4、网易云音乐：2025Q3 实现营收20 亿元（YoY-1.8%、QoQ 持平）。 机构：国海证券 研究员：陈梦竹/尹芮 事件: 2025 年11 月20 日公司公告2025Q3 财报，2025Q3 实现营收283.59亿元（YoY+8.2%、QoQ+1.7%）；归 母净利润为86.16 亿元（YoY+31.8%、QoQ+0.2%），non-GAAP 归母净利润为95.02 亿元 （YoY+26.7%、QoQ-0.3%）。 我们的观点： 1、主要财务指标分析：网易2025Q3 实现营业收入283.59 亿元（YoY+8.2%、QoQ+1.7%）；归母净利 润为86.16 亿元（YoY+31.8%、QoQ+0.2%），non-GAAP 归母净利润为95.02 亿元（YoY+26.7%、QoQ- 0.3%）。毛利率同比提升至64.1%（YoY+2.0pct、QoQ-1.0pct），销售费用率15.7%（YoY+8.3pct、 QoQ+22.5pct）、研发费用率16.0%（YoY-5.1pct、QoQ+2.5pct）、管理费用率4.1%（YoY-2.2pct、 QoQ+8.4pct）。 2 、游戏业务： 202 ...

拼多多 PDD.O 公司研究 | 季报点评 外部负向影响减弱，基本面边际向好 ——拼多多 25Q3 季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年实现收入 4349/5045/5536 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 4477/4980/5401亿元），预计实现Non-GAAP归母净利润1168/1436/1688亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 1220/1469/1612 亿元）。采用 SOTP 估值计算公司合理估值为 2544 亿 USD（18031 亿 CNY），给予拼多多目标价 179.21 美元/ADS，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、海外业务政策风险、宏观经济不景气。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 247,639 | 393,836 | 434,885 | 504,513 | 553,555 | | 同比增长 (%) | 90% | 59% | 10% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 299.1 billion RMB, which exceeded both the consensus and the firm's expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56.0% year-on-year, but still better than expected due to better-than-expected operating profit in the retail segment and non-recurring gains [1] - The report highlights the improvement in operational efficiency and the potential for narrowing losses in the food delivery segment, alongside a robust growth trend in daily necessities sales [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for JD Retail in Q3 2025 was 250.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and operating profit of 14.8 billion RMB, up 27.7% [2][11] - The report notes that the revenue from the electronic products category grew by 4.9% to 128.6 billion RMB, while daily necessities saw an 18.8% increase to 97.5 billion RMB [2] User Growth and Engagement - Active user numbers grew by 40% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with annual active users surpassing 700 million [3] - The frequency of purchases per user also increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating improved user engagement [3] Operational Efficiency - The food delivery segment achieved a double-digit growth in GMV quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased order volume and improved order structure [3] - The report emphasizes the narrowing of overall operating losses in the food delivery business, attributed to enhanced supply chain efficiency and disciplined investment [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 30.5 billion RMB in 2025, 38.1 billion RMB in 2026, and 51.1 billion RMB in 2027 [4][18] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 51.04 USD per ADS and 198.32 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a valuation multiple of 17.2x, 13.7x, and 10.2x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [21][23]

Summary of Baidu's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu - **Date**: September 17, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Valuation - Baidu's current market capitalization is undervalued, with a remaining valuation of only 10.9 billion RMB after deducting net cash, investment assets, and cloud business valuation [2][3][4] - The SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) valuation method indicates significant investment opportunities as the market shifts from packaged PE multiples to SOTP distribution valuation [3][5] Advertising Business Developments - AI transformation in Baidu's advertising business is notable, with 64% of search content generated by AI as of July 2024, enhancing user experience and driving MAU growth [2][5][6] - AI Agent's contribution to core advertising revenue rose from 9% in Q1 2025 to 13% in Q2 2025, while digital human advertising accounted for 3% [2][7] - Total expected AI-related advertising revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 8 to 10 billion RMB [2][7] Kunlun Chip Business - Kunlun chip shipments are expected to reach 69,000 units in 2024, ranking third among domestic chip manufacturers [2][9] - Strategic partnerships include a 1 billion RMB order from China Mobile and collaboration with China Merchants Group, with anticipated external revenue of 6 to 7 billion RMB in 2025 [2][9] Autonomous Driving Business - The "Luobo Kuaipao" fleet has surpassed 1,000 vehicles, with daily order volumes expected to exceed 200,000 in Q3 2025 [2][10] - The latest model, RT6, has a manufacturing cost reduced to approximately 30,000 USD, providing a competitive edge for overseas market expansion [2][10] Cloud and Personal Cloud Services - Baidu Cloud is a leading internet cloud service provider with full-stack capabilities, benefiting from increased AI demand across industries [8] - Innovations in personal cloud services, such as enhanced features in cloud storage and document services, are expected to improve user engagement and profitability [8] Governance and Management Changes - The appointment of new CFO Han Rui, who has extensive capital market experience, is viewed positively and is expected to contribute to the company's future development [5] Future Valuation Considerations - The valuation of Baidu is expected to increase as the potential of its business segments becomes more recognized, with a target price raised to over 200 RMB [4][13] - The company holds net cash of 155.1 billion RMB, providing a safety margin for overall valuation [12] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor Baidu's business developments in the near term, as the company is positioned for potential valuation reappraisal similar to Alibaba's recent experience [15][16] Additional Insights - The significant progress in AI-related businesses and the introduction of new advertising tools are crucial for Baidu's growth trajectory [6][7] - The overall market perception of Baidu's business potential has shifted, indicating a broader recognition of its value [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase (NTES US) with a target price of $153.19, reflecting a 17.9x PE for the year 2025 [7][27]. Core Insights - NetEase's total revenue for Q2 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year to 27.9 billion RMB, slightly below consensus expectations by 1% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 22% year-on-year to 9.53 billion RMB, aligning with consensus expectations [1][2]. - The gaming segment's revenue showed a 15% year-on-year increase to 22.1 billion RMB, although it was slightly below expectations [2][3]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new games, including "Destiny: Stars" and "Diablo II" remastered, which are expected to drive future growth [1][4][13]. Revenue and Profitability - Q2 gaming and value-added services revenue rose by 14% year-on-year to 22.8 billion RMB, with gaming revenue specifically increasing by 15% [2][3]. - Deferred revenue for Q2 exceeded expectations, decreasing by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 17 billion RMB [2]. - The gross margin for gaming and value-added services improved by 1.4 percentage points to 70.2% [2][12]. Game Development and Market Position - The company launched nine new games in May 2025, with significant titles in the pipeline, including "Destiny: Stars" and "Diablo II" remastered [3][4][13]. - The online peak for "Fantasy Westward Journey" reached 2.93 million users, marking a historical high [3]. - The mobile gaming segment is expected to see a recovery due to a low base in the second half of the year, with anticipated growth driven by summer activities and new releases [4][23]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards, with total revenue expected to be 115.5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 0.9% decrease [6][23]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 38.9 billion RMB, 43 billion RMB, and 48 billion RMB respectively [6][23]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to be 35.8% for Q2 2025, indicating a healthy profitability outlook [24].

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group's stock has dropped over 4%, currently at 51.6 HKD with a trading volume of 7.465 billion HKD [1] - In July, Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 30,000 units, attributed to increased production capacity [1] - Guosen Securities reports that Xiaomi's Beijing factory phase two is about to commence production, with new capacity being planned [1] Group 2 - Future sales projections for Xiaomi's vehicles are estimated at 400,000 to 500,000 units in 2025, and potentially over 800,000 units in 2026 [1] - Reports indicate that Xiaomi is requiring users to pay the remaining balance in advance, or production will be suspended, with no official comment from the company [1] - Nomura has raised Xiaomi's target price by 79% to 61 HKD based on SOTP valuation, but downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [1] Group 3 - Nomura anticipates challenges for Xiaomi in the coming quarters, including lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and high sales base for IoT since the second half of 2024 [1] - Despite strong performance in the electric vehicle sector, market expectations remain high [1] - Jefferies noted a significant slowdown in the average selling price growth of Xiaomi's flagship smartphones in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating potential pressure on Q2 performance due to weak smartphone demand and high inventory [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock has dropped over 4%, currently trading at 51.6 HKD, with a trading volume of 7.465 billion HKD. The decline comes despite an increase in electric vehicle deliveries, which exceeded 30,000 units in July due to enhanced production capacity [1]. Group 1: Electric Vehicle Performance - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries in July surpassed 30,000 units, attributed to increased production capacity [1]. - The second phase of Xiaomi's Beijing factory is set to commence production, with new capacity being planned [1]. - Projections indicate that Xiaomi's electric vehicle sales could reach between 400,000 to 500,000 units by 2025, and potentially exceed 800,000 units by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - Nomura has raised Xiaomi Group's target price by 79% to 61 HKD based on SOTP valuation, but downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [1]. - Future challenges for the group include lower-than-expected smartphone shipments, high sales base for IoT products since the second half of 2024, and elevated market expectations for the electric vehicle segment [1]. - Jefferies noted a significant slowdown in the average selling price growth of Xiaomi's flagship smartphones in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating potential pressure on the company's Q2 performance due to weak smartphone demand and high inventory levels [1].

Group 1: TAL Education (好未来教育) - The K12 education training business is performing steadily with a revenue of $580 million for Q1 FY2026, representing a 39% year-over-year increase. Adjusted operating profit reached $25 million, exceeding expectations [1] - The strong demand for small class tutoring and increased enrollment due to the expansion of teaching points are driving revenue growth. Sales of learning machines also showed healthy year-over-year growth, supported by the launch of new products [1] - For Q2 FY2026, the overall revenue growth is expected to be around 30%, maintaining the full-year revenue growth forecast at 28% with an adjusted operating profit margin projected to exceed 7%, doubling from FY2025 [1][2] Group 2: NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) - The pricing strategy for the L90 model is aggressive, with the starting price set at RMB 265,800, which is lower than the previously announced pre-sale price. This pricing is expected to boost sales significantly [3] - The successful launch of the L90 model is anticipated to lead to stable monthly sales exceeding the market expectation of 5,000 units, paving the way for the upcoming L80 model [3][4] - Despite a 50% rebound from its low, NIO's 2025 price-to-sales ratio remains at 0.85, which is lower than its peers, indicating potential for continued stock price recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $135.58 per ADS [5][12]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Pinduoduo fell short of expectations, with revenue of CNY 956.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY 1,016.0 billion [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was CNY 169.2 billion, a significant decline of 44.7% year-over-year, also missing the consensus estimate of CNY 278.8 billion [9]. - The report highlights that while advertising revenue showed good performance, commission income was under pressure due to increased merchant support policies and adjustments in the Temu business [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are adjusted to CNY 4,403 billion, CNY 4,883 billion, and CNY 5,250 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to CNY 1,072 billion, CNY 1,317 billion, and CNY 1,499 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main e-commerce platform's value at $143.9 billion, the Duoduo grocery business at $5.9 billion, and the Temu business at $42.7 billion [12][14]. Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is CNY 440,349 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12% [10]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is CNY 112,152 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 61.1% and a net margin of 22.1% for 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][26]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year to 28.8 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - Game and value-added services revenue grew by 12% year-on-year to 24 billion RMB, with PC game revenue significantly outperforming expectations, increasing by 85% year-on-year [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 32% year-on-year to 11.2 billion RMB, surpassing expectations by 19% due to improved expense management [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company expects Q2 and full-year 2025 PC game revenue to grow by 60% and 40% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The gross margin for game and value-added services improved to 68.8%, driven by the high margin of new game releases [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised to 39.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 4.7% increase from previous estimates [4][22]. Game Releases and Market Performance - The new game "Marvel: Clash" is anticipated to become a long-term revenue generator, with an average of 120,000 concurrent players on Steam in April [1][2]. - The mobile game "Seven Days World" launched globally on April 24, achieving top rankings in 166 countries, although its revenue contribution remains limited [3][15]. - The report highlights the potential of upcoming titles such as "Destiny: Rise" and "Infinite" in the second half of the year [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 1%, 2.4%, and 4.2%, respectively, primarily due to increased contributions from PC games [4][22]. - The adjusted net profit for 2026 and 2027 is forecasted to be 42.9 billion RMB and 47.9 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory [4][22]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 148.25 USD, corresponding to a 17.2x PE ratio for 2025 [7][26].