新华社北京8月1日电 题：多维发力推动我国物流运行稳中有进——解读2025年上半年我国物流运行数 据 新华社记者叶昊鸣 中国物流与采购联合会日前公布2025年上半年我国物流运行数据。上半年，全国社会物流总额为171.3 万亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长5.6%。 "上半年我国社会物流总额增速高于GDP增速0.3个百分点，反映出物流需求对经济发展的支撑作用依然 较强，彰显出我国物流需求支撑经济稳健发展的基础作用。"中国物流与采购联合会会长蔡进说。 工业领域物流运行总体平稳、稳中有进。数据显示，上半年我国工业品物流总额同比增长5.8%，对社 会物流总额增长的贡献率为85%。"物流需求核心支柱地位持续巩固，为工业经济稳定和产业链供应链 畅通提供了坚实保障。"中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航说。 上半年，我国物流业总收入6.9万亿元，同比增长5%，增速比一季度提高0.1个百分点。中国物流业景气 指数平均值为50.5%，比一季度回升0.3个百分点，业务总量指数、新订单指数、库存周转次数指数、资 金周转率指数、固定资产投资完成额指数、从业人员指数和业务活动预期指数等关键指标均处在扩张区 间。"物流行业景气水平整体良好，在产业升 ...

Core Insights - The total social logistics volume in China reached 171.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, indicating a stable and progressive development in the logistics industry [1] - The logistics volume of industrial products grew by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing 85% to the overall growth of social logistics, which supports the stability of the industrial economy and the smooth operation of supply chains [1] - The logistics demand in the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 10.9%, while the high-tech manufacturing sector saw a 9.7% rise, highlighting these areas as significant growth drivers for logistics demand [1] - The logistics volume for 3D printing equipment and industrial robots exceeded a 20% year-on-year increase, reflecting strong demand in these advanced manufacturing sectors [1] - The import logistics volume of major commodities such as crude oil and iron ore has shown recovery, aided by policies promoting domestic demand and consumption [1] - The logistics volume for consumer goods increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with notable growth in logistics demand for electronic products and travel-related consumption [1] Sector Performance - The logistics volume for renewable resources grew by 17% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - There is a developing synergy in logistics across sectors such as automotive and home appliances, with logistics volumes for products like cars, tablets, smartphones, and washing machines all exceeding 10% growth [2]

Group 1 - The Chairman Zhao Leji's visit to Hungary from 24th to 28th aims to strengthen bilateral relations and mutual support, emphasizing China's appreciation for Hungary's adherence to the One China principle [2] - China welcomes more high-quality Hungarian agricultural products in its market and seeks policy support for Chinese investments in Hungary [2] - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban highlighted the significance of President Xi Jinping's state visit last year, marking a milestone in China-Hungary relations and emphasizing Hungary's strategic choice to develop friendly cooperation with China [2] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, China's total social logistics exceeded 171 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, indicating a stable growth in logistics demand [4] - The contribution of industrial goods logistics to the total social logistics growth was 85%, providing solid support for the stability of the industrial economy and the smooth operation of supply chains [4] - Emerging industries showed strong logistics demand growth, with logistics demand in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10.9% and 9.7% year-on-year, respectively [4] Group 3 - In the first half of the year, the "work-for-relief" program in China has absorbed 2.08 million low-income individuals for nearby employment, a 32% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - A total of 22.3 billion yuan in labor remuneration was distributed, marking a 34% increase year-on-year, with over 20,000 projects initiated under this program [6] Group 4 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with 10 other departments, has introduced a plan with 23 specific measures to expand new consumption spaces for agricultural products, aiming to meet the evolving consumer demands [7] Group 5 - A new central enterprise automobile group, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd., was established in Chongqing, consisting of 117 subsidiaries, focusing on green, low-carbon, and intelligent products to stimulate domestic demand [9]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the industrial value added of large-scale industries in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing a remarkable growth of 10.2%, highlighting its crucial role in supporting industrial economic development [1] Group 1: Equipment Manufacturing Growth - The equipment manufacturing industry is a vital force driving industrial growth, contributing 3.4 percentage points to the overall industrial growth and accounting for 35.5% of the total industrial output [1] - All eight sub-sectors within equipment manufacturing experienced growth, with notable increases in the automotive and electronics sectors [1] Group 2: Policy Impact on Equipment Demand - The equipment renewal policy has stimulated demand across various industries, encouraging enterprises to replace outdated equipment with advanced production tools through financial support and policy incentives [2] - The "old-for-new" policy effectively released consumption potential in the equipment manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive and consumer electronics markets, leading to increased production and demand for related manufacturing equipment [2] Group 3: Industrial Upgrade and Transformation - The rapid growth of the equipment manufacturing sector signifies important progress in industrial upgrading, addressing the long-standing issue of high-end capacity shortages in Chinese manufacturing [3] - The sector is advancing towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, supported by policies and funding aimed at overcoming technological bottlenecks and enhancing production efficiency [3] Group 4: Synergistic Development of the Supply Chain - The growth in equipment manufacturing has fostered collaborative development across the supply chain, with increased orders for raw materials from upstream suppliers and enhanced procurement capabilities in downstream application industries [3] - This creates a virtuous cycle within the industrial chain, where demand for equipment drives growth in both upstream and downstream sectors [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The equipment manufacturing sector is expected to continue playing a stabilizing role in industrial growth, supported by policy backing, market demand, and technological innovation [4]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as in March [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening compared to March, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1][2] - Energy prices fell by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] Group 2: Food and Service Prices - Food prices saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which is above seasonal levels; beef prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month due to reduced imports [2] - Travel service prices increased significantly, with airfares rising by 13.5%, vehicle rental fees by 7.3%, hotel accommodation by 4.5%, and tourism prices by 3.1% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating the gradual effect of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [2] Group 3: High-Tech Industry Impact - The development of high-tech industries, such as smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing, has led to price increases in related sectors, with wearable device manufacturing prices rising by 3.0% year-on-year [3] - The diversification of trade and market expansion has resulted in price increases or reduced declines in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which saw a 2.7% year-on-year price increase [3] - Recent financial support policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to provide significant support for future price trends [3]

Group 1 - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall decline in CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Group 2 - The PPI data showed signs of marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and certain manufacturing sectors experiencing reduced year-on-year price declines [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price level, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to the impact of previous consumption-boosting policies [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The HC2510 contract fluctuated on Monday. The overall hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand is resilient, but the cost support weakens as coal and coke prices decline in the late trading. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards with shrinking red bars. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume is 1,525,709 lots, up 999 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 78,901 lots, down 7,318 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC daily warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 67,543 tons, down 1,192 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 107 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.85%, up 0.04%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 327.24 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, up 0.45%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.22 million tons, up 1.70 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 262.94 million tons, down 0.71 million tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the steel net export volume is 1,010 million tons, up 16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales is 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units. Last week, the number of steel mill maintenance and复产 production lines increased compared with the previous week. 9 provinces had steel mills with production line maintenance, with 9 maintenance lines (2 more than the previous week) and 8复产 lines (3 more than the previous week). The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 18.03 million tons this week [2]. Industry News - China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so - called tariff reductions. Canada will impose a 50% tariff on steel products imported from countries without a free - trade agreement with Ottawa that exceed the quota [2].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, indicating a stable core price trend [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor for the CPI decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI drop [2] - The increase in core CPI and industrial consumer goods prices, along with rising prices for gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable goods, reflects positive changes in certain sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Hotel accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month in May, respectively, with hotel prices reaching a near ten-year high [4] - The "May Day" holiday saw 314 million domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [6] - The tourism sector is becoming a significant growth area for consumer spending, supported by improved visa and travel policies, leading to a 130% year-on-year increase in inbound travel orders during the holiday [6][8] Group 3 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a widening year-on-year decline, but marginal changes indicate improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [9] - Consumer demand is shifting towards quality over price, with increased demand for high-end and energy-efficient products, driving price improvements in related sectors [10][12] - The manufacturing prices for high-end equipment and technology products, such as aircraft and semiconductor devices, have shown year-on-year increases, reflecting a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green development in industries [12]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued impact of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, significantly affecting the overall CPI decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [1] Group 2 - PPI data showed marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and some manufacturing prices narrowing their year-on-year decline [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Economic analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price index, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to previous consumption-boosting policies [2]

Group 1 - The recent suspension of the "National Subsidy" program in some regions is primarily due to the exhaustion of previous subsidy funds, with new funds yet to be allocated [1][2] - As of May 31, the total consumption of the national subsidy funds reached approximately 1550 to 1650 billion yuan, accounting for half of the total scale of 3000 billion yuan [1] - The "618" shopping festival is expected to further consume subsidy funds, while companies are also engaging in discount promotions, particularly in the automotive sector, indicating a downward price trend [1][2] Group 2 - The suspension of the "National Subsidy" is aimed at avoiding fund misallocation and price interference, with expectations for adjustments and continuation in the second half of the year [2] - Retail sales of home appliances have shown significant growth, with a 38.8% year-on-year increase in April for major retail units, marking the highest growth among 16 categories of consumer goods [2] - The government has implemented four rounds of consumer subsidy policies since 2009, with previous rounds demonstrating a high multiplier effect on consumption during the subsidy period, although this effect tends to decline over time due to overdraw effects and increased product ownership [2] Group 3 - The use of fiscal subsidies to promote consumption is seen as a short-term measure, while establishing a long-term mechanism for expanding domestic demand is essential for sustainable growth [3] - The government aims to create a virtuous cycle between economic development, income increase, and consumption expansion, emphasizing the need for a balance between short-term policy incentives and long-term institutional building [3] - Recent government directives highlight the importance of investing in people and improving livelihoods, which will support the foundation for expanding consumption [3]