Group 1 - AI Prime & Cy S.C.A., an Advent International company, has announced the pricing of an accelerated placing of 17.5 million ordinary shares in InPost S.A., representing approximately 3.5% of the company's existing share capital, at a price of EUR 13.25 per share [2][3] - Following the settlement of the placing, Advent International's total ownership interest in InPost S.A. will increase to approximately 6.5%, with settlement expected on July 3, 2025 [3] - The company will not receive any proceeds from this placing [4] Group 2 - Barclays Bank PLC acted as the Sole Global Co-ordinator and Bookrunner for the placing [3] - The remaining shares held by AI Prime will be subject to a 60-day lock-up period from the settlement date, with customary exemptions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral asset allocation stance while focusing on diversification across regions and styles [3]. Core Insights - Increased expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve and de-escalation of geopolitical tensions have created a favorable "Goldilocks" environment for markets, supporting growth pricing across various assets [1][2]. - The report highlights a broad geographical bullish growth repricing, with equities outperforming bonds and cyclicals outperforming defensives [1]. - Consensus EPS revisions have turned less negative recently, with positive revisions noted for the US market, indicating improved expectations for equity fundamentals [2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The report indicates that markets are pricing in a more dovish Fed, with expectations for a rate cut brought forward to September and a reduced terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25% [1][7]. - The labor market data expected this Thursday is deemed critical for sustaining positive momentum, with economists forecasting 85k for non-farm payrolls, below the consensus of +113k [1]. Earnings Outlook - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is highlighted as a key focus, with a relatively low bar for EPS growth set at 4%, down from 12% in Q1, and insights expected on corporate adjustments to increased tariff rates [2]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests that reverse dispersion trades may be attractive as a macro hedge against potential growth deterioration over the summer [2]. - Recommendations include option hedges and specific strategies such as USD HY puts/CDS payers to hedge against stagflationary shocks [6]. Performance Metrics - The report provides forecasts for various asset classes, indicating expected total returns and downside risks for equities and bonds over different time horizons [18]. - The S&P 500 is projected to have a total return of -4.1% over 3 months, with a potential upside of 6.6% over 12 months [18]. Risk Appetite - The report notes a rebound in the Risk Appetite Indicator to 0.3, reflecting increased risk appetite among investors [1][26]. - Implied equity correlations have been falling, indicating expectations of more dispersion in the earnings season and a fading macro risk environment [2][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].

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Core Viewpoint - The passage discusses the passage of the "GENIUS Act" by the U.S. Senate, which aims to regulate stablecoins and reflects a broader financial strategy to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global economy [1][5]. Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to specific assets, primarily fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, providing stability in value [2][3]. - Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies, stablecoins adjust their supply based on market demand and are not fully decentralized, as their issuance and reserve processes are managed by private entities [3][4]. - The majority of stablecoins are dollar-pegged, with over 95% of them based on the U.S. dollar, as the "GENIUS Act" does not recognize gold, silver, or digital assets as collateral [4]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar's global dominance is under threat, prompting the U.S. to explore digital currencies as a means to sustain its hegemony [5][6]. - The U.S. currently holds a significant share of the global stablecoin market, with 95% of domestic stablecoins and 83% of global fiat stablecoins being dollar-based [6]. - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoins must be backed by a 1:1 ratio of U.S. dollar cash reserves, which is expected to further increase the volume of dollar stablecoins [6]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and Stablecoins - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with concerns about the sustainability of this debt level [7]. - Stablecoins are becoming major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, with USDT and USDC holding approximately $170 billion in U.S. debt, surpassing several countries [8]. - Predictions suggest that by 2028, the issuance of stablecoins could reach $2 trillion, creating an additional $1.6 trillion demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which could help absorb new debt issued during Trump's term [8][9]. Group 4: Global Demand for Stablecoins - There is a growing demand for dollar stablecoins in regions with volatile local currencies, as they provide easier access to U.S. dollars [9]. - The "GENIUS Act" stipulates that stablecoin reserves must primarily consist of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, ensuring safety and liquidity [9].

Core Insights - FTI Consulting has appointed Christopher Allen as a Senior Managing Director in the Financial Services practice, focusing on banking and payments [1][4] - Mr. Allen brings over 30 years of experience in financial services, particularly in payment strategy and operations modernization [2][3] - The appointment is part of FTI Consulting's ongoing investment in enhancing client service offerings within the Financial Services practice [4] Company Overview - FTI Consulting is a global expert firm specializing in crisis and transformation, with over 8,100 employees across 33 countries as of March 31, 2025 [5] - The company generated $3.70 billion in revenues during the fiscal year 2024 [5] Industry Trends - The payments sector is experiencing significant changes as financial institutions adopt new technologies to modernize legacy systems, meet regulatory demands, and improve operational resilience [4] - There is a growing demand from consumers, businesses, and governments to reduce friction in the payment value chain and enhance customer experience [4]

Group 1 - The world is undergoing significant changes, and the international financial governance system is facing profound restructuring, with China playing a crucial role as the world's largest trading nation and foreign exchange reserve holder [1] - Accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse is essential for achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and adapting to the contemporary global financial landscape [1] Group 2 - The concept of a financial powerhouse is based on a strong economic foundation, leading global economic strength, technological capability, and comprehensive national power, along with six key financial elements [2] - The six key financial elements include a strong currency, a capable central bank, robust financial institutions, a significant international financial center, effective financial regulation, and a talented financial workforce [2] Group 3 - Building a financial powerhouse requires a strong real economy as its support, as a robust economic foundation ensures the stable operation of the financial system and drives financial innovation and development [3] - Historical examples, such as the UK's industrial revolution and the post-World War II U.S. economic dominance, illustrate how strong economic foundations can enhance a nation's financial credibility and governance [3] Group 4 - Financial development must return to serving the real economy, as the essence of finance is to support economic growth and prevent financial risks [4] - The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the dangers of financial institutions operating outside the fundamentals of the real economy, emphasizing the need for finance to support real economic development [4] Group 5 - High-quality financial services are essential for economic and social development, focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [5] - Financial resources should be allocated precisely to strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing to promote structural adjustment and new economic growth points [5] Group 6 - Developing a global high-efficiency financial market and cultivating internationally competitive financial institutions are core financial elements for building a financial powerhouse [6] - The financial system must address issues of uneven capital allocation and improve financing efficiency to better serve the real economy [7] Group 7 - Steadily promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi is crucial for enhancing China's position in the international monetary system and creating a favorable external environment for building a financial powerhouse [8] - The goal is to increase the use of the Renminbi in cross-border trade and attract international investors to participate in China's financial markets [8] Group 8 - Participating in and leading reforms of the international financial governance system is necessary for transitioning from being a rule taker to a rule maker in the global financial landscape [9] - The need for a more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable financial governance system is emphasized, along with the importance of reforming multilateral financial institutions [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various credit spreads and return forecasts for different segments, indicating a cautious outlook on high-yield (HY) and leveraged loans while favoring investment-grade (IG) credit [5][61][72]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a yield-driven market for global investment-grade credit, with expectations for spreads to remain stable or widen modestly in high-yield and leveraged loan segments due to slower global growth and sticky inflation [5][61][72]. - It highlights the divergence in economic forecasts, with the US and Euro Area experiencing low growth and inflation pressures, while Asia is expected to face wider spreads due to trade risks and high valuations [9][10][81]. - The report suggests a preference for quality over cyclicality in credit investments, indicating that investors may be better compensated for taking duration risk rather than cyclical risk in the current environment [30][32][39]. Summary by Sections Global Credit Outlook - Global investment-grade credit remains attractive due to good yields, with a preference for 5-10 year maturities in the US and 15 years or more in Europe [5][61]. - High-yield spreads are expected to widen modestly, reflecting slower growth and increasing default rates, with a forecast of 3.5% for high-yield defaults [61][72]. Macro Economic Forecasts - The report forecasts US GDP growth at 1.0% for 2025, with core inflation at 3.3%, and no Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year [10][11]. - Euro Area growth is projected at 0.8% with core inflation at 2.2%, while China is expected to grow at 4.0% with minimal inflation [10]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the US, investment-grade credit is expected to see excess returns of 2.1%, while high-yield is forecasted at 3.6% [61]. - European investment-grade credit is projected to have a total return of 2.0% in the base case, with high-yield expected to yield 4.9% [72]. Asia Credit Outlook - Asia's investment-grade spreads are anticipated to widen to 100 basis points, reflecting concerns over weaker growth and tariff uncertainties [81][83]. - The report indicates a preference for non-China investment-grade credit due to expected tariff impacts on China [84][85].