智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，主题交易热度持续回升，光通信与创新药主题领涨。当前市 场整体交易热度平稳，主题结构强分化下新催化不断，驱动主题行情加速轮动，科技主题仍是主线，重 视传统板块在重大政策或事件催化下的股价弹性。推荐城市更新/雅下水电/限产稳价/AI新基建。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 主题温度计：主题交易热度持续回升，光通信与创新药主题领涨，光伏与稳定币主题回调。 国务院总理李强出席雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式，并宣布工程正式开工；国务院国资委宣布组建 中国雅江集团有限公司。雅下水电工程正式进入开工建设阶段，将建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2万亿 元。雅鲁藏布江年均径流量大、海拔落差大，水力资源丰富，但中下段地质构造复杂，工程施工难度极 高。超万亿工程总投资有望逐步拉动区域工程、交通、电力等相关产业投资。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均5.45亿元，日均换手率3.35%，6月以来主题交易热度持续回升。热点主题 结构分化，海外云厂商业绩指引乐观叠加黄仁勋来华的积极表态，维持推升AI产业相关主题热度且有 显著资金净流入，近期活跃的创新药主题再度走强；反内卷政策催化密集，但市场强分歧下股价波动加 剧， ...

【行情起爆点：三大引擎共振】 海外链当下与复盘：英伟达等巨头股价点燃市场信心，Capex 验证算力需求， token 正反馈支撑长期发展底层逻辑。本周国内海外算力产业链迎来爆发时 刻，截至周五收盘中际旭创市值突破 2000 亿大关，周涨幅达 24%；新易盛市 值突破 1800 亿，并实现 39%的周涨幅。我们认为，此次行情是多因素共振的 结果：（1）英伟达市值站稳四万亿美元，截至周五收盘已达到 4.2 万亿美元， 进一步提振市场信心。（2）海外四大 CSP 巨头 25 年 Capex 超 3000 亿美元， 且结构性向 AI 倾斜从需求侧印证算力硬件仍保持高景气。（3）token 激增并 提供正反馈为 AI 产业技术提供底层支撑逻辑，至此 AI 叙事逐步得到印证，市 场主线已较为明确。 【关键里程碑：四大认知拐点】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 通信 海外算力复盘与展望：投资升维 AI 技术迈入爆发节奏，四大拐点重塑市场认知。回顾近期进展可以看出，AI 正逐步向多模态迈进，渗透率逐步提升，同时配套硬件设备升级同步加速中。 （1）部分 CSP 厂商在 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Wujiang District in the Yangtze River Delta Ecological Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone is transitioning from "form development" to "functional development," focusing on industrial growth, regional collaboration, and enhancing living conditions to elevate the functionality of the demonstration zone [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - Wujiang has a strong foundation in traditional industries such as silk weaving, optical fiber communication, equipment manufacturing, and electronic information, which are now evolving towards high-end, intelligent, green, and clustered development [1] - In 2024, Wujiang aims to sign 221 projects with investments exceeding 1 billion yuan, totaling 154.33 billion yuan, including 51 projects over 10 billion yuan [1] - The region is positioning itself as a hub for artificial intelligence, focusing on computing power supply, application scenarios, data sharing, and industrial aggregation [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The establishment of the world's first "lighthouse factory" in the optical communication industry has led to a 66% increase in production efficiency, a 21% reduction in manufacturing costs, and a 52% decrease in defect rates through the use of advanced analytics, machine vision, and AI technologies [2] - Wujiang has recognized 2,338 new national technology-based SMEs and 1,654 effective high-tech enterprises, along with 3 national manufacturing champions and 16 "little giant" enterprises [2] Group 3: Environmental Protection - Wujiang is enhancing its ecological governance by implementing a "digital twin" model for water management, including the installation of monitoring stations to ensure precise management of water ecological environments [4] - The region is collaborating with neighboring areas to establish a shared governance model for cross-border rivers and lakes, moving from individual management to collective governance [4]

主营点对点光模块的新易盛近日发布的业绩预报显示，预计实现盈利37亿元至42亿元，同比增长327.7%至385.5%。第二季度实现盈利 21.27亿元至26.27亿元，中值为23.77亿元，同比增长339.4%，环比增长51.1%。 新华财经上海7月18日电（谈瑞、周子涵）本周A股市场，通信行业板块以"五天四阳"合计7.56%的周涨幅领跑所有申万一级行业，其中， 新易盛、中际旭创、仕佳光子涨幅均超20%。 通信板块的此轮行情来自于消息面和基本面的共振催化。 消息面上，英伟达于当地时间7月14日宣称，已经获得美国政府批准，恢复向中国销售"特供版"H20芯片。此外，英伟达CEO黄仁勋还表 示，英伟达准备推出一款基于Blackwell架构且符合美国对华出口规定的新GPU，该GPU将可能用于智能工厂和物流等领域。 此前，美国政府曾于今年4月关税冲突的高点限制H20芯片的对华出售，造成市场恐慌，并压制板块整体估值。 基本面上，业绩层面的改善也凸显了通信板块的投资价值。随着中报业绩预告密集开启，服务器、光模块、铜连接等细分板块上市公司 亮眼业绩获得机构广泛关注。 （文章来源：新华财经） "公司环比增速提高，体现了自身在高速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The company plans to acquire 82.4% of Fokexima's equity through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, which will enhance its control in the MT connector field and strengthen vertical integration and cost control advantages in its MPO core components [5][11] - Fokexima, a leading third-party MT connector supplier in China, has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing by 225% year-on-year to 270 million yuan in 2024, and net profit growing by 339% to 79.94 million yuan [11] - The global MPO fiber optic connector market is expected to grow from 741 million USD in 2024 to 1.592 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - On July 10, 2025, the company announced its intention to acquire 82.3810% of Fokexima's equity from five parties, which will make Fokexima a subsidiary of the company [5] Financial Performance - Fokexima achieved a monthly production capacity of over 10 million MT connectors in 2023 and has become one of the few manufacturers capable of complete domestic substitution [11] - The company's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 372 million yuan, 518 million yuan, and 709 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 472%, 39%, and 37% [11]

最新一轮沪指3500点攻坚战，大致可以分为两个阶段。 第一阶段从 6 月 24 日开始至7月10日，沪指从3300多点一路上行，最终成功站上3500点整数关；第二阶段则是站 上3500点之后，进入反复震荡向上的过程。本轮3500点攻坚战中，热点频繁切换，两个阶段呈现出不同的行情主 线，尤其第一阶段，指数的主要推动力量或许会出乎你的意料。后市一旦沪指向3600点发起攻击，哪些板块又将 脱颖而出？ 沪指冲关3500点，地产链意外领涨 先看第一阶段，领涨行业不是银行、不是券商，不是保险，也不是科技股，你可能想都想不到，竟然是建材、钢 铁、房地产。 | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 2025-06-24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025-07-10 | | | | | [单位] % | | 2 | 882125.WI | 建材II | 11.85 | | 3 | 882126.WI | 钢铁Ⅱ | 10.29 | | ব | 882130.WI | 电气设备 | 9.43 | | 5 | 882136.WI | 房地产II | 9.15 | | 6 | 8 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.6 billion to 4.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57% [1] - The significant increase in sales of high-end optical modules, such as 800G, is driven by the continuous construction of computing power infrastructure and strong capital expenditure from end customers, leading to a notable rise in revenue and net profit [1] - The company confirmed an equity incentive expense of approximately 70 million yuan, which impacted the net profit attributable to shareholders, while non-recurring gains, including government subsidies, increased by about 20 million yuan, positively affecting performance [1] Group 2 - In 2024, the company's operating revenue reached 23.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.64%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.171 billion yuan, up 137.93% [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 5.068 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 138.66% [3] - The chairman and president of the company, Liu Sheng, has a diverse background in research and management, with a history of leadership roles in various technology companies [3]

Core Views - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a structural rally, with a focus on sectors with solid earnings support, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and technology sectors like robotics and CPO [2][11] - The upcoming important meeting is expected to emphasize macroeconomic policy adjustments, with potential increases in funding for infrastructure and support for strategic emerging industries such as AI and semiconductors [3][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices in the A-share market collectively rose, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing stronger performance, while financial stocks weighed on the Shanghai Composite Index [5][11] - The market sentiment remains active, with a total trading volume of 15,394 billion, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,516.83 points, up 0.37% [6] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, driven by supportive policies for innovative drugs and a favorable environment for commercialization, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of 2025 [7][11] - The optical communication module and CPO sectors are also highlighted as having strong growth potential, supported by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades [8][11] - The aerospace and defense sector is expected to remain attractive, with government support for modernization and increased defense budgets, alongside geopolitical tensions that may act as catalysts for growth [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on several key areas for potential investment: 1. Technology innovation sectors such as robotics, AI, and digital economy [4][13] 2. Industries benefiting from de-involution, including renewable energy and new energy vehicles [4][13] 3. Areas related to consumption upgrades and policy benefits, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and smart home devices [4][13] 4. Stocks with expected strong mid-year performance, although the intensity of speculation may decrease as earnings forecasts conclude [4][13]

从宏观角度来看，根据上半年国内经济数据，生产端在出口的支撑下表现超预期，但是投资端、消费端 表现略显疲软，行业发展呈现结构化，与国家补贴相关的行业表现偏强。 短期来看，题材交易机会仍然较多，半导体及国产算力板块利多IM及IC合约。从中长期角度看，货币 政策方向不变，叠加证监会倡导上市公司提高分红比例等政策引导，长期资金连续流入高股息板块，利 好IF及IH合约。 6月以来，伴随着市场情绪的好转及多因素催化，沪指连续突破前高，最高攀至3555.22点，虽近两日有 所回落，但是3500点存在较强支撑。目前股指整体表现偏强，热点题材交替出现，多重因素对行情起到 提振作用。 其一，稳定币板块6月出现了两轮上涨行情。第一轮行情源于市场对2025陆家嘴论坛的预期，叠加5月21 日香港立法会通过《稳定币条例草案》，6月5日"稳定币第一股"Circle在纽交所上市，助推股指小幅上 行。第二轮行情源于国泰君安国际正式获得香港证监会批准，将其现有证券牌照升级为可提供虚拟资产 交易及相关意见服务的综合牌照，成为首家获此全方位虚拟资产交易服务资格的香港中资券商，此消息 助推股指突破年内高点。 目前来看，稳定币的发展势在必行。美国正在推 ...

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes the "lighthouse effect" of the minimum wage system, which can increase residents' income and create a spillover effect for higher income groups, thus promoting income growth for low-income individuals [1][8] - Historical data indicates that during periods of rapid minimum wage increases, the overall labor remuneration share in GDP also rises significantly, with the fastest growth occurring during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, where the average annual increase was around 13% [1][8] - Recent adjustments to minimum wage standards in various regions, such as Fujian and Guangdong, have seen increases ranging from 7.6% to 14.2% [1][8] - The report suggests setting quantitative growth targets for minimum wage similar to those established during the "12th Five-Year Plan" to ensure it grows at a rate above economic growth [1][8] - It advocates for a differentiated minimum wage system that considers industry, occupation, and skill levels to better reflect the intrinsic value differences of various jobs [1][8] Fixed Income - The report discusses the launch of the first batch of Sci-Tech bond ETFs, which is expected to enhance the demand for Sci-Tech bonds and improve market liquidity [2][9] - The issuance of these ETFs is anticipated to attract long-term capital from institutional investors, aligning with policy goals to invigorate investments in the technology innovation sector [2][12] - The report highlights that the underlying bonds in the ETFs are primarily AAA-rated, indicating high credit quality, and the majority of issuers are state-owned enterprises [10][12] Company Analysis Jinlong Automobile (600686) - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25 billion, 26.8 billion, and 28.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9%, 7%, and 7% respectively [4][14] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% year-on-year [4][14] - The report notes that the company has seen a significant increase in export sales, with a 52.4% year-on-year increase in H1 2025 [13][14] Kaile Co., Ltd. (301070) - Kaile is recognized as a leading enterprise in the HVLS fan industry, with a strategic shift towards AI applications expected to drive future revenue growth [5][15] - The company anticipates revenues of 3.73 billion, 4.50 billion, and 5.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 0.42 billion, 0.72 billion, and 1.07 billion yuan respectively [5][15] - The report highlights the company's collaboration with Henan provincial investment groups to expand AI applications in various sectors, including healthcare and governance [5][15] Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) - The company expects a net profit of 36.0 to 44.0 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.6% to 86.6% [6][17] - The demand for AI computing power is driving significant growth in the optical module market, with expectations for continued strong capital expenditure from major cloud service providers [6][17] - The report indicates that Zhongji Xuchuang is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for 800G and 1.6T technologies, with a leading position in the optical module sector [6][17]