分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《中美互联网厂商 AI 布局对比：模型与 资本开支差距缩小 》 2025-09-15 2. 《恒生科技观点更新》 2025-08-13 3. 《双十一消费向好，淘天用户驱动增长成 效显著》 2023-11-14 长期趋向理性竞争 核心观点 即时零售行业观点更新 互联网电商 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 / 2025.10.09 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -9% 3% 16% 28% 40% 53% 互联网电商 沪深300 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 事件：据国家统计局披露，2025 年 1-5 月餐饮收入保持 5%以上的温和增 长，2025 年 6-7 月全国餐饮收入同比增速分别回落至 0.9%及 1.1%。 ❖ 外卖平台补贴投入对餐饮行业数据造成扰动：我们认为，2025 年 6-7 月全国餐饮收入同比增速放缓并非由于消费降级或居民需求不足，2025 年 1-5 月餐饮收入仍保持 5%以上的温和增长，与社零总额增速大致匹配，2025 年 6-7 月增速大幅放缓或源于短期扰动因 ...

Group 1 - The core of the battle has evolved beyond simple food delivery services to a comprehensive ecological confrontation over "instant retail" dominance [3][15] - Alibaba initiated a massive subsidy campaign with a commitment of 50 billion yuan for its Taobao Flash Sale, leading to intense competition with Meituan and JD [2][5] - Meituan's system faced overload due to a surge in orders, with over 120 million orders recorded in one day, highlighting the scale of the competition [2][5] Group 2 - JD's strategy includes a "Double Hundred Plan" with over 10 billion yuan to support quality merchants, intensifying the competitive landscape [2][3] - High-profile subsidies from all three companies have led to significant financial losses projected for the next 12 months: Alibaba's food delivery business may face losses of up to 41 billion yuan, JD 26 billion yuan, and Meituan 25 billion yuan [2][3] - The market share dynamics are shifting towards a potential three-way split among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, with a projected ratio of 4.5:4.5:1 [5] Group 3 - Regulatory concerns have emerged, with the market regulator urging the three platforms to adhere to e-commerce laws and engage in rational competition [5] - Meituan's CEO expressed concerns about the current order volume being inflated and the need for the industry to return to rationality [5][6] - The competition is characterized by a significant financial commitment, with over 25 billion yuan spent in a single quarter by the three companies [5] Group 4 - The competition extends to the live e-commerce sector, where companies are reflecting on their roles and responsibilities in society [6][8] - The concept of "live commerce for good" is being promoted, emphasizing the need for social responsibility alongside commercial success [8][9] - The evolution of competition in the internet industry is shifting from "traffic distribution" to "data distribution," highlighting the importance of controlling entry points [9][11][13]

本文为节选内容 更多报告，关注公众号：大消费市场调研 即时零售定义为消费者驱动的"供给革命"，核心价值是从"卖产品"向"卖场景"转变。我们将消费者需求按照时间、动机维度划分为四个象限，即时零售渠 道满足消费者"全天候"的消费场景需求，在提供商品（功能、价格）的基础上增加了情感（情绪、精神消费）和体验（便利、个性化）。供给侧的品牌 方、制造商以及平台商通过布局即时零售渠道建立更强的消费者粘性。 • 需求端，生活方式迭代催化酒类即时零售需求。即时零售渠道以18-40岁用为主，该年龄段也是饮酒主力人群，在情绪升维（小酌满足感官需求和放松身 心）、追求效率（为便利性和时效性付费）等生活方式推动下，酒类在即时零售渠道的渗透将持续提升。 • 供给端，平台模式整合资源，自营模式深耕垂类。即时零售供给端主要分为平台和自营两种模式，一方面实体零售"外卖化"为平台提供丰富的上游资 源，一方面互联网头部公司为抢夺到家市场份额将即时零售业务战略升级，如美团创新闪电仓模式，并布局歪马等垂类门店。 • 我们测算2030年酒类即时零售市场规模达600-900亿元，年复合增速10-17%。根据美团闪购，2024年酒类即时零售市场规模360亿 ...

Core Insights - Meituan is leveraging its delivery network to enhance scale effects and rapidly expand its market presence through its instant retail business, which includes Meituan Flash Purchase and Little Elephant Supermarket [1][4] Group 1: Meituan's Instant Retail Business - Meituan Flash Purchase collaborates with various retailers and local businesses to provide fast delivery services for daily necessities, food, and health products, utilizing a lightning warehouse model that allows delivery within 30 minutes [1] - The investment threshold for a lightning warehouse is approximately 250,000 yuan, primarily for inventory costs, with total investment ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 yuan [1] - Little Elephant Supermarket, a self-operated instant retail project, requires an initial investment of around 2 million yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Metrics - As of the end of 2024, Meituan Flash Purchase has expanded to cover 2,800 counties and cities nationwide, with over 30,000 warehouses and an average daily order volume exceeding 10 million, projecting a GTV of 252 billion yuan [4] - Little Elephant Supermarket has opened over 680 warehouses, with a GMV of approximately 39.4 billion yuan for 2024, and a market share nearing 20% in key markets like Shanghai and Beijing [4][5] Group 3: Product and Market Strategy - Meituan plans to expand its product categories, focusing on digital home appliances and collaborating with brands like Apple and Xiaomi, while also diversifying into beauty, pet supplies, and food categories [5] - The average order value for Meituan Flash Purchase is between 70-80 yuan, while Little Elephant Supermarket's average order value ranges from 80-100 yuan [5] Group 4: Competitor Analysis - Dingdong Maicai - Dingdong Maicai, a leading player in the fresh food e-commerce sector, has achieved profitability for nine consecutive quarters by focusing on a "central warehouse + front warehouse" model [6][7] - As of December 2024, Dingdong Maicai operates 1,130 front warehouses, surpassing Meituan's Little Elephant Supermarket, with a GMV of 25.56 billion yuan and a revenue of 23.07 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.34% and 15.5% respectively [7][8] Group 5: Future Development Strategies - Dingdong Maicai is focusing on pre-prepared dishes as a new growth point, having established a complete supply chain for this category and launched various products to meet consumer demands for health and safety [8][9] - The company is also testing offline discount stores, "Dingdong Outlet," in cities like Wuxi and Shanghai to penetrate lower-tier markets [9] Group 6: Competitor Analysis - JD Daojia - JD Daojia, which has evolved into JD Seconds, is expanding its product categories and plans to launch a food delivery service in 2025, while facing challenges from Meituan's efficient delivery network [10][11] - In 2024, JD Daojia reported a net revenue of 3.859 billion yuan, a decline of 41% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased online advertising and marketing service revenues [11] Group 7: Sam's Club - Sam's Club has adopted a "big store + cloud warehouse" model, achieving a 55% online sales ratio, with 70% of its e-commerce orders coming from the "one-hour express delivery" service [12][13] - The company operates over 500 front warehouses, with an average order volume of 1,000 orders per warehouse, and has streamlined its SKU to focus on essential products for middle-class families [13]

国庆出游热度正持续攀升，这个长达八天的国庆假期，与以往大包小包、"负重前行"的旅行方式不同， 人们越来越追求"随用随抛、随用随买"的极简出行。凭借"3公里最快30分钟送达"和"又好又快又便 宜"的优势，京东七鲜正深度融入国庆旅行场景，成为众多游客实现"行李减负"的理想补给站。 除了日常用品，旅途中的"食"更是提升体验的重头戏。从即食即烹美食到佐餐的酒水饮料、休闲零食， 京东七鲜同样以"即时满足"回应游客对美食的期待。除了线上购买，消费者更可在线下门店现场挑选， 享受"即买即烹即食"的鲜活滋味。时下正值大闸蟹消费旺季，今年江苏产区大闸蟹因成熟期更长，品质 与产量实现双提升。京东七鲜的阳澄湖大闸蟹均为48小时内从产地直达门店，消费者可现场挑选，根据 个人口味偏好选择辣炒、清蒸、避风塘等多种加工方式，2.4两起/只的饱满阳澄湖大闸蟹(母蟹)低至39.9 元/只，轻松为旅途增添一抹难忘的时令风味。 出游行李越来越少的过程，也是映照时代变迁与大众心态转变的一扇窗口。京东七鲜在内即时零售行业 丰富的商品供应与确定性的配送服务，助力人们的假期出行变得愈发轻盈、便捷和从容，让每一次出发 都更专注于对美好生活的探索与向往。目前 ...

"为满足无人机夜间配送的安全需要，首先要解决无人机'看得见'的问题。我们近期重点升级了自研无 人机的导航定位能力。在夜晚，无人机可借助城市夜晚建筑灯光和路灯进行有效导航定位。即便光照亮 度弱于夜间应急照明的场景，无人机也能通过传感器的局部定位，在自主飞行过程中完成避障等动作， 并实现厘米级的精准降落。"美团无人机相关负责人表示。 凤凰网科技讯 9月28日，凤凰网科技获悉，美团无人机宣布在深圳多条航线上线夜间配送服务。众所周 知，夜间配送一直是即时零售行业的痛点场景：期间配送人员数量较白天会有明显减少，但需求数量没 有减少。据了解，美团无人机夜间配送服务将先在深圳的公园场景试点，首批覆盖范围包括人才公园、 海风运动公园等市民夜间游玩热点区域，每日20时结束运营。 ...

一单外卖背后的战争 一场始于2025年夏季，由美团、淘宝闪购、京东三大平台掀起的"外卖三国杀"， 早已超越了一餐饭的边界。 这场以数百亿资金为燃料的商战表面看是外卖之争，实质是入口之争，即巨头们对"即时零售"生态入口的生死争夺。 单日2.2亿的订单峰值，将"即时零售"推向了舞台中央。也正式宣告了一个新时代的来临：万物到家不再是愿景，而是正在发生的现实。 在这场喧嚣的战争背后，一个更为深刻且静默的变革正在发生——曾经作为即时零售先锋的"前置仓"模式，其战场格局已彻底改变。它不再是小巨头们凭 借区域深耕便能偏安一隅的蓝海，而是演变为一场资本、技术、供应链与生态的全面较量。 换言之，过去，这里是叮咚买菜、朴朴超市等创业公司挥洒汗水的竞技场；而今，这里已成为美团、阿里、京东等巨头的战略要地。未来，不排除拼多 多、抖音等可能入局。 一个可以预见的事实是，前置仓行业正以前所未有的速度，步入一个由少数平台巨头定义的"寡头时代"。 1 换句话说，前置仓的"寡头时代"已经来临。回顾前置仓在国内的十年之路，更像是一部从狂热到理性，从巨亏到艰难盈利的"求生记"。 2014年底，每日优鲜率先将前置仓模式带入大众视野，成为资本追捧的明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The takeaway from the article is that the recent intense competition in the food delivery industry, characterized by significant financial investments from major players, has not resulted in a clear winner, and the market is now entering a phase of regulatory oversight and strategic realignment [1][25]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The food delivery market has seen over 300 billion yuan invested by major players like JD, Meituan, and Alibaba in a subsidy war, yet no clear winner has emerged from this competition [2][5]. - The competition has led to a shift in market share, with Meituan's market share dropping from over 70% to 65%, while Alibaba's Ele.me has increased its share from approximately 11%-13% to 28% [5][19]. - The intense competition has also resulted in a significant increase in order volumes, with daily orders in the instant retail market rising from 100 million at the beginning of the year to nearly 300 million by August [8][19]. Group 2: Financial Impacts - Despite the increase in order volumes, the financial toll has been severe, with Meituan's net profit plummeting by 89%, JD's by 50.8%, and Alibaba's by 18% [5][21]. - The article highlights that the subsidy strategy has created a dependency on discounts, leading to a situation where many small and medium-sized businesses are struggling to maintain profitability [24][25]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to the competitive landscape, JD has focused on maintaining its logistics advantages and has introduced its own food delivery service, while Meituan is adjusting its commission structure to support merchants [10][22]. - Alibaba is leveraging its existing platforms to integrate food delivery services, aiming to enhance user engagement and drive cross-marketing opportunities [13][22]. - The regulatory environment is shifting, with new guidelines being proposed to ensure fair competition and protect the interests of riders and merchants [1][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of the food delivery market will depend on how well companies can adapt to a post-subsidy environment, focusing on efficiency and ecosystem development rather than aggressive discounting [25][26]. - The potential for growth in the instant retail market is significant, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 3.8 trillion yuan [19].

即时零售的起源和国内前置仓10年 即时零售业务模式由来已久，最早可追溯至互联网泡沫时期1996年成立于美国Webvan。Webvan自建配 送中心，提供生鲜、杂货送货上门服务。后募资近10亿美元，1999年上市后首日估值达到79亿美元。由 于在缺乏订单密度背景下激进扩张，公司于2001年破产倒闭，成为美国创业史上灾难级的失败。 在Webvan的灰烬中诞生出了Instacart与亚马逊当日配送业务。2012 年，Instacart从原来支持Webvan的风 险投资机构中募集得资金。业务模式上，用户线上下单，拣货员前往线下超市采购后配送上门。凭借轻 资产快速扩张，成为国内众多创业者的模仿对象。 Instacart于2023年上市，当前市值 117 亿美金。亚马 逊吸收了部分 Webvan 人才，2007年推出生鲜、杂货配送服务-Amazon Fresh，并于2014年进一步拓展当 日达业务，推出 Prime Now—包括自营前置仓与平台型模式。 在国内，即时零售业务的探索是O2O 热潮的延续，2015 年前后每日优鲜、京东到家、盒马等公司开启 了早期的尝试。模式上分为两类：平台型模式，包括美团闪购、京东到家，饿了 ...

9月19日上午8点，iPhone 17系列正式开售。郑州一位消费者从淘宝闪购下单星宇橙色新机，到签收只用了11分钟。什么概 念？比他自己换衣服、出门、挤进商场还要快！ 在北京，也有人体验了一把飞速收货。早在预售期，这位消费者就通过美团闪购订了一台白色iPhone 17。现货开售后，才等了 十来分钟，骑手就已经送货上门，还享受了500元国补优惠。 以"11分钟送达iPhone"为标志，即时零售市场迎来全面爆发：今年以来，外卖市场日订单从1亿直奔2亿，峰值接近3亿，月活用 户突破5.51亿，同比增长6%。行业增速嗖嗖的，跑得比外卖员的小电驴还猛。 "外卖大战"争议不断 积极变化逐渐显露 不过，从2月平台掀起"外卖大战"以来，争议始终不断，监管部门多次约谈，态度始终审慎而清晰。在三季度例行新闻发布会 上，市场监管总局新闻发言人主动提及外卖大战，明确释放出以下信号：监管不反对竞争、不否定补贴，但坚决反对以牺牲劳动 者权益、扰乱市场秩序为代价的恶性竞争。 在这一框架之下，外卖大战逐步走向理性，并"打"出了一些积极变化。 服务质量也在持续提升。美团新增"现制现炒"信息展示栏，方便消费者选择；淘宝、美团均上线了全新的会员体 ...