上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 30 日 赤子城科技 (09911) ——社交先锋，淘金中东 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.83 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8678.3 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 11.50/2.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 138.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,412.18 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0966 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -43% 457% 07/02 08/02 09/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 01/02 02/02 03/02 04/02 05/02 06/02 资料来源：Bloomberg HSCEI 赤子城科技 公 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵航 (8621)23297818× zhaohan ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the overseas internet population dividend and the high growth trend of audio and video social networking, continuously exploring niche market demands and expanding its product matrix to initiate a new growth cycle [1] - Key insight 1: The company's core business advantages include strong organizational capabilities, deep local product operations, a multi-country and multi-product strategy that allows for low marginal costs and rapid iteration, and a diverse product offering that meets various emotional value needs across different social scenarios [1] - Key insight 2: The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is a rare asset, and the launch of the HeeSay brand overseas aims to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the company’s product Blued maintaining a leading position in the domestic LGBTQ social sector [1] Group 2 - Key insight 3: The global casual gaming market is expanding, with the company’s flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Island" projected to achieve a 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024 and potentially become profitable by the fourth quarter of 2024 [2] - Key insight 4: The company has several mobile games in the pipeline, which are expected to contribute additional revenue in the latter half of the year [2] - Financial forecast: The company’s revenue and profit are expected to steadily increase, with projected revenues of 6.6 billion, 8.3 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and corresponding net profits of 980 million, 1.34 billion, and 1.78 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its strong performance and growth potential [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.09 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.92%. The social business revenue reached 4.63 billion RMB, growing by 58.1%, while the innovative business revenue was 460 million RMB, up by 21.3% [1][2]. - The operating profit was 729 million RMB, an increase of 32.3%, and the adjusted EBITDA was 963 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 42.8% [1]. - The company expects to record a revenue of approximately 1.5 to 1.57 billion RMB in Q1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 41.5% to 48.1% [2]. Summary by Sections Social Business Performance - The social business continues to show robust growth, with a revenue of 4.63 billion RMB in 2024, up 58.1%. Key products like MICO and YoHo are contributing significantly, while the new product SUGO has seen revenue growth exceeding 200% [3]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for the social business reached 32.835 million in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [3]. Innovative Business Development - The innovative business, particularly in premium games, has shown significant growth, with total revenue exceeding 705 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 80%. The flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" has also performed well [3]. - The social e-commerce segment has experienced revenue growth exceeding 200% and profit growth over 600% [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high growth in its social and gaming products, with new products in development. The acquisition of remaining shares in NBT Social Networking is anticipated to further enhance profits in 2025 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 903 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.38 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 88.1%, 23.9%, and 23.3% respectively [5].

本报讯 （记者李春莲）近日，中信证券研究部发布赤子城科技有限公司（以下简称"赤子城科技"，09911.HK）投资价值 分析报告，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。作为全球泛娱乐社交领域的龙头，赤子城科技凭借多年海外运营经验，以"产品复制+国 家复制"模式，扎根中东北非，并加速向全球市场扩张，正在进入"产品收获期"，未来前景广阔。 中信证券上述分析师还表示，受益于石油等行业发展，中东北非国家人均GDP较高，但因自然环境、宗教文化习俗等因 素，用户线下社交娱乐受限，对线上社交娱乐有强烈需求。在"有钱有闲"的用户特征加持下，社交应用在中东北非市场空间广 阔。根据Verified Market Research预测，2032年中东媒体和娱乐市场有望达到820亿美元。同时，东南亚市场年轻网民基数大， 伴随着数字化基础设施完善，2025年东南亚数字娱乐GMV有望达34亿美元。 （编辑 李波） 同时，多元人群社交业务在海外市场亦加速拓展。报告还显示，公司的全球化多元人群社交平台HeeSay增长空间较大，后 续有望凭借直播玩法、东南亚/日韩等市场拓展，实现渗透率提升。 在社交业务护城河不断加深的同时，赤子城科技亦通过打造手游与社交电 ...