Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's exports reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from April's 8.1% growth[2][3] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects, seasonal factors, and a slowdown in global trade demand, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.6[3][4] - High-tech products contributed more significantly to export growth compared to labor-intensive products, with high-tech exports growing by 4.9%[12][14] Import Trends - Imports in May 2025 totaled $212.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth[2][16] - The decline in imports is influenced by weak domestic demand and falling prices of bulk commodities, with significant drops in iron ore (down 12.5%) and coal (down 38.7%) imports[16][18] - High-end manufacturing imports, such as automatic data processing equipment and rubber, showed strong growth, increasing by 47.6% and 40% respectively[16][18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for May 2025 was $103.22 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $96.18 billion[2] Market Outlook - Future export growth is expected to be supported by the release of previously accumulated orders following the Geneva talks, with a focus on diversifying markets in ASEAN, Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council[19][20] - Despite the current resilience in exports, long-term pressures remain due to high tariffs and ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the U.S.[20][24]

Core Insights - Shanghai's foreign trade import and export value reached 1.4 trillion RMB in the first four months of the year, marking a 1% increase year-on-year, with exports valued at 629.02 billion RMB, up 13.8% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Performance - In April, Shanghai's import and export value hit 399.35 billion RMB, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth exceeding 10%, achieving a historical high for the month [1] - Exports in April grew by 17.2% year-on-year, while imports increased by 8.1% [1] Group 2: New Product Categories - The emergence of new productive forces in Shanghai's foreign trade is characterized by four key trends: "Heavy," "Green," "Smart," and "Transform" [1][2] Heavy - Exports of shield machines and petrochemical machinery surged by 8.5 times and 35.3% respectively in the first four months, supporting infrastructure development in Belt and Road Initiative countries [1] Green - Exports of electric vehicles manufactured in Shanghai reached over 26 billion RMB, expanding to 104 countries and regions, with a 11-country increase from the previous year [1] - The export of energy storage batteries achieved a breakthrough of 1.62 billion RMB, marking a new growth area for Shanghai's foreign trade [1] Smart - Exports of CNC machine tools rose to 880 million RMB, reflecting a 31.5% increase [2] - The robotics industry in Shanghai is rapidly developing, with surgical robot exports increasing by 2.3 times, accounting for over 80% of the national total [2] Transform - Labor-intensive product exports reached 60.94 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, including significant increases in furniture, toys, and plastic products [2] - The export of competition and mountain bicycles grew by over 80% as they transitioned from mere transportation tools to sports equipment [2]

Core Insights - Shandong's import and export value reached 1.13 trillion RMB in the first four months of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [1] - Exports totaled 679.18 billion RMB, increasing by 6.2%, while imports amounted to 448.97 billion RMB, growing by 9.7% [1] - Shandong ranked first in growth rate among the top five foreign trade provinces and cities in China [1] Trade Methods - General trade accounted for 738.64 billion RMB, growing by 6%, representing 65.5% of total trade [1] - Bonded logistics trade reached 196.18 billion RMB, increasing by 11.4%, making up 17.4% of total trade [1] - Processing trade totaled 158.64 billion RMB, with a growth of 7.6%, accounting for 14.1% of total trade [1] Trade Entities - Private enterprises in Shandong had an import and export value of 860.42 billion RMB, growing by 8.5%, and represented 76.3% of total trade [1] - Foreign-invested enterprises saw a decline of 1.7%, with a total of 162.15 billion RMB, accounting for 14.4% [1] - State-owned enterprises experienced a growth of 15.9%, totaling 104.88 billion RMB, which is 9.3% of total trade [1] Major Markets - Trade with ASEAN reached 225.59 billion RMB, growing by 3.7% [2] - Trade with the EU totaled 102.96 billion RMB, increasing by 6.6% [2] - Trade with the US was 95.41 billion RMB, growing by 2.6% [2] - Trade with South Korea and Japan also saw growth, with values of 91.44 billion RMB (4.3%) and 55.74 billion RMB (3.8%) respectively [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 718.67 billion RMB, growing by 9.2%, accounting for 63.7% of total trade [2] - Trade with other RCEP member countries totaled 416.71 billion RMB, increasing by 2.6%, representing 36.9% [2] Product Structure - Mechanical and electrical products exports were 327.07 billion RMB, growing by 11.6%, making up 48.2% of total exports [2] - Notable exports included auto parts (46.07 billion RMB, 3.4%), game consoles (18.87 billion RMB, 102.4%), automobiles (17.38 billion RMB, 10.5%), and electrical equipment (16.24 billion RMB, 9.7%) [2] - Labor-intensive products exports totaled 120.67 billion RMB, growing by 3.3%, accounting for 17.8% [2] - Agricultural products exports reached 53.07 billion RMB, increasing by 5.1%, representing 7.8% of total exports [2]

Export Performance - In April, exports showed resilience with a growth rate of 8.1%, surpassing the first quarter's growth of 6.4% and significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.8%[1] - Month-on-month, April exports increased by 0.6%, indicating sustained export momentum despite a surge in March[1] Regional Analysis - Exports to ASEAN, Canada, and Latin America saw significant increases, with exports to ASEAN nearly doubling to 20.8% and to Vietnam reaching 22.5%[2] - Conversely, exports to the United States declined by 21.0%, while exports to Canada and the EU increased by 15.0% and 8.3%, respectively[2] Product Categories - Labor-intensive and consumer electronics exports weakened, with declines in categories such as plastic products (-1.2%), bags (-9.1%), and clothing (-1.2%) indicating a significant impact from tariffs[3] - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained resilience, with integrated circuit exports accelerating by 1.5%[3] Import Trends - Imports showed a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of only 0.2%, an improvement of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Notably, copper imports surged by 48.9%, driven by increased prices due to U.S. tariffs on copper ore[4] Trade Policy Outlook - Short-term exports to the U.S. are expected to recover, but long-term dynamics will depend on ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and tariff policy adjustments[5] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days, creating uncertainty for future export demand[5]