Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing recycling and upcycling technologies for polyurethane (PU) thermosetting plastics to transition from a linear consumption model to a circular economy, highlighting the potential for bio-based materials in achieving sustainability [7][11]. Group 1: Market Overview - Polyurethane is the sixth largest plastic globally, with a market size of $83.2 billion in 2024, projected to exceed $108 billion by 2029 [8]. - As of 2022, global solid PU production surpassed 22 million tons, but the recycling rate remains below 30%, leading to significant environmental concerns due to landfill and incineration practices [8]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The article discusses various technological pathways for recycling PU, including physical, chemical, and biological methods, which aim to convert waste PU into higher-value products [7][19]. - Innovations in smart material design, such as incorporating reversible covalent bonds, are proposed to enhance the recyclability of PU, allowing for efficient reprocessing and self-healing capabilities [29]. Group 3: Bio-based Polyurethane - Bio-based PU, derived from renewable resources like vegetable oils and starch, offers better biodegradability and lower carbon footprints compared to fossil-based PU [11]. - Research indicates that sugar-based PU can achieve significant mass loss (up to 35%) within 30 days under enzymatic degradation while maintaining thermal stability above 235°C [14]. Group 4: Recycling and Upcycling Strategies - The article outlines various recycling methods, including mechanical recycling, pyrolysis, solvolysis, hydrolysis, and biodegradation, each with distinct advantages and limitations [22][25]. - Chemical recycling techniques can selectively recover polyols and isocyanates, enabling the synthesis of new high-performance polymers, thus promoting a closed-loop system [19][22]. Group 5: Future Directions - The future of PU recycling hinges on making technologies more universal and cost-effective, advancing smart polymer designs from laboratory to industry, and improving waste classification and characterization systems [33].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688323 | 瑞华泰 | 26.80 | 13.95% | 20.39万 | | 5.29亿 | | 300221 | 银禧科技 | 12.20 | 13.28% | 99.47万 | | 11.66亿 | | 688585 | 上纬新材 | 160.10 | 11.19% | 9.30万 | | 14.68 乙 | | 001255 | 博菲电气 | 37.71 | 10.01% | 5.35万 | | 1.90亿 | | 301237 | 和顺科技 | 63.43 | 9.68% | 4.91万 | | 3.06亿 | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 16.80 | 7.69% | 288.60万 | | 46.88亿 | | 603150 | 万朗磁塑 | 42.39 | 7.13% | 6.30万 | | 2.64亿 | | 605488 | 福来新材 | 37.02 | 5.98% | 16.58万 | | 6.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "Oscillation" [3][4] 2. Core Views - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. Short - term market trends lack obvious driving forces and are expected to be mainly oscillatory [2][3] - PP has insufficient driving forces, and the rebound is also limited. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.67%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [3] Demand - The average operating rate of LLDPE/LDPE downstream products in China decreased by 0.2% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.1%, while the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.6%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 395,400 tons, a 24,700 - ton increase from the previous period, a 6.66% month - on - month increase. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 475,100 tons, a 3,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 0.77% month - on - month increase and a 19.11% year - on - year increase [3] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 160, with the futures price at a discount [3] Profit - The costs of coal - to - and ethane - to - polyethylene production increased by 59 yuan/ton and 248 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous period. The costs of oil - to - and ethylene - to - polyethylene production decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 129 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of methanol - to - polyethylene production remained the same as last week [3] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [3] Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3] 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - This week, China's polypropylene production was 779,200 tons, a 13,400 - ton decrease (1.69% decline) from last week and a 38,700 - ton increase (5.23% increase) compared to the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.47%, a 1.27% month - on - month decrease [4] Demand - The average operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 52.60%. After New Year's Day, cold weather in northern China affected outdoor construction, leading to a decline in the demand for ton bags, woven bags, and outdoor pipe network construction. The CPP sample enterprise average operating rate decreased by 2.18% from last week [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 743,500 tons, a 9,300 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.26% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 467,700 tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease [4] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 254, with the futures price at a premium [4] Profit - This week, the profits of oil - to -, coal - to -, methanol - to -, externally - sourced propylene - to -, and PDH - to - polypropylene production all recovered. The average weekly profit of Chinese polypropylene import samples was - 288.03 yuan/ton, a 55.30 - yuan increase from last week, a 16.11% month - on - month increase [4] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [4] Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - PP futures price increased from 6348 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 2.61% increase; PE futures price increased from 6472 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, a 3.12% increase [5] - PP production decreased by 12.21%; PE production increased by 0.52% [5] - PP spot price increased from 6140 yuan/ton to 6260 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase; LLDPE spot price increased from 6310 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton, a 1.58% increase [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upward range and are likely to experience weak oscillations. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, the situation in Venezuela, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9] - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [10] - Polypropylene (PP) faces significant upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.12%. The average price of LDPE was 8,933.33 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous week. The average price of HDPE was 7,022.50 yuan/ton, up 2.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,848.89 yuan/ton, up 3.37%. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.89 yuan/ton, down 0.94% week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47) [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 4), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 290 yuan/ton (+ 51) [17] - **Spot Prices**: Provided detailed spot price data for different varieties (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions, including minimum, maximum, and mainstream prices, as well as their price changes [20][21] - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $58.78 per barrel, up $1.45 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.05 per barrel, up $2.25. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 472 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 34 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 68.68 tons, up 0.51% week - on - week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.87 tons, down 0.36 tons from the previous week [34] - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have planned new production capacity in 2026, with a total planned capacity of 550 tons [37] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [38] - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 37.89%, down 1.06% from the previous week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 48.96%, up 0.55%, and the PE pipe operating rate was 29.50%, down 0.50% [40] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 31.5%, with a 2% difference from the annual average. The production ratio of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 6.9%, with a 3% difference [44] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.48 tons, down 0.16 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [46] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,365 lots, an increase of 12 lots from the previous week [50] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.61% [54] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: Provided price data for PP granules, PP powder, and other related products on January 9, 2026, as well as their price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [59] - **Basis**: On January 9, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,376.67 yuan/ton (+ 3.35%). The PP basis was - 137 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [61] - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 212 yuan/ton (- 54), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 49 yuan/ton (- 29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 261 yuan/ton (+ 83) [69] - **Cost**: Same as the plastic cost data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the anthracite price remained unchanged [73] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 516.36 yuan/ton, up 110.86 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 428.77 yuan/ton, up 141.48 yuan/ton [78] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.47%, down 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP granules was 77.92 tons, down 1.69% week - on - week, and the weekly output of PP powder was 6.75 tons, down 2.88% [82] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [86] - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 52.58% (- 0.18). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 42.92% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.04% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 38.13% (- 0.34%) [88] - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 349.72 US dollars/ton, down 19.02 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the export profit was - 8.91 US dollars/ton, down 5.17 US dollars/ton [94] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 46.77 tons (- 4.69%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 16.14% week - on - week, the inventory of traders increased by 15.52%, and the port inventory increased by 7.24% [96] - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 941.95 tons, down 2.15% week - on - week, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.64 days, up 2.11% [100] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous week [104]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhongnan's stock price has shown a positive trend in early January 2025, with significant trading volume and a notable increase in net profit year-on-year despite a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 12, Dazhongnan's stock rose by 2.33%, reaching 3.52 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 160 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.46% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 5.71%, with a 4.76% rise over the last five trading days and a 6.34% increase over the last 20 days, although it has decreased by 1.40% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Dazhongnan reported a revenue of 939 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.06 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 158.98% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 172 million CNY, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Dazhongnan was 108,300, a decrease of 3.42% from the previous period, with an average of 17,338 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.55% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 14.65 million shares as a new shareholder [3].

Core Viewpoint - The European Plastics Association has announced that Rob Ingram, CEO of INEOS Olefins & Polymers Europe, will take over as the association's president starting January 1, 2026, focusing on promoting the circular economy within the industry [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Rob Ingram will succeed Benny Malmsten, Vice President and Head of Sustainability at Chevron Phillips Chemical [1] - The association has elected three vice presidents from Dow Chemical, Borealis, and Evonik Industries [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The European plastics industry is at a critical turning point, with unprecedented pressure on its competitiveness [1] - The market share of European plastic production has significantly declined from 22% in 2006 to an expected 12% by 2024, indicating a rapid and ongoing loss of competitiveness [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - Ingram emphasizes the need for coordinated action across the entire value chain and urgent policy measures to support this key European strategic industry [1] - The association aims to achieve 65% circularity in plastic products and climate neutrality by 2050 under Ingram's leadership [1] - The member companies of the association account for 90% of the polymer production in the EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend, but it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. This is due to the expected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in production scheduling next week, while demand may continue to be sluggish, and overall inventory is at a high level [5][6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the 05 contract was on an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,784 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,897 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.36% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of carbide - based enterprises was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.080 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 66.43%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.780 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [5]. - **Cost and Inventory**: The profit of carbide - based production was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,127.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure. Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: There are graphical displays of the price trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the moving averages of 5, 10, 20, 60, and 120 periods. There are also displays of the position trends of the top 5 and top 20 seats [12]. - **Basis and Spread Analysis**: There are graphical displays of the basis trends and the spread analysis of the main contract [9][15]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: Graphical displays are provided for the price, cost - profit, and operating rate of semi - coke, as well as the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide. There are also displays for the price, production of liquid chlorine and raw salt, and the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory of caustic soda [17][21][23][25]. - **Supply Trends**: Graphical displays are provided for the capacity utilization rates of carbide - based and ethylene - based production, the production and maintenance volume of PVC, and the daily production of PVC [29][31]. - **Demand Trends**: Graphical displays are provided for the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the investment in real estate, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of housing. There are also displays for the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [34][36][40]. - **Inventory Situation**: Graphical displays are provided for the exchange warehouse receipts, carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [44]. - **Ethylene - Based Situation**: Graphical displays are provided for the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and the FOB price difference of ethylene - based products and the import price difference of vinyl chloride [46]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 are presented, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, export, and supply - demand differences [50]. 3.4 Technical Analysis This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [54].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for PVC products, which will eliminate the VAT export rebate for PVC powder starting April 1, 2026, significantly impacting the PVC market and raising export costs [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The current export tax rebate rate for PVC powder is 13%, and its removal is expected to increase export costs by approximately $75 per ton based on current domestic prices of 4500 RMB per ton [1] - The adjustment is anticipated to have a profound effect on the PVC market, drawing significant attention from both the industry and capital markets [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - China's PVC powder exports have become a crucial support for domestic demand, with total exports projected to reach 2.617 million tons in 2024 and exceed 3.8 million tons in 2025, driven by increasing global demand and a surplus in domestic supply [1] - There is an emerging trend of overseas clients actively seeking imports from China, anticipating a rise in costs post-April, which may lead to increased transaction activity in the export market [1] Group 3: Domestic Concerns - Domestic industry analysts express concerns regarding high inventory levels, with PVC social inventory reaching 1.0611 million tons by December 25, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.92%, indicating historical highs [2] - The upcoming nine-day Spring Festival holiday is expected to exacerbate inventory accumulation, with downstream demand recovery likely experiencing delays [2] Group 4: Long-term Industry Trends - The cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to drive deep adjustments in the PVC industry, leading to four major trends: accelerated capacity elimination, structural upgrades, reshaped export patterns, and domestic demand becoming the primary price driver [3] - The industry is likely to see a shift towards higher-value PVC products, driven by cost pressures, and an increase in overseas production capacity as companies adapt to changing market conditions [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term demand for imports is expected to gradually release, with concentrated purchasing likely before early April; however, a new price structure may emerge as the market adjusts to higher costs, potentially supporting overall price recovery in the long run [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the organic silicon sector, driven by supply constraints and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [2] - The report suggests focusing on key sectors such as industrial silicon, PVC, and phosphorus, as well as companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from differentiated electricity pricing policies in Shaanxi Province [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Outlook - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an expected increase in oil prices [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [2][3] Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.7% to $63.02 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.7% to $58.84 per barrel [9] - The PPI for all industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [5] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemical products, and companies benefiting from "de-involution" policies [2] - Specific companies to watch include: - For textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Hengli Petrochemical - For agricultural chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy - For export-related chemicals: Juhua Co. and Wanhu Chemical [2][15] Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalizations and projected earnings [15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Production profits are poor, but the cost side provides support. The output is significantly higher than the same period last year, leading to significant pressure on the supply side. The overall downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level, and due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand remains weak. Technically, with positive macro - sentiment, the polyolefin prices may continue to rise [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 400,000 tons and may increase. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 450,000 tons and may decrease as spot offers rise and some downstream rigid purchases occur [9]. - **Supply**: Newly planned maintenance of plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical, along with the non - restart of previously maintained plants, is expected to reduce the next - period total polyethylene output to 682,100 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the current period. The estimated total polypropylene output is 774,000 tons, showing a narrow decrease and continuing the downward trend [9]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly increased, with some rigid consumption in food composite films, daily chemical packaging bags, and barrier films. After the festival, the market consumes with orders, and there may be an increase in the operating rate in some fields in the middle of the month considering downstream inventory preparation. For polypropylene products, orders in various industries have decreased, causing the average industry operating rate to decline [9]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP have narrowed, while the loss of PDH - based PP remains large, and the cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 Views and Strategies - **View**: The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With positive macro - sentiment, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move up [11]. - **Futures and Options Strategies**: Go long with a light position and buy call options [11]. 3.3 PP Single - side Strategy - **Strategy**: Short PP. - **Price and Trend**: The price has rebounded from the bottom, reaching 6,484 as of January 8th. - **Logic**: The new PP production capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now [14]. 3.4 Supply - side - **PE Output**: There are data on PE weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. Plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [70][91][99]. - **PP Output**: There are data on PP weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, and the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [77][97][101]. - **Imports**: There are data on PE and PP import volumes [84]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Downstream Operating Rates**: There are data on the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, including sub - industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, plastic weaving, and BOPP [106]. - **Exports**: There are data on PE and PP export volumes [127]. - **Plastic Products**: There are data on plastic product output, rubber and plastic products industry inventory, automobile and home appliance production year - on - year, home appliance export volume, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports [129].