1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints provided in the given text 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on May 29, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferro - natural block is 5250 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5320 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 80 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 is 5300 yuan, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 is 5250 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 is 5900 yuan, with no daily or weekly change [2]. - For silicon manganese on May 29, 2025, the factory - ex price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5550 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30 yuan; the factory - ex price of Ningxia 6517 is 5400 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan; the factory - ex price of Guangxi 6517 is 5550 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the factory - ex price of Guizhou 6517 is 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 80 yuan; the factory - ex price of Yunnan 6517 is 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan [2]. Supply - There are long - term data trends of the production of 136 silicon ferro enterprises in China (monthly and weekly, with a capacity proportion of 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferro production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - There are long - term data trends of the production of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Demand - There are long - term data trends of the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. - There are long - term data trends of the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4]. Inventory - There are long - term data trends of the inventory of 60 sample silicon ferro enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), the total number of silicon ferro warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), silicon ferro effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - There are long - term data trends of the total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), silicon manganese effective forecasts (daily), silicon manganese warehouse receipts + effective inventory (daily), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - There are long - term data trends of the electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market mainstream price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the semi - coke production start - up rate in China (weekly), the semi - coke production gross profit in China (daily), the market price of 98% silica in the northwest region of China (daily), and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang (daily) from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - There are long - term data trends of the production cost, the profit of converting to the main contract, and the spot profit of silicon ferro in Ningxia, the export profit of 75 silicon ferro (in RMB), the production cost and the profit of converting to the main contract of silicon ferro in Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - There are long - term data trends of the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to the Steel Union, in yuan/ton), the profit of converting Guangxi silicon manganese to the main contract, and the profit of converting Ningxia silicon manganese to the contract from 2021 - 2025 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe)**: The supply - demand contradiction of SiFe has been significantly alleviated, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. In the short term, the demand side lacks support, but there is a need to be vigilant against supply - demand mismatch situations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5800, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5900 [4][8]. - **Silicon Manganese (SiMn)**: Affected by the news, the volatility of SiMn increased significantly in the last two trading days of this week. In the short term, there is still supply pressure, but there are more news disturbances. With the expectation that future hot metal production will remain at a high level, SiMn will generally maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, lacking the logical support for a trending upward movement. It is recommended to try short - selling at high levels, with the bottom support temporarily at around 5400. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5700 - 6000 [5][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe) Valuation - The main SiFe contract decreased by 3.37% this week, closing at 5512 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and among manufacturers and trading locations [8]. Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent SiFe enterprises was 30.42%, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period. The daily output was 12,700 tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 88,900 tons [8][30]. Cost and Profit - The immediate production costs in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia were 5518 yuan/ton, 5708 yuan/ton, and 5469 yuan/ton respectively. The immediate profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were - 118 yuan/ton and - 119 yuan/ton respectively [8]. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable overall. The operating rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 41.51%, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output was 155,300 tons, a 62,000 - ton increase from the previous period. The lanthanum coke inventory was 412,700 tons, a 98,000 - ton increase from the previous period, and the raw coal inventory was 1,220,500 tons, a 375,000 - ton increase from the previous period [8][51]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiFe in five major steel types was 20,700 tons, a 1.66% increase from the previous week. The non - steel demand, such as for magnesium metal, was stable, but the downstream demand was limited [8]. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of 60 independent SiFe enterprises was 75,100 tons, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [8]. Silicon Manganese (SiMn) Futures and Spot - The main SiMn contract decreased by 2.39% this week, closing at 5718 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading locations [113]. Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent SiMn enterprises was 34.18%, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The daily output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons, and the weekly output was 165,200 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [113][225]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5768 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi it was 6309 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 188 yuan/ton [113]. Manganese Ore Supply - The global manganese ore shipments recovered this week. The future arrivals of manganese ore will remain at a high level. The supply recovery of South32's Australian mine will further increase the global manganese ore supply, and the manganese ore price will still face pressure [5][113]. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of May 16, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.18 million tons, a 232,000 - ton increase from the previous period [113]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiMn in five major steel types was 126,590 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. The daily hot metal output decreased by 11,700 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.44 percentage points, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.43 percentage points [113][246]. Inventory - As of May 22, the national SiMn inventory was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous period [113].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - This week, manganese - silicon futures prices rose due to South African manganese ore policies and union negotiation events but fell as Gemco Mine shipped its first batch of manganese ore since early 2024. Silicon - iron prices were volatile and weak due to the downward shift of raw material cost centers [3][42]. - The supply of silicon - iron decreased month - on - month, with significant production cuts in Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Gansu. The supply of manganese - silicon rebounded slightly month - on - month, and production in major producing areas was relatively stable [3][42]. - Silicon - iron inventory increased month - on - month, with obvious inventory accumulation in Inner Mongolia. Manganese - silicon inventory decreased month - on - ten - days, but Ningxia was still in the inventory accumulation state. The warehouse receipt inventory of both silicons declined from the high level [3][42]. - Blast furnace operation and hot metal production decreased month - on - month and may have peaked and declined. The seasonal performance of the demand side was better than last year [3][42]. - The cost center of silicon - iron continued to move down, while the cost center of manganese - silicon increased slightly, supporting the futures price of manganese - silicon. The cost side may loosen again after the arrival of low - cost manganese ore and Australian ore in June [3][42]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both silicons has tightened marginally recently, and a tight balance may occur at the end of the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the price changes of raw materials, the production rhythm of steel mills, the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, and the implementation of ore - end policies and strike events [4][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the silicon - iron 2507 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 5,512 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 192 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 732,879 lots and an open interest of 209,455 lots, a week - on - week change of - 18,731 lots. The manganese - silicon 2509 contract price rose and then fell, closing at 5,718 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 140 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 5495 lots and an open interest of 435,700 lots, a week - on - week change of 54,626 lots [2][9]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of silicon - iron in major regions fluctuated. The quoted price of 75B silicon - iron in major producing areas was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 100 - 0 yuan/ton. The quoted price range of silicon - manganese in major regions was 5530 - 5880 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese was 5580 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi 6517 silicon - manganese was 5530 yuan/ton [11]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: As of this week, the basis of the silicon - iron 2507 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron spot was - 112 yuan/ton, a change of 178 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the manganese - silicon 2509 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was - 18 yuan/ton, a change of 226 yuan/ton from the previous week [14][15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of this week, the spread between silicon - iron 2407 - 2508 was 62 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between manganese - silicon 2507 - 2508 was - 16 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. - **Spread between the Two Silicons**: As of this week, the spot silicon - iron - manganese - silicon spread in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2507 was - 174 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2509 was - 206 yuan/ton, a change of - 52 yuan/ton from the previous week [17]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the output of silicon - iron was 88,900 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4600 tons, a change rate of - 4.9%. The weekly operating rate was 30.42%, a change of - 0.80 percentage points from the previous week. The output of manganese - silicon was 165,200 tons, a month - on - month change of 2500 tons, a change rate of 1.5%. The weekly operating rate was 34.18%, a change of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week [2][26]. 2.2 Demand - The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 91.32%, a change of - 0.44 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces was 2436,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 11,700 tons [2][30]. 2.3 Inventory - As of May 23, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises in the country was 75,170 tons, a month - on - half - month change of 1400 tons. The inventory of 63 silicon - manganese sample enterprises in the country was 201,100 tons, a month - on - half - month change of - 6000 tons [3][32]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the futures profit of the two silicons weakened month - on - month, while the spot profit rebounded month - on - month. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the silicon - iron main contract decreased to 17.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 147.5 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the manganese - silicon main contract was - 397.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 131 yuan/ton. The spot profit of silicon - iron was - 94.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 44.5 yuan/ton; the spot profit of manganese - silicon was - 415.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 95 yuan/ton [34][35]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material cost of silicon - iron, decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton. The price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore in northern ports rose to 34.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The market price of Gabonese ore in Tianjin Port was 37.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/dry ton degree. The quoted price of Australian lumps rose to 41.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The price of rich manganese slag fell to 960 yuan/ton, the price of metallurgical coke decreased to 1163.7 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke decreased by 55 yuan/ton month - on - month. The prices of manganese - silicon raw materials fluctuated, but the overall cost center increased, while the cost center of silicon - iron weakened relatively [39].

价格 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon - iron and manganese - silicon) is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron showed different trends yesterday, with the manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 rising 3.56% and the silicon - iron main contract SF2507 rising 0.04% compared to the opening price. The supply, inventory, and consumption of five major steel products have changed, and the national power generation installed capacity has increased year - on - year. South Africa has new mineral policies. The prices of silicon - manganese alloy and silicon - iron for Hebei Iron and Steel's May procurement have different changes. Before the news is confirmed, the manganese - silicon price may oscillate, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 closed at 5998 yesterday, a 3.56% increase from the opening price. The silicon - iron main contract SF2507 closed at 5622, a 0.04% increase from the opening price [1] Important News - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a 1.0% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of the end of April, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 0.99 billion kilowatts, a 47.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 0.54 billion kilowatts, an 18.2% increase [1] - On May 20, South Africa's Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy announced that the South African Cabinet officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and decided to solicit public opinions on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025" [1] Market Logic - Regarding manganese - silicon, the news of South Africa's restriction on manganese ore exports spread yesterday. As South Africa's manganese ore imports account for more than half of China's total imports, the manganese - silicon price rose significantly. Hebei Iron and Steel has set the procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy in May at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance), 150 yuan/ton higher than the inquiry price and 100 yuan/ton lower than the April price. The procurement quantity is 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement price of 75B silicon - iron in May is 5800 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than in April, and the quantity is 2135 tons, an increase of 435 tons from April. After the previous shutdown and maintenance, the supply - demand of both silicon products is gradually stabilizing, and the spot market has a strong willingness to support prices [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term upper pressure for manganese - silicon is 6100. Silicon - iron has relatively strong bottom support due to the influence of manganese - silicon. The fundamentals are still considered weak. Currently, the tradable space in terms of news is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

4月以来，锰矿价格持续呈偏弱运行态势，进而导致锰硅成本重心逐步下移。"五一"之后，随着中美经 贸高层会谈取得阶段性进展，商品市场悲观情绪有所缓和，黑色产业链估值开始修复。在此背景下，锰 硅价格也迎来小幅反弹。 成本中枢下移 4月至5月中旬，锰硅成本价格中枢持续下移。数据显示，内蒙古产区锰硅生产成本从6000元/吨降至约 5800元/吨；宁夏产区锰硅生产成本从6030元/吨降至5798元/吨，两大主产区锰硅生产成本降幅均在200 元/吨左右。 当前，锰硅产业正面临严峻的产能过剩困局。一季度行业利润显著扩张后，供给快速超越需求，使行业 基本面持续承压。进入4月，随着产业主动减产持续推进，市场库存水平逐步从高位向中性偏高水平转 化。 数据显示，4月锰硅产量降至81万吨，环比下滑10%。此番产量收缩，原因在于北方产区工厂深陷亏损 困境，单吨亏损约200元，被迫停产检修。 需求端，若计入收储需求，同期需求量约88万吨。库存表现分化明显：产地多家工厂主动累库，等待价 格反弹后出货；贸易商则通过销售仓单，促使中游环节库存被动消化。 展望二季度，锰硅市场或呈供需双弱态势。供应端，鉴于亏损局面延续，预计产量将维持低位运行。需 ...

Group 1 - The successful arrival of 3000 tons of foreign silicon manganese ore at Huade Inland Port marks a breakthrough in the collaborative mechanism among government, banks, and enterprises in the silicon manganese alloy industry in Ulanqab City, initiating a new chapter in direct procurement of raw ore by alloy companies [2][5] - The collaboration between Tiancheng Alloy Co., Ltd. and the Bank of Communications Inner Mongolia Branch has led to the establishment of a standardized cross-border financial service model, resulting in the issuance of 8 international letters of credit, totaling 37,000 tons and $5.6 million (approximately 40 million RMB) in business scale [5][6] Group 2 - The seamless integration of sea and rail transport has reduced overall transportation time by 30% and logistics costs by 20%, while financial institution support has lowered the company's financial costs by 10% [6] - The carbon emissions per container have decreased by 45% compared to traditional road transport, contributing to cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and environmental protection, thus injecting strong momentum into the county's industrial upgrade and green development [6] - Future plans include increasing the proportion of sea-rail intermodal transport for various imported ores and developing efficient logistics demonstration businesses based on the "Belt and Road" initiative, aiming to create an international logistics corridor known as the "Ulanqab Model" [6]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,998.00 | +206.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） 5,622.00 | | +2.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 591,568.00 | +9281.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） 448,600.00 | | +3697.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -62,584.00 | -29696.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） -28,119.00 | | +2837.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 32.00 | -24.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 52.00 | +6.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 114,862.00 | -341.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 18,440.00 | -1079.00↓ | | ...

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 2025 年 5 月 22 日 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5620 | -18 | 111,094 | 212,746 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5534 | -18 | 38,052 | 154,428 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5734 | 12 | 2,939 | 18,178 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5792 | 14 | 193,151 | 395,611 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5400 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65 ...