Group 1 - The A-share market has shown differentiation this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5%, while the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Index fell by 1.2%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a medium level historically since 2010 [1][11][12] - In April, the market typically enters a consolidation phase due to factors such as earnings disclosures and adjustments in analysts' profit expectations. Recent data indicates an increase in market uncertainty, as reflected in the rising fear index in the US stock market and the implied volatility of Hong Kong stock options [2][18][19] Group 2 - Three investment directions are highlighted during the market consolidation: domestic consumption, defensive assets, and self-sufficient industrial chains. The focus on domestic consumption is driven by recent domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [3][23][24] - Defensive assets, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, are recommended as they provide stability during uncertain market conditions. High-dividend sectors like coal, banking, and oil have shown resilience and are expected to perform well in uncertain times [32][33][36] - The self-sufficient industrial chain is emphasized due to the dual drive of the "dual circulation" development pattern and global industrial chain restructuring. This presents opportunities for domestic substitution in previously imported products, although challenges remain in achieving substantial progress [38][39] Group 3 - The market is expected to be in a consolidation phase, with a focus on defensive and cyclical styles. Historical data shows that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in April is only 40%, with a median monthly increase of -0.4% [4][39][44] - The upcoming Politburo meeting in April is anticipated to be a significant observation window for future policies, as current macroeconomic policies are expected to work in tandem to stimulate the economy [40][45] - Specific sectors to watch include defensive industries such as coal mining, electricity, and white goods, while cyclical sectors like livestock farming and oil refining are also highlighted for potential investment [46][48]

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根 据 《 从 结 构 化 视 角 全 新 打 造 市 场 情 绪 择 时 模 型 》 文 中 提 到 的 构 建 思 路 ， 目 前 我 们 用 于 构 建 市 场 情 绪 结 构 指 标 所 用 到 的 细 分 指 标 如 下 表 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度，趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 6 公众号 · 普罗完酒会工 | 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和 ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，当前已下降接近0轴，为0.1，数值较上周五(4/11)下降0.4，模型维持看空观点。 1.1 从分项指标出发：市场进一步缩量，资金不确定情绪增长 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪下行，速度没有呈现减缓趋势。本周市场情绪不确定性增强，风险偏好程度下降是市 场情绪进一步调整的主要原因。 下表展示了4月以来的情绪结构各分项指标的分数情况，从分项指标出发，本周明显提示信号切换的指标为科创50成 交占比和300RSI指标，分别代表了市场风险偏好程 ...

2025 年 04 月 21 日 关注优质底仓大盘以及临期转债 ▌市场展望与策略推荐 美国目前的情况与互联网泡沫破裂时（2001 年）非常相似， 川普政府一系列逆全球化操作，也正是上述经济背景下看似 偶然、实则必然的结果。从不好的一面来看，中国实际经济 增速将受到一定程度的冲击，具体影响尚有待观察；从好的 一面来看，美国主打的科技的估值或将被重新进行系统性的 重估，而中国也迎来了历史性的机遇，如果我们不忘初心、 文化自信，西降东升或已开启，重点关注人民币汇率是否开 始逐步进入升值通道。债市方面，一年期国债收益率基本接 券 研 究 报 告 固 定 收 益 研 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《价值权益资产仍最具性价比— —资产配置周报》2025-04-20 2、《转债表现出较强估值保护》 2025-04-13 3、《看多价值——资产配置周报》 2025-04-13 投资要点 ▌ 股债、转债市场回顾 上周权益市场仍受关税政策反复影响，防御情绪偏强，整体 缩量震荡，银 ...

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 一周市场数据复盘 20250418 [Table_Summary] ► 宽基指数表现 上周市场窄幅波动，上证综指、上证 50 表现较好，分别 上涨 1.19%、1.45%；创业板指、科创 50 指数出现下跌，跌幅 分别为 0.64%、0.31%。 今年以来小盘成长风格表现较好，中证 2000、科创 50 指 数涨幅排名靠前，分别上涨 0.45%、1.99%。 ► 行业指数表现 上周多数行业出现上涨，涨幅最大的行业是银行、房地 产，分别上涨 4.04%、3.40%；跌幅最大的行业是国防军工、 农林牧渔，分别下跌 2.55%、2.15%。 今年以来有色金属、银行行业表现最好，分别上涨 5.89%、3.51%。 当前 PE 分位数最高的三个行业是钢铁、建筑材料、房地 产，分别为 99%、97%、93%；PE 分位数最低的三个行业是公 用事业、食品饮料、农林牧渔，分别为 7%、11%、12%。 ► 行业拥挤度 上周没有行业出现交易拥挤。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Author] 分析师：张立宁 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall economic performance of Heilongjiang Province in 2024 shows a GDP of 16476.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.2% compared to the previous year [8] - The three major industries' contributions to GDP are as follows: primary industry at 3203.3 billion yuan (2.9% growth), secondary industry at 4147.3 billion yuan (-0.2% decline), and tertiary industry at 9126.2 billion yuan (4.7% growth) [8] - The province's population at the end of 2024 is 30.29 million, with an urbanization rate of 68.05%, reflecting a 0.94 percentage point increase from the previous year [14] - The agricultural sector shows a total output value of 5904.1 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.1%, and a grain production of 8001.7 million tons, maintaining the top position among provinces [20] - Industrial production has seen a decline of 3.1% in the added value of large-scale industries, with notable growth in the petrochemical industry at 7.9% [24][25] - Fixed asset investment increased by 6.0%, with significant growth in infrastructure investment at 11.0% [32][33] - The retail market shows a total social retail sales of 5738.9 billion yuan, growing by 1.9%, with a notable increase in online retail sales by 9.2% [34][35] - The province's foreign trade reached a total value of 3122.8 billion yuan, with exports growing by 14.4% [36] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Heilongjiang's GDP reached 16476.9 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.2% [8] - The three industries' contributions are 19.4% for primary, 25.2% for secondary, and 55.4% for tertiary [8] Population and Employment - The total population is 30.29 million, with an urbanization rate of 68.05% [14] - Urban employment increased by 37.7 million, exceeding the annual target by 125.5% [17] Agriculture - Total agricultural output value is 5904.1 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.1% [20] - Grain production is 8001.7 million tons, maintaining the top position nationally [20] Industry - Industrial added value decreased by 3.1%, with the petrochemical sector growing by 7.9% [24][25] - High-tech manufacturing increased by 4.1% [25] Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 6.0%, with infrastructure investment up by 11.0% [32][33] Trade - Total foreign trade value reached 3122.8 billion yuan, with exports increasing by 14.4% [36] Consumer Market - Social retail sales totaled 5738.9 billion yuan, growing by 1.9% [34] - Online retail sales increased by 9.2% [35]

Market Overview - The main indices showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.27% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry sectors, telecommunications, real estate, and banking performed well, while agriculture, commerce, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind [1] Concept Sector Performance - Overall, cobalt mining, 5G, and satellite internet concepts performed relatively well, whereas dairy, biotechnology, and food processing concepts showed weaker performance [1]

一季度净利润增幅排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告日 | 业绩预告类 | 预计净利润增幅中值 | 今年以来涨跌 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期 | 型 | （%） | （%） | | | 600206 | 有研新 材 | 2025.04.15 | 预增 | 14723.00 | 1.79 | 电子 | | 301165 | 锐捷网 | 2025.04.09 | 预增 | 4726.53 | -4.58 | 通信 | | | 络 | | | | | | | 688582 | 芯动联 | 2025.04.09 | 预盈 | 2815.01 | 28.86 | 电子 | | | 科 | | | | | | | 688186 | 广大特 | 2025.03.31 | 预增 | 1504.79 | 60.33 | 钢铁 | | | 材 | | | | | | | 002734 | 利民股 | 2025.04.08 | 预盈 | 1395.38 | 45.67 | 基础化 | | | 份 | | | | | 工 | | 600969 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-14 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《陆股通 Q1 增持汽车电子机械，减持 电力通信化工——陆股通 2025Q1 持仓 点评》 - 2025.04.13 《上证受政策影响但未跌破重要点位， ETF 大幅流入科创芯片等 TMT 方向—— 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250406 》 – 2025.04.06 《"924"以来融资资金防守后均见到行 情低点，仍关注科技配置机会——行业 轮动周报 20250330》 - 2025.03.31 《 Gemini 2.5 Pro 发 布 即 屠 榜 ， DeepSeek V3 完成模型更新——AI 动态 汇总 20250331》 – 2025.03.31 《低波风格持续，反转占优——中邮因 子周报 20250330》 – 2025.03.31 《为什么说本轮调整空间不会太大？ ——微盘股指 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a broad decline, with consumption and stability sectors performing relatively better [3][10] - The major indices showed a general decline in valuation, with the stable sector performing the best and the ChiNext index performing the weakest [3][10] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, retail, and national defense industries had the highest gains, while power equipment, telecommunications, and machinery equipment performed the weakest [13][35] Group 2 - The overall valuation of the broad market indices has declined, with the current valuations of major indices at around the 50% historical percentile [26][27] - The valuation of various sectors is differentiated, with non-bank financials, coal, oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, transportation, and agriculture at near one-year lows [35][38] - The consumer sector is noted to have relatively cheap valuations based on PE and PB deviation metrics [38][43] Group 3 - The earnings expectations across industries have been generally revised downwards, with the steel sector seeing the largest upward adjustment and the real estate sector experiencing the largest downward adjustment [49]