热点情报 消费领域迎来利好 11月26日下午，工信部、中国人民银行等六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实 施方案》。其中提出，到2027年，消费品供给结构明显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消 费热点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉全球的高品质消费品。 华创证券研报称，部分消费者服务行业的结构性复苏趋势正愈发明确，经营层面已现企稳改善迹象，逐 步走出底部区间，重点推荐关注以下两条主线：一是酒店行业，供需格局优化，经营数据稳步回暖。二 是免税行业，政策红利加持，静待行业新增量。 特发信息连收4个涨停板 11月26日，特发信息再度涨停，实现四连板走势，累计涨幅为46.53%。截至收盘，该股成交量229.63万 手，成交金额31.22亿元，换手率25.84%。最新A股总市值达125.33亿元，A股流通市值123.70亿元。 | 今开 13.65 | | 最高 | 13.92 | 成交量 229.63万手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | | 曼低 | | 成交额 | | 换手率 | 25.84% | 市盈(TTM) | 亏损 | 总市值 125 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] - The total trading volume exceeded 1.79 trillion yuan [1] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector experienced a late-afternoon surge, with Hai Xin Food hitting the daily limit and closing with over 170,000 buy orders [4][5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, focusing on new fields such as smart connected vehicles, smart home, and food [7][8] CPO Concept Stocks - CPO (Co-packaged Optics) concept stocks saw strong performance, with Long光华芯 and赛微电子 hitting the daily limit and rising over 16% respectively [9] AI Industry Outlook - Alibaba's CEO indicated that the demand for GPUs is currently at full capacity, suggesting that an AI bubble is unlikely in the next three years due to a supply-demand imbalance [12] - Daitong Securities maintains an optimistic outlook on the AI industry, highlighting the growth potential driven by demand for computing power and recommending investment in computing hardware [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The social services sector is showing resilience during the off-peak season, supported by fundamental data and a shift in funding styles, creating conditions for relative returns across industries [4]. - Key areas of focus include mid-cap blue-chip characteristics, growth potential, and recovery prospects in performance, particularly in OTA, hotels, human resources, and select dining and scenic spots [4]. Summary by Sections Hotels - The hotel sector demonstrates strong fundamentals with a recovery in performance. Huazhu reported a revenue of 7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous growth guidance [8]. - The national hotel RevPAR turned positive in October 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a stable volume and rising prices [8]. Scenic Spots - The demand for scenic spots remains robust due to the autumn holiday and the upcoming winter season, with double-digit growth in visitor numbers reported [8]. - For instance, the Jianmen Pass scenic area saw a 30% increase in visitors during the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [8]. Duty-Free - The duty-free shopping scene in Hainan is recovering, with sales reaching 506 million yuan from November 1-7, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [8]. - This recovery is attributed to low base effects, new policies, and promotional activities, alongside a shift in consumer behavior due to international travel restrictions [8]. OTA (Online Travel Agencies) - Ctrip's Q3 2025 report showed a net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [8]. - The international OTA orders grew by about 60%, with inbound travel orders doubling, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel demand [8].

Core Insights - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port has led to significant increases in foreign trade, with an average annual growth rate of 25.1% since 2020, indicating a continuous improvement in trade openness and convenience [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Economic Impact - Hainan's customs have implemented several policies to support high-level openness and quality development, including zero tariffs on three lists of imports, which have totaled 27.2 billion yuan in value and resulted in tax reductions of 5.15 billion yuan [1] - The processing and value-added tax exemption policy has been expanded to the entire island, benefiting 129 enterprises with a total domestic sales value of 11.1 billion yuan and tax reductions of 860 million yuan [1] - The "temporary export repair" and "temporary import repair" policies have shown positive results, with over 100 aircraft repaired under customs supervision and a total value of 2.7 billion yuan benefiting from the temporary export repair policy [2] Group 2: Innovation in Customs Regulation - Customs have introduced innovative regulatory measures for Hainan's key industries, such as seed industry revitalization and duty-free shopping, with seven innovative measures filed with the General Administration of Customs and 18 results selected as integrated innovation cases [2] - The duty-free shopping sector has seen over 210 billion yuan in monitored sales since 2020, with recent policy upgrades enhancing the variety of goods and allowing more purchases for departing travelers, resulting in monitored sales of 1.57 billion yuan in just 20 days [3] Group 3: Trade Facilitation and Logistics Efficiency - The customs have implemented over a hundred measures to optimize the business environment and promote cross-border trade facilitation, significantly benefiting key parks and industries [3] - The introduction of the "three same, three trace" regulatory model in the Yangpu Free Trade Port Area has reduced customs clearance times for food and raw materials by 70% [4] - The overall customs clearance time for imports and exports has been reduced by nearly 70%, with the customs laboratory recognized by the World Customs Organization, enhancing its capabilities [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the hotel and duty-free industries, indicating a positive outlook for operational improvements in these sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the overall pressure on consumption in the current macro environment, a structural recovery trend in certain consumer service sectors is becoming increasingly evident. Operational improvements are being observed, suggesting a gradual exit from the bottom range [4]. - The hotel industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand dynamics, with core operational data showing marginal improvements, indicating a mild upward trend in industry prosperity supported by sustained travel demand [4]. - The duty-free industry is expected to benefit from policy incentives, particularly with the upcoming operational phase in Hainan and the continued rollout of related policies, which are anticipated to catalyze new growth opportunities [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.86% this week, while the overall A-share market fell by 5.14%. The CSI 300 index decreased by 3.77% [7][23]. - Notable stocks in the consumer services sector that performed well include Dalian Shengya, Chuangye Heima, and Shangri-La (Asia) [4]. Important Announcements - Huazhu Group reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in hotel revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 30.6 billion yuan, with net profit of 1.5 billion yuan [30]. - Ctrip Group's Q3 net operating revenue was approximately 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth, with a net profit increase of 192.6% [30]. - Wanwu Xingsheng achieved a total revenue of 5.15 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 27.1% year-on-year increase [30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Bubu Gao on December 11, Guilin Tourism on December 5, and Guangzhou Restaurant on November 28 [31].

超配（维持） 强政策刺激消费，关注结构性机会 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 消费者服务行业 2026 年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 24 日 推荐 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 消费者服务指数走势 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 消费者服务行业 ◼ 行业回顾：2025年年初以来，消费者服务指数整体波动上涨。截至 2025年11月20日，消费者服务指数整体上涨9.82%，跑输沪深300指 数。细分板块均上涨，其中免税行业受到多重政策支持利好出现较大 幅度上涨，带动旅游休闲板块上升，酒店餐饮板块竞争仍较激烈但供 需格局有所缓和。在政 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the duty-free industry, specifically focusing on Shanghai Airport and its duty-free operations, including major players like Dayang Duty-Free and China Duty-Free Group (CDFG) [1][3][4]. Core Points and Arguments - **Bidding Process**: Shanghai Airport is undergoing a bidding process for duty-free operations. Dayang Duty-Free remains a key player due to its ability to participate as a foreign entity, maintaining a competitive edge [1][3]. - **Dispute on Terms**: There is a disagreement between Shanghai Airport and CDFG regarding rental fees and lease terms. CDFG aims to reduce the number of stores to increase commission rates, while the airport prefers to introduce more competitors to enhance overall competitiveness [1][3]. - **Current Competitors**: Currently, only Dayang and CDFG have purchased bidding documents and are preparing to participate. Other competitors have not been able to prepare adequately due to time constraints, leading to a relatively stable market landscape in the short term [1][4]. - **Commission Structure**: Shanghai Airport is expected to continue using a base rent plus a commission rate model, with an anticipated increase in overall commission rates to reflect performance growth, although specific details have yet to be disclosed [1][5]. - **Operational Pressure**: Increasing commission rates may add operational pressure. However, Shanghai Airport plans to adjust its channel strategy to mitigate costs, such as shifting resources from online to offline sales and optimizing supply chain management [1][6]. Additional Important Information - **Online Sales Suspension**: Dayang's online direct mail service in Shanghai has been suspended due to customs inspections revealing non-compliance with regulatory requirements. The future of this service depends on the progress of rectifications and customs reviews [1][7]. - **Rainbow Bridge Airport Segment**: The Rainbow Bridge Airport segment has been separately bid, but its sales volume is only about 10% of that of Pudong Airport, indicating a limited impact on the overall business layout. The participation of third parties in this segment remains uncertain [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan emphasizes a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite recent volatility, suggesting that the market is entering a favorable phase for investment as it approaches a critical window of policy and liquidity support from December to February [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market has experienced significant declines, with the ChiNext index down 12%, the STAR 50 index nearly 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech index down 22%, indicating that the market has already released much of its risk [1]. - The report highlights that the current pessimism among investors is driven by year-end profit protection, reduced positions, and external factors such as the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in U.S. markets [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Guotai Junan recommends increasing exposure to the Chinese market, particularly in technology, financial services, and consumer sectors, as the market is expected to stabilize and embark on a rally [1][3]. - Specific sectors to focus on include: - **Technology**: Growth in AI applications and infrastructure, with recommendations for internet, media, computing, and manufacturing sectors [3]. - **Financial Services**: Anticipated reforms in the capital market and early bank dividends, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks [3]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks, particularly in food, beverages, and tourism sectors, as macroeconomic risks decrease [3]. Future Outlook - The Chinese capital market is positioned for significant growth, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in non-financial sectors by 2026, driven by improved cash flows and reduced debt [2]. - The report suggests that the historical "guaranteed return" mindset is shifting, leading to increased asset management demand and a potential influx of new capital into the market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a critical zone after panic selling, presenting a buying opportunity as the period from December to February is expected to see a convergence of policies, liquidity, and fundamentals [1][2]. Market Analysis - The recent panic selling has significantly released market risks, with the Chinese stock market now in a favorable position for recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a 5% pullback, while the ChiNext Index has dropped 12%, the STAR Market 20%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index 22%, indicating that the adjustment period aligns with previous bull market corrections [2][3]. - The upcoming economic work conference is anticipated to set new expectations for the market, especially given the current economic slowdown and the importance of growth rates for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) signifies an acceleration in capital market reforms, with the rapid approval of 16 hard-tech ETFs reflecting regulatory commitment to stabilize the market [2][3]. Capital Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market is in a significant growth cycle, with substantial upward potential for stock indices. The factors that previously caused valuation discounts have dissipated, leading to a more stable outlook for the Chinese economy and capital markets [3]. - The demand for asset management is expected to surge, with projections indicating that the scale of new market entrants in 2026 may exceed current consensus estimates [3]. Investment Strategy - The focus for the upcoming cross-year market is on technology, financial services, and consumer sectors. Key recommendations include: 1. **Technology Growth**: Increased application of AI and a shortage of domestic computing infrastructure, with recommendations for investments in Hong Kong internet/media/computer sectors and manufacturing [4]. 2. **Financial Sector**: Anticipated reforms in capital markets are expected to boost risk appetite, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4]. 3. **Consumer Sector**: After three years of adjustment, consumer stocks are positioned for structural opportunities, particularly in food, beverage, agriculture, and tourism sectors [4]. Thematic Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and infrastructure investments in Xinjiang, particularly in clean energy and power grid sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuhai Duty Free Group (珠免集团) is undergoing a significant asset sale and related party transaction, selling 100% equity of Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 551,753.65 million yuan, aiming to focus on its core duty-free business and enhance operational quality and profitability [1][2][4]. Company Announcement Summary - The board of directors approved the major asset sale and related party transaction, which requires shareholder approval [1][2]. - The transaction is expected to optimize the company's asset structure and improve profitability, with a focus on the duty-free business [4][5]. - The independent directors confirmed the fairness of the transaction pricing and compliance with legal procedures [2][5]. Transaction Details - The transaction price for the sale of Gree Real Estate is set at 551,753.65 million yuan, constituting a major asset restructuring and related party transaction [1][4]. - The evaluation of the asset was based on the asset-based method, with a valuation date of July 31, 2025, and a determined value of 551,753.65 million yuan [2][6]. - The company has no other major asset transactions in the past 12 months aside from this significant asset exchange [5][7]. Financial Impact - Post-transaction, the company's net profit for 2024 is projected to improve significantly from a loss of 15.15 billion yuan to a loss of 0.92 billion yuan, with a turnaround to profitability in the first seven months of 2025 [5][7]. - The transaction is structured as a cash transfer and does not involve the issuance of shares, ensuring no dilution of immediate returns [5][6]. Compliance and Regulatory Aspects - The transaction is subject to approval from state-owned assets departments and the shareholders' meeting [5][6]. - The company has confirmed that there are no violations or illegal activities related to the real estate projects involved in the transaction [3][6]. - The independent financial advisor, Guotai Junan Securities, has verified that the transaction complies with relevant regulations and does not constitute a restructuring listing [6][7].