Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market experienced a mixed performance on September 25, with most main contracts closing lower, while some commodities saw slight gains [1] Group 2 - In terms of price movements, vegetable oil and vegetable meal increased by nearly 1%, while low-sulfur fuel oil also rose close to 1% [1] - On the downside, butadiene rubber and No. 20 rubber fell by over 2%, while rubber, coking coal, and coking coke dropped by more than 1%. Methanol decreased by nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on September 24, with raw sugar futures declining by 0.19% to 16.12 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures fell by 0.75% to 66.14 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures increased by 0.66% to $7038.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures surged by 5.31% to 368.75 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 23, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of $3,815.7 and an intraday high of $3,824.6 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks did not provide a clear path for interest rate cuts, but the market interpreted them as supportive of further easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wood, global equity strategist at Jefferies, believes that despite strong gold performance year-to-date, there is still more upside potential in the coming months [2] - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, will likely intensify expectations for further rate cuts, which is a positive factor for gold prices [2] Group 3 - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [3] - Although December silver futures closed slightly down by $0.05 at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during intraday trading [3] - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also saw significant increases of over 4% on the same day [3]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on September 22, with raw sugar futures down 1.80% at 15.85 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.06% to 66.25 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell significantly by 3.74% to $6,972.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced a slight increase of 0.48% to 368.25 cents per pound [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Financial Secretary welcomed the approval of three warehouses in Yuen Long by the London Metal Exchange (LME) as recognized warehouses, supporting the government's push for commodity trading policies outlined in the Chief Executive's 2025 Policy Address [1] - The total number of recognized warehouses in Hong Kong has increased to 11, enhancing the city's position as a key delivery hub for the LME in Asia [1] - The government plans to implement additional measures to develop commodity trading, including the establishment of a Commodity Strategy Committee and tax incentives for commodity traders [1] Group 1 - The approval of the three warehouses marks strong industry support for the government's commodity trading policy direction [1] - The inclusion of Hong Kong in the LME's global warehouse network has occurred within nine months, with a total of 11 recognized warehouses now operational [1] - The new warehouses will provide efficient delivery options for international metal trading and promote the development of maritime and other services in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The government aims to enhance the overall layout for long-term development by coordinating soft and hardware measures [1] - The LME began accepting applications for warehouse operators to store LME-registered metals in January of this year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper remain tight. Domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting the upward movement of copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips in moderation [9]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are gradually tightening, and its price is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. - The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term. Recently, the oil price is oscillating, and it is advised to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt will both increase, and its price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [17]. - The upside space of PVC is expected to be limited in the near term [19]. - Coking coal still maintains a relatively strong trend [20]. - Urea is still building a bottom in oscillation, with a chance of rebound later, but the loose pattern has not reversed [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 19, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Container shipping to Europe dropped 6%, PX and PTA fell over 2%, and SC crude oil, bottle chips, and staple fiber dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, industrial silicon rose over 3%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and caustic soda, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and rapeseed oil rose over 1% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 (IF) rose 0.55%, the main contract of SSE 50 (IH) rose 0.34%, the main contract of CSI 500 (IC) rose 0.34%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 (IM) fell 0.21% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.13%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.21%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.77% [7]. - As of 15:17 on September 19, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2512 inflowed 2.922 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2512 inflowed 1.823 billion yuan, and iron ore 2601 inflowed 816 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai copper 2510 outflowed 867 million yuan, SSE 50 2512 outflowed 537 million yuan, and polysilicon 2511 outflowed 284 million yuan [7]. Specific Futures Analysis Shanghai Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened low and moved high. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [9]. - As of September 12, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the RC fee was -4.16 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable [9]. - Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October. Currently, the profitability of small and medium-sized smelters is under pressure, and the supply of refined copper remains tight [9]. - In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly [9]. - Currently, it is approaching the peak season. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak season expectations still needs to be observed [9]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased slightly, with an increase of 6,633 tons compared with last week. The import volume has increased, and the high price has suppressed copper demand, gradually starting the inventory accumulation trend [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high today. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in an oscillating manner [10]. - On the supply side, affected by the mine license, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite raw materials has dropped to 15%. Spodumene has gradually become the most important raw material for lithium carbonate. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is at a relatively high level year-on-year [11]. - On the demand side, the total domestic demand for lithium carbonate in August reached 102,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.49%. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the customer collection in the first half of September increased by 1.2% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 8.8% compared with the second half of August. The orders in the first half of September increased by 2.0% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 16.6% compared with the second half of August. Before the double festivals, the downstream restocking sentiment has improved [11]. Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased significantly more than expected, but refined oil inventories have increased more than expected, alleviating the previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the operating rate of US refineries has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [12]. - On September 7, eight OPEC+ countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, which will be implemented starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner [12]. - This will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil again. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel [12]. - Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [12]. - The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end. The weak US non-farm payrolls data has made the market worried about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term [12]. - Recently, the previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil [12]. - Trump said that Putin was disappointing and urged countries to stop buying oil from Russia, but at the same time said that the oil price needed to be further lowered to force Russia to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12]. - In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of supply increase [12]. - Israel launched an attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week decreased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 34.4%, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The asphalt operating rate has decreased slightly and is still at a relatively low level in recent years [14]. - According to Longzhong Information data, the expected asphalt production in China in September is 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons, an increase of 11.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, an increase of 34.1% [14]. - This week, the operating rates of various downstream industries of asphalt have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt has increased by 1.69 percentage points month-on-month to 30.31%, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [14]. - This week, North China has mainly executed previous contracts, and the shipment volume has increased significantly. The national shipment volume has increased by 31.10% month-on-month to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level [14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries has decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [14]. - The US has allowed Chevron to resume oil production in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount of asphalt raw materials purchased by China [14]. - Next week, the devices of Dongming Petrochemical, Shandong Jincheng, etc. will operate stably, and Henan Fengli has a plan to resume production. The asphalt production will increase. The weather in the north is okay, and many projects are rushing to work. However, the rainfall in some southern areas has increased, and the funds are restricted. The market is cautious, which affects the demand for asphalt [14]. - Recently, the crude oil futures price has oscillated narrowly, and the cost support for asphalt is limited [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased by 0.59 percentage points month-on-month to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving has increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 43.6%, and the plastic weaving orders have continued to increase slightly, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [15]. - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as the second line of Yangzi Petrochemical restarted. The operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to about 81%, at a neutral and relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawn yarn has dropped to about 28.5% [15]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [15]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [15]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 450,000 tons per year of the second line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production at the end of August, and another production line of 450,000 tons per year of the first line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production in early September. Recently, the number of overhaul devices has decreased slightly [15]. - The weather has improved, and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rate of plastic weaving continues to increase. Most downstream industries of PP are expected to continue to rise. The pre-holiday restocking of the downstream may bring some boost, but the current peak season demand is lower than expected, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement [15]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the PP industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [16]. Plastic - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as Jinghai Chemical's HDPE restarted. The operating rate of plastic has increased to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level [17]. - The downstream operating rate of PE has increased by 0.75 percentage points month-on-month to 42.92%. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season. The orders for agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. The orders for packaging film have also increased, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [17]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [17]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into production at the end of July, and the operating rate of plastic has increased [17]. - The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, the prices of agricultural film in various regions are stable, and the subsequent demand will further increase. The agricultural film enterprises are continuously restocking before the double festivals, the orders are gradually accumulating, and the operating situation has improved slightly, which may bring some boost, but the current peak season is not as good as expected [17]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the plastic industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [17]. PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region has continued to increase by 25 yuan per ton [18]. - Currently, on the supply side, the operating rate of PVC has decreased by 2.98 percentage points month-on-month to 76.96%. The operating rate of PVC has decreased and dropped to a neutral and relatively high level in the same period over the years [18]. - During the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate of PVC has continued to increase and has begun to exceed the same period last year, but it is still lower than other years [18]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has raised its quotation in September by $10 - 25 per ton. On August 14, India announced the latest anti-dumping duty on imported PVC, of which the duty on the Chinese mainland has been raised by about $50 per ton. The export expectation of Chinese PVC in the second half of the year has weakened [18]. - However, after the recent decrease in export prices, the export orders have strengthened month-on-month [18]. - This week, the social inventory has continued to increase and is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large [18]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year-on-year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion have further decreased [19]. - The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased month-on-month and is still near the lowest level in the same period over the years. The improvement of the real estate market still needs time [19]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC has increased this week and is still relatively high [19]. - In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons per year production capacity has been put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons per year production capacity is expected to be stably produced at the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons per year production capacity was put into production in early September, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons per year production capacity is in the trial production stage in September [19]. - The anti-involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is still no actual policy in the PVC industry. Most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [19]. - The cost support for PVC has strengthened, and the downstream has restocked before the festival. However, the devices of Heilongjiang Haohua, Gansu Jinchuan, etc. will resume production next week. The basis of PVC is relatively low, and the upside space of

Core Insights - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of options for Solana (SOL) and XRP futures on October 31, pending regulatory review [1] Group 1: Product Launch - CME will offer options for trading SOL, Micro SOL, XRP, and Micro XRP futures with expiration dates available for every business day, monthly, and quarterly [1] Group 2: Trading Volume - Since March 17, over 540,000 Solana futures contracts have been traded [1] - Since May 19, over 370,000 XRP futures contracts have been traded [1]

Core Points - The most active gold futures for December 2025 fell by $30.5 to $3694.6 per ounce, a decline of 0.82% [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The Fed's statement indicated that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will be carefully evaluated based on subsequent data and changing economic outlooks [1] - The Fed projected a median U.S. GDP growth rate of 1.6% for this year, with 1.8% and 1.9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, which is an increase from previous forecasts [1] - The median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 4.3% in 2027, slightly lower than prior predictions [1] Economic Outlook - The median forecast for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 3.6% by the end of this year, 3.4% by the end of 2026, and 3.1% by the end of 2027 [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that lowering rates would assist the struggling labor market, where some individuals are currently having difficulty finding jobs [2] Inflation Concerns - Powell acknowledged that the focus of the meeting was entirely on the labor market, stating that there is "no risk-free path" [3] - Concerns were raised about tariffs implemented during the Trump administration potentially continuing to drive up commodity prices through the remainder of this year and into 2026, although the overall impact on economic activity and inflation remains to be seen [3] Silver Market - The December silver futures price dropped by $0.922 to $41.995 per ounce, a decline of 2.15% [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government will establish a "Commodity Strategy Committee" led by the Financial Secretary to enhance the top-level design and long-term strategy formulation for commodity policies [1] - The government aims to develop a commodity trading ecosystem in Hong Kong, including supporting the establishment of more recognized warehouses and providing tax incentives for commodity traders [1] - The initiative is expected to strengthen Hong Kong's position as an international financial, shipping, and trading center, integrating existing advantages and creating new economic growth points [1] Group 2 - Guangdong Province and Guangzhou have expressed support for cross-border cooperation between the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The collaboration is seen as a practical measure to enhance the influence of Hong Kong's capital market and promote the integration of financial resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] - Strengthening cooperation between the two exchanges is crucial for the development of the Greater Bay Area and will facilitate efficient allocation of production factors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dalian Commodity Exchange is seeking public opinions on the coal futures options contract, with a deadline set for September 24, 2023, to enhance risk management tools for the steel industry [1] Group 1: Market Context - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coking coal, supporting an annual crude steel output exceeding 1 billion tons [1] - Recent fluctuations in coking coal prices have heightened the demand for refined risk management tools among industry players [1] Group 2: Contract Details - The proposed coking coal options will align with existing options contracts in terms of trading units, pricing units, price limits, contract months, and trading hours [2] - The options will feature an American exercise style, with strike prices covering a range corresponding to 1.5 times the price limit of the underlying futures contract [2] - Specific design elements include a tiered strike price interval and a minimum tick size set at 0.1 yuan/ton, which is one-fifth of the minimum tick size for the underlying futures [2] Group 3: Market Impact - The introduction of coking coal options will enhance the product offerings in China's commodity options market, complementing existing futures and options for coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3] - This development aims to create a more comprehensive risk management solution for enterprises within the steel industry [3]