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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250808
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:14
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 8 月 8 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:短期美豆期价承压于 1000 美分整数关口,美豆期价持续承压,同时随着美豆压榨需求的增长, 美豆油依靠生物燃料需求增长保持强势,美豆粕则承压于庞大的产量压力价格持续承压。国内豆类市场的 交易逻辑未变,依然依托远期的供应与成本保持强势。短期豆粕期价内强外弱格局持续。 品种:棕榈油(P) 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接,直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 ...
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250807
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:50
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Despite the large supply pressure and off - season downstream demand, the rebound of domestic coal futures prices offsets the weak fundamentals, and the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol oscillates and stabilizes [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of strong operation. The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Driven by the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.08% to 2395 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250807
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:11
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 8 月 7 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:远期供应风险仍存,后续四季度的采购节奏和采购成本仍是主导价格走势的关键变量,短期豆 类期价近弱远强格局持续。同时在市场油粕套利资金的压制下,油粕跷跷板效应持续,短期豆类期价有望 延续震荡偏强走势。 品种:豆油(Y) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接,直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 ...
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250805
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:18
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a short - term and mid - term oscillation, and an intraday oscillation on the weaker side [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content a. Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Mid - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating and weaker trend, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] b. Core Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. This weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] c. Market Performance - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillating and weaker trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.21% to 2379 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Tuesday this week, the contract may maintain an oscillating and weaker trend [5]
宝城期货原油早报-20250804
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, and the intraday view is specifically volatile and weak [1][5]. - The geopolitical risk premium increase was the main driver for the recent oil price rebound, but after the digestion of previous positive factors, the contract 2509 closed significantly lower by 2.86% to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price Movement and Logic - Geopolitical risks, such as the Trump administration's tough stance on Russia and potential energy trade restrictions, along with OPEC+ maintaining the September production increase plan but with actual supply growth possibly falling short of expectations, and summer demand peak and tight inventory, were the reasons for the previous oil price rebound [5]. - After the digestion of previous positive factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 2.86% lower to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to be volatile and weak on Monday [5].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250801
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:17
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both沪胶 2509 and合成胶 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly" and a mid - term view of "oscillating strongly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time period definitions: short - term is within one week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1]. - For calculating price changes, for products with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise [2][3]. 3.2沪胶(RU) - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic沪胶 futures 2509 contract closed 1.26% lower at 14,535 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [5]. 3.3合成胶(BR) - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic合成胶 futures 2509 contract closed 0.60% lower at 11,510 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250801
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:12
策略参考 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 8 月 1 日) 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏弱 核心逻辑:由于中美谈判结果不及预期,美豆出口前景悲观,美豆期价跌破 1000 美分/蒲式耳整数关口。 国内远期采购缺口对市场情绪的推动有所减弱,短期豆粕期价或维持震荡偏弱运行,整体走势较外盘表现 相对抗跌。 品种:棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接,直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 ...
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶(RU)**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶(BR)**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement and View** - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and strong, and the reference view is to run strongly [1] - On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed up 1.03% to 2442 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic** - This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. After a day - and - a - half negotiation, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were carried out on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. The macro - sentiment will improve, and under the support of a bullish atmosphere, the methanol futures may show an oscillating and strong trend [5]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of agricultural products in the commodity futures market vary. Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply and demand, and trade agreements [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The futures price of soybean meal is affected by market sentiment, fund position - changing, and oil - meal arbitrage. Future supply expectations are influenced by Sino - US negotiation results, and short - term soybean futures prices will mainly oscillate. It is also affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Market sentiment is boosted by news of domestic soybean oil exports. The active oil - meal arbitrage funds drive the rebound of oils and fats. It is also affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7][8]. 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia has increased the optimistic expectations for palm oil demand. It is also affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][9].