锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,732.00 | -4.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,462.00 | +18.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 636,717.00 | +6082.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 476,898.00 | +6021.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -22,484.00 | +3621.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -24,211.00 | +655.00↑ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 46.00 | -2.00↓ SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 22.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 24,664.00 | +136.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 13,327.00 | -41.00↓ | | | 内蒙古锰 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon iron market is experiencing bottom - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment shocks, while the manganese silicon market is in wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies maintain firm price quotes [1]. - The trend intensity of both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2603 and 2605 are 5444 and 5406 respectively, down 30 from the previous trading day; the closing prices of manganese silicon 2603 and 2605 are 5736 and 5776 respectively, down 22 and 20 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5150 yuan/ton, down 20; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5530 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Differences**: The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 03 futures) is - 294 yuan/ton, up 10; the spot - futures spread of manganese silicon (spot - 03 futures) is - 206 yuan/ton, up 22. The near - far month spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 is 38 yuan/ton, unchanged; the near - far month spread of manganese silicon 2603 - 2605 is - 40 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2603 - silicon iron 2603 is 292 yuan/ton, up 8; the cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 is 370 yuan/ton, up 10 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Prices**: On December 8, the prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions were reported, with some prices down 25 yuan/ton. The prices of 75 silicon iron and silicon manganese 6517 in different regions were also provided. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron decreased [2]. - **Manganese Ore Quotes**: Joint Mining (CML) and Comilog announced their January 2026 quotes for China, with both up 0.2 US dollars/ton - degree compared to the previous month [2][3]. - **Steel Group Procurement**: Hegang's December silicon iron inquiry price is 5600 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from November, with the quantity increased by 34 tons to 2750 tons. A large steel group in Hebei reduced its December silicon manganese procurement by 1300 tons to 14700 tons [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on December 9, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5100 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and week; Inner Mongolia 72 was 5150 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day and week; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 US dollars from the previous week [2]. - For silicon manganese, on December 9, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese alloy was 5530 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and week; Ningxia 6517 was 5510 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [2]. Supply - The report presents historical data on the output of 136 silicon - ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly and weekly, with a capacity share of 95%), and the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon - ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) [4]. - It also shows historical data on the weekly output of silicon manganese in China [6]. Demand - The report provides historical data on the estimated and revised production volume of crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly, in ten thousand tons), and other data related to the demand for ferroalloys [4]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it includes historical data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), the total number of warehouse receipts of silicon ferroalloy on CZCE (daily), and the average available inventory days in different regions [5]. - For silicon manganese, it shows historical data on the total number of warehouse receipts of silicon manganese on CZCE (daily), the total number of valid forecasts (daily), and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the report presents historical data on electricity prices in different regions, the market mainstream price of semi - coking coal, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - For silicon manganese, it shows historical data on the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (in yuan per ton) and other related cost - profit data [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday. Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the prices of finished steel products remained in a bottom - oscillating state. Terminal demand was still weak, but steel prices were gradually stabilizing. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was still prominent and difficult to significantly reduce in the short term. [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. There is still pressure for a phased decline within the price range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be at 750 yuan/ton. [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the trading focus is expected to return to the macro level. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] - The price of industrial silicon is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - The polysilicon market shows a situation of tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish approach is recommended. [18] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 46,276 tons, a net increase of 2135 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.477577 million lots, a net increase of 3036 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.078676 million lots, a net increase of 11,932 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar production decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. [2] - The production of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the apparent demand remained neutral. It was difficult to reduce the inventory, and the social inventory was still at a relatively high level. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.11% (-8.50). The position changed by +20,646 lots to 429,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 928,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.17 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.67%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. In Australia, shipments stopped falling and increased, mainly due to the rebound in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment volume from Brazil decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline from Vale. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. [5] - In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output according to the latest Steel Union data was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those being restarted, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability rate of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, and the number of profitable steel mills was still less than 40%. [5] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 8, coking coal led the decline, and the black sector continued to weaken. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell in the morning and then rebounded in an oscillating manner, closing down 0.38% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a premium of 174 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.55% at 5444 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day, with a premium of 156 yuan/ton over the futures price. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The trading focus is expected to return to the macro level before the occurrence of intensive macro - events. The subsequent deployment of next year's economic work in the Central Economic Work Conference and potential policy expectations will become the trading focus of the black sector in the future. [9] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.48% (-130). The weighted contract position changed by +18,060 lots to 459,193 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the quoted price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 625 yuan/ton for 553 and 225 yuan/ton for 421. [11] - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 54,545 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.74% (-965). The weighted contract position changed by -1298 lots to 258,624 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The basis of the main contract was -2245 yuan/ton. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a weak trend in the short term. In November, affected by the increase in costs during the dry season, the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased significantly, and the total output decreased. It is expected that the output in the southwest region will continue to decline in December, and the overall output may continue to decline compared to November. The demand weakened slightly, and the supply - demand pattern showed a double - weak situation with no prominent contradictions. The price is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - For polysilicon, the production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the expected capacity ramp - up and start - up of some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, while upstream silicon enterprises maintained price support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1002 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, an increase of 0.80% (+8). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China remained unchanged at 1110 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 25,830 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,031 lots. [17] - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1133 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, a decrease of 0.35% (-4). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1123 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 12,800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 27,379 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 38,430 lots. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - In November, multiple production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in daily melting capacity. From the perspective of the real estate sector, the industry still faces downward pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes. [18] - For soda ash, the overall industry operating rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still large. The demand was relatively flat, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The production enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders and had a strong intention to stabilize prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be officially put into production on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the soda ash market. The market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 8, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5444, down 0.55%, with an increase of 4446 in positions, while the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5736, down 0.38%, with an increase of 7356 in positions [5]. - For silicon ferroalloy, the spot price on the 8th was stable with a slight weakness, and the supply is expected to decrease again due to increased losses of manufacturers after the November electricity price settlement. The demand for silicon ferroalloy is weakening as steel production continues to decline. Although the cost side has pushed up the price, it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom under demand suppression [5]. - For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot was generally stable on the 8th, and the manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight weakness. The supply of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the demand was dragged down by the weakening steel production. The cost side has increased due to the low port inventory of manganese ore and the rising overseas mine quotes. It may rebound in the short - term but will mainly oscillate at the bottom due to future demand pressure [5]. - The trading strategies include: for unilateral trading, it will operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern with cost support but future demand pressure; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5444, down 30 from the previous day and 22 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 414480 (an increase of 10957) and an open interest of 262736 (an increase of 4446). The SM main contract closed at 5736, down 22 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 265067 (an increase of 102578) and an open interest of 271282 (an increase of 7356) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5230, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5200, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5250, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 5400, unchanged from the previous day but down 100 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, unchanged from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The spot price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5530, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5510, down 10 from the previous day; in Guangxi, it was 5550, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 5680, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, down 20 from the previous day but up 20 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: For silicon ferroalloy, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 214, up 10 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week; for manganese silicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 206, up 22 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week. The SF - SM spread was - 292, down 8 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Australian manganese ore (Tianjin) was 41.5, unchanged from the previous day but up 1.5 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.2, unchanged from the previous day but down 0.1 from the previous week; Gabonese ore was 43.5, unchanged from the previous day but up 1.5 from the previous week. The price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi was 820, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged [3]. Second Part: Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: As mentioned above, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [6]. - **Important Information**: Comilog announced its January 2026 offer price for Gabonese ore to China at $4.7 per ton - degree, up $0.2 from the previous month. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026 [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the ferroalloy main contract price trend, SF - SM spread, monthly spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [11][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][23][24][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, last week the double - silicon futures prices stopped falling and rebounded at a low level. In November, the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased steadily, and the year - end production pressure on enterprises increased, leading to a warmer market expectation. Fundamentally, last week, the supply of ferrosilicon increased while the demand decreased. The previously - overhauled manufacturers resumed production, and the factory inventory stopped falling and rebounded. At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, and the prices fluctuate weakly following the black series. However, the alloy industry has been in continuous losses for several months, and there is no driving force for the prices to continue falling. The idea of hedging against price rebounds in the industry remains unchanged. On the night of last Friday, the double - coke prices dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of loose supply and demand dragged down the alloy prices. In the short term, the alloy trend is weak, waiting for new macro - industrial drivers [4]. - For silicomanganese, last week the double - silicon futures prices stopped falling and rebounded at a low level. In November, the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased steadily, and the year - end production pressure on enterprises increased, leading to a warmer market expectation. Fundamentally, last week, the supply and demand of silicomanganese both decreased. The production cost in the southwest region was seriously inverted, and the production in the Yunnan - Guizhou production areas was significantly reduced. The steel mill demand was weak, and a new round of steel procurement was in progress. Attention should be paid to the quantity and price performance. The silicomanganese factory inventory continued to reach new highs, strongly suppressing price rebounds. At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, and the prices fluctuate weakly following the black series. On the night of last Friday, the double - coke prices dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of loose supply and demand dragged down the alloy prices. In the short term, the alloy trend is weak, waiting for new macro - industrial drivers [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 108,800 tons (a 1.5% increase from the previous week and a 9.5% decrease year - on - year). In November 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 471,100 tons (a 6.78% decrease from the previous month and a 7.71% decrease year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 18,700 tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 882,950 tons (a 3.13% decrease from the previous week and a 3.75% decrease year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 72,600 tons (a 1.13% increase from the previous week and a 0.76% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory in November was 15.8 days (an increase of 0.13 days from the previous month and an increase of 1.5 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - The cost was stable. For example, in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai, although there were some small fluctuations in profit and cost, the raw material prices such as silica and oxidation iron scale remained unchanged in most cases. The cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5,877.22 yuan/ton on December 5, 2025, a 0.23% increase from the previous week [15]. Basis - The ferrosilicon basis (Ningxia) for the 03 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 13,588 (an increase of 2,681 from the previous week and an increase of 6,720 year - on - year) [18]. Silicomanganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 187,900 tons (a 3.5% decrease from the previous week and a 3.6% decrease year - on - year). In November, the national silicomanganese output was 848,800 tons (a 7.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.1% increase year - on - year) [25]. Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 116,600 tons (a 4.2% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 882,950 tons (a 3.13% decrease from the previous week and a 3.75% decrease year - on - year) [27]. Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 375,500 tons (a 2% increase from the previous week and an 87.7% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory in November was 15.8 days (an increase of 0.14 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.99 days year - on - year) [30]. Cost - The manganese ore price was strong. For example, the price of Tianjin Port Australian ore (Mn45%) was 41.5 yuan/ton - degree on December 5, 2025, a 3.75% increase from the previous week. The cost of silicomanganese in Ningxia was 5,955.19 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the previous week [36]. Basis - The silicomanganese warehouse receipt quantity was 21,207 (an increase of 6,449 from the previous week and a decrease of 29,169 year - on - year). The silicomanganese basis (Inner Mongolia) for the 03 contract was 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton from the previous week [32].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5100 | 0 | 0 | 5400 | 主力合约 | 5474 | -72 | 84 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5170 | 0 | 50 | 5520 | 01合约 | 5402 | -66 | 26 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | 0 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5436 | -70 | 90 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | 0 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5496 | -66 | 72 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | -50 | -100 | | 主力月基差 | -74 | 72 | -84 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of alloy raw materials has increased, and the futures prices have shown strong performance. However, the resumption of production by large silicon - iron manufacturers may continue the previous pattern of loose supply and demand. There are also signs of potential loosening in the cost side, and attention should be paid to the supply changes in the alloy sector [3][5]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable, with the domestic official manufacturing PMI rising in November and the expected central economic work conference, along with overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Microscopically, the iron - water output has slightly decreased, and the demand support for raw materials is weak, with the contradictions in the alloy fundamentals continuing to accumulate [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production**: Manganese - silicon production has gradually contracted. This week's output was 188,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The weekly operating rate was 36.71%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from last week. Large manufacturers in Ningxia and Guizhou have started the shutdown process [18][22]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for manganese - silicon is weak. The downstream steel mills' production is at a relatively high level, but the actual iron - water output has decreased. The 247 steel enterprises' blast - furnace operating rate was 87.08% this week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and the blast - furnace daily average iron - water output was 232,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,800 tons. The rebar output also decreased this week [27]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises has continued to rise. As of December 5, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 375,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory has also increased, and the steel - mill inventory has seasonally increased [34]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese - ore departure volume has increased month - on - month. The departure changes need continuous tracking. The manganese - ore port prices have increased, which is closely related to the high demand for port clearance. The supply and demand of manganese ore may be relatively balanced [38][50]. 3.2 Silicon - Iron Fundamental Data - **Production**: Silicon - iron supply has expanded month - on - month. This week's output was 108,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 tons. The weekly operating rate was 33.81%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points. Large manufacturers in Ningxia have completed maintenance and resumed production as scheduled [57]. - **Demand**: Silicon - iron demand has weakened. The downstream steel - mill production is at a relatively high level, but the actual iron - water output has decreased. The non - steel demand shows that the metal - magnesium output has increased, while the stainless - steel crude - steel output has decreased. The silicon - iron export volume in October was 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% [75]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory of silicon - iron has increased, and there is still visible inventory pressure. As of December 5, the silicon - iron warehouse - receipt quantity was 13,588, a week - on - week increase of 2,681. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 72,640 tons, a week - on - week increase of 810 tons [77][83]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon - iron has been compressed due to the increase in electricity - cost. Attention should be paid to the potential loosening signs of raw - material prices [93].

（来源：银河投研黑色与有色） | () 据河湖总 | | --- | 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面, 供应端硅铁样本企业产量小幅反弹, 但11月电价陆续结算, 产区电价整体上涨, 加剧厂家亏损态势, 未来硅铁产量预计 童回下降趋势。需求方面,钢联数据显示,钢材表需开始季节性下降,使得钢材产量继续下降。从高炉检修计划推算,未来生铁产 量预计仍将震荡下行，原料需求仍有下行压力。成本端方面，近期产区铁合金电价稳中偏强，对硅铁有所支撑。总体来看，电价偏 强支撑短期反弹,但上方空间受需求压制。 锰硅方面,供应端猛硅延续了近期的收缩趋势,样本企业开工率与产量双双下降,本周预计产量仍将继续下降。需求方面,尽管近 期钢材利润有所修复，但螺纹钢表需环比走弱，产量也明显下行，对锰硅需求形成拖累。成本端方面，锰矿港口库存仍处于同期低 位,现货价格延续强势,成本端支撑明显。供需双弱背景下,成本端推动下短期反弹,但未来需求压力仍然存在,压制反弹高度。 【策略】 单边:成本推动短期反弹,但未来需求压力仍存,压制反弹高度,本周预计底部震荡; 套利:观望; 期权:逢高卖出虚值跨式组合。 | 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 ...