Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 5%, from HKD 365 to HKD 382, due to a 15% increase in the 2025 net profit forecast, while maintaining a 32x implied P/E ratio for 2026, with an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The estimated sales for Pop Mart this year are RMB 34.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 167%, with a projected net profit of RMB 11.1 billion, indicating a 257% year-on-year growth [1] - For next year, sales are expected to reach RMB 45 billion, which corresponds to a 30% year-on-year increase, and net profit is forecasted at RMB 14.6 billion, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth [1] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively, driven by increased revenue expectations from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Sales in Greater China are projected to be RMB 17.3 billion this year, indicating a 96% year-on-year increase, with monthly store productivity reaching RMB 1.7 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - Online sales are expected to increase from 35% in the first half of the year to 40% in the second half [1] - Sales in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets are estimated at approximately RMB 8 billion, with monthly store productivity rising from RMB 3.8 million in the first half to between RMB 5 million and RMB 5.5 million in the second half [2] - The European region is projected to have sales of RMB 1.4 billion [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The estimated gross margin for 2025 is 71.6%, with Greater China at 68% and overseas markets at 75% [2] - The core operating profit margin for the second half of the year is expected to be 43%, compared to 41.6% in the first half [2] - The net profit margin for the second half of the year is anticipated to be lower than that of the first half [2]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，将泡泡玛特(09992)目标价上调5%，从365港元升至382港 元，因将2025年净利润预测上调15%，2026年的隐含目标市盈率维持32倍不变，评级增持。 该行已重建泡泡玛特模型驱动因素，预估今年销售额为348亿元人民币(下同)，同比增167%;净利润料 111亿元，同比增257%。该行又预估泡泡玛特明年销售额为450亿元，相当于同比增30%;净利润146亿 元，意味同比增31%。 大摩分别将公司2025至2027年的净利润预测上调15%、5%、4%，主要受大中华区及海外市场收入预测 上调以及营运费用比率降低推动。其中大中华区今年销售额为173亿元人民币(意味同比增96%)。其上半 年门市生产力达每月170万元人民币，同比翻倍。假设下半年维持相似水平，尽管呈有利季节性因素。 线上销售占比从上半年35%增至下半年40%。 亚太及美洲区各市场销售额约80亿元，上半年门市生产力约每月380万元，下半年增至约500至550万 元。线上销售方面，大摩假设下半年与上半年各自的销售占比相似。欧洲区域，大摩则预估销售额为14 亿元。该行预估其2025年毛利率为71.6%，大中华区 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its model for Pop Mart, projecting a sales revenue of 34.8 billion yuan for this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% [1] - The net profit is expected to reach 11.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 257% [1] Sales and Profit Forecast - For next year, sales are projected to be 45 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 30% [1] - The net profit for next year is anticipated to be 14.6 billion yuan, which means a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] Long-term Profit Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively [1] - This adjustment is primarily driven by increased revenue expectations from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 365 HKD to 382 HKD [1] - The rating for the company has been maintained at "Overweight" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 11 billion and 14.1 billion respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 35 and 27 times for those years, and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential [1] Group 1 - The company has enhanced its product launch capabilities and IP potential through improved planning and collaboration between artists and product teams, leading to a dynamic balance of SKU numbers and the introduction of new product categories such as plush toys, accessories, desserts, clothing, and building blocks, with plans to explore small appliances [2] - The company has increased its plush production capacity by approximately 10 times since the beginning of the year, reaching 30 million pieces per month, and has optimized the consumer purchasing experience, indicating a better understanding of market demand and improved supply chain flexibility [3] Group 2 - The overseas market for the company is experiencing rapid growth, with successful store openings such as the ICONSIAM flagship store in Thailand, and a strong demand in the US leading to an increase in online sales, although operational details in overseas markets still require refinement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the adjusted net profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992) at 11 billion and 14.1 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 35 and 27 times for those years, with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% [1] Group 1 - The company has enhanced its product launch capabilities and IP potential through a more mature product planning process, leading to an increase in the frequency of hot-selling products and a dynamic balance of SKU numbers [2] - The plush category continues to empower more IPs and has shown strong customer acquisition effects in new overseas markets, while the company is also exploring new categories such as small home appliances to extend IP boundaries and consumption scenarios [2] Group 2 - The company's plush production capacity has increased approximately tenfold since the beginning of the year, reaching 30 million pieces per month, which has improved the overall consumer purchasing experience [3] - The company is expected to enhance its ability to match supply and demand with a deeper understanding of market needs and optimized supply chain arrangements [3] Group 3 - The overseas market for Pop Mart is experiencing rapid growth, with the flagship store in Thailand performing well and no negative impact on other stores, while the U.S. is seeing a faster demand growth than store openings [4] - There are still areas for operational refinement in overseas markets, such as store models and online membership systems, but the company's retail capabilities are expected to support positive same-store performance following rapid expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has become a focal point in 2023, with several companies reporting impressive mid-year performance, particularly the "three golden flowers": Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of 4.682 billion yuan, up 385.6%. The plush toy category was a significant driver, generating 6.139 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 1276.2% [4]. - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, a 251% increase, and a net profit of 2.35 billion yuan, up 290.6%. Same-store sales grew by 200.8% [4]. - Mixue Group's revenue reached 14.875 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase, with a net profit of 2.718 billion yuan, up 44.1% [5]. Group 2: International Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue reached 2.851 billion yuan in the Asia-Pacific market (excluding China), a 257.8% increase, and 2.265 billion yuan in the Americas, up 1142.3%. The company operates 571 stores in 18 countries, with nearly 40% of total revenue coming from international markets [6]. - Lao Pu Gold's overseas revenue was 1.597 billion yuan, a 455.2% increase, with plans to expand into the Hong Kong and Macau markets [7][8]. - Mixue Group opened its first store in Kazakhstan and has around 4,700 overseas stores across 12 countries, optimizing operations in Indonesia and Vietnam [7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The Hong Kong new consumption sector is transitioning from a "beta" market to a more differentiated "alpha" market, with a focus on building long-term competitive advantages [9]. - The shift in consumer focus from family to individual spending, particularly among younger generations, is driving demand for emotional and social value in consumption [10]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong new consumption sector is expected to continue, with public funds projected to flow into the sector significantly in 2025 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new mini version of Labubu has generated significant market excitement, leading to rapid sell-outs across multiple platforms and strong consumer interest [2][4][6]. Sales Performance - The mini version of Labubu was released on August 28, with a retail price of 79 yuan per blind box and 1,106 yuan for a full set of 14 boxes. The series includes 28 regular items and 2 hidden items [2]. - Within one minute of launch, the product sold out on platforms like JD, Taobao, and Douyin, with over 300,000 units sold on Tmall that night [4]. - As of September 2, over 46,000 units of the mini Labubu had been sold on the platform Dewu, with more than 110,000 users expressing interest [4]. Pricing Trends - The average transaction price for the mini Labubu blind box in the last 30 days was over 130 yuan, while the average prices for the full sets were around 1,500 yuan and 1,700 yuan [4][5]. Product Expansion - Another product, the Rock Big Doll from the Labubu series, also saw strong sales, with over 6,000 units sold on Dewu by September 2, and an average price of nearly 900 yuan in the last 30 days [6]. - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, emphasized the potential of Labubu as a global IP, indicating plans for diverse product applications and market expansion [7]. Market Outlook - The Labubu brand is expected to experience explosive growth in 2024, with the potential to become a globally sought-after trend, as indicated by the positive market response and sales performance [7].

Core Insights - The launch of the mini version of LABUBU by Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, with over 200 million viewers on Tmall's live stream and rapid sell-out across platforms within minutes of release [1][2] - The mini LABUBU's design appeals to consumers for its portability and versatility, allowing it to be used as a fashion accessory, which enhances its desirability [3][10] - The secondary market has seen a dramatic price increase for hidden versions of LABUBU, with prices soaring up to 14 times the original price, indicating strong demand and speculative trading [3][9] Sales Performance - The mini LABUBU sold over 21,000 units within the first two days of launch, with 82,000 users expressing interest in purchasing [2] - The initial price for the mini LABUBU was set at 79 yuan per unit, with a complete box priced at 1106 yuan [2] - On the resale market, hidden versions are priced between 679.5 yuan and 1188 yuan, while regular versions are being sold for around 300 yuan [3] Market Strategy - The introduction of the mini LABUBU is part of Pop Mart's strategy to capitalize on the popularity of existing IPs and to maintain consumer engagement during periods of lower product novelty [10] - The company aims to enhance the narrative depth of its IPs, as LABUBU is seen as a globally recognized phenomenon but lacks a deeper story compared to other IPs [10] - Pop Mart's CEO expressed confidence in the long-term commercial potential of LABUBU as a world-class IP, suggesting that the brand's value is just beginning to be realized [10] Production Challenges - The surge in demand for LABUBU has posed production challenges for Pop Mart, with current monthly production capacity reaching 30 million units, ten times that of the previous year [10] - The company is currently in a phase of "catching up" with production to meet the heightened consumer demand [10]

Core Insights - Miniso, a Chinese trendy retail brand, has successfully attracted consumers with its plush toy series at its Paris flagship store in July 2024, highlighting a surge in consumer interest [1] - The company has expanded its operations to 112 countries and regions, facing challenges in maintaining efficient operations in international markets [1] - Miniso's global journey reflects the current trend of Chinese brands focusing on systematic and refined global operations rather than mere product exports [1] Group 1 - Miniso utilizes advanced digital tools to monitor global sales data, consumer feedback, and supply chain stability in real-time from its headquarters in Guangzhou [1] - The introduction of Feishu, a global integrated collaboration platform, has enhanced operational efficiency and communication across different time zones and languages [2] - The "Overseas Store Assistant" application built on Feishu's low-code platform has standardized operations and improved cross-time zone collaboration for Miniso's global stores [3] Group 2 - In the Indonesian market, Miniso leveraged Feishu's multi-dimensional table feature to digitize its store expansion process, achieving a 50% increase in development efficiency compared to traditional methods [3] - Challenges such as language barriers and cross-time zone collaboration consume significant resources for companies expanding internationally, as noted by Feishu's Chief Commercial Officer [3] - Cultural integration is emphasized as a "soft power" for Chinese companies, with brands like Bawang Tea Ji using Feishu to promote understanding of Chinese tea culture among global employees [5] Group 3 - Feishu respects cultural diversity in its product design, supporting multi-skin tone emoji options and avoiding potentially misinterpreted symbols [5] - The platform provides stable and efficient foundational services while also offering customizable solutions for specific business scenarios [5] - J&T Express, a global logistics service provider, has implemented Feishu for unified collaboration across 12 countries, achieving online coordination for 80,000 employees in just 40 working days [5][6] Group 4 - The ongoing trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is supported by Feishu, which is transforming its accumulated experiences into a toolkit for more outbound enterprises [6] - Feishu's collaboration with outbound companies is creating new narratives on a global scale [6]

前不久的中期业绩会上，泡泡玛特宣布了半年营收破百亿的好消息。 换言之，泡泡玛特仅用了半年时间就达成了去年一整年的业绩。其中，LABUBU 所属的 THE MONSTERS 以 668% 的增速领跑，已然成为泡泡玛特的"赚 钱机器"。 在业绩之外，对于股东、媒体关心的 LABUBU 规划，创始人、董事长兼 CEO 王宁也扔下了一个"炸弹"新品——迷你款 LABUBU。 王宁手拿迷你款 LABUBU 这会成为"非常非常受欢迎的超级爆款"，王宁面带笑容地对外展示即将发布的新品，显然泡泡玛特内部对迷你款 LABUBU 有超强的信心。 值得注意的是，第三代 LABUBU 刚刚于今年 4 月发售，一经推出就火遍了全球市场。一般来说，LABUBU 的新品代际间隔在 9 个月左右，而上一代 LABUBU 正是"春风得意"之时。 为什么泡泡玛特要在此时推出 LABUBU 4.0？迷你款 LABUBU 又能否如王宁之愿，成为下一个爆款单品？ 01 太贵？太小？太丑？ 8 月 28 日 22 时，THE MONSTERS "心底密码"系列搪胶毛绒挂件盲盒（即迷你款 LABUBU）正式全渠道开售。据胖鲸监测，泡泡玛特淘宝和抖音两大线 ...