Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability and a high dividend policy, with a 2024 dividend payout ratio reaching 90.92%, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 6.06% [3][4]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the silicon iron industry, with its circular industrial chain synergy gradually becoming evident [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 989 million yuan, down 1.82% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 6.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.05% [1]. - The company's silicon iron production in the first half of 2025 was 792,800 tons, an increase of 6.85% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 772 yuan, up 51.93% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s caustic soda production was 363,200 tons, with a gross profit per ton of 1,669 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.11% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 18.90% and 22.61% to 2.055 billion yuan and 2.266 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 2.485 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating a projected revenue decline in 2025, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [5][19]. Dividend Policy - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend policy from 2020 to 2024, with total cash dividends amounting to 16.79 billion yuan in 2024 [3].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Ferroalloy Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Drag, Policy Support, Wait-and-See Approach" and dated September 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - News Overview - Multiple banks in Shenzhen announced that starting from September 12, they will no longer distinguish between first - and second - home mortgages, and the specific mortgage rates will be determined based on multiple factors [5] - Eight departments in Henan Province jointly issued measures to support housing consumption, including increasing purchase subsidies and raising housing provident fund loan limits [5] - Three national departments issued a work plan for the power equipment industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 6% for traditional power equipment and other goals [5] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year growth of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [5] - Multiple regions in Jiangxi suspended subsidy activities for consumer goods replacement from September 12 at 24:00 [5] Group 3: Market Review - Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon futures showed small fluctuations last week, spot prices remained flat, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The production of manganese silicon continued to rise while steel production decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand situation is expected to become looser, but with low current inventory, the price trend lacks a clear direction. The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 47.38%, an increase of 0.93% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 30,590 tons, an increase of 185 tons [49] - The report also presented data on manganese silicon's basis, price changes, and related production and demand indicators in different regions [9] Group 4: Market Review - Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon futures showed small fluctuations last week, spot prices rebounded slightly, and the basis changed little. Ferrosilicon production decreased month - on - month, and steel production also decreased. The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 16,150 tons, a decrease of 280 tons [49] Group 5: Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Overview - The report covered aspects such as manganese ore prices, import volume, inventory, profit estimation, production, and demand in the manganese silicon industry chain [22][24][26] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Industry Chain Overview - The report analyzed ferrosilicon profit estimation, production, and demand in the ferrosilicon industry chain [38][41][46] Group 7: Outlook - For manganese silicon, due to high production levels, it is advisable to pay attention to energy prices and industrial policy changes and adopt a wait - and - see approach [49] - For ferrosilicon, its trend depends on energy price changes, and a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On September 12, 2025, for silicon iron, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5250 and 5310 respectively, with no daily change but weekly changes of 50 and 90 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, and Guangxi 6517 were 5680, 5600, and 5680 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 50, and 0, and weekly changes of 0, 100, and 0 [2]. Supply - There are data on the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in China, including monthly production and weekly production with a 95% capacity - occupancy ratio [4]. - Data on the production of silicon manganese in China on a weekly basis are also provided [7]. Inventory - For silicon iron, there are data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis [6]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis, as well as data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them [8]. Cost and Profit - Information on the electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is provided, which affects the production cost of ferroalloys [6]. - There are data on the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [6][8].

Group 1 - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Hongfa Ferroalloy Co., Ltd., will undergo maintenance and repair of its production equipment, with the expected downtime until the end of the current year [2][3] - The subsidiary currently operates four 12,500 KVA semi-closed electric furnaces, producing 80,000 tons of ferrosilicon alloy annually, but the equipment has aged and efficiency has decreased due to severe oxidation and damage [2] - Recent audited financial data for the subsidiary shows a revenue of 546.28 million yuan, accounting for 7.80% of the company's total revenue, and a net loss of 31.46 million yuan, while the unaudited data for the first half of 2025 indicates a revenue of 127.07 million yuan, representing 2.53% of the total, with a net loss of 38.21 million yuan [3] Group 2 - The impact of the maintenance on the company's overall operations is currently uncertain, as the timeline for resuming production is not yet determined [3] - The company assures that normal operations will continue and that the maintenance will not affect its main business [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Hongfa Ferroalloy Co., Ltd., will undergo maintenance on its existing electric furnaces due to aging and inefficiency, with an uncertain timeline for resuming production [1] Company Summary - Xinjiang Hongfa Ferroalloy currently operates four 12,500 KVA semi-closed electric furnaces, producing 80,000 tons of ferrosilicon alloy annually using mixed manganese ore, coke, quartz stone, and electrode paste as raw materials [1] - The existing electric furnaces have been in operation for a long time, leading to severe oxidation and damage to various components, resulting in low operational efficiency [1] - The company plans to stop production after depleting its current raw material inventory, with the maintenance period expected to last until the end of the current year [1] - The timeline for resuming production remains uncertain, and the impact on the company is currently difficult to estimate [1]

西部黄金公告，全资子公司宏发铁合金现有4台12500KVA半密闭式矿热炉，年产8万吨锰硅合金。因设 备老化运转效率较低，同意待消耗完现有库存原料后进入停炉检修，检修期预计至本年度末。宏发铁合 金最近一年经审计的营业收入5.46亿元，净利润-3146.17万元；最近一期未经审计的营业收入1.27亿 元，净利润-3820.91万元。宏发铁合金恢复生产时间尚不确定，对公司影响尚无法准确估计。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-11 市场情绪谨慎，双焦震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：成本支撑下移，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅1.5%。现货方面，产销数据尚可，期货升 水现货。供需与逻辑：当前厂库高位小幅波动，玻璃供需矛盾依旧存在。短期盘面升水持续压制价格，谨慎对待 节前的价格波动，后期关注玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅0.47%。现货方面，采购情绪谨慎，以刚需 成交为主。供需与逻辑：目前纯碱产量维持在高位波动且伴随四季度新增产能落地；纯碱消费存在进一步走弱预 期。叠加目前盘面升水，进一步压制纯碱价格，后期关注新产能投放和下游需求变化。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观政策、玻璃下游需求、纯碱产量和库存变化等。 双硅：产区利润不佳，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日硅锰主力合约收于5854元/吨。现货方面，河钢某大厂9月硅锰首轮询价5800元/吨，市场处于观望 状态。成本端，天津港锰矿市场报价坚挺，半碳酸价格34-34.5元/吨度，南非高铁29.5 ...

仓单 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 品种 项目 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 | 宁夏#72 | 5250 | -30 | 50 | 5550 | 主力合约 | 5628 | 8 | 108 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5310 | 0 | 60 | 5660 | 01合约 | 5588 | 10 | 104 | | | 青海#72 | 5250 | 0 | 0 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5702 | 20 | 90 | | | 陕西#72 | 5250 | -30 | 50 | 5550 | 09合约 | 5464 | 30 | 120 | | | 陕西#75 | 5950 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -78 | -38 | -58 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | | 1-5月差 | -114 | -10 | 14 | | 贸易商价 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon - manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon - manganese**: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - **Silicon - manganese**: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]