Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework with Hubei MChain Technology Group to enhance its liquor business operations and development in mainland China [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The cooperation aims to improve the domestic recognition and sales performance of the "Emperor Pool" series of sauce liquor [1] - The framework agreement is effective for one year from the date of signing [1] - The partnership is expected to lower operational costs and increase profits, aligning with the company's market expansion strategy [1] Group 2: Partner Profile - Hubei MChain Technology Group specializes in online promotion and sales, market research, and data analysis [1] - Since 2023, the company has focused on providing technical solutions to help clients enhance their online business and market influence [1] Group 3: Board Perspective - The board believes the framework agreement offers mutual benefits and creates synergies, aligning with the overall interests of the company and its shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of five new whiskey products by the Laizhou Distillery marks a significant step in establishing a second growth curve for the company, with a focus on unique flavors and local characteristics [1][3]. Product Launch and Marketing Strategy - On June 19, Laizhou Distillery introduced five single malt whiskey products, including STR Red Wine Barrel (46% vol, 279 RMB), Peated Bourbon Barrel (50% vol, 339 RMB), Fino Sherry Barrel (46% vol, 339 RMB), Amontillado Sherry Barrel (66% vol, 499 RMB), and Laizhou Selection (40% vol, 229 RMB), all in 700ml bottles [1]. - The company utilized interactive marketing strategies, such as a "blind box guessing challenge" and various audience engagement activities during the launch event to maintain consumer interest and drive sales [2]. Brand and Channel Development - Laizhou Distillery has established a dual-brand product matrix, complementing its existing offerings with the new whiskey line, which is expected to accelerate channel distribution efforts [2]. - The company plans to penetrate the market further by collaborating with distributors of both white spirits and liquors, enhancing its market presence [2]. Production Capacity and Competitive Advantage - As of June 15, Laizhou Distillery completed the filling of its 500,000th aging barrel, aiming to reach a target of 1 million barrels of original liquor within the next 4-5 years, which will solidify its production capacity advantage [3]. - By the end of 2024, the company anticipates that its original liquor reserves and annual production capacity will account for 80% of the domestic whiskey market [3]. - The company has diversified its flavor profile by utilizing over 50 types of oak barrels, including local varieties, which supports innovation in flavor and production techniques [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.391 billion RMB and 3.953 billion RMB in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 16.6% [3]. - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 810 million RMB and 997 million RMB for 2025 and 2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.6% and 23.0% [3].

在银行业方面，摩根士丹利认为，2025年美联储的年度银行压力测试将比2024年更轻松。根据摩根士丹 利的分析，今年的压力测试预计会显示银行的资本充足率下降幅度较小，表明大部分美国银行的压力资 本缓冲将维持在较低水平或相对持平。该测试是美联储评估美国大型银行应对经济衰退和潜在金融危机 能力的关键工具，投资者对银行股的关注度逐渐上升。 随着市场继续消化美联储货币政策决议和以伊冲突走向相关信息，纽约股市三大股指20日高开低走，盘 中弱势盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 尽管美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特6月19日关于美国总统特朗普将在"接下来两周内"决定是否下令美 军对伊朗发动打击的表态暂时缓解了市场对美国很快直接介入以色列与伊朗冲突的担忧，但投资者依然 保持谨慎，在周末到来前倾向于回避风险。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨35.16点，收于42206.82点，涨幅为0.08%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌13.03点，收于5967.84点，跌幅为0.22%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌98.86点，收于 19447.41点，跌幅为0.51%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六跌五涨。通信服务 ...

Group 1: Company Developments - Guyue Longshan stated that its coffee yellow wine product, "Fei Huang Teng Da," is suitable for young consumers and can be consumed in moderation without health concerns [1] - Luckin Coffee's new innovation production center in Qingdao aims to become the largest coffee roasting production base in China, with an expected annual output of 55,000 tons of roasted coffee beans and an annual output value of 3 billion yuan [3] - Baifei Dairy announced plans to establish "Guangxi Baifei Tianrui Dairy Buffalo Breeding Co., Ltd." to develop dairy buffalo breeding, following its recent IPO acceptance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - Cafebreak announced its partnership with the "Su Super" Jiangsu City Football League to enhance brand promotion and fan engagement through various marketing activities [2] - Hu Shang A Yi revealed that the tea beverage market is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2028, with fruit tea and milk tea being the most popular categories among consumers [5]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 于思淼 执业证书：S0600123070030 yusm@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -17% -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 31% 39% 47% 55% 2024/6/20 2024/10/19 2025/2/17 2025/6/18 百润股份 沪深300 市场数据 崃州新品正式上市，第二曲线渐入佳境 2025 年 06 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 ...

Industry Dynamics - In the first five months, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 278.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4] - In May, China's beer export volume increased by 52.9% year-on-year, totaling 78.41 million liters, while the export value rose by 59.6% to 406.94 million yuan [4] - During the "618" shopping festival, Meituan's flash purchase platform reported a more than tenfold increase in white liquor sales compared to the same period last year [5] - The 2025 Sichuan International Wine Expo opened, featuring over 100 renowned wine companies from more than 10 countries [5] - Three companies, including Wuliangye, Shede, and Budweiser, were selected as advanced intelligent factories in Sichuan for 2025 [5] - Chengdu's ecological environment bureau issued "15 measures" to support the high-quality development of the liquor industry [6] Company Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai won the "Investor Relations Management Tianma Award" for its outstanding practices and shareholder returns [7] - Wuliangye issued a consumer notice clarifying that it has never sold a product called "Light Bottle Eighth Generation Wuliangye," which violates food safety laws [7] - Wuliangye's new smart packaging project is expected to enter trial production by the end of this year, with an estimated annual sales of over 3 billion yuan [8] - Jian Nan Chun's second phase of the Grand Tang National Liquor Ecological Park began production, adding 30,000 tons of quality raw liquor capacity and creating 3,000 jobs [9] - Zhujiang Beer announced a leadership change, with Huang Wensheng appointed as the new chairman [9] - Zhangyu Cabernet N188 won the highest award at the Decanter World Wine Awards, marking a significant achievement for Chinese wine [9]

Group 1: Company Strategy - The company’s strategy includes "county-based" development as part of its "Four Modernizations" strategy, which also encompasses youth-oriented, international, and terminal-focused approaches [3] - County-based marketing is prioritized due to its alignment with the current economic environment in China, where county-level markets are less affected by economic pressures [3] - The company aims to optimize its product and marketing strategies to reflect county characteristics, especially within Qinghai Province [3] Group 2: Product and Market Development - The company has a diverse product range in the light bottle liquor market, including brands like Huzhu Daqu and Bai Qingke, with Bai Qingke performing notably well in the province [4] - Adjustments have been made to expand channels outside Qinghai, focusing on light bottle liquor and mid-range boxed liquor to align with market trends [4] - The company is responding to the trend of rational consumption by optimizing its product structure [4] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The impact of the alcohol ban on regional famous liquors is relatively minor, as the company’s main products cater to daily consumer needs [5] - The company is accelerating its county-based strategy to mitigate the effects of the ban and is focusing on differentiating its products, particularly those made from barley [5] Group 4: Product Line Management - The star product series, which generates the highest sales, has undergone brand revitalization and the introduction of new variants to enhance visibility during key holidays [6] - The company is implementing volume control and price standardization across online channels to maintain profitability at retail points [6] Group 5: Youth-Oriented Products - The company is exploring the launch of youth-oriented products, including fruit-flavored options and a low-alcohol lemon liquor, with plans for a barley champagne in the future [7]

Company - The stock prices of liquor companies surged on the 20th, with Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit, Jinzhongzi Liquor rising over 8%, and other brands like Yingjia Gongjiu, Yanjing Beer, and Gujing Gongjiu increasing by over 4% [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor announced a change in its business scope from "production of liquor and other alcoholic beverages" to "production of alcoholic products" to comply with the new regulatory requirements, emphasizing that there is no change in its main business focus on liquor [1] Industry - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment period, facing short-term pressure from policies and pricing, leading to a gloomy sentiment in the sector [1] - The implementation of "prohibition orders" in multiple regions since May has heightened market concerns regarding liquor, with strict enforcement of regulations affecting time and scenarios for consumption [1] - Long-term, new policies are expected to drive the transformation and upgrading of the liquor industry, focusing on quality innovation to meet diverse consumer demands [2] - The liquor sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with low expectations for fundamentals, making it more attractive for investment after a rapid decline [2] - The competition within the liquor industry is intensifying, with a trend towards concentration, where leading companies are expanding their market share through brand barriers and strategic upgrades [2]

Group 1 - The event "2025 International Wine Culture Salon and Fenjiu Leading Twelve Aroma Embassy Tour" aims to enhance Sino-Albanian friendship through cultural exchange via fine wine and food [3][5] - The first event took place at the Thai Embassy in China, receiving positive feedback for exploring the fusion of Thai cuisine and Chinese Baijiu [3] - The event at the Albanian Embassy further solidifies the friendship between China and Albania, promoting trade cooperation in consumer goods [3][5] Group 2 - Albanian Ambassador Riza Poda highlighted the unique flavor of Rakija, a traditional Albanian spirit, and expressed hopes for deepening ties with China through this event [3][5] - Fenjiu, a representative of Chinese traditional liquor, has gained international recognition since winning a gold medal at the 1915 Panama International Exposition, now exported to over 70 countries [5] - The tasting session introduced the twelve aroma types of Chinese Baijiu, allowing guests to experience the rich flavors and cultural exchange between Chinese and Albanian spirits [7]

Core Viewpoint - Baijun Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, while executive compensation saw an increase, raising questions about management practices and performance alignment [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of approximately 3.048 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 719 million yuan, down 11.15% compared to the previous year [3]. Executive Compensation - Executive compensation for 2024 was notably high, with Vice President Li Yongfeng earning 1.697 million yuan, surpassing other executives [3]. - Other vice presidents, Ma Liang and Lin Liying, received salaries of 1.645 million yuan and 1.56 million yuan, respectively [3]. - Chairman Liu Xiaodong's salary was reported at 1.38 million yuan, while the board secretary Wang Chen earned 131,500 yuan [3]. Management Background - Li Yongfeng, born in 1973 and holding a Master's degree in Business Administration, has a relevant background in the company's core business [3]. - He worked at Shanghai Baijun Investment Holding Group from 2016 to September 2021, serving as the General Manager of the Flavor Division [3]. - Li was promoted to Vice President in September 2024, raising questions about whether his reported salary reflects the full year or only the period after his promotion [3]. Shareholding Information - Despite Li Yongfeng's high salary, he holds only 28,000 shares, significantly lower than Lin Liying's 3.768 million shares [3].