每日经济新闻 12月26日（周五），商贸零售、汽车、免税等可选消费板块高开高走。ETF方面，可选消费ETF （562580.SH）二级市场价格涨超1%，成分股百大集团涨停，比亚迪涨超6%，中国中免涨超4%，赛力 斯涨超2%。 西部证券指出：近期各种重磅政策反复强调消费"扩内需"的战略定位，在岁末年初各类经济数据"青黄 不接"的时候，消费"扩内需"政策高屋建瓴，能够明显提升消费板块的风险偏好。跨境资本外流以及房 价大跌，是最近5年消费行情持续偏弱的重要约束，当前这两道"封印"正在相继解除。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, indicating the start of a new appreciation cycle for the RMB, with significant implications for the economy and capital markets [2]. Impact on the Real Economy - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs for raw materials and advanced technology equipment, supporting industrial upgrades [2]. - The shift towards a stronger RMB will encourage the economy to transition from "price competition" to "brand, technology, and market diversification" [2]. - Companies will be pressured to enhance product value and competitiveness due to the appreciation of the RMB amidst positive growth in merchandise exports [2][3]. Impact on Specific Industries - Import-dependent industries, companies with significant USD liabilities, and certain service trade sectors are likely to benefit from RMB appreciation [3]. - Sectors such as energy, agriculture, and materials may see reduced import costs, while industries like aviation, duty-free, and outbound tourism could experience increased revenues [3]. Impact on Capital Markets - RMB appreciation is likely to attract capital inflows, positively affecting stocks and bonds across various asset classes [4]. - The valuation repair effect suggests that a 0.1 percentage point increase in the exchange rate could enhance stock valuations by 3% to 5% [5]. - The attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets is expected to increase, particularly for foreign investors, leading to accelerated cross-border capital inflows [5]. - Improved market confidence and liquidity are anticipated as the RMB strengthens, enhancing the appeal of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to foreign capital [5]. Summary of Effects on Households - The appreciation of the RMB enhances its purchasing power against foreign currencies, reducing costs for overseas travel, shopping, education, and medical services [6]. - A 10% appreciation of the RMB against the USD could lower costs for Chinese citizens traveling or studying in the U.S. by nearly 10% [6]. - The appreciation cycle may lead to rising asset prices, increasing the real value of RMB-denominated assets held by households, such as real estate [6].

（文章来源：中国证券报） 海南自由贸易港封关运作首周，离岛免税购物保持增长态势，消费热潮持续升温。据海口海关统计，封 关运作首周（12月18日—24日），海口海关共监管离岛免税购物金额11亿元，同比增长54.9%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the strong performance of duty-free sales in Sanya following the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure, with sales reaching 736 million yuan in the first week, a year-on-year increase of 48.2% [1] - The total number of visitors to Sanya during the same period was 635,000, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth [1] - Key growth categories in consumer spending included jewelry, watches, high-end cosmetics, clothing, and bags, indicating a shift towards premium products [1] Group 2 - The Sanya Municipal Bureau of Commerce has developed a series of consumption promotion plans in anticipation of the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival, focusing on enhancing the visibility of the new duty-free policies [2] - The promotion strategy includes leveraging the "0 Tax Day Group" IP with the slogan "Come to Sanya, Don't Tax," utilizing both online and offline channels to boost awareness [2] - Initiatives also involve organizing exclusive duty-free shopping events linked to large performances and cultural exhibitions to increase foot traffic and conversion rates to duty-free consumption [2]

七连阳的市场蕴含何种机会？和讯投顾孔晓云表示，今天在没有外资的情况下，盘面是放量收红，早盘 商业航天继续涨到大家头晕目眩的强劲格局，下午盘面先拉资源，后拉科计，明天八连阳会不会来谁也 说不好，但至少这种波段连续上涨，已经让市场情绪暖和起来了，给人感觉春季是不是在悄悄预热了， 等外资过完节回来，量能可能进一步的放大，市场向上的空间呢或许还能打开。 当前离岸美元对软民币汇率已踏入60关口，回顾过去20年7轮升值周期，约19%的行业会因为升值带来 利润率提升，更关键的因素可能来自政策应对，预示明年货币政策可能更容易超预期宽松，这对于激发 内需板块带动市场再上一个台阶有重要的意义。 具体配置方向可关注以下三条主线。例如短期进入记忆的品种，航空、燃气、造纸等在成本端或外债端 直接受益，股价弹性较高，利润率驱动品种上游的资源品和原材料，包括钢铁、有色、石油、炼化、基 础化工、建材、内需消费品，比如农产品服务业相关品种，比如航运进口等跨境电商。制造设备主要是 工程机械政策驱动品种，受益于潜在货币宽松的免税，以及受益于可能资本账户开放的券商保险全球化 潜力释放。 ...

Group 1 - The total sales of duty-free shops in Sanya reached 535 million yuan from December 18 to 22, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.3%, with daily sales exceeding 100 million yuan for five consecutive days [1] - On the first day of the closure on December 18, Sanya International Duty-Free City saw over 36,000 visitors, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and sales surged by 85% compared to the previous year, highlighting the strong impact of the closure on the consumption market [1] - The closure will significantly expand the categories and quotas of duty-free products in Hainan, simplify processes, enhance price competitiveness, attract global consumers, and promote industry upgrades [1] Group 2 - As of December 25, there are 32,400 existing duty-free related enterprises in China, with 45.02% of these established within the last three years [3][8] - The majority of duty-free related enterprises are concentrated in South China, accounting for over 51.62%, while East China holds 25.64% [6] - Hainan province alone accounts for nearly half of the existing duty-free related enterprises in the country, at 46.07%, indicating its dominance in this sector [8]

Core Points - The public announcement by China International Tendering Co., Ltd. indicates that the bidding evaluation for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport has been completed, with China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. winning the first bid for Terminal 3 and Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd. winning the first bid for Terminal 2 [2][4] - Both winning bids have a contract duration from the agreed start date until February 10, 2034, not exceeding 8 years [2][4] Group 1 - The first bid (01 section) covers an area of approximately 10,646.74 square meters, while the second bid (02 section) covers approximately 3,566.33 square meters [3][5] - The public announcement period is from December 22, 2025, 19:00 to December 25, 2025, 17:00 [3][5] Group 2 - The duty-free business at the capital airport has been operated by Sunrise Duty Free, which is controlled by China Duty Free Group with a 51% stake [5] - Following this bidding, Sunrise Duty Free has completely exited the duty-free business at Beijing and Shanghai airports, where it previously held a monopoly [5]

滚烫的数字，展现出旅客"买买买"的热情，更映照出海南自贸港经济发展的火热态势。 那么，这股消费之"火"从何来? 数据最直观，12月18日海南自贸港封关首日，三亚国际免税城进店客流超3.6万人次，同比增长超 60%;销售额同比上涨85%。市场的热烈反响，可以说是政策效果的最佳诠释。 李萌 来自优质的供给，引领消费提质升级。"十五五"规划建议对"大力提振消费"作出部署，提出"扩大 优质消费品和服务供给"。以新供给创造新需求，无疑是重要发力点。 连续5天破亿!连日来一组三亚免税市场的消费数据引发广泛关注——从12月18日至22日，全市免税 店销售额累计5.35亿元，连续5天单日销售额均突破亿元大关。 来自政策的东风，吹热市场的春水。12月18日，海南自贸港正式启动全岛封关，空前的高关注度， 也为海南带来高人气，旅游市场一片火热。而封关后，更加优惠的货物"零关税"政策、更加宽松的贸易 管理措施、更加便利的通行措施、更加高效精准的监管模式，与此前一再升级的离岛免税政策形成叠加 效应。一系列制度型开放的红利加速释放，为免税购物创造了前所未有的便利和机遇，释放出"四两拨 千斤"的作用。 此外，沉浸式的消费场景、便捷舒心的购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 has led to a significant rise in related stocks and a surge in duty-free shopping, indicating strong market potential for companies like China Duty Free Group (CDFG) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Growth - Hainan-related stocks, including Hainan Airport and China Duty Free, have seen substantial gains, with Hainan Development's stock price doubling since September [1]. - On the first day of the duty-free shopping policy, sales reached 161 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61%, and the number of shoppers increased by 53.1% [1][3]. - CDFG's stock has risen by 50% since June, reaching a two-year high, benefiting from the overall growth in the duty-free market [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - The new duty-free shopping policy implemented on November 1 allowed for the sale of additional product categories, leading to a 27.1% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts to 2.38 billion yuan [3]. - The number of duty-free items available has increased from over 1,900 to 6,637, enhancing the attractiveness of Hainan as a shopping destination [3][6]. - The introduction of "zero tariff" policies is expected to lower procurement costs for CDFG, potentially increasing its gross margin to 31.2% in 2024 [10][12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - CDFG currently holds a market share of 78.7% in the domestic duty-free market and 82% in Hainan's duty-free market, with Hainan accounting for about 60% of its total revenue [7][10]. - The zero-tariff policy may attract more competitors, potentially diluting CDFG's pricing power and market dominance [13][15]. - New entrants, including foreign companies, are beginning to compete in the duty-free sector, which could impact CDFG's market share in Hainan [20][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - While the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port presents new growth opportunities for CDFG, the overall consumer demand remains weak, which may hinder significant revenue recovery [25][26]. - CDFG's high static P/E ratio of 42.39 reflects market expectations for substantial growth, but if sales do not improve as anticipated, the stock may face downward pressure [27]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from price competition to a focus on brand, service, and experience, requiring CDFG to invest continuously to maintain its market position [27][28].

随着12月18日海南自贸港正式启动，全岛封关运作，海南相关概念股持续走高。 海南机场、神农种业、海峡股份等接连涨停，海南发展更是收获四连板，9月以来，海南发展股价已然翻倍。 而封关的优势已然显现，封关当日，三亚的免税消费就爆炸式增长。 封关后，海南"零关税"的商品清单从1900多项大幅增加到6637项，基本涵盖主要生产设备和原材料。 对于旅客而言，封关后的免税商品品类从45大类商品增加至47大类，新增了宠物用品和可随身携带的乐器两大类。 18日封关首日，海南离岛免税购物金额达1.61亿元，购物人数2.48万人次，分别同比暴涨61%和53.1%。 在此热潮下，连跌四年的中国中免，也一度迎来涨停。自今年6月以来，中免已然上涨50%，股价达到近两年新高。 但封关之后，中国中免真的能就此起飞吗？ 01 作为免税消费的桥头堡，早在11月1日，海南早已率先实施离岛免税购物新政，新增2个商品大类和优化调整3个商品细类， 允许6类国内商品在离岛免税店销售。 此后一个月，海南离岛免税购物金额23.8亿元，同比增长27.1%。 而封关运作，又给海南免税行业带来更为直接的利好。 在此前的大类中还新增了体重秤、干衣机、扫地机器人、微 ...