投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭期价反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-05 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重 心面临下移。本周四夜盘国内煤炭期货价格小幅上涨，导致甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势， 期价小幅收涨 1.18 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5][7] 2. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Thursday, September 4, 2025 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overall Situation of Different Futures in Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday - **Shanghai Rubber (RU) 2601**: Short - term and medium - term are both in a volatile state, and intraday is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR) 2511**: Short - term and medium - term are both in a volatile state, and intraday is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] 3.2. Price and Market Movement of Shanghai Rubber (RU) - On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a weak and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.91% to 15,790 yuan/ton. Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the improvement of macro factors, the actual supply output in Southeast Asian producing areas decreased slightly year - on - year, and the demand was supported by the better - than - expected performance of the domestic auto market and tire exports. However, due to the collective weakness of domestic energy and chemical commodities on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Thursday [5] 3.3. Price and Market Movement of Synthetic Rubber (BR) - On Wednesday night, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.43% to 11,720 yuan/ton. The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Although the industrial factors are weak, the macro sentiment has improved with the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Due to the collective weakness of domestic energy and chemical commodities on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that short - term market sentiment is cautious, funds leave the market, and the futures price is difficult to have a trend fluctuation. The expected supply gap may be falsified, and the trading logic switches to the weaker reality [6][8]. - For palm oil (P) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". After the sharp fall of palm oil after a sharp rise, although the inventory pressure is not large due to limited production growth and strong exports in Southeast Asia, recent protests in Indonesia and the spill - over effect of international oil prices still affect the futures price, and short - term funds do not stay, so the price will mainly fluctuate widely [7][9]. - For soybean oil 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", and the view reference is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Logic Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [8]. Soybean Oil - **Logic Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Palm Oil - **Logic Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious. With the market sentiment about to turn, there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. The short - term price of soybean meal futures has turned to a volatile state. The price of palm oil futures has stopped falling and rebounded as international oil prices have stabilized, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support the price. [6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US negotiations, which will determine the market's risk pricing for the long - term. The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious, and there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect it. [6][8] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to appear. As international oil prices have stabilized, the price of palm oil futures, the most energy - related oil variety, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support it. Also, factors such as biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand affect it. [7][8][9] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic includes factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [8]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol 2601 will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively. The overall price of methanol is expected to face downward pressure due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.89% to 2349 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday. It is predicted that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are now dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face downward pressure. Additionally, the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors also contribute to the weak trend of methanol [5].

Report Overall Summary - The report focuses on the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures, providing views and core logic for each [1][5][7]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content. Report's Core View - In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to show a weakening trend, with a "weak operation" reference view [1][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Trend Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and weakening, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has a falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked exports, and a slowdown in growth. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals dominate. The 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.03% lower at 15,825 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Trend Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and weakening, with an overall view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The market is based on supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, but supply pressure has slightly increased. The domestic tire industry has a falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked exports, and a slowdown in growth. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals dominate. The 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.55% lower at 11,790 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Monday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. Summary by Relevant Contents Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.50% to 15,800 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.59% to 11,820 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - All three varieties (soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil) are expected to be "weakly volatile" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, according to the reference views [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations affects US soybean export prospects. The pattern of weak reality and strong expectation in the domestic market remains unchanged. Short - term soybean futures prices are highly repetitive at high levels. As market sentiment weakens again, both domestic and foreign soybean futures prices decline, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures prices. Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand also play roles [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market focuses on raw material soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy expectations, and the resolution of domestic inventory pressure. Affected by the weakening of raw material soybean prices, the cost support for soybean oil futures prices weakens. US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are also influencing factors [6][7][8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: International oil price fluctuations have a continuous spill - over effect on the palm oil market. As the most energy - related oil variety, palm oil futures prices are significantly affected. Although the positive trend of the palm oil industry chain remains unchanged, short - term capital outflows intensify price fluctuations. Factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also impact the price [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures markets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the dominance of bearish fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The time - period definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month, and the concepts of "volatilely strong/weak" only apply to intraday views [1][4]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is volatilely weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is volatilely strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.06% lower at 15,965 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.71% lower at 11,895 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad is large, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to decline. Affected by the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and other factors, the methanol 2601 contract on the domestic futures market maintained an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price closing 1.24% lower at 2383 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, and the reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that bearish factors suppress the price, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weak operation. The core reason is that the weakening of the previous macro - driving force makes the market return to be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price center is facing a downward shift. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol 2601 contract futures price closed 1.24% lower at 2383 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Wednesday [5].