Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of May 16, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.7, up 0.17% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.36, up 0.2%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 91.42, up 0.31% [1][2] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2103, appreciating by 358 points or 0.49% for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2098, appreciating by 304 points or 0.42% [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1938, with a cumulative increase of 157 points or 0.22% for the week [5] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent US-China trade talks led to significant consensus, providing support for the RMB exchange rate, while the middle rate remained relatively stable [5] - The RMB's depreciation pressure has significantly eased, and further appreciation will depend on future policy guidance [6] - Changes in exporters' foreign exchange settlement behavior will be crucial for the RMB exchange rate, as companies have retained substantial high-interest USD deposits [6] International Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a loss of the highest rating across all three major international credit rating agencies [7] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index for May was reported at 50.8, below expectations of 53.4 [7] - The US April PPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% [7] Financial Policies - The Chinese government has introduced new policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, focusing on venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies, introducing several new regulatory frameworks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has recently reversed its trend, with spot gold rising over 1% on May 19, reaching $3,240.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.93% to $3,248.6 per ounce [1][5]. Price Movements - As of May 19, spot gold was reported at $3,240.68 per ounce, showing a daily increase of $38.9 or 1.21% [3]. - COMEX gold futures closed at $3,248.6 per ounce, up $61.4 or 1.93% from the previous close of $3,187.2 [2]. Recent Trends - The gold price had previously peaked at approximately $3,430 per ounce on May 7, followed by a significant decline, including a drop of about $72 per ounce on May 14, marking a daily decrease of 2.23% [5]. - Factors contributing to the recent decline included improved market risk appetite following U.S.-China trade talks and a noticeable outflow from global gold ETFs due to profit-taking [5]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices reflects a short-term bearish sentiment influenced by trade easing, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, and technical overbought conditions [6]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing concerns about U.S. dollar credit risk and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [6].

穆迪认为，美国政府当前财政支出计划无法让强制性支出和赤字在未来出现实质性减少。该机构预计，如果不调整税收和支出，美国预算灵活性仍将有 限，包括利息在内的强制性支出占总支出的比例将从2024年的73%左右升至2035年的78%左右。如果美国国会2017年通过的《减税与就业法案》得以延 长，未来10年内，扣除利息支出后的美国联邦财政赤字将增加约4万亿美元，美国联邦政府债务占国内生产总值（GDP）比重到2035年将升至134%。 摩根大通策略师Jay Barry在一份报告中表示，长期来看，穆迪下调美国评级可能会导致利息支出增加，此举将使美债相对于匹配期限的隔夜指数掉期 （OIS）价格走低。 该策略师表示，鉴于需求格局发生结构性转变，贸易和货币政策存在不确定性，短期内风险倾向于熊陡。这一事件导致的波动程度应该会比4月初关税公 告后出现的波动更小，因为投资者的仓位现在更加中性，而且不太可能像上个月那样出现夸大基本面的市场波动。 报告还称，在其他条件相同的情况下，穆迪此次下调评级，会使30年期掉期利差缩小约5个基点。然而，美债似乎已经显示出比其他类似评级的发达市场 主权债券更高的风险溢价，这表明价格降低的幅度可能比这些系 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to the increasing scale of government debt and interest payments, while adjusting the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Moody's is the latest credit rating agency to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, following Fitch's downgrade to AA+ in August 2023 and S&P's downgrade to AA+ in August 2011 [1] - The downgrades are closely associated with the U.S. debt ceiling approaching the "X date," raising concerns about fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Moody's expressed concerns about the current fiscal situation and future budget plans, predicting that by 2035, U.S. federal debt will reach 134% of GDP and the federal deficit could rise to 9% of GDP [1][2] - The agency noted that mandatory spending, including interest payments, will increase from 73% of total government spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, limiting budget flexibility for other public investments [2] Group 3: Current Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing by June 2025 [2] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of FY2025 has already exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for that period in history [2] Group 4: Political Context - The current fiscal challenges are described as long-term issues rather than short-term problems created by the current administration, with efforts underway to reduce federal spending and promote economic growth [3] - There are concerns regarding the objectivity of credit rating analysts, with political affiliations being questioned, although such claims may serve to divert attention from underlying fiscal issues [3]

韩国财政部：预计穆迪下调美国评级带来的市场冲击有限；将密切注意金融市场及汇市。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. 30-year Treasury futures fell by 21 points, while the 10-year Treasury futures decreased by 7 points [2] - WTI crude oil futures saw a decline of up to 1%, settling at $61.30 per barrel [2] - As of the latest update, NYMEX crude oil prices narrowed their decline to 0.11% [3] Group 2 - Spot gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3,239.5 per ounce [4] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in Treasury bonds maturing this year [8] - The U.S. federal budget deficit exceeded $1.3 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year 2025, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [8] Group 3 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increased government debt and interest payments [7] - The downgrade reflects a significant rise in the ratio of U.S. government debt and interest payments compared to similarly rated countries [7] - Moody's projects that mandatory spending, including interest, will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035 [7]

穆迪下调美国信用评级 美股期指集体下挫 智通财经5月19日电，周一亚太盘初，纳指期货跌0.8%，标普500指数期货、道指期货跌0.7%。此前， 穆迪将美国信用评级由AAA下调至AA1。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by major credit rating agencies signals that U.S. government debt may no longer be considered a risk-free asset [2][3]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with a stable outlook, following similar actions by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings [2][3]. - The downgrades are closely linked to the unsustainable nature of U.S. government debt, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 6.4% in 2024 to 9% by 2035 [2][3]. - Mandatory spending, including interest payments, is expected to account for 78% of total government spending by 2035, up from 73% in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The current downgrade is unlikely to trigger immediate panic in the markets, unlike the 2011 downgrade, due to relaxed conditions for eligible collateral [3]. - However, the downgrade increases risk exposure in the market, as the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy remains a concern [3][4]. - If U.S. debt is no longer viewed as a safe asset, it could lead to a steep rise in U.S. Treasury yields, increasing the risk premium for global financial markets [4]. Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The downgrade could hinder global economic growth and raise liquidity costs for emerging economies, increasing their risk pressures [4]. - The loss of the highest credit rating for U.S. debt may destabilize the global financial market, which relies on U.S. Treasuries as a stability anchor [4][5]. - The need for bipartisan cooperation in U.S. fiscal policy is emphasized to restore the sovereign credit rating to its highest level [4][5]. Group 4: Investor Considerations - Investors holding significant dollar-denominated assets are advised to conduct risk assessments and adjust their asset allocations accordingly [5]. - The downgrade serves as a warning for the U.S. government to address its fiscal responsibilities and move towards a sustainable fiscal path [5].

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings Overview - As of March, foreign countries and regions held $90,495 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, with a month-over-month increase of $2,331 billion [1] - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, increasing its holdings by $49 billion to $1,130.8 billion, marking the third consecutive month of increases [1][7] - China reduced its holdings by $189 billion, bringing its total to $765.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2][5] Group 2: Changes in Major Holders - The United Kingdom increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $289 billion to $779.3 billion, surpassing China to become the second-largest holder [2][6] - In March, total net inflows into U.S. securities and bank cash from overseas reached $2,543 billion, with private funds contributing $2,592 billion and official funds experiencing a net outflow of $49 billion [3][4] Group 3: Investment Trends and Motivations - In March, overseas net purchases of U.S. long-term securities amounted to $1,832 billion, with private investors net buying $1,460 billion and official institutions net buying $373 billion [4] - Japan's motivations for increasing its U.S. Treasury holdings include currency intervention, leveraging its holdings in trade negotiations, and adjustments in monetary policy [8][9][10] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Challenges - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increasing budget deficits and rising costs of debt refinancing under high interest rates [13][14] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a fiscal deficit exceeding $1.3 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year, marking the second-highest deficit on record [17]