一方面，美伊局势持续紧张，风险溢价攀升。1月23日，美国财政部宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措 施，涉及多家与石油和天然气相关的公司和多艘油轮。此外，美国多次威胁军事干涉伊朗局势。目前， 伊朗原油产量超过300万桶/日，出口量约200万桶/日，约占全球供应的3%。市场担忧若美伊冲突爆发， 伊朗原油出口可能受阻。此外，若局势恶化，霍尔木兹海峡或面临封锁危机。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，当前原油市场聚焦美伊局势，短期油价波动或加剧。建 议后续密切关注地缘局势、OPEC+产量政策、全球贸易争端等指引。2025年我国原油表观需求改善、 天然气表观需求微增、成品油表观需求回落。该行预计2026年2月Brent原油价格运行区间参考60-70美 元/桶，受地缘不确定性因素影响，短期油价波动将加剧。推荐PX、PTA、石化新材料等领域投资机 会。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 1月油价重心上移 截至1月30日，Brent、WTI月均价分别为64.7、60.2美元/桶，环比分别上涨5.0%、4.1%。供给端，地缘 因素叠加北美寒潮，供给缩量预期升温。 2025年我国天然气表观消费量4322亿立方米，同比增长2.4%， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant progress made by the Chinese judicial system in combating corruption, with a notable increase in the number of cases accepted and prosecuted in 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Corruption Prosecution Statistics - In the first eleven months of 2025, over 27,000 individuals were accepted for prosecution for corruption-related offenses, with approximately 26,000 already prosecuted, marking increases of about 11% and 20% year-on-year respectively [2]. - The Supreme People's Procuratorate received 48 cases involving senior officials from the National Supervisory Commission, a 6% increase year-on-year, and guided local prosecutors to file charges against 54 individuals, up 28% [3]. - Over 1,300 judicial staff were investigated for crimes such as abuse of power and coercion, with over 1,000 cases leading to prosecution [4]. Group 2: Focus on Key Sectors - The prosecution of corruption in key sectors saw over 7,800 cases in finance, state-owned enterprises, energy, and construction, alongside 4,100 cases in healthcare and education, and 1,200 cases in local organizations [4]. - The Supreme Procuratorate emphasized collaboration in addressing corruption in areas affecting public welfare, such as housing, elderly care, and healthcare funds [4]. Group 3: Anti-Bribery Measures - The judicial system is committed to investigating both bribery and corruption together, with a 7.6% increase in the prosecution of bribery cases, totaling 2,982 individuals in 2025 [6]. - Efforts to recover illicit gains from bribery are being enhanced, with a focus on establishing mechanisms for asset recovery and correcting non-monetary benefits [6]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Asset Recovery - The "Sky Net" operation, aimed at pursuing fugitives and recovering assets, has seen significant results, with 12 individuals repatriated and 23 arrest warrants issued for those suspected of corruption abroad [7]. - The judicial system is actively involved in refining regulations for cross-border corruption and enhancing cooperation with law enforcement agencies [7]. Group 5: Addressing New Forms of Corruption - The emergence of new and hidden forms of corruption is a current challenge, prompting the judicial system to adapt its strategies and legal frameworks to effectively combat these issues [11]. - The development of guidelines for investigating new types of corruption is underway, focusing on evidence collection and legal definitions [11].

Group 1 - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open on February 3, 2026, at 24:00, with an expected second price increase of the year [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the "Big Three" oil companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and strengthen natural gas market development, accelerating the transformation of midstream and downstream refining businesses, which may lead to long-term growth through oil price cycles [1] - The domestic high upstream capital expenditure will support the growth of upstream production and reserves, benefiting oil service companies, with major oil service companies showing improved operational quality despite falling oil prices [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, Sinopec, and others, accounting for a total of 66.76% [2] - The oil ETF Penghua (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Core Points - The US-India trade agreement is described as "historic," with India committing to purchase over $500 billion of US products in the next five years, while the US will reduce tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 18% [1][3] - The agreement is seen as a strategic exchange between the two nations amid a backdrop of global geopolitical shifts and financial market restructuring [1][3] Agreement Core Content - The trade agreement is structured around three dimensions: trade concessions, financial openness, and geopolitical binding, addressing both countries' core demands [3] - India will significantly increase imports from the US, particularly in energy, defense equipment, and agricultural products, while the US will eliminate certain tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum [3][4] - The agreement does not address India's concerns regarding US agricultural tariffs or IT service market access, indicating areas of compromise [3] Financial Cooperation - The agreement allows US financial institutions to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in India, breaking previous foreign ownership limits in banking, insurance, and asset management [4][5] - A regular financial regulatory dialogue will be established to discuss cross-border capital flows and financial risk management [4] Geopolitical Commitments - India will gradually stop purchasing Russian oil, shifting to increased imports from the US and Middle Eastern countries, which could create a significant energy import gap [5] - In exchange, the US will support India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and enhance military technology transfers to India [5] Impact on Global Financial Markets - The trade agreement has triggered immediate reactions in global financial markets, affecting currencies, commodities, and stock markets [6] - The US dollar initially strengthened, while the Indian rupee faced depreciation due to increased demand for dollars and reduced access to cheaper Russian oil [7] - Energy markets are expected to experience volatility, with India's shift in energy sourcing impacting global oil and gas prices [8] Stock Market Reactions - Indian stock markets faced selling pressure, with the SENSEX index dropping 2.1%, while US markets showed slight gains, particularly in energy and defense sectors [9] Strategic Considerations - The agreement reflects the strategic needs of both countries, with the US aiming to weaken Russia and counter China's influence, while India seeks to enhance its military capabilities and attract US investment [10][11] - The US aims to create a geopolitical and financial alliance centered around itself, while India seeks to leverage US support for its rise as a major power [12][13] Future Outlook - The agreement's execution is uncertain, with potential challenges in meeting the $500 billion procurement commitment and geopolitical tensions affecting energy supply [15][16] - Financial market volatility is anticipated, with fluctuations in currency and commodity prices depending on the agreement's implementation and geopolitical developments [18]

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman triggered the "Warsh trade", leading to a rapid cooling of global risk appetite and a significant adjustment in commodities. The short - term market volatility contrasts with the long - term super - cycle main line, but the long - term support for the technology and non - ferrous metals main line remains solid [2] - The US ISM manufacturing index in January reached 52.6, the highest since February 2022, which made the US dollar index strengthen. The RMB exchange rate remained relatively resilient but the downward space of the US dollar against the RMB was narrowed [3] - The stock index continued to adjust, but the policy support limited the downward space. The bond market lacked upward momentum and was likely to continue to fluctuate [4][5][6] Group 2: Commodities Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel oil was in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was gradually recovering, while the demand was weak, and the Iranian issue provided some support at the bottom [26] - Low - sulfur fuel oil had a low cracking spread. The supply was relatively abundant, the demand was stable, and the inventory decline provided a slight boost [27] - The asphalt price quickly fell back. The short - term price was expected to oscillate with limited upward and downward space [28][29] New Energy - For lithium carbonate, in the long - term, the demand from energy storage, new - energy vehicles still supported the price. Before the Spring Festival, it was recommended to reduce positions and pay attention to selling volatility strategies [10][11] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short - term, the demand was expected to increase due to the export - tax - rebate policy, and the price was likely to rise. Before the Spring Festival, it was recommended to reduce positions [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated around important support levels after the release of market sentiment. It was recommended to conduct short - term range operations before the Spring Festival [13][16] - Aluminum prices got short - term support. In the long - term, the price was expected to rise, while alumina was expected to be weak in the long - term and casting aluminum alloy was recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [17] - Zinc prices were oversold during the day and adjusted at night. It was expected to maintain a wide - range shock [18] - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fell during the day and the decline slowed at night. It was necessary to pay attention to the macro - level situation and the news from Indonesia [18][19] - Tin prices showed a short - selling signal during the day and remained weak at night. It was recommended to enter the market with a light position [20][21] - Lead prices followed the sector. The cost of recycled lead provided support, and it was expected to oscillate in a range [21] Grains and Oils - Oilseeds oscillated and declined. The supply of imported soybeans in the first quarter might have a gap, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices were expected to oscillate [23] - Oils faced pressure. The short - term price was facing a test at the pressure level, waiting for new market drivers [24] Group 3: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices continued to decline. The pulp market had many negative factors, and the supply - side reduction provided some support. It was recommended to wait and hold previous short positions [36][38] - LPG risk premium significantly retreated. The supply was neutral - low, the demand was weak, and it was necessary to pay attention to the situation of relevant talks [38][39] - PX - PTA's high processing fees were expected to be difficult to maintain. PX was in a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of the year, and it was recommended to go long at low prices and shrink the processing fees on the disk [39][41] - MEG - bottle chips had difficulty finding upward drivers. It was necessary to pay attention to geopolitical risks, and the price was expected to oscillate widely with the macro - atmosphere [41][43] - Methanol prices fell. The trading logic was driven by the change of macro - sentiment, and it was recommended to wait for unilateral trading and do 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expand MTO profits [44][45] - PP and PE prices were affected by the macro - sentiment. PP's supply and demand decreased, and PE's supply increased while demand decreased. It was necessary to pay attention to the cost and macro - trends [45][46][48] - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell due to the retreat of geopolitical premium. Pure benzene's supply increased while demand decreased, and styrene's supply - demand pattern turned weak. It was recommended to wait and look for opportunities to go long on styrene after a callback [48][49] - Glass and soda ash prices were hovering at a low level. Soda ash had an oversupply expectation, and glass was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [49][50][52] - Propylene prices were affected by cost and supply - demand. The cost decreased, but the short - term supply - demand provided some support, and it was necessary to pay attention to the change of fundamentals [52][53] Group 4: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices had no driving force and oscillated in the bottom range. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the price was supported by cost and policy [53][54] - Iron ore was a hedging variety. The supply was loose, the demand was expected to increase, and the price had limited downward space [54][55] - Coking coal and coke prices had relatively low valuations, but short - term driving forces had not appeared. The supply - demand structure was expected to improve during the Spring Festival, and the price might face downward pressure in the future [55][56][57] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices were supported at the bottom and pressured at the top. The supply was expected to be stable, the demand increment was limited, and the price was expected to oscillate in a range [57][58] Group 5: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices stopped falling and stabilized, and it was recommended to sell call options [59][60] - Cotton prices were likely to rise due to the tight - balance expectation but were restricted by the internal - external price difference. It was recommended to go long on dips but not to chase the rise [61][62] - Sugar prices were dragged down by the decline of international raw sugar. The upward space was limited, and there was great pressure at the 60 - day moving average [62][63] - Egg prices opened low and went low. The spot price was expected to oscillate at a high level [64][65] - Apple prices saw the acceleration of pre - holiday stocking, and the spot price was loose. It was necessary to pay attention to whether the logic of the shortage of delivery products could return to the disk [65][66] - Red date prices were expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term. It was necessary to pay attention to the pre - holiday purchasing situation [66][67] - Log prices in Lanshan increased, and the four - port inventory slightly increased. The price was relatively balanced, with limited upward space and strong support below. It was recommended to continue holding the short - put strategy [68][69]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/3 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期市日盘收盘大面积跌停，沪银、钯、铂、沪铜、沪镍、原油、碳 酸锂等十多个品种主力合约跌停，沪金逼近跌停。夜盘收盘，沪银主力合约下跌 20%，沪锡跌 12.38%，原油跌 4.8%，沪金跌 3.86%。 2.美油主力合约收跌 4.42%，报 62. ...

Core Viewpoint - BP needs to demonstrate how its increased investment in oil and gas will create value for shareholders, as a group of investors has submitted a special resolution demanding clarity on capital expenditure discipline and project return assessments [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - A fund alliance managing £191 billion (approximately $260 billion) has called for BP to explain its approach to capital discipline and the evaluation of new oil and gas projects [1] - BP plans to increase its oil and gas investments to approximately $10 billion annually while cutting low-carbon energy investments by $5 billion [1] Group 2: Leadership Changes - Meg O'Neill will become BP's first external CEO and the first female leader among the five major oil companies, taking over from Murray Auchincloss in April [2] - O'Neill has a strong background in the industry, having led Woodside since 2021 and previously worked at ExxonMobil for 23 years, focusing on core gas assets and LNG projects [2] Group 3: Strategic Shift - O'Neill's appointment signifies a strategic pivot back to oil and gas after BP's exploration in renewable energy, with expectations of improved profitability and a focus on core operations [3] - Analysts suggest that under O'Neill's leadership, BP will adopt a more fundamental strategy centered on oil, gas, and LNG development [3]

Group 1 - Trump announced that Mexico will stop supplying oil to Cuba as part of increased pressure on the country, although he did not provide specific details on this decision [1] - As of January, WTI crude oil prices increased by 14% month-on-month but decreased by 11% year-on-year. OPEC+ is adjusting its production strategy between market share and price stability, with an increase in production expected starting in 2025, but facing challenges from weak demand and oversupply [1] - By early 2026, geopolitical risks affecting oil prices are expected to rise, leading to potential supply constraints [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) had its top ten weighted stocks, including China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, which collectively account for 66.76% of the index [2] - The Petroleum ETF Penghua closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2]

WTI 3月原油 期货收跌3.07美元，跌幅将近4.71%，报62.14美元/桶。布伦特4月原油期货收报66.30美元/ 桶。NYMEX 3月 天然气期货收跌超25.65%，报3.2370美元/百万英热单位。NYMEX 3月汽油期货收报 1.8514美元/加仑，NYMEX 3月取暖油期货收报2.3598美元/加仑。 ...

证券之星消息，近日中国石油（601857）新注册了9个项目的软件著作权，包括《地面工程野外道路快 速识别终端软件V1.0》、《云台型制冷光谱相机智能监测系统软件V1.0》、《生产数据实时派生管理及 质量控制系统V1.0》、《加氢精制反应装置模拟软件V1.0》、《柱塞排水采气工艺优化软件V1.0》、 《用于天然气净化的生产系统V1.0》、《监督信息管理平台V1.0》、《延迟焦化反应装置模拟软件 V1.0》、《烷基化反应装置模拟软件V1.0》等。今年以来中国石油新注册软件著作权110个，较去年同 期增加了34.15%。结合公司2025年中报财务数据，2025上半年公司在研发方面投入了98.99亿元，同比 增2.51%。 数据来源：天眼查APP 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油天然气股份有限公司共对外投资了1299家企业，参与招投标项目443 次；财产线索方面有商标信息105条，专利信息48254条；此外企业还拥有行政许可168个。 ...