Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's ferroalloy exports in October 2025, with a volume of 50,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and an export value of 12.2 million USD, down 30.7% year-on-year [1] Industry Overview - The ferroalloy industry in China is experiencing a downturn in export performance, as indicated by the latest customs data [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move within a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the overall commodity environment on prices. Although the overall inventory of iron ore is still high, there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make a rebound rather than continue to short. The positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth looking forward to [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short term, with a weak supply - demand pattern and limited marginal changes in the real - world situation. The price of polysilicon is affected by factors such as production reduction, inventory, and delivery games, and the instability risk of the near - month contract is relatively high [13][15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand side shows obvious improvement [18][20]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.149%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.59% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased significantly, and the profitability of steel mills was at a low level in the same period of the past three years [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On December 3, the main contract of manganese silicon closed up 0.31% at 5746 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.04% at 5446 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak. Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys also showed a weak trend. There is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.61% (- 55). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57430 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.98% (+ 1115) [12][14]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon production is decreasing, and demand is weak. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the near - month contract is unstable [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1020 yuan/ton, down 1.35% (- 14). The soda ash main contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, down 1.52% (- 18) [17][19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass industry has reduced supply, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light. The soda ash market has a stable price supported by cost and pending orders, but the demand is still weak [18][20].

Group 1: New Energy Industry - The new energy industry in Ulanqab has shown significant growth, with the construction of large wind and solar power bases progressing smoothly. The newly added installed capacity of renewable energy reached 1.94 million kilowatts, with the total installed capacity expected to exceed 20 million kilowatts by the end of the year. Energy storage capacity is projected to reach 3.23 million kilowatts / 1,106 million kilowatt-hours, ranking among the top in the region [1] - The green hydrogen and ammonia production projects are being strategically developed, with Sinopec's 100,000 tons/year wind-solar integrated hydrogen project receiving approval for its photovoltaic power generation component, and other green hydrogen projects accelerating [1] Group 2: Ferroalloy Industry - The ferroalloy industry is undergoing transformation and upgrading, with the establishment of a ferroalloy technology innovation research institute and the implementation of three local standards for ferroalloy products. The region has successfully been approved as a pilot project for digital transformation in manufacturing [1] - Focused on technological upgrades in direct current furnace processes and green hydrogen smelting, 23 green ferroalloy projects are being expedited, adding 2.76 million tons of new capacity, bringing the total capacity to 13.71 million tons, which accounts for 24% of the national total and 70% of the regional total [1] Group 3: Computing Power Industry - The computing power industry is developing robustly, with the establishment of a national green computing power hub and data industry cluster. The first data center green electricity direct connection project has been put into operation, recognized as a national "computing power and electricity coordination typical case" [2] - The computing power scale is expected to exceed 120,000 P this year, with intelligent computing accounting for over 90%, positioning the region among the top in the national computing power hubs and clusters [2] Group 4: New Materials Industry - The new materials industry is steadily advancing, with high-end fluorine-based new materials accounting for 12.9% of the city's chemical industry output value. The total production capacity of negative electrode materials has reached 670,000 tons, representing 84% of the regional total and 17% of the national total [2] - The market share of San Da Optoelectronics' main product, nitrogen trifluoride, remains among the top three nationally, while the production capacity of chemical foils accounts for 90% of the regional total and 24% of the national total [2] Group 5: Potato Industry - The potato industry has improved in both quality and efficiency, focusing on systematic breeding, standardized planting, refined processing, and brand marketing. The "Mengwu Potato Series" has 64 proprietary varieties, with an annual production capacity of 2 billion micro potatoes and a processing capacity of 1 million tons [3] - The region has seen continuous growth in grain production for three consecutive years, with increases in area, total yield, and yield per unit. The breeding and promotion of the new "Dumeng Sheep" variety has won the first prize in the regional science and technology progress award, marking a breakthrough [3] Group 6: Cultural and Tourism Industry - The cultural and tourism industry is experiencing integrated development, with events like the "Grassland Tour" Naadam and upgrades to scenic spots such as Ulanqab Night and Ulanhada Volcano being actively organized [3] - The region has hosted various sports events, significantly boosting the event economy. So far, the city has received 23.22 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, with total tourist spending reaching 27.58 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on December 4, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block was 5100, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5170, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The main contract price of silicon iron was 5446, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly increase of 30. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5530, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30; the main contract price was 5746, with a daily increase of 18 and a weekly increase of 116 [2] Supply - The monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented in the data, and the weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises (with a capacity share of 95%) is also shown. The monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [4][6] Demand - The monthly production forecast of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the monthly production of metal magnesium in China, the weekly operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China (with a sample share of 60.45%), the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the monthly procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group, and the monthly demand for silicon manganese in China are provided [4][7] Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is presented. The daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon iron on CZCE from 2021 - 2025 are also shown. The monthly average available inventory days of silicon iron in East China, South China, and the North region from 2021 - 2025 are provided. For silicon manganese, the daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory on CZCE from 2021 - 2025, the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days of silicon manganese in China are presented [5][7] Cost and Profit - The electricity prices of iron alloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The market price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi, the operating rate and production profit of blue charcoal in China, the market price of 98% silica in the Northwest region, and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang are presented. The production cost, profit converted to the main contract, and spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are shown. For silicon manganese, the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region, and the profit converted to the main contract in Guangxi and Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5][7]

Group 1: Core View - Manganese silicon prices rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the supply contraction at a high level is limited while the demand continues to weaken. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve, the industrial contradictions accumulate, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. The upward driving force of manganese silicon prices is not strong, and once the market logic returns to the industrial side, the prices will be under pressure again. A breakthrough requires the introduction of industrial clearance policies [5][58] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Since December, the futures and spot prices of manganese silicon have rebounded from a low level, especially the futures price. As of December 3, the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract reached a maximum of 5,786 yuan/ton, up nearly 200 yuan from the previous low. The spot price also increased, with a range of 20 - 90 yuan in the mainstream areas, and the basis weakened again [9] - The recent rapid rise in manganese silicon prices is a catch - up increase, mainly due to the low - level rebound of steel futures prices boosting the sentiment in the ferrous metal market. Since mid - November, the rebar futures price has been rising, and the 2601 contract has been relatively strong, with a cumulative increase of over 130 yuan from the low level [12] Group 3: Supply Situation - Manganese silicon production decreased in November 2025. The output was 848,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66,900 tons or 7.31%, but still higher than the same period last year. Most regions saw a decline in production, with Yunnan having the largest reduction [17] - As of the week of November 28, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 38.09%, and the daily output was 27,825 tons, down 4.90% and 1,850 tons respectively from the end of last month. Although the operating rate is significantly lower than last year, the output is similar to the same period last year [19] - The factory inventory of manganese silicon has been rising at a high level. As of the week of November 28, the total factory inventory was 368,000 tons, an increase of 53,500 tons from the end of last month, hitting a new high. All regions saw inventory accumulation, with the main production areas having the largest increase [27] - In 2025, the planned production projects of manganese silicon totaled more than 3.5 million tons. After removing the replacement capacity, the actual new capacity was as high as 6.665 million tons, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [33] Group 4: Demand Situation - Steel mill production weakened, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 81.09% and 87.98% respectively, down 0.66% and 0.63% from the end of last month. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 2.24%, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased by 2.22% [36] - The profitability of steel mills continued to deteriorate. As of the week of November 28, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 35.06%, a continuous decline since mid - August. The demand for raw materials such as manganese silicon was affected [37] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory actively at the end of the year was not strong. The number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in November was 15.84 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 days. Most regions' inventory levels were higher than the same period last year [43] Group 5: Cost Situation - Due to the weak downward trend of manganese silicon prices, the losses of production enterprises increased. As of December 2, the production costs of manganese silicon in the northern and southern regions were 5,838 yuan/ton and 6,208 yuan/ton respectively. The losses per ton in the northern and southern regions were 312 yuan and 678 yuan respectively [46] - The cost support effect is weakening. Coke prices have increased, while port manganese ore prices have been stable. If production enterprises reduce production, the prices of related raw materials will be affected, and the cost will decline, which may drag down the manganese silicon price [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The overall finished steel products are supported by raw material costs, with improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices will fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar is likely between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the potential negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, and the valuation has been repaired. The price will maintain high - level fluctuations. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the accumulation speed of port inventory has slowed down [22]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and pig iron production is continuously decreasing. Coking coal supply and demand have turned into a slight surplus, and short - term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, due to the decline in coking coal cost, the immediate coking profit has been repaired. Subsequently, coke supply is expected to increase and may face inventory accumulation pressure [35]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high self - inventory and weak demand. The cost center of gravity may shift downward, but the supply side maintains a trend of production reduction. The downside space of ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the recent strength of finished steel prices may drive the rebound of ferroalloys, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without trend - based production cuts, the valuation has limited upward flexibility. The rigid demand expectation of soda ash has weakened further. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventory is high, which restricts the price [68]. - **Glass**: In December, the expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines has resurfaced. Near - month contracts will follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot expectation in Hubei. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold - repair and the expectation of further decline in daily melting, the short - term near - end of glass has strengthened, and the spot price has increased, but the sustainability remains to be observed [92]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3137 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3319 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3331 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 32 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 5 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.68 tons, and the port inventory was 15210.12 tons [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads**: On December 3, 2025, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was 162.5 yuan/ton, and that of coke was 179.5 yuan/ton [39]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1580 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [42]. - **Profits**: The immediate coking profit was 55 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 3, 2025, the spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5200 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 14 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 3, 2025, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1233 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan/ton [69]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [69]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1125 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [93]. - **Spot Prices**: The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 37 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [93]. - **Sales and Production**: On November 28, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 162% [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 3, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5100 and 5170 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -30 and 20; the latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5448 and 5410, with daily changes of -18 and -10 and weekly changes of 0 and -14 [2] - For silicon manganese on December 3, 2025, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, and Guizhou 6517 were 5530, 5520, 5550, and 5520 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 10, 0, and 0 and weekly changes of 10, 40, 20, and 20; the latest price of the main contract was 5728, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of 92 [2] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (capacity ratio 95%), and the capacity utilization rates of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4] - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and the procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6] Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the estimated and actual production of Chinese crude steel, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) [4][7] Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory, inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of the two [5] - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), and the average available inventory days in China [7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the market price of blue charcoal, the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia (including folding the main contract and spot profit) and the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy [5] - The cost - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the prices of chemical coke, semi - carbonated manganese blocks, and manganese ore, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (Steel Union caliber) [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. The price is expected to operate within a fluctuating range, and changes in the overall commodity environment should be noted [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. Looking for opportunities to rebound may be more cost - effective than short - selling [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak short - term operation, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. Its price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties [14]. - For polysilicon, the current situation remains weak. There are uncertainties in the delivery game of near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of platform companies [17]. - For glass, the industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to consider shorting at high prices [20]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should still be regarded as bearish before the demand side shows significant improvement [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3133 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3325 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day [1]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar's supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel will affect exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.47% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments were stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The daily average hot - metal output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate was at a low level. Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On December 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5722 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.33% at 5448 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys continued to be weak. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8975 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.86% (- 170). The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable in the short term, and the export of silicon - aluminum alloy decreased significantly [14]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 56315 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.41% (- 1390). The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 3965 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve [17]. Glass - **Price Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1034 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of - 0.19% (- 2). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side has shrunk, but the overall spot market trading atmosphere is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of + 0.60% (+ 7). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [21]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The industry's operating load increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish [22].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, the cost of raw materials supports the prices of finished steel products, and profits are gradually improving. The steel market may anticipate future trends, leading to a slightly upward - trending price movement. The expected price range for rebar is between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil, it is between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption. However, a decline in steel enterprise profitability may trigger negative feedback [3]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, and its valuation has been restored. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction currently, and the accumulation rate of port inventory has slowed down [22]. - For coking coal, the supply change is limited, but due to the pressure on terminal steel mill profits and the continuous reduction of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance has shifted to a slight surplus. Short - term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, the profit of coking enterprises has been restored, and subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to inventory accumulation [35]. - Ferroalloys face high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost may decrease due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, the supply reduction trend limits the downward price space. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the strength of finished steel prices may drive a short - term rebound, ferroalloys are likely to return to their weak fundamentals after the rebound [51]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Without a trend - based production reduction, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The acceleration of glass cold - repair has weakened the rigid demand for soda ash. Although exports remain high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [67]. - In December, there are expectations of glass production line cold - repair, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract will follow the current market situation. Recently, due to the acceleration of cold - repair and the expected decline in daily melting volume, the short - term price of glass has strengthened, but the sustainability is uncertain. High inventory levels during the off - season pose pressure on the spot market [92]. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3208 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3325 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3322 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3338 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3331 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Price Difference**: The 01 contract spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 192 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference in Shanghai was 10 yuan/ton [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 800.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 751.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajas powder was 890 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special powder was 690 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average molten iron production was 234.68 tons, 45 - port cargo clearance volume was 330.58 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3323.2 tons [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread**: On December 2, 2025, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coke was 201 yuan/ton [39]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1580 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 2 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5200 yuan/ton [52]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 158 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5530 yuan/ton [53]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1244 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1307 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1183 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [68]. Glass - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1145 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1195 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1034 yuan/ton [93]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 162%, and in Hubei, it was 160% [94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 2nd, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5722, up 0.07%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5520. Considering macro - factors, the US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, staying below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production continued to decline slightly from a high level, and inventory increased for 9 consecutive weeks. In terms of cost, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 330,000 tons. On the demand side, hot metal production declined seasonally. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 310 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 410 yuan/ton. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile [2]. - On December 2nd, the silicon - iron 2603 contract was reported at 5448, up 0.04%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron was reported at 5200. Macro - wise, as of November 26th, the coal inventory of the national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 2.3 billion tons, with an available days of about 35. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions were mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, and prices declined. The inventory continued to decrease this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 270 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 525 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of Hebei Iron and Steel's 75B silicon - iron in November was 5680 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price: 5724 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; SF (silicon - iron) main contract closing price: 5466 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume: 658,779 hands, down 5617 hands; SF futures contract holding volume: 482,043 hands, up 6290 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume: - 24,616 hands, up 179 hands; Silicon - iron top 20 net holding volume: - 22,000 hands, down 757 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 44 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 0 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 15,851 pieces, up 1093 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 11,316 pieces, down 71 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia and Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5499 yuan/ton, down 16.75 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 266 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; SM main contract basis: - 204 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore (Mn38 block, Tianjin Port): 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Lanthanum charcoal (medium - sized, Shenmu): 890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.263 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 385.09%, up 345.96 percentage points; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 33.41%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 194,775 tons, down 2135 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 107,200 tons, down 1100 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 368,000 tons, up 5000 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 71,830 tons, down 1220 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days): 15.84 days, up 0.14 days; Silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (monthly, days): 15.80 days, up 0.13 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 121,727 tons, up 320 tons; Five major steel types' silicon - iron demand: 19,660 tons, up 117 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel production (monthly): 71.997 million tons, down 1.4931 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On December 1st, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong was lowered. The price of wet - quenched coke was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and that of dry - quenched coke was lowered by 55 yuan/ton [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, staying below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months, with the largest contraction in four months [2]. - Jiang Wei, the deputy secretary of the Party Committee, vice - president and secretary - general of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, stated that the total steel demand has entered a downward period, and the cost pressure is extremely high. Chinese steel and Hebei steel should focus on high - end, green, intelligent and integrated development [2]. - Liaoning released the "14th Five - Year Plan" proposal, which mentioned strengthening the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power and the replacement of scattered coal, and promoting the peak of coal and oil consumption [2].