研究報告 每日通訊 收市價 升(跌)% 恒生指數 23,640.65 2.30 國企指數 8,593.07 2.47 上證綜合指數 3,403.95 0.86 深證成指 10,354.22 0.64 美國道瓊斯指數 42,051.06 (0.21) 美國納斯達克指數 19,146.81 0.72 美國標普500指數 5,892.58 0.10 日經225指數 38,128.13 (0.14) 英國FTSE100指數 8,585.01 (0.21) 德國DAX指數 23,527.01 (0.47) 美元指數 101.07 0.08 本港及主要海外市場指數 | | 恒生指數期貨 | | 提高到80%、貸款期限延長到10年。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 即月 | | | 上交易日結算價 | | 23,517 | 是日關注股份 | | 較上日 | | 490 | 港股 | | 日內最高 | | | 23,566 赤子城科技（09911.HK） | | 日內最低 | | 22,959 | (1)營收利潤雙增長 | | 成交張數 | （萬） | 10.63 | (2)社交業務穩健增 ...

1Q 广告业务收入超预期，2-4 月微信小店广告消耗同比增长近 4 倍 1Q 广告收入同比增长 20.2%，超一致预期 3.4%，毛利率同比抬升 0.8pct， 视频号收入同比提升 60%。2Q 微信事业部设立电商为旗下独立部门，我们 认为小店流量释放仍有红利，有望持续推动 GMV 和广告营收增长。后续我 们建议关注广告位释放和 618 投放进展。二季度重点进展：微信小店 2-4 月广告消耗同比增长近四倍，目前流量已全域打通，支持跳转微信小店直购 链路，同时增加 KOL 合作平台，支持更多投放渠道，例如腾讯视频、腾讯 优量汇等 10 万多应用。 1Q 国内游戏收入同比增长 24%，新游储备丰富待上线 1Q 增值服务收入同比增长 17%，高于市场预期 5%，对应毛利率同比改善 2.3pct 至 59.6%。1Q 国内游戏收入同比增长 24%，海外游戏收入同比增长 22%（固定汇率），分别超 VA 预期 7%和 8%。据 ST 数据，五一期间《王 者荣耀》流水同比增长 14%。《三角洲行动》4 月 DAU 峰值突破 1200 万， 创近三年新游峰值新高。当前腾讯新游储备较为充实，《无畏契约》手游、 《王者荣耀：世 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of AI-generated content has led to the proliferation of misleading information, particularly in health and wellness sectors, prompting platforms like Xiaohongshu to take action against such abuses [1][4][6]. Group 1: AI Content Generation and Misleading Information - AI technology is being misused to create deceptive videos featuring public figures, which can mislead viewers into believing false health claims [2][3]. - Many of these AI-generated videos mix real scientific information with fabricated content, making it difficult for the average viewer to discern the truth [3][4]. - The use of AI in generating content has raised concerns about "information pollution," which can undermine public trust and health decisions [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory and Platform Responses - Xiaohongshu has initiated a crackdown on accounts that misuse AI to generate false content, banning 13 accounts and removing 265 pieces of misleading content [6][7]. - The platform is responding to government directives aimed at creating a healthier online environment by enhancing its content monitoring capabilities [6][7]. - Legal experts emphasize the need for clear identification of AI-generated content to protect users from misinformation and uphold platform integrity [5][8]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The rapid advancement of AI technology poses challenges for content verification, as many misleading videos evade detection due to sophisticated generation techniques [5][8]. - There is a call for social media platforms to implement AI content labeling mechanisms and for the public to improve media literacy to better evaluate the credibility of online information [8].

Core Insights - The core value of the company remains unchanged, focusing on sincerity, authenticity, quality, and trustworthiness [2][14] - The company aims to enhance community engagement by promoting real experiences and valuable content creation [2][9] Community Development - The number of active creators in the community increased by 143% year-on-year, with a 154% increase in the number of posts [2][8] - Monthly community dynamics reached 5.25 million, with 830,000 creators earning cash income [2][8] - The company plans to expand into more categories such as beauty, digital products, home goods, and sports [2] All-Star Program - The "All-Star Main Venue Plan" was launched to support quality creators, with over 30 billion in exposure, 300,000 free products, and 5 billion in cash allocated over the next 12 months [2][14] User Demographics - The platform has become the most popular among young people in China, with one in two users under 30 being active on the app [8] - Female users now account for 49% of active users, indicating a more balanced gender demographic [8] Community Guidelines - The introduction of the "Community Charter" aims to foster sincerity and mutual assistance among users and brands [9][11] - The company emphasizes the importance of real experiences and integrity in business practices [9][11] Historical Context - The company started in 2015, focusing on sneaker culture and gradually expanded its services [4][6] - The launch of the trading function was a pivotal moment, leading to significant growth in transaction volume and user engagement [6] Brand Integrity - The company has taken a strong stance against counterfeit products, resulting in the removal of over 6,000 items from 83 brands, which represented a loss of 2.1 billion in transaction volume [12][13] - The decision to eliminate fake accounts and ensure data authenticity reflects the company's commitment to maintaining trust within the community [14]

Group 1 - Musk's acquisition of Twitter was driven by three main reasons: his heavy usage of the platform, the belief that a better Twitter could benefit humanity, and having excess capital which can lead to mistakes [3] - Twitter provided Musk a platform to communicate directly with the public, bypassing traditional media, which he believes is controlled by special interest groups [4][5] - Musk's acquisition was not primarily for profit but to ensure a solid foundation for free speech, reflecting his obsession with the platform and a desire to reshape it [8] Group 2 - After acquiring Twitter, Musk initiated significant changes, including massive layoffs, comparing Twitter's engineering team to Tesla's, and suggesting that half of Twitter's 7,500 employees should be let go [9] - Musk's management style involved micro-managing operations, requiring employees to work in the office and monitoring attendance, which deviated from the previous remote work policy [21][22] - Musk's approach to cost-cutting included closing offices and investigating whether employees were legitimate, revealing past wasteful practices at Twitter [11][13][14] Group 3 - Musk's political views shifted during the pandemic, leading him to engage in political debates on Twitter, often aligning with right-wing figures and opposing progressive movements [15] - His management decisions at Twitter were often driven by intuition rather than data, leading to controversial changes such as altering the verification system and reacting angrily to advertisers' concerns [17][18][20] - The valuation of Twitter dropped significantly after Musk's acquisition, with Fidelity reducing its valuation from $19 billion to $11.8 billion, indicating challenges in the company's performance under his leadership [24] Group 4 - Musk's leadership style at Twitter has been characterized by a desire for control, leading to decisions that may not align with the platform's social dynamics, as opposed to the technical challenges faced by his other companies [26][27] - The narrative surrounding Musk's actions at Twitter suggests a complex interplay of power, money, and decision-making that may not yield the desired outcomes [27]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has initiated coverage on Zhizi City Technology (09911.HK) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting its strong growth potential in the global pan-entertainment social sector, driven by its "product replication + country replication" strategy and extensive overseas operational experience [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhizi City Technology has shown robust performance in recent years, entering a "product harvest period" with a clear business structure and synergistic growth across its three main business segments [1] - The company has a healthy product ladder in its pan-crowd social business, with flagship products MICO and YoHo generating cash flow, while newer products TopTop and SUGO are expected to see revenue growth exceeding 100% and 200% respectively in 2024 [2] - The company is projected to achieve approximately 50% year-on-year revenue growth for "TopTop + SUGO" in 2025, leveraging its replicable experience to develop star products [2] Group 2: Market Expansion - Zhizi City Technology is accelerating its expansion in overseas markets, particularly through its global multi-crowd social platform HeeSay, which has significant growth potential [2] - The company is also diversifying its growth avenues by developing mobile games and social e-commerce, with the casual gaming sector being a strategic focus [2] - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents a vast market opportunity for online social entertainment due to high GDP per capita and limited offline social options, with the media and entertainment market projected to reach $82 billion by 2032 [2]

电商界最新大事，小红书和阿里终于联手了。 双方官宣将开启战略合作，小红书首次对外域开放，其广告笔记内容可直接跳转到淘宝相关店铺，打通从种草到购买的全链路。 仔细看合作内容，小红书似乎放弃了做电商闭环的执念，而阿里也终于获得了期待已久的年轻用户和内容流量。 但表面上看是完美的能力互补背后，两个倔强大厂都在补交学费。 在具体的合作形式中，淘宝天猫和小红书首次开放了UD合作，新增效果广告模式，可以内容投放直接引流至淘宝天猫店铺/商品。这部分广告收入大部分 或属于阿里。 01 薛定谔的流量，幸福的烦恼 作为新晋热门大厂，过去几年每隔一段时间，就会有关于小红书的坊间传闻，搜索流量吊打度娘，种草笔记转化如何高等等，不久前，小红书更是天降富 贵，迎来了一大波海外流量。 目前小红书日活已经达到3亿，坐拥庞大流量的同时，其商业化一直不温不火，除了广告，从电商到直播、短视频，小红书似乎都没有找到适合自己的流 量货币化道路。 这就很尴尬，动不动流量爆发，但最后流量去哪了，谁也说不清楚，活脱脱的"薛定谔流量"。眼看陷入同样境遇的B站已经通过三谋换道超车，小红书商 业化必然很焦虑。 今年3月，小红书启动了出海电商，招募了第一批出海卖家 ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Xiaohongshu and Tmall, known as the "Red Cat Plan," aims to enhance the integration of content and commerce, allowing users to transition from product recommendations to direct purchases on Tmall [1][2][4] - Xiaohongshu's unique ability to generate "grass planting" content has established it as a leader in influencing consumer decisions, which is now recognized as a significant aspect of its commercial value [2][10] - The partnership is expected to improve the efficiency of brand operations by providing transaction data that can help calibrate and enhance the effectiveness of content marketing [7][8] Xiaohongshu's Commercial Infrastructure Upgrade - The collaboration is seen as a natural progression, combining Tmall's e-commerce expertise with Xiaohongshu's content-driven marketing to create a closed loop from content to sales [4][9] - Xiaohongshu's previous initiatives, such as the "Little Red Star" plan, laid the groundwork for this partnership by exploring data collaboration to optimize content [5] - The emphasis on "openness" in both platforms' strategies reflects a broader trend in Alibaba's e-commerce approach, focusing on enhancing consumer experience and providing better services [6] Impact on Brands and Businesses - Xiaohongshu serves as a primary touchpoint for brands to engage with users, making it crucial for brands to optimize their full operational chain [7] - The data from the partnership has shown significant improvements in engagement metrics, with click-through rates increasing by 20% and interaction rates by 109% for brands on Xiaohongshu [7] - Brands have reported high return on investment (ROI) from their campaigns on Xiaohongshu, with some achieving ROI figures as high as 30 during peak sales periods [7] Community and User Engagement - Xiaohongshu's community-driven approach allows for a rich ecosystem where users share authentic experiences, which in turn drives consumer interest and purchasing decisions [10][15] - The platform's design encourages user interaction and content sharing, fostering a vibrant community that enhances the effectiveness of "grass planting" [20][21] - With 40 million daily users sharing product experiences and generating 80 million comments, Xiaohongshu has become a hub for genuine consumer demand [22] Evolution of Consumer Behavior - The concept of "grass planting" reflects a shift in the commercial landscape, where consumer preferences are increasingly shaped by community interactions rather than traditional advertising [24][25] - Xiaohongshu's model illustrates a new commercial chain that stimulates demand, matches supply, and creates new consumption patterns [25][26] - The platform's ability to connect diverse consumer needs with relevant brands signifies a transformation in how marketing strategies are developed and executed [28][29]

新华社北京5月9日电 许多人一闲下来就会忍不住抓起手机，漫无目的地刷帖或短视频，浪费大量 时间。在韩国，越来越多年轻人意识到这一问题，开始有意远离社交媒体，代之以更健康的生活方式， 这一现象被媒体称为"多巴胺排毒"。 据韩国《中央日报》9日报道，21岁的大学生闻多敏（音译）去年意识到自己每天花10小时沉迷于 社交媒体，于是果断删除了社交媒体账号。 她说："即使交作业的最后期限迫在眉睫，我也无法抗拒社交媒体。它将我拉入无休止的短视频循 环中，直到深夜……根本停不下来。" 闻多敏说，她告别社交媒体，转而看看书、听听歌，从中"获得了更多满足感"。谈及这一年多来的 变化，她认为自己最大的改变是阅读和工作时能够更加专注。即使"没有社交媒体，我也能在生活细节 中找到快乐，建立更稳固的友谊，笑容也更多了"。 现年26岁的软件工程师辛尹志（音译）删掉手机中的社交媒体，花更多时间专注于工作。她 说："不仅是我，不少朋友和熟人也'戒'了社交媒体，希望活得更健康。" 有些人暂时难以完全戒掉社交媒体，就选择加入主题为"多巴胺排毒"的网上论坛或聊天室，与网友 们互相监督、分享经验。在韩国主流即时通讯服务软件"卡考说说"上，这样的聊天室 ...

下图展示了新闻对短期波动性的预测效力。为聚焦于预测波动性本身，而非价格变动方向，我们根据所有历 史每日收益率z分数的绝对值进行分组处理，并绘制出前72小时的平均新闻z分数。LSEG新闻评分结果表 明，在回顾过去五年波动性处于前10%的交易日时，该评分呈现出显著的上升态势。 Amit Das LSEG新闻数据和API业务 探究在非常规交易时段公布的季度收益报告是怎样引发股价大幅变动的。 剖析收益报告披露后新闻报道量的大幅增长态势，并研究其与股票估值的相关性。 探索如何借助新闻情绪来预测收益报告披露后的价格变动趋势，进而挖掘具有价值的交易机会。 理解和管理波动性是交易和投资组合管理中的关键环节。波动性作为衡量业绩最常用指标——夏普比率公式 的重要组成部分，其重要性不言而喻。实际上，近年来市场对波动性的担忧持续升温。VIX指数是追踪市场 波动性的关键指数之一。可以看出，2020年是一个明显的转折点，自此美国市场的波动性呈上升态势。 2020年至今，VIX指数的平均收盘价约为21.7美元，较2015 至 2020年的平均收盘价涨幅超过40%。这种上 升态势并非仅由过去几年中那些我们期望仅出现一次的极端事件所驱动。深入 ...