Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving international competitiveness of major Chinese port cities and the challenges faced by shipping companies amid fluctuating market cycles and the push for green, low-carbon development [1][5][19]. Group 1: Shipping Industry Competitiveness - The "2025 Baltic International Shipping Center Development Index Report" indicates that Shanghai has maintained its position as the third-largest international shipping center for six consecutive years [1][5]. - The report highlights that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, major Chinese ports have made significant progress in key indicators, showcasing a more integrated, intelligent, and green future for the shipping industry [1][5]. - The global shipping center rankings for 2025 show Singapore, London, and Shanghai as the top three, with Hong Kong and Dubai following closely [2][4]. Group 2: Shanghai's Development - Shanghai's port is projected to become the first in the world to exceed 50 million TEUs in container throughput by 2024, reinforcing its status as a leading global shipping hub [8]. - The gap in scores between Shanghai and its competitors, Singapore and London, has narrowed, with Shanghai's score difference from London decreasing from 0.38 in 2021 to just 0.01 by 2025 [8][10]. - The report emphasizes that Shanghai's development is supported by a robust shipping industry ecosystem, top-notch port infrastructure, and strong maritime legal and financial services [10]. Group 3: High-End Shipping Services - The report identifies a significant gap between hard and soft power in Chinese ports, with only Shanghai and Hong Kong showing consistent rankings in shipping services that align with their overall rankings [11][14]. - The high-end shipping service sector remains a critical area for improvement, as leading cities like Singapore and London maintain a substantial advantage in this domain [11][14]. - The report notes that enhancing high-end shipping services requires collaboration across various sectors, including ports, shipping, finance, and legal services [11]. Group 4: Green Shipping Initiatives - The shipping industry is a major contributor to carbon emissions, with approximately 1 billion tons of CO2 emitted annually, accounting for about 3% of global emissions [19]. - The report highlights the industry's shift towards green and low-carbon development, with significant changes driven by the EU's emissions trading system and a focus on carbon efficiency [19][20]. - Major shipping centers are actively pursuing the establishment of green fuel bunkering facilities, with Shanghai aiming to become a hub for clean fuel supply [20]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - The maritime AI market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size reaching $4.1 billion by 2024, indicating a rapid adoption of AI technologies across the shipping sector [20][21]. - Shanghai is working on transforming its port operations through AI and big data, aiming to set a new benchmark for smart terminals [20]. - Successful AI implementation in the shipping industry relies on a collaborative ecosystem involving small and large enterprises, classification societies, and regulatory bodies [21].

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 1,990.2 | 2,030.0 | 2,022.5 | 2,045.2 | 32.3 | 1.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the container shipping market, especially the Far - East to Europe route. It indicates that the freight rate is oscillating at a high level. The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season. The 12 - month contract's price is usually higher than that of the 10 - month contract, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation. The strategy suggests that the main contract will oscillate, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price As of July 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 76,829.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 51,307.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1365.70, EC2604 is 1204.00, EC2506 is 1342.10, EC2508 is 2022.50, EC2510 is 1401.10, and EC2512 is 1556.40 [7]. 3.2 Spot Price On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2101.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2089.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 4124.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1557.77 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. 3.4 Supply Chain Geopolitical factors affect the shipping supply chain. The Israel - Hamas conflict situation is complex, and the Houthi armed forces' attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue. The passage of ships through important canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is also a focus [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy The report does not provide specific analysis content on demand and the European economy, only lists relevant data charts such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, and EU 27 imports from China [73]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract oscillates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [8].

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value of 1862 [2] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1343, down 1.92% from the previous value of 1369 [2] - SCFI - US West has a current value of 2089, down 18.97% from the previous value of 2578 [2] - SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1557, down 3.83% from the previous value of 1619 [2] - SCFI - US East has a current value of 4124, down 12.57% from the previous value of 4717 [2] - SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2101, up 3.50% from the previous value of 2030 [2] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 2258, up 6.36% from the previous value of 2123 [2] - SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2869, down 3.89% from the previous value of 2985 [2] Group 2: Shipping Contracts Data - For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding price changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1342.1, up 0.72% from the previous value of 1332.5 [2] - Regarding contract positions, such as EC2606 position, EC2508 position etc, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes in quantity are provided. For instance, EC2606 position has a current value of 471, up from the previous value of 430 [2] - For month - spreads like 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4, their current values, previous values, and corresponding changes are given. For example, the 10 - 12 month - spread has a current value of 621.4, down 1.1 from the previous value of 622.5 [2] Group 3: Industry News - A vessel was attacked off the Red Sea coast of Yemen on Sunday, with characteristics typical of Houthi militants. The vessel was hit by a maritime drone and also attacked by small boats [2] - Some EU car manufacturers and governments are seeking a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. If no deal is reached by July 9, EU exports to the US may face a 50% tariff increase [6] - Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks in Qatar ended without results [7] - CMA added an overtime ship on the 11th and still has available space [7] - MSK added a new overtime ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in wk31 [8] - There is congestion at East China ports, and MSC adjusted its port calls [9] - Loading rates on European routes were good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10] - The OA Alliance's CES route suspended two sailings, leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [11] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The shipping market showed a strong - side oscillation. The recent strength was due to tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. Forwarding of goods from the Far East to the US will continue for some time, which is positive for August [12] - The central price in the second week of July was about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quotes increased slightly, and the 08 contract performed strongly [12] - The market is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations. The shipping volume during the previous peak season was mostly consumed during the tariff suspension period, and the effect of price increases in August may not be optimistic [12] - The strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread and consider the 8 - 10 calendar spread. The 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract due to less shipping capacity in wk28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in wk1 of July, and expected congestion in Europe [12]

中国航海学会理事长何建中表示，航海科普应承担起培育未来航运新质生产力的使命，既要扎根历史， 通过讲好中国航海故事筑牢文化自信，也要拥抱科技，揭秘前沿技术以赋能人才培育，同时聚焦绿色发展， 让下一代理解航海在守护地球中的责任。 海南日报博鳌7月10日电(海南日报全媒体记者 陈婧)7月10日，2025年全国航海科普季启动仪式暨"匠说 航海"科普讲座在中国(海南)南海博物馆举行，今年的主题为"扬帆向未来，筑梦探新篇"，将为普及航海知 识、弘扬航海文化、传承新时代航海精神贡献力量。 启动仪式上，2025年新增选的8位航海科普大使代表获颁聘书，中国航海学会为18个全国航海科普教育基 地授牌。目前，由中国航海学会命名的全国航海科普基地达到120个，评聘航海科普大使35位。 2025年航海科普夏令营同步开营。"今年的夏令营从海南博鳌出发，希望能够通过夏令营向青少年传播航 海知识，点燃孩子们对海洋的探索热情。"夏令营带队老师田雨禾表示。 在"匠说航海"科普讲座中，上海海事大学教授、船长白响恩分享自身航海经历，鼓励青少年保持好奇 心、恒心、爱心，做自己人生航线的船长;上海海事局东海海巡执法总队"海巡01"轮船长詹春珮介绍了海事 ...

Core Insights - The "China Yangpu Port" has the highest number of registered international vessels and capacity in China's free trade ports, with a total deadweight tonnage exceeding 600,000 tons and 63 registered vessels [2][3]. Group 1: Shipping Industry Developments - The shipping company Danhai Shipping (Hainan) Co., Ltd. has invested several million yuan in new vessels, contributing to the growth of Hainan's maritime industry [2]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's "zero tariff" policy on transportation tools allows companies to save over 7 million yuan in operating costs by registering vessels under "China Yangpu Port" [2]. - As of now, the total deadweight tonnage of international vessels registered under "China Yangpu Port" has reached 635,000 tons, making Hainan's international shipping fleet the second largest in China [3]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Connectivity - Hainan is developing a comprehensive transportation network to enhance its role as an international shipping hub, with a focus on connecting to the Pacific and Indian Oceans [2][3]. - By the end of 2024, Hainan aims to establish a "four corners and five ports" structure, with Yangpu Port as the international hub and Haikou Port as a major national port [3]. - The province has built 155 productive berths, including 86 ten-thousand-ton berths, with an annual throughput capacity of 280 million tons [3]. Group 3: Trade and Economic Impact - Yangpu Port has signed cooperation agreements with five major international ports, including Abu Dhabi and Singapore, aiming to expand its trade routes [4]. - By 2024, Yangpu Port is expected to have 50 trade routes, with a cargo throughput of 64 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [4]. - The port's container throughput is projected to reach 2.01 million TEUs, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, marking its entry into the top 20 ports in China [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gaza ceasefire may see a turnaround, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today, which meets the daily report's expectations [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Indexes Shipping Indexes - On July 4 - 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2258.04 points, up 6.3%; the NCFI (European route) was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1557.77 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1] - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.99 points, down 1.9%; the SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the CCFI (European route) was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the SCFI US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97%; the CCFI (US West route) was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1] PMI Indexes - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2] - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 points higher than May, and the same as April, back above the critical point [2] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2] Group 4: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (has made a profit of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today. It is recommended to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Arbitrage Strategy - With the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3] Group 5: Market Conditions of Contracts - On July 10, the main contract 2508 closed at 2022.5, up 1.62%, with a trading volume of 3.46 million lots and an open interest of 3.09 million lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]

Core Points - The 2025 China Maritime Day main event will be held in Qionghai from July 10 to 12, featuring over 20 activities focused on "Green and Innovation" [1] - This year marks the 20th anniversary of China Maritime Day and the 620th anniversary of Zheng He's voyages [1] Group 1: Event Highlights - The event will include forums, seminars, and cultural activities, showcasing professionalism, cutting-edge topics, and local characteristics of Hainan [1] - Five major features will be highlighted, including professional perspectives and frontier exploration, with five sub-forums and five parallel forum activities addressing industry hotspots and emerging topics [1][2] - The main forum will release the 2024 China Shipping Development Report and various industry awards and recognitions [1] Group 2: Industry Development Support - A think tank seminar will be held to discuss high-quality development in inland shipping and technological innovations in maritime navigation [2] - The "Port Craftsman Innovation Exchange Camp" will continue, facilitating discussions among industry workers and leaders on technology trends and governance [2] Group 3: Hainan Characteristics - The event will promote the achievements and development policies of Hainan Free Trade Port, coinciding with its operational year [4] - Special sessions will be dedicated to showcasing Hainan's development efforts [4] Group 4: Public Engagement and Education - The event will offer a comprehensive maritime science education experience, including the launch of the National Maritime Science Popularization Season and summer camps [4] - 120 national maritime science education bases will be open to the public, supported by over 200 volunteers providing lectures and explanations [4] - New activities such as the "COSCO Shipping Cup" sailor competition and the "New Red Special" tribute to the Maritime Silk Road culture will enrich the educational offerings [4]

2025 年 7 月 11 日 集运指数（欧线）：10 空单轻仓持有 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2,022.5 | 1.62% | 34,566 | 30,945 | -403 | 1.12 | 0.81 | | | | EC2510 | 1,401.1 | 1.35% | 13,584 | 29,957 | 315 | 0.45 | 0.35 | | | | EC2512 | 1,556.4 | 0.34% | 1,644 | 6,032 | -66 | 0.27 | 0.34 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/7 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2,258.04 | | | 点 | | 6.3% | | | 运价 | SCFIS： 美西航线 | | 1,557 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - **ZTO Express**: Focus on performance in Southeast Asia and China market - **Pacific Basin Shipping**: Rating downgrade and market outlook - **Cathay Pacific Airways**: Performance expectations for 2025 - **Siyuan Electric**: Performance in the power equipment sector - **Solar Industry**: Implementation of anti-involution policies and market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments - **ZTO Express**: - Expected to raise full-year guidance for Southeast Asia, but Q2 growth in China slowed to 15%, potentially leading to a downward adjustment of full-year guidance [1][3] - Adjusted net profit forecast for the year is 8.8 billion yuan, with a 19% year-on-year decline [5] - **Pacific Basin Shipping**: - Rating downgraded due to strong stock performance and reasonable valuation [6] - Risks include potential trade agreements between the US and China and global trade deterioration [6] - **Cathay Pacific Airways**: - Anticipated strong performance in H1 2025 with passenger traffic growth exceeding expectations [9] - Oil prices are down year-on-year, benefiting profit margins, but cargo demand remains uncertain [9] - **Siyuan Electric**: - Strong performance in overseas markets and breakthroughs in high-end domestic markets [14] - Expected profit growth of 25% this year, with potential for over 20% growth in the next two years [14] - **Solar Industry**: - Anti-involution policies are being discussed, but specific measures are yet to be implemented [12] - Anticipated decline in demand in the second half of the year, with a forecast of 280 to 300 GW for the year [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Banking Sector**: - Credit card consumption is declining due to rising personal credit delinquency rates, while overall consumer spending is rebounding [10][11] - Bank fee income is expected to recover gradually as consumer spending stabilizes [11] - **Shipping Industry**: - The container shipping sector faces uncertainties due to global trade conditions and capital expenditure slowdowns [7][8] - Ratings for major shipping companies remain cautious, with potential adjustments based on mid-year performance [8] - **General Economic Trends**: - Overall consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, with online payment growth outpacing offline [10] - Household financial assets continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to last year [11]