1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the plastic industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on polyethylene (PE) [1][2] - It assesses the current market situation, provides trading strategies, and forecasts future trends Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The core driver of the current decline is the continuous pessimism in the spot market, leading to a negative cycle of price drops, weak sales, inventory accumulation, and further price drops [2] - Although PE demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure may ease due to increased device maintenance and potential production shifts, limiting the further decline of the futures market [2] - In the short - term, the space for further decline in the PE market is limited, but in the long - term, the large - scale production of non - standard products next year may suppress LLDPE prices [10][11] Group 4: Chapter 1 - Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The spot market's weakness drags down the futures market, but fundamental improvements in supply may limit further declines [2][10] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The short - term decline space may be limited, with the price range for L2605 between 6200 - 6500; recommend holding short positions but not adding new ones [13] - Arbitrage strategy: Short - term attention on narrowing the L - P spread; two previous L - P spread narrowing strategies, one to be closed next week, the other stopped out after the holiday [16] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventory is high, short plastic futures and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy plastic futures and sell put options to lock in procurement costs [17] Group 5: Chapter 2 - This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Shabic's Jubail plant outage (7.8 million tons of PE), Luqing's linear device shutdown due to profit issues, and Yulong's planned production shift of its full - density second - line to HDPE [23] - Bearish information: BASF's 500,000 - ton full - density plant is expected to start production by the end of the year [19] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - No important events are expected next week [20] Group 6: Chapter 3 - Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The PE futures market continues to decline; capital flow: 01 - contract positions decline, 05 - contract positions rise rapidly, and the net short positions of major profitable seats decrease slightly [25] - Basis structure: The spot price decline drives the futures down, and the basis weakens further. As of Friday, the basis in North China is - 90 yuan/ton, in East China is - 20 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton [29] - Spread structure: Due to the low valuation of the 01 - contract and approaching delivery, short - term positive arbitrage opportunities emerge [33] Group 7: Chapter 4 - Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, production profits of all production lines are compressed [36] Group 8: Chapter 5 - Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In December, the inventory reduction is limited. Supply increases due to limited planned maintenance, increased production capacity, and potential import growth; demand weakens as the agricultural film peak season ends [45] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PE operating rate is 83.86% (- 0.25%). More devices are under maintenance this week, and several new devices are expected to start production soon [51] 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - PE imports from the US may decrease, but overall imports are expected to increase slightly at the end of this year and early next year. PE exports continue to grow [60] 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 44.3% (- 0.55%), and all major downstream sectors show a downward trend, indicating a clear entry into the off - season [68]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月19日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.07个百分点至78.36%，PVC开工 率继续减少，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.5个百分点，下游 制品订单不佳。出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单有所回升，但印度市场价格也在下跌，印度 需求有限，关注台湾台塑1月份报价。本周社会库存略有减少，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、 销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于 近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴 嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪下，焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场情绪，氯碱综合毛利下降，部分生产 企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位，印度市场价格也在下跌，印度需求 有限。12月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，社会库存基本稳定，现货价格上涨后，市场成交偏淡，近期 PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline due to the possible addition of new production capacity and the gradual exit from the peak season of agricultural films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week of December 19th. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the cost of crude oil has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline [1]. - The plastics 2605 contract decreased in price with increased positions. The lowest price was 6314 yuan/ton, the highest was 6470 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.90%. The position increased by 36438 lots to 598214 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with a price range between - 80 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7950 - 8580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6600 - 7940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, at a neutral level [4]. - In terms of demand, as of the week of December 19th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 660,000 tons, which is 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].

证券之星消息，12月19日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.32%，神剑股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3890.45，上涨0.36%。深证成指报收于13140.22，上涨0.66%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 8.17 | 9.96% | 250.71万 | | 19.86亿 | | 603879 | 永悦科技 | 5.69 | 5.57% | 21.26万 | | 1.18亿 | | 300806 | 斯迪克 | 28.05 | 5.02% | 18.28万 | | 5.12亿 | | 603150 | 万朗薇塑 | 38.28 | 3.60% | 4.47万 | | 1.71亿 | | 301131 | 聚塞龙 | 45.71 | 3.53% | 8499.0 | 3834.65万 | | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 17.12 | 3.51% | 5.82万 | 9788.23万 | | | 6 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 为35.13%，环比减少0.73个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比增加0.200个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.93%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开 工率为81.36%，环比增加1.05个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价格占 优；当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-1102.13元/吨，亏损环比增加8.10%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 520.44元/吨，亏损环比增加10.10%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1852.55元/吨，利润环比增加 3.00%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity utilization, inventory levels, macro - economic indicators, and international events. The trading strategies vary daily based on these factors, with suggestions of holding, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines for both L and PP contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The price of LLDPE market mostly shows fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. The trading volume is often limited due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing attitudes. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, the L主力 2605 contract closed at 6434 points, down 42 points or 0.65%. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE market was between 6390 - 6850 yuan/ton [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market is also in a state of adjustment. Some regions have structural supply shortages, but the overall trading atmosphere is weak. On 12 - 25 - 19, the PP主力 2605 contract closed at 6248 points, down 31 points or 0.49% [1] Important Information - **Domestic Economy**: In 2025, the total social electricity consumption in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time, and the total installed power generation capacity exceeds 380 million kilowatts. The new energy industry has developed rapidly, with new installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching about 370 million kilowatts [2] - **Industry Development**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Chinese synthetic resin industry has achieved high - quality development, with the largest production capacity in the world. The ethylene self - sufficiency rate has increased from 73% to 90%. The industry has diversified raw material routes, optimized product structures, and achieved independent breakthroughs in technology and equipment [9] Logical Analysis - **Production and Consumption**: In October, the apparent consumption of PE and PP increased, with a combined total of 735.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The production capacity utilization rate of PE and PP also showed different trends, with some periods of increase and some of decrease [16] - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the M1 and M2 growth rates, the China Bond New Composite Index, and the logistics industry prosperity index have an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in November, the domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, with the scissors difference at - 3.1% [10] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, it was suggested to stay on the sidelines for the L主力 2605 contract and the PP主力 2605 contract, and pay attention to the support at 6200 points for the PP contract [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines, but there are also suggestions to try long or short positions in certain situations [3] - **Options Trading**: Generally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]

Group 1 - Germany's overall export is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2023, reaching approximately €1.6 trillion, maintaining the same level as 2022 for the third consecutive year [1] - Imports are expected to increase by 4.4% to around €1.4 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of about €200 billion, the lowest since 2012, excluding the pandemic years [1] - The export outlook for Germany in 2026 remains bleak, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade [1] Group 2 - Exports to China are forecasted to decline by 10% in 2023, falling to €81 billion, marking the first time since 2010 that China will not be among the top five export destinations for Germany [3] - Imports from China are expected to rise by over 7%, reaching approximately €168 billion [3] - Exports to the United States are also projected to decrease by 7.3%, slightly below €150 billion, with potential further declines anticipated due to preemptive actions by German companies [3] Group 3 - Different industries in Germany face varying export challenges in 2025, with food exports expected to grow by over 6% to a record €86 billion [4] - The chemical industry is projected to see slight growth, particularly in pharmaceuticals and fertilizers, with both expected to increase by over 3% [4] - The plastics industry is anticipated to be significantly affected, with exports expected to decline by over 2%, while the petrochemical sector may experience a dramatic drop of 13% [4] Group 4 - The machinery sector is likely to see a 1.7% decrease in exports due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, impacting EU machinery products [4] - The automotive industry is also expected to be heavily impacted, with a projected export decline of 3.2% [4] - The shift towards electric vehicles in China and other emerging markets may provide competitive advantages for Chinese manufacturers [4]

证券之星消息，12月18日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌0.31%，国风新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3876.37，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于13053.98，下跌1.29%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出3.18亿元，游资资金净流出2.27亿元，散户资金净流 入5.45亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： ...

Group 1 - The company, 聚合顺 (605166), clarified on an interactive platform that it does not have the J2600GF30 model, but it does have the J2600 model [1] - The J2600 model is primarily used in the downstream engineering plastics sector [1]