2020-2025年1-10月中国煤油产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：镇海股份（603637），中国石化（600028） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国煤油行业市场运行格局及产业前景研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国煤油产量为516万吨，同比增长14.7%；2025年1-10月中国煤 油累计产量为4978.6万吨，累计增长5%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current operating rate of independent refineries is at a low level with limited downward space. The combination of the return of major refinery capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period is expected to restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation, and the weak oscillation of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - sided price [15]. - In the short term, the weakness of asphalt persists, but the marginal contradiction between supply and demand has eased, so it is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are fluctuations such as supply - demand increase, cost decrease, and supply - demand decrease at different times [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while independent refineries will remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term. On the demand side, the start - up rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. For the cost factor, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central oscillation range is expected to move down slightly [15]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: The start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising, and overall imports are strong; demand - side sub - items are weak, and downstream shipments are dull; the inventory shows difficulty in destocking; the crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak oscillation phase [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [19][22][26][30]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - **Term Structure**: It includes the term structure of asphalt, the price differences between different contracts (such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, 03 - 06), and their historical trends from 2022 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the trends of asphalt capacity utilization, production profit in Shandong, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - **Imports**: It includes the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions (such as South China - Singapore, East China - South Korea), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) from 2021 to 2025 [54][56][61]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It presents the trends of the fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent ratios from 2021 to 2025 [64]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profit trends of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit trends of petroleum coke from 2021 to 2025 [67][70]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It includes the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [75]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract from 2021 to 2025 [78]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It presents the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [86]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It includes the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [97][100]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative highway construction investment, monthly transportation fiscal expenditure, and their relationship with asphalt demand from 2021 to 2025 [102][109]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It includes the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and their relationship with highway construction investment from 2021 to 2025 [114][117]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds from 2021 to 2025 [120][121]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trends of asphalt trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility from 2021 to 2025 [128][129][131]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It involves exploration and extraction links [135][136]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From a production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into five types, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used for road construction. According to its use, it can be divided into three types, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [139].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the asphalt futures price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The supply side may see a slight increase in the asphalt operating rate, while the demand side will further weaken as road construction in the north gradually winds down due to the dropping temperature and the incremental projects in the south are limited. Currently, the market is cautious about the winter storage contracts, and the price in Shandong has been falling, with the basis remaining at a neutral level [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 34.4 million tons (13.8%) year-on-year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends this week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased by 7.06% to 280,600 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. The distillation unit in Venezuela's Jose Industrial Zone has been shut down, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. Next week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, which will slightly increase the asphalt operating rate [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.30% to 2,948 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,958 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 13,629 to 90,743 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong continued to decline to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to -18 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year [4]. - From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. The actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry from January to October 2025 was -4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October 2025 was -0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared to the week of November 28, and it is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt supply is expected to slightly increase as some refineries resume production, while demand will weaken further due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 34.4 million tons year-on-year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined last week. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.74% to 26.21 million tons week-on-week, at a neutral level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price oscillated at a low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened. This week, the asphalt operating rate will slightly increase, but overall demand will be weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has been falling, and the basis is at a neutral level. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 1.06% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,941 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 2,972 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 8,340 to 104,372 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price of asphalt in Shandong continued to fall to 2,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to October decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was flat compared with that from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry from January to October decreased by 4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed assets investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September. As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 5 percentage points to 29% week-on-week. From the perspective of social financing stock, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock from January to October was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations. In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt supply is expected to increase slightly, with开工率 rising due to some refineries resuming production and others switching production. However, demand will weaken further as road construction in the north winds down with the dropping temperature and project growth in the south is limited. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts. Overall, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, while others plan to resume production, and the开工 rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand side: Last week, most downstream industries'开工率 declined, with road asphalt开工率 dropping by 5 percentage points to 29% due to funding and weather constraints. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and overall demand will be weak [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat week - on - week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Crude oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace negotiation in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under US military threats [1]. - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong has declined recently, and the basis is at a neutral level. Some refineries have started to release winter storage contracts, but the market is cautious [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.41% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,884 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,957 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 23,392 to 112,712 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has continued to decline to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to - 2 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to October was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4].

恒力石化公告称，近日接到控股股东恒力集团之一致行动人恒能投资通知，其办理了部分股份质押及解 除质押业务。恒能投资于12月2日质押5500万股给兴业国际信托，占其所持股份3.67%，用于补充流动 资金，为恒力集团融资提供担保；同日解除质押6800万股，占其所持股份4.54%。截至公告披露日，控 股股东及其一致行动人合计持股53.11亿股，占比75.45%，累计质押16.90亿股，占其所持股份31.83%， 占总股本24.01%。本次质押风险可控，不影响公司实际控制权。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures prices are experiencing a continuous decline due to dual pressures from costs and demand, with oversupply expectations weakening cost support from international crude oil prices and a decrease in demand as northern regions conclude their construction activities [1][3][9]. Group 1: Cost Factors - The expectation of oversupply has led to a downward shift in international crude oil prices, reducing cost support for asphalt [1][2]. - As of November 30, the average capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 34.0%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The asphalt production in November is estimated at 2.23 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [3]. Group 2: Demand Factors - With the temperature dropping, the construction demand in northern regions is tapering off, leading to intensified competition in the spot market for limited demand [1][6]. - The overall demand is expected to decline as northern regions weaken while southern regions maintain relatively stable demand [6][9]. - As of December 1, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample plants in China was 626,000 tons, a decrease of 14.01% from the end of October [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The asphalt market is characterized by low price fluctuations and weak supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the winter storage market [8][9]. - The current market prices for 70 asphalt in various regions are reported as follows: Shandong and Hebei at 2960-2970 CNY/ton, Guangdong at 3030 CNY/ton, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang at 3150-3220 CNY/ton [8]. - There are differing opinions on the winter storage market, with some believing that refinery profit conditions may allow for larger storage volumes than last year, while others anticipate constraints due to weak international crude oil prices and subdued market demand expectations [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price trends. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand will further weaken, and the current market is cautious about winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, and the operating rate will rise slightly. [1] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt operating rate dropped by 5 percentage points to 29% due to capital and weather constraints. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is ending, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years. [1] - Crude Oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 2.41% to 2,916 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,910 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,983 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 14,100 to 136,104 lots. [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 2,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 44 yuan/ton, at a neutral level. [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to October was - 4.3%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%. [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. [4]

Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical sector indices showed positive performance with the chemical raw materials index rising by 3.25%, chemical machinery index increasing by 5.98%, pharmaceutical index up by 3.18%, and pesticide and fertilizer index climbing by 2.44% [1] - In contrast, the oil sector indices experienced declines, with the oil processing index down by 1.86% and the oil extraction index decreasing by 2.50%, while the oil trading index rose by 3.37% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices experienced slight declines, with WTI settling at $58.55 per barrel, down 0.17% from November 21, and Brent settling at $63.20 per barrel, down 0.22% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included liquid chlorine up by 11.11%, octanol up by 7.85%, propane up by 6.57%, lithium battery electrolyte up by 6.48%, and recycled polyamide up by 5.61% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products were polytetrafluoroethylene dispersion emulsion down by 7.41%, diethylene glycol down by 6.85%, tetrachloroethylene down by 6.19%, propylene oxide down by 4.77%, and butadiene down by 4.54% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five gaining listed chemical companies included Xinjinlu up by 41.04%, Daoming Optics up by 30.26%, Yuanli Technology up by 25.44%, Longpan Technology up by 23.77%, and Songjing Co. up by 19.91% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies were Guofeng Plastics down by 12.10%, Beihua Co. down by 11.59%, Tongcheng New Materials down by 7.60%, Xingye Co. down by 7.23%, and Tongyi Co. down by 6.88% [2]

证券日报网讯 12月1日，国际实业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年11月28日公司股东人 数为38236户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...