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新能源及有色金属日报:镍价振荡小幅上涨,现货成交转淡-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. Due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, price increases lack momentum. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range with a slight upward bias in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,630 yuan/ton and closed at 120,910 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84,818 lots, and the open interest was 90,543 lots. Philippine mines are in the shipping stage, while domestic iron plants are reducing production loads and being cautious in raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (first phase) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium remained flat. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 500 yuan/ton, and the premiums of refined nickel were mostly stable, but spot trading became lighter. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,923 (- 247.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 211,254 (2172) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, trade within the range for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,845 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 79,826 lots, and the open interest was 85,949 lots. The US may impose new tariffs, and China will resume levying VAT on the interest income of certain bonds from August 8, 2025. In the spot market, the futures price oscillated upward, but the spot price changed little. After rigid - demand restocking, market trading declined, and the overall trading was average. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 95 - 295 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 916.0 yuan/nickel point [2]. - **Strategy**: The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3].
影响更多体现在利差层面
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-06 01:01
Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading to notable increases in both stock and commodity markets since July [2] - The GDP growth rate has remained robust, exceeding 5% for three consecutive quarters, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] - The bond market has shown a bearish trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a peak of 1.73%, an increase of 10 basis points from early July [1] Group 2 - The recent meetings have indicated a shift towards more moderate language regarding the "anti-involution" policies, suggesting a reliance on market-driven methods rather than strict regulatory measures [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy that will impose VAT on newly issued bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which aims to correct tax burden discrepancies and enhance fiscal revenue [3] - The impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with the focus shifting back to fundamental economic conditions [4] Group 3 - The economic landscape is characterized by a divergence in performance, with strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate [4] - The central bank has maintained a stable liquidity environment, effectively managing tax-related disruptions in July, and is expected to continue this trend in August [4] - The overall outlook for the bond market remains cautious, lacking strong upward momentum due to stable economic fundamentals and weakened expectations for significant monetary easing [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:钢厂调涨,不锈钢盘面上涨-20250805
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term [3]. - High - nickel ferroalloy is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable. Stainless steel still has cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, there is a lack of upward momentum for prices. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward trend in the near term [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,510 yuan/ton and closed at 120,630 yuan/ton, a 0.54% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 120,522 lots, and the open interest was 95,467 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell rapidly at the opening of the Friday night session, then rebounded after hitting the bottom, and declined slightly after midnight. During the day session, it fell slightly at the opening, then oscillated and recovered, and horizontally oscillated in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day. The US will not adjust the new round of tariffs on multiple countries during the current negotiation. The US President will announce the candidate for the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days. From August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. In the Philippines, mines are mostly in the shipping and delivery stage. Downstream domestic iron plants mostly reduce production loads, and raw material procurement remains cautious. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium of refined nickel mostly remained stable, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,170 (- 204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,865 yuan/ton and closed at 12,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 122,249 lots, and the open interest was 87,475 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel fell slightly at the opening of the night session, then oscillated and rebounded slightly. During the day session, it continuously rose after the opening and oscillated higher in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume and open interest slightly increased compared to the previous trading day. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, and the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, leading to a weakening of the nickel ore market. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars; the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly + 24, unchanged from the previous period, ranging from + 23 - 25. The mainstream quotation of nickel ferroalloy was concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bargaining range of nickel ferroalloy moved up. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, and the futures market quickly rose. Spot prices also increased, but limited by the terminal's willingness to purchase based on rigid demand, only some low - price merchants saw improved sales, and the overall trading situation was average. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 220 to 420 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 913.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
8月8日起恢复征收增值税
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 01:21
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [1] Summary by Category Tax Policy Changes - From August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT [1] - Interest income from bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to be exempt from VAT until the bonds mature, including portions issued after this date [1] Definition of Financial Bonds - Financial bonds are defined as securities issued by financial institutions legally established within the People's Republic of China, which are held by financial institutions and promise to repay principal and interest as agreed [1]
两部门发文:对新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入 8月8日起恢复征收增值税
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-08-03 01:11
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tax Policy Changes - From August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax [1] - Interest income from bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to be exempt from value-added tax until maturity, including portions issued after this date [1] Definition of Financial Bonds - Financial bonds are defined as securities issued by financial institutions legally established in the People's Republic of China, which are held by financial institutions and repay principal and interest as agreed [1]
财政部、税务总局重磅发布,对新发行债券恢复征收增值税
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-02 00:21
Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, while maintaining tax exemption for bonds issued before this date until maturity [1] - In the capital market, the yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with 3-year and longer-term government bond active yields dropping by 1-2 basis points; the overall bond futures market showed mixed results with narrow fluctuations [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 126 billion yuan, net withdrawing 663.3 billion yuan, while the interbank market remained liquid with overnight repurchase rates declining as expected [1] Group 2 - According to New Century Rating, the credit risk situation in the domestic bond market remained stable in the second quarter of 2025, with new defaults and extensions reaching a historical low; the exposure of real estate risks is nearing an end, and the market is stabilizing [2] - The rating agency noted that stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts are marginally improving residents' willingness to purchase homes and take out loans, with several distressed real estate companies proposing debt restructuring plans [1][2] - The financing control of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) remains strict, with the frequency of credit risk events such as non-standard risks and commercial paper defaults decreasing year-on-year [1]
经济日报财经早餐【8月2日星期六】
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 23:53
Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 52% [1] - The marine production value in the first half of the year was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [2] - The software business revenue in the first half of the year reached 70,585 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [2] Group 2 - The number of domestic tourist trips in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 3.285 billion, an increase of 20.6% year-on-year [1] - The textile industry saw an industrial added value growth of 3.1% from January to June [2] - The European Union reported a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.0% for July [3]
财政部:新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入,恢复征收增值税
news flash· 2025-08-01 09:41
Core Points - The Ministry of Finance announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax [1] - Interest income from bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from value-added tax until the bonds mature, even if they are partially issued after August 8, 2025 [1]