中信里昂近日首次覆盖社交娱乐公司赤子城科技，给予"跑赢大市"评级，目标价17.50港元。相较于10 月10日收盘价11.66港元，该目标价显示出50%的上行空间。此前，已经有东吴、招商等多家券商对赤 子城科技进行覆盖，并给予积极评级。 中信里昂指出，赤子城科技正在以独特的"Happiness machine"(快乐制造机)理念，在全球泛娱乐社交赛 道上构筑深厚壁垒。 中东业务空间广阔，本地化能力优于同业 赤子城科技在中东北非市场的竞争力正持续增强。根据公司财报，2024年及2025年上半年，其在MENA 地区的业务规模同比增长均超过60%，展现出强劲增长态势。 中信里昂指出，MENA地区人口超过5.7亿，年龄中位数仅为26岁，互联网用户规模达4亿，日均使用社 交应用时长超过210分钟，分别为美国、中国和德国的1.5倍、1.8倍和2倍，也远高于全球平均的143分 钟。 中信里昂认为，赤子城科技已在全球范围内——尤其是中东北非地区，构建起深厚的竞争护城河。该公 司一方面借鉴了中国市场已获验证的成熟盈利模式，另一方面依托丰富的互联网人才基础，逐步在全球 社交娱乐领域建立起差异化优势。其社交产品依托本地化深度运营、广 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, ZhiZi City Technology, is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in its social business and innovative products, particularly in the AI-driven sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between RMB 31.35 billion and RMB 32.15 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.0% to 41.5% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be around RMB 4.70 billion to RMB 5.10 billion, showing a substantial increase of 108.9% to 126.7% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be approximately RMB 6.30 billion to RMB 6.70 billion, reflecting a growth of about 40.6% to 49.6% [1]. Group 2: Social Business Growth - The social business is expected to generate revenue between RMB 28.00 billion and RMB 28.60 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 35.4% to 38.3% [2]. - Key contributors to this growth include strong performance from new products SUGO and TopTop, with SUGO ranking 7th in revenue among social network apps in the Middle East [2]. - The company is enhancing its market presence globally, with SUGO showing promising adaptability in new markets such as Latin America and Europe [2]. Group 3: Innovative Business Development - Innovative business is projected to achieve explosive growth, with expected revenue between RMB 3.35 billion and RMB 3.55 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.0% to 74.9% [3]. - The success is attributed to stable development in traffic monetization and social e-commerce, alongside the gradual revenue contribution from premium games [3]. - The company is focusing on shortening game development cycles and improving operational efficiency, which is expected to drive stronger growth in this segment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by user growth in its social business and accelerated performance in its innovative business segment [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a 39.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for 1H25, reaching 3.17 billion yuan, with social business revenue growing by 36.7% to 2.83 billion yuan and innovative business revenue increasing by 68.5% to 340 million yuan [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 1H25 is 500 million yuan, with Non-IFRS net profit projected at 570 million yuan [1]. Group 2: User Growth and Market Expansion - The company's social business maintained rapid growth, with 2Q25 monthly active users (MAU) reaching 33.85 million, reflecting a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 19% year-on-year increase [1]. - The company continues to expand into new products and markets, with significant user growth in YoHo, SUGO, and TopTop, and strong performance in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as rapid growth in small base, high ARPU markets in Europe and the US [1][2]. Group 3: Innovative Business Growth - The innovative business is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 65.0%-74.9% in 1H25, reaching 340-360 million yuan, driven by rapid development in traffic monetization and social e-commerce [2]. - The innovative business accounted for only 9% of total revenue in 2024 but has a significantly higher gross margin than the social business, indicating potential positive contributions to overall profitability as commercialization progresses [2]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - The company has slightly raised its profit expectations for the year due to improved operating profit margins, with a focus on the second half of the year being a peak season for revenue [2]. - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while increasing Non-IFRS net profit estimates by 2% and 1% to 1.09 billion yuan and 1.26 billion yuan, respectively [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 while slightly increasing its Non-IFRS net profit estimates for those years [1] - The company is expected to achieve a 39.5% year-on-year revenue growth in 1H25, reaching 3.17 billion yuan, driven by a 36.7% increase in social business revenue and a 68.5% increase in innovative business revenue [1][2] - The social business's monthly active users (MAU) reached 33.85 million in 2Q25, showing a 3% quarter-on-quarter growth and a 19% year-on-year growth, with a total of 870 million downloads [1] Group 2 - The innovative business is projected to grow significantly by 65.0%-74.9% year-on-year in 1H25, reaching 340-360 million yuan, primarily driven by traffic monetization and the rapid development of social e-commerce [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing operational leverage, with an expectation of improved profit margins in 1H, and anticipates a strong revenue rebound in 2H due to seasonal factors and successful new product launches [3] - The company is optimistic about the revenue elasticity in 2H, supported by enhanced marketing strategies and AI efficiency improvements [3]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for ZhiZi City Technology and raises the target price to HKD 14, indicating a 33% upside potential compared to the stock price of HKD 10.64 as of July 30 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZhiZi City Technology is a leading player in the global stranger social networking sector, leveraging nearly 20 years of overseas market experience to efficiently implement its "product replication + country replication" strategy [2] - The company expects total revenue for the first half of 2025 to be approximately RMB 31.35 to 32.15 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.0% to 41.5% [2] Group 2: Social Business Growth - The social business revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be around RMB 28.00 to 28.60 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 35.4% to 38.3% [3] - The innovative business revenue is expected to be approximately RMB 3.35 to 3.55 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 65.0% to 74.9% [3] - The company’s late-stage products continue to show growth potential, with strong performance in the general social networking sector [3] Group 3: Innovation and Future Growth - The second growth curve is entering a stable phase, with innovative business performance slightly exceeding expectations [4] - The traffic monetization business is developing steadily, and premium games like Alice's Dream: Merge Games are entering a long-term operational phase, contributing to revenue [4] - The social e-commerce platform HeeSay is rapidly developing, enhancing its leading position through user service upgrades and diversified business ecosystems [4] - CITIC Securities projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be RMB 9.51 billion, 12.23 billion, and 15.37 billion, respectively, slightly higher than previous forecasts [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on weight management and healthy eating, driven by the "Weight Management Year" initiative, with significant market potential in the low-sugar, low-fat, and high-fiber food segments [5][20][25] - The tourism sector is expected to see a significant increase in traffic following the official closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, which will implement favorable tax policies [15][18] - The AI-enabled social platform, ZhiZi City Technology, is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 38.0% to 41.5% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance in the social business segment [28][30] - The health food market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, with the market size expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2027, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [22][23][33] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Tourism - Hainan will officially close its borders at the end of 2025, leading to a potential surge in visitor numbers post-closure [15] - The implementation of "zero tariff" policies and low tax rates will enhance Hainan's position as a key processing and value-added base [15][16] 2. Weight Management and Healthy Eating - The prevalence of overweight and obesity in China has surpassed 50%, with over 140 million diabetes patients, creating a sustained demand for low-sugar and low-fat foods [23][26] - The Chinese nutrition and health food market is projected to grow from 3.796 trillion yuan in 2017 to over 8 trillion yuan by 2027 [20][21] 3. AI and Social Platforms - ZhiZi City Technology expects total revenue of 31.35 to 32.15 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 38.0% to 41.5% compared to the same period in 2024 [28][30] - The company's social business is anticipated to generate revenue of 28.00 to 28.60 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.4% to 38.3% [28] 4. Health and Wellness - The global health food market is expected to reach 191.5 billion USD by 2024, with China's health food market projected to grow to 260.2 billion yuan [37][39] - The demand for dietary supplements is increasing, with 64% of health-conscious individuals opting to purchase health products [33][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of new consumption concepts driven by emotional spending, with companies like Zhizicheng Technology (09911.HK) showing significant revenue growth [2] - For the first half of 2025, Zhizicheng Technology expects total revenue between RMB 31.35 billion and RMB 32.15 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.0% to 41.5% [2] - The social business segment is projected to generate revenue between RMB 28.00 billion and RMB 28.60 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 35.4% to 38.3% [2] Group 2 - The innovative business segment is anticipated to see explosive growth, with expected revenue between RMB 3.35 billion and RMB 3.55 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.0% to 74.9% [2] - The growth in social business revenue is attributed to the integration of AI technology, which has led to a diverse range of social products [2] - Key operational metrics such as average online duration per user, ARPU, and payment rates have all shown steady improvement in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - The overseas market for diverse social business continues to develop healthily, with HeeSay solidifying its position in Southeast Asia through community ecosystem operations and brand activities [3] - HeeSay ranked 16th in the Southeast Asia social app revenue chart on Google Play for the first half of the year [3] - The premium gaming business, represented by Alice's Dream: Merge Games, has entered a long-term operational phase, contributing stable profits [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhizi City Technology, is expected to report significant revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in its social and innovative business segments [2][3]. Group 1: Revenue Expectations - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 3.135 billion and 3.215 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.0% to 41.5% [2]. - The social business is expected to generate revenue between 2.8 billion and 2.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.4% to 38.3% [2]. - The innovative business is anticipated to see explosive growth, with revenue expected to be between 335 million and 355 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65.0% to 74.9% [2]. Group 2: Business Performance - The social business has shown high-quality growth, with the "Bush" product matrix thriving in global markets, particularly with strong growth from the latecomer products SUGO and TopTop [2][3]. - Key performance indicators for SUGO, including average revenue per user (ARPU) and payment rates, have steadily improved, with SUGO ranking 7th in social network app revenue in the Middle East [3]. - The company has successfully expanded its market presence in Latin America and Europe, demonstrating good market adaptability for SUGO's product forms and business models [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Future Growth - The company is deepening the application of AI technology in its core business, enhancing customer acquisition, localization, and monetization efficiency [2]. - The innovative business segment, including premium games and social e-commerce, is gradually becoming a clear second growth curve, contributing to steady revenue growth [3]. - The company has accumulated successful experience in the casual gaming sector, leading to shorter game development cycles and improved operational efficiency, which is expected to drive stronger growth in the future [4].

Core Insights - The company expects total revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between RMB 31.35 billion and RMB 32.15 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.0% to 41.5% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The social business continues to show strong performance, with expected revenue between RMB 28.00 billion and RMB 28.60 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.4% to 38.3% [1] - The innovative business is experiencing explosive growth, with expected revenue between RMB 3.35 billion and RMB 3.55 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 65.0% to 74.9% [1] Social Business Development - The social business of the company has maintained high-quality growth, with the "Bush" product matrix thriving in global markets [3] - New products SUGO and TopTop are showing strong growth, while core products MICO and YoHo continue to contribute stable revenue [3] - The growth in social business revenue is attributed to the application of AI technology, enhancing customer acquisition, localization, and monetization efficiency [3] - Key operational metrics for SUGO, including average online duration per user, ARPU, and payment rate, have steadily improved [3] Global Market Expansion - The company is expanding its global market presence, with SUGO showing good market adaptability in Latin America and Europe [5] - The social business targeting diverse demographics continues to develop healthily in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [5] - HeeSay has solidified its position in Southeast Asia, ranking 16th in the Google Play revenue chart for social apps in the region [5] Innovative Business Growth - The company is building a second growth curve through innovative businesses such as premium games and social e-commerce [6] - The premium game business, represented by "Alice's Dream: Merge Games," has entered a long-term operational phase, contributing stable profits [6] - The social e-commerce platform HeeSay is also experiencing rapid growth, maintaining its leading position in HIV prevention and sexual health services [6] Global Strategy - The establishment of the company's global headquarters in Hong Kong marks a new phase in its globalization strategy [7] - The company aims to leverage technology to empower social entertainment and explore diverse development opportunities in global markets [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing investment from insurance funds in the environmental sector, particularly in water and waste management companies, indicating a strong investment value in this sector [2][10][13] - The government policies are expected to further enhance the investment capacity of insurance funds, providing a stable influx of capital into the market [2][10] - The environmental sector is characterized by stable cash flows and strong profitability, driven by essential municipal services and favorable operating models [2][10][13] Summary by Sections Investment Trends - Insurance funds have been actively increasing their stakes in environmental assets, with notable investments in companies like Green Power and China Water Affairs [2][10][13] - The report notes that since 2023, several insurance companies have made significant investments in various water and environmental firms, showcasing the sector's attractiveness [2][10] Financial Performance - The water and waste management sector is described as having stable demand and revenue, with costs primarily related to depreciation and labor, leading to consistent profitability [2][10][13] - The report anticipates improvements in cash flow and dividend payouts as the sector matures, with capital expenditures (Capex) significantly decreasing [3][10][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several A-share and H-share companies in the environmental sector, including Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Everbright Environment, citing their strong profit certainty and improving cash flows [3][10][13] - It emphasizes that investments in environmental assets can yield multiple benefits, including dividends, earnings per share (EPS) growth, and valuation increases [3][10][13]