Group 2 - The report suggests maintaining a "growth + value" strategy in the Hong Kong stock market, as the overall trend is positive due to earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and low valuations [3][4] - The report emphasizes that small-cap stocks typically outperform during the spring market, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investors [71][88] - Key sectors to focus on include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications, which are expected to perform well in February 2026 [3][4][73] Group 3 - The spring market is anticipated to be characterized by a focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical data indicating that these sectors often perform well during this period [73][88] - The report highlights that the consumer sector may receive policy support, as the government emphasizes domestic demand and market expansion [88][89] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 show improvement across various industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals, steel, and media, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [61][81]

Group 1 - The report highlights an increase in risk disturbances and potential market volatility due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which may trigger new tightening expectations [2][15][16] - The report indicates a slight contraction in micro liquidity, with domestic public fund equity positions estimated to decline, and seasonal demand for funds increasing as the Spring Festival approaches [3][24] - The report notes that while export performance remains strong, domestic demand continues to face challenges, with January exports expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year, while CPI and PPI are projected at 0.3% and -1.9% respectively [25][33] Group 2 - The report suggests a shift in industry allocation towards stability and certainty, reducing exposure to elastic assets and focusing on sectors with predictable performance [4][39] - The first main investment theme is the seasonal opportunity in infrastructure construction, emphasizing ten high-odds and high-win-rate sub-sectors, with a focus on an 18-stock portfolio of advantageous infrastructure companies [4][41] - The second main theme involves sectors with medium to long-term price increase trends, particularly storage, chemicals, and machinery, which are expected to benefit from improving demand and supply dynamics [6][40] - The AI industry chain remains a core long-term focus for 2026, although it may enter a phase of healthy adjustment in the short term, with potential cooling in previously overheated sectors like non-ferrous metals and military industry [6][40]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in January 2026, with major indices showing gains, particularly the ChiNext 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8% [6][12][22] - The market is expected to enter a short-term correction phase before the Spring Festival, influenced by tightening liquidity and reduced trading enthusiasm among investors [4][38] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market typically performs better in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of gains compared to less than 45% before the holiday [38][40] Group 2 - In the upcoming spring market, small-cap stocks are anticipated to outperform, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investor capital [52][54] - The focus should be on growth and cyclical sectors, with industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications expected to perform well in February [2][54] - The Hong Kong market is advised to adopt a "growth + value" strategy, benefiting from earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and supportive policies [2][65] Group 3 - The spring market is characterized by a dual focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical trends showing that both categories often perform well during this period [54][61] - The technology sector, particularly AI and commercial aerospace, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with potential catalysts expected to drive performance [61][64] - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting from being driven by capital to being driven by earnings, indicating a transition towards long-term value investing [2][65]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in February, with a potential for stronger performance post-Spring Festival due to policy catalysts and the upcoming Two Sessions [2][3][26] - The focus will shift towards cyclical price increases and AI applications, particularly in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and steel [2][3][26] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Recommended sectors include cyclical and technology areas, with a focus on high-growth industries such as electronics (semiconductors), media (advertising, gaming, film), machinery (automation, engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic), basic chemicals, and social services [4][6][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in construction and infrastructure projects [3][4][21] Liquidity and Capital Supply - February is anticipated to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to flow in before the Spring Festival and financing likely to rebound afterward [5][19] - Despite a positive trend in resident capital inflows, significant reductions in ETF holdings have offset these inflows, leading to a challenging trading environment [5][19] Economic and Earnings Trends - The report highlights a recovery in industrial profits, with a positive outlook for sectors experiencing price increases, such as industrial metals and AI-driven technology [6][18] - The earnings growth forecast remains focused on high-growth areas, particularly those benefiting from cyclical price increases and export advantages in mid-to-high-end manufacturing [6][18][21]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "stronger than the market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - Major technology and new energy companies are entering the nuclear power sector, creating a diversified new landscape for nuclear energy in China. Companies like Alibaba and Geely are investing in coastal nuclear power projects, focusing on stable energy to support computing power demands [3][4]. - The policy environment is increasingly favorable for private investment in nuclear power, with the proportion of private capital expected to rise to 10% by 2024. This trend is supported by the integration of AI and nuclear energy, which is anticipated to deepen as the demand for computing power grows [4]. - Small Modular Reactors (SMR) are highlighted as a key solution to meet the energy demands of AI, with significant interest from technology giants. Companies are developing tailored energy solutions for data centers using SMR technology [5]. Company Summaries - **Jingye Intelligent**: Plans to establish a subsidiary focused on SMR technology for AI data center power supply [6]. - **Jia Electric**: Its main helium fan is the only power device for the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor's primary circuit, leading in the nuclear power business segment [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: Provides critical components for the ITER project, focusing on filter and cladding systems [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers the entire nuclear energy supply chain from upstream nuclear fuel systems to downstream spent fuel processing [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Produces high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products and has developed domestic alternatives for new fuel transport containers [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and fusion reactors [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [6].