Report Overview - Date: July 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Inventory is marginally decreasing slightly, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Spot trading is light, and it is operating weakly in a volatile manner [2][8] - Industrial Silicon: Upstream supply disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][11] - Polysilicon: Market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upside space should be monitored [2][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data** - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,720 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 69,295 lots, a decrease of 16,863 lots [4] - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,560 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 113,478 lots, a decrease of 32,573 lots [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production after a previous shutdown due to an accident [6] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue shutdown and maintenance from June to July, potentially affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the mining fiscal system bill [7] - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 62,980 yuan, up 560 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 955 lots, a decrease of 17,144 lots [8] - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,780 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 398,387 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots [8] - **Macro and Industry News** - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 61 yuan/ton [8] - Hainan Mining signed a lithium - spodumene off - take agreement [10] - **Trend Intensity** - - 1 [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data** - Industrial Silicon: The Si2509 closing price was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,230,307 lots, a decrease of 147,023 lots [11] - Polysilicon: The PS2508 closing price was 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, a decrease of 159,686 lots [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - Ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers decided to cut production by 30% to break the "involution - style" competition [11][13] - **Trend Intensity** - Industrial Silicon: 1; Polysilicon: 1 [13]

2025年06月30日 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 观点与策略 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,480 | -350 | 2,200 | 560 | 530 | -9,550 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,620 | -15 | 115 | 70 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单持续减少 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单持续性去化，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单未增，关注市场情绪 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 18 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 118,570 | -1,120 | -2,820 | -2,680 | - ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1][4][28][59][91][95] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: When the mine - end logic is marginally dull, the supply elasticity of the smelting end may limit the upside space, and the nickel price may still face the pressure of "de - valuation - de - production" [4] - Stainless Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the pressure on profits from the far - end surplus may ease slightly if production cuts occur as scheduled from June to July [5] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industry remains in an oversupply pattern, and the disk still has downward drivers. It is recommended to short on rallies [33] - Polysilicon: It is also advisable to short on rallies. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation persists, and the spot price still has further downward drivers [34] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [59][61] National Carbon Market - National Carbon Market: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93] Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The short - term support logic at the mine end remains, but the market's concern about the mine end has decreased. The supply elasticity at the smelting end is abundant, and the nickel price may face pressure [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Global visible inventory accumulation is lower than expected, but the overall inventory is high, and there are still many potential supply release expectations in the medium term [4] - **Market News**: Multiple events such as potential changes in Philippine mining policies and the resumption of production in some Indonesian factories have affected the market [9] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is restricted by short - term off - season demand and overseas tariffs [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Stainless steel social inventory has increased week - on - week [7] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Trends**: The disk rebounded slightly, and the spot price remained stable [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in Yunnan, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia continued to resume production, while downstream demand remained on - demand procurement [30][31] Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: The disk fluctuated downward, and the upstream quotation decreased [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The production of silicon materials in June and July may continue to increase, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon did not increase significantly [30][31] Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trends**: The main contract first rose and then fell. The 2507 contract closed at 59940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59800 yuan/ton, down 1120 yuan/ton week - on - week [59] - **Supply and Demand**: The ore price stabilized, and production increased. The terminal market of new energy vehicles and energy storage performed well, but downstream procurement was still cautious [60] - **Inventory**: The total inventory increased, and the inventory of traders increased rapidly. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [60] National Carbon Market - **Price Trends**: The comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, and the trading activity of CCER increased [91] - **Trading Volume**: The weekly total trading volume of the national carbon market increased by 42% week - on - week, and the weekly total trading volume of the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market increased by more than 15 times week - on - week [91] - **Core Views**: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June, and it is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views - Report industry investment ratings are not provided in the content [1][2][4] - Core views: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate due to the game between real - time support and weak expectations; stainless steel prices will range - fluctuate as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts; lithium carbonate prices will run weakly as high production drives continuous inventory accumulation; industrial silicon should be considered from a short - allocation perspective; polysilicon spot is weak with downward drive in the market [2][4][9] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,000 yuan, down 1,790 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 109,748 lots, up 19,784 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract is 12,585 yuan, down 15 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 132,634 lots, down 69,306 lots compared to T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US; on April 27, China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI ferronickel RKEF Phase I project successfully produced ferronickel; an overseas nickel smelter has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80%; the Philippines is discussing a nickel ore export ban bill; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production; the Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract is 60,440 yuan, down 1,240 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 169,708 lots, down 66,489 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract is 60,480 yuan, down 1,260 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 154,540 lots, down 14,192 lots compared to T - 1 [9] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 60,801 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. This week, the lithium carbonate industry inventory is 133,549 tons, up 1,117 tons from last week. In May, China's power battery loading volume was 57.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract is 7,455 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 309,628 lots, down 190,329 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the PS2507 contract is 33,585 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume is 65,591 lots, down 14,270 lots compared to T - 1 [12] Macro and Industry News - Iraq is negotiating with Saudi ACWA Power and UAE Masdar to build solar power plants with a total capacity of 2GW, which will help Iraq achieve its renewable energy goals and reduce fossil fuel imports [12][14] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [14]

2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势，上方空间有限 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动 | 6 | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 12 日 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,790 | 400 | -800 | 1,840 | -4, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].

2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,710 | 510 | 1,610 | -70 | -920 | -6,840 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,640 | -4 ...