Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) and A-shares (A股) shows significant fluctuations, with the North Exchange experiencing a maximum increase of 29.99% for the top-performing stock on May 8, 2025[9] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of May 8, 2025[7] Stock Highlights - The top ten stocks by increase on May 8, 2025, had an average market capitalization of 19.06 billion CNY, with the highest PE ratio recorded at 570.74 for Tongyi Aerospace (通易航天) despite a negative net profit[9] - Conversely, the bottom ten stocks by decrease had an average market capitalization of 32.48 billion CNY, with the largest drop of -7.57% for Qiule Seed Industry (秋乐种业)[10] Valuation Insights - The PE ratio for the North Exchange companies varies significantly across industries, indicating diverse valuation levels, with some sectors like electronics showing extremely high PE ratios, such as 2,690.19 for Huiwei Intelligent (慧为智能)[11] - The valuation trends for the North Exchange compared to the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market indicate a competitive landscape, with the North Exchange showing a steady increase in valuation metrics[12] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and overall market volatility[14]

目前，沪深5100余家上市公司披露了2024年年报和2025年一季报。总体看，去年以来，一系列稳增长政策陆续落地，资本市场改革措施持续显效，新质生产 力发展不断取得新进展，上市公司业绩显现不少亮点。 总体业绩韧性显现 部分行业表现亮眼 从2024年年报看，74%的沪深上市公司实现盈利，48%的公司盈利正增长。从一季报看，今年一季度，上市公司实现净利润1.5万亿元，同比增长3.6%，较年 报上升5.9个百分点。 将上市公司业绩放到经济社会发展中来看，2024年，沪深上市公司营业收入相当于GDP的56%，实体上市公司利润总额相当于规模以上工业企业利润总额的 54.9%，上市公司在国民经济中的重要性进一步凸显。 去年以来，一系列稳增长政策举措发力显效，多个行业上市公司业绩表现亮眼。 扩内需政策持续发力，"以旧换新""国补"等政策激发居民部分耐用品消费需求。2024年，家用电器、汽车行业上市公司净利润同比分别增长7.1%、11.1%， 较三季报提升1.7和1.5个百分点。 同时，社会出行、客运货运日益活跃。2024年，交通运输行业上市公司净利润同比增长11.5%，较2024年三季报提升4.7个百分点；机场、航空公司业 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares stabilized in Q1 2025, with a notable improvement in non-financial sectors, where the net profit growth rate reached 5.13%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rate [11][15][19] - Among 30 industries, 17 showed a year-on-year increase in net profit growth, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which saw substantial revenue and profit growth [3][29] - The financial sector exhibited a mixed performance, with state-owned banks under pressure while non-bank financial institutions showed a significant recovery, with a net profit increase of 21.30% [38][40] Group 2 - Price pressures persist across various industries, with 23 out of 30 industries having a sales net profit margin below 10%, indicating ongoing challenges despite some sectors experiencing a "turnaround" [4][41] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors have shown significant profit improvements, indicating a recovery from previous downturns [4][44] - The consumer electronics sector benefited from government policies, with household appliances seeing a net profit increase of 25.12% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [4][44] Group 3 - From a PB-ROE perspective, 14 out of 30 industries showed improved ROE compared to the previous year, particularly in the TMT sector, where electronic and media industries saw significant gains [5][45] - The communication sector within the technology industry has substantial valuation recovery potential, while the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors also show signs of potential recovery [5][48] - Public utility sectors maintain stable performance and low valuations, indicating strong long-term investment value [5][49] Group 4 - Future industry allocation should focus on three main lines: the sustained growth of the TMT sector, the recovery of low-position cyclical stocks, and the stability of defensive sectors [6][54] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, particularly for private technology enterprises, while low-position cyclical stocks like oil and non-ferrous metals are showing signs of recovery [6][54] - Defensive sectors such as public utilities and transportation are projected to remain stable amid ongoing economic pressures, providing a strong safety margin for investors [6][55]

Core Insights - The average annual salary of A-share chairpersons shows a significant concentration in the range of 1 million to 2 million yuan, with 1,402 individuals, accounting for one-third of the total [1][4] - The total disclosed annual salary for 4,231 listed companies reached 5.789 billion yuan, with 13 chairpersons earning over 10 million yuan [1][4] - The number of chairpersons with annual salaries exceeding 10 million yuan has decreased from 27 in 2022 to 16 in 2023, and further down to 13 in 2024 [4] Salary Distribution - The top three highest-paid chairpersons are from the biopharmaceutical industry, with WuXi AppTec's chairman earning 41.8 million yuan, followed by Mindray Medical's chairman at 24.939 million yuan, and BeiGene's chairman at 20.1938 million yuan [2][3] - The salary distribution is characterized by an olive-shaped curve, with fewer individuals earning higher salaries; for instance, there are 381 individuals earning between 2 million and 3 million yuan, and only 67 earning between 4 million and 5 million yuan [6] Salary Changes - A total of 3,765 chairpersons had comparable salaries from 2023 to 2024, with 1,377 experiencing a decrease (37%) and 1,985 seeing an increase (58%) [8] - Notable salary reductions were observed among high-earning chairpersons, with some experiencing declines of over 90% due to poor company performance [9][10] Industry Performance - The salary trends reflect a dichotomy in industry performance, with high salaries in thriving sectors like media, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, while industries like real estate and finance are facing salary cuts [11][13] - The average salary for chairpersons in the media industry was 1.78 million yuan, the highest among 31 sectors, while the average salary in the construction and defense sectors was below 1 million yuan [12][13]

Market Overview - On May 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.80%, with the total margin trading balance reaching 1,808.746 billion yuan, an increase of 7.402 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai market was 919.064 billion yuan, up by 3.047 billion yuan; in the Shenzhen market, it was 884.493 billion yuan, up by 4.291 billion yuan; and in the Beijing Stock Exchange, it was 5.189 billion yuan, up by 0.065 billion yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Among the industries tracked by Shenwan, 16 sectors saw an increase in margin trading balances, with the non-bank financial sector leading with an increase of 1.761 billion yuan, followed by the computer and defense industries with increases of 1.507 billion yuan and 1.263 billion yuan, respectively [1] Stock Performance - A total of 1,896 stocks experienced an increase in margin trading balances, accounting for 51.66% of the total, with 363 stocks seeing an increase of over 5% [1] - The stock with the largest increase in margin trading balance was Zhongheng Electric, which had a latest balance of 100.3126 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 87.28% from the previous trading day, and its stock price rose by 1.69% [1] - Other notable stocks with significant increases in margin trading balances included Rishidongfang and Huiwei Intelligent, with increases of 69.89% and 58.51%, respectively [1] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the largest increases in margin trading balances, the average increase in stock prices was 5.42%, with notable gainers including Tongyi Aerospace, Daye Co., and Huiwei Intelligent, which saw increases of 25.11%, 20.01%, and 14.01%, respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the largest declines included Chunguang Intelligent, Aima Technology, and Daimai Co., with declines of 5.59%, 3.87%, and 2.93%, respectively [2] Margin Trading Balance Declines - In contrast to the stocks with increased margin trading balances, 1,774 stocks saw a decrease, with 226 stocks experiencing declines of over 5% [4] - The stock with the largest decline in margin trading balance was Xiexin Nengke, with a latest balance of 45.24795 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 37.65% from the previous trading day [5] - Other stocks with significant declines included Oukang Pharmaceutical and Hengxing Technology, with decreases of 29.99% and 27.74%, respectively [5]

Core Insights - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) reported that 265 companies achieved a total net profit of 11.03 billion yuan in 2024, with 225 companies profitable, resulting in a profitability rate of 85% [1][2] - Companies listed on the BSE increased their R&D investment to over 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, demonstrating a commitment to innovation and quality improvement [1][4] Financial Performance - The total operating revenue for BSE companies was 180.845 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year, with 31 companies exceeding 1 billion yuan in revenue [2] - 120 companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, with 42 companies achieving positive net profit growth for three consecutive years [2] - The top three companies by net profit were Better Energy, Tongli Co., and Jinbo Bio, with net profits of 930 million yuan, 793 million yuan, and 732 million yuan respectively [2] Industry Trends - The consumer and automotive sectors showed signs of recovery, with net profit growth of 8.75% in automotive-related industries, driven by policies promoting automotive consumption [3] - The home appliance and textile sectors experienced net profit increases of 18.99% and 14.40% respectively, while the engineering machinery sector saw a 13.44% rise in net profit [3] - Conversely, the basic chemical and photovoltaic equipment sectors faced declines in net profit of 72.93% and 43.12% respectively due to market adjustments [3] R&D and Innovation - BSE companies collectively invested over 9.1 billion yuan in R&D, with more than 60% of companies increasing their R&D spending year-on-year [4] - The average R&D intensity reached 5.04%, with 41 companies exceeding a 10% R&D intensity [4] - Over half of the companies on the BSE are recognized as national "little giant" enterprises, highlighting their innovative capabilities [4] Mergers and Acquisitions - The BSE has seen five companies complete refinancing, raising a total of 1.35 billion yuan, and three companies plan to issue targeted convertible bonds to raise 370 million yuan [5] - Companies are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance innovation and expand production capabilities, with notable examples including Jiahua Technology's acquisition of a Vietnamese paper products company [5] Shareholder Returns - Over 90% of profitable companies announced dividend plans, totaling 5.968 billion yuan in 2024, with more than 30% of companies distributing over 50% of their net profits as dividends [6] - The BSE also saw a high volume of share buyback plans, with 28 new buyback plans announced in 2024, totaling over 798 million yuan [6] - Investor relations management improved significantly, with over 7,000 institutional surveys conducted and more than 300 investor engagement activities held throughout the year [6]

寻找确定性——2025年5月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 2025年5月6日 证券研究报告 4、风险提示 2 核心观点 1 核心问题一：指数韧性来自于内部确定性。4月A股市场先抑后扬，赚钱效应表现一般。短期来看，外部情绪风险扰动最严重的时 候或许已经过去，内部政策与中长期资金的确定性是指数保持韧性的主要驱动因素。 核心问题二：未来还会有哪些变化？外部变化可能会趋于复杂。关税政策下美国经济和通胀均压力增大，同时面临美元指数持续下 行、美债到期规模新高等问题，此外本轮特朗普政府恐怕难以通过2018年的减税手段来对冲关税对美国内部的冲击，因此关税问 题后续变化值得期待。不过，关税之外，美国对华或许还有其他"遏制"手段，参考2018年，或许以科技、制造业管制和投资限 制为主。不过国内仍有政策刺激空间，关注扩大内需、鼓励外贸、刺激投资与地产等方向。未来市场的主导因素将从风险偏好逐步 转向基本面。 核心问题三：有哪些确定性主线？1）内需消费，扩内需一直是近期国内政策的重点，未来有望持续迎来政策催化，此外，消费行 业业绩整体更具韧性，建议关注家居用品、食品加工、厨卫电器、小家电等行业 ...

Group 1 - A-shares indices opened significantly higher today, with high free cash flow assets performing strongly, including stocks like Zhenhua Heavy Industries, Laibao High-tech, Tailong Co., Laofengxiang, and Hisense Home Appliances, all rising over 3% [1] - The news conference by the State Council Information Office introduced a "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations," including plans to approve 60 billion yuan for long-term investments by insurance funds and adjustments to solvency regulatory rules, reducing stock investment risk factors by 10% [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, focusing on improving corporate governance and performance while increasing the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) tracks the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, which is primarily distributed across the automotive, home appliance, oil and petrochemical, and coal industries [2] - The index categorizes companies into two main types: low-valuation cyclical assets like oil and petrochemicals, and high-quality assets primarily in the automotive and home appliance sectors, focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and business models [2]

发布时间：2025-05-07 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 所有财报季中，一季报业绩最适合采用自下而上视角中"业绩预 期差"策略。以样本个股相对万得全 A 指数获得超额收益的概率为胜 率，2010 年至今一季报业绩超预期个股的胜率均值显著高于其他报告 期。相较之下 A 股市场对年报超预期的反映最为平淡，是 4 个财报季 中业绩超预期胜率最低的。 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《定价权在谁手(1)：庶民的盛宴和春 季躁动下半场》 - 2025.03.18 策略观点 业绩之锚 2：A 股如何定价一季报中的超预期？ ⚫ 投资要点 A 股市场在定价一季报业绩超预期时存在明显行业偏好。对消费 类行业（食品饮料、家用电器、商贸零售）和交易景气逻辑的成长行 业（电子、医药生物、电力设备、国防军工 ...

自由现金流ETF（159201） 5月7日，国证自由现金流指数盘中上行，成分股莱宝高科、太龙股份、金洲管道、华谊集团、欧圣电气等领涨。最低费率一档的自由现金流 ETF(159201)跟随指数上行，盘中成交额突破2.3亿元。 消息面上，金融监管总局局长李云泽在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，充分发挥保险资金作为耐心资本和长期资本的作用，调整偿付能力的监 管规则，将股票投资的风险因子进一步调降10%，鼓励保险公司加大入市力度。 业内人士认为，社保基金、险资、QFII等长线资金的重仓股有所重合，与其投资特性相关。一般长线资金会更为注重投资标的的长期表现，因 此也更关注上市公司的业绩情况与未来发展的前景。对高股息、高自由现金流资产配置需求有望进一步加大，尤其是新会计准则 （IFRS9/IFRS17）下可计入 FVOCI（以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益）科目的标的，以平抑利润表波动。 国证自由现金流指数行业分布以汽车、家用电器、石油石化和煤炭为主。行业分布主要可以分为两类，一类是以低估值著称的的石油石化、煤 炭等周期资产，一类是以汽车、家用电器类为主的高质量资产。总体来看，指数优选基本面稳健、经营模式稳定、营业模式 ...