Core Viewpoint - Valuation modeling is an essential skill in the financial industry, applicable across various fields such as primary equity, private placements, and secondary markets like IPOs and mergers and acquisitions [1] Group 1: Issues in Current Valuation Modeling - The existing valuation modeling systems in the market face several practical issues, including: - Logical issues where data presentation is overly complex, making it difficult for company leaders to understand [2] - Problems with the selection and combination of valuation methods, leading to significantly different results from methods like DCF, PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, and others [2] - Deficiencies in assumptions used in DCF calculations, often based on arbitrary reasoning rather than solid evidence [2] Group 2: Training Program Details - A training program titled "DCF Cash Flow Discounting - Rapid Skill Building Guide" will be held on July 19-20, 2025, in Shanghai, organized by Wutong Classroom in collaboration with M&A Academy [2] - The program aims to address the key challenges affecting valuation judgment and decision-making communication [2] Group 3: Instructors' Background - The instructors have extensive experience in industry research and investment, covering various sectors: - Instructor Liu has 10 years of industry research and investment experience, specializing in cash flow discount valuation modeling [7] - Instructor Yu is familiar with valuation methods for innovative drugs and vaccines, having provided training for multiple institutions [7] - Instructor Xue has experience in cyclical and consumer industries, focusing on profit estimation and price-volume decomposition [8] Group 4: Course Structure and Content - The course will cover several modules, including: - Valuation issues and frameworks, including valuation laws and profit forecasting [13][14] - Practical exercises in DCF valuation modeling, including the underlying principles and preparation for modeling [15][18] - Building revenue forecasting tables and case studies using various methods such as market share and comprehensive methods [21][22] - Special valuation methods like EV/EBITDA and NAV, along with practical issues in valuation [24][22] Group 5: Course Outcomes - Participants will gain skills in tracking economic conditions, understanding capital market information pricing mechanisms, and applying safety margin thinking in valuation [28]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has experienced a historic recovery, rising over 20% in two months, a rare occurrence in the past 60 years [1] - Despite the impressive performance of the U.S. stock market, there is a lack of investor enthusiasm, attributed to a group of persistent pessimists, particularly among Democratic investors [1][2] - The Ned Davis Research team analyzed investor sentiment data, noting that the "Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Index" only reached 62.2 after a 20.5% increase, well below the typical threshold of 70 for such rallies [1] Group 2 - The market began with extreme pessimism, and a significant amount of negative sentiment remains, as indicated by various sentiment surveys [2] - A striking statistic from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that only 24.7% of investors were bullish in mid-March, with a slight recovery to 46.8% in May, still below average levels [2] - The report highlights a historical low in sentiment among Democratic investors, with 48% expressing extreme concern about market volatility, compared to only 9% of Republican investors [2] Group 3 - The report suggests that when the pessimistic Democratic investors turn bullish, there could be further upward potential for the market, as historical data indicates an average annual return of 10.8% for the S&P 500 when AAII bullish sentiment is below 59.5% [2] - While Republican investors may exhibit overly optimistic sentiment, caution is advised for the second half of the year, although indicators suggest that the "surrender" of Democratic investors could trigger the next market upcycle [2]

Core Insights - Morningstar was founded in the 1980s by Joe Mansueto to bridge the information gap between ordinary investors and professionals, emphasizing the importance of high-quality data and independent research [1] - Since entering China in 2003, Morningstar has combined global methodologies with local market insights, providing independent research support as the only foreign institution qualified for fund ratings in the country [1] Group 1: Investment Principles - Morningstar adheres to three core investment principles: focusing on investors, maintaining a fundamental analysis approach, and recognizing the importance of fees [2] - The company has conducted three key studies to enhance investor experience: "Fund Fees and Future Success Rates," "Active vs. Passive Weather Vane," and "Investor Return Gap" [2] Group 2: Fund Fees and Future Success Rates Study - The study indicates that fund fees are the most critical predictor of future performance, with lower fees correlating to a higher likelihood of outperforming peers and long-term survival [4] - Both in the U.S. and China, funds with lower fees tend to have better performance and survival rates, while larger fund sizes generally lead to lower fees [4] Group 3: Active vs. Passive Weather Vane Study - This research aims to reveal the probability of active funds outperforming passive funds in different market environments [9] - Over the past decade in the U.S., passive funds have significantly outperformed active funds across various market sectors, while in China, the success rate of active large-cap balanced equity funds has notably declined [10] Group 4: Investor Return Gap Study - The "Investor Return Gap" study explores why actual investor returns often lag behind fund performance, attributing this to factors like poor timing decisions [14] - The research shows significant disparities in return gaps across different asset classes, closely linked to the volatility of those assets, with higher volatility assets generally exhibiting larger return gaps for investors [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy is causing a significant shift in global investment flows, leading to a trend of investing outside the U.S. [1][2] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal spending and economic outlook are prompting investors to recalibrate their strategies, moving away from the U.S. market [1] - Emerging markets are showing upward trends in economic fundamentals, making them increasingly attractive for investment [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is threatening its attractiveness as an investment destination, causing companies to delay investment decisions in the U.S. until the economic and regulatory environment stabilizes [2] - International capital is flowing out of the U.S., with European markets experiencing a surge in investment, as evidenced by an 11% increase in European stock markets compared to an 8.9% decline in U.S. markets [2] - There is a growing interest in Asian markets, particularly China, India, and South Korea, as global investors diversify their portfolios away from the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "BRICS+" alliance is emerging as a counterbalance to the G7, reshaping the global economic landscape and necessitating a thematic and active management investment approach [1][2][8]. Group 1: Transformation of World Order - The global order is shifting from a US-centric model to a more diversified structure, with competition and cooperation between "BRICS+" and the G7 expected to coexist long-term [2]. - The competition for resources, particularly in technology, energy, and commodities, is becoming central to future economic growth, with BRICS countries holding strategic advantages in these areas [3][19]. Group 2: Investment Methodology Reconstruction - The traditional dichotomy of "developed" and "emerging" markets may no longer be applicable, as investment opportunities will focus on growth drivers rather than conventional market classifications [4][12]. - The rise of thematic investing is becoming a new paradigm, where investors should adopt strategies based on core growth drivers and diversify across private and public market securities to capture growth opportunities in a divided world [5][23]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Change - The investment landscape is evolving, with key growth drivers including technology, energy supply, commodities/resources, and productivity advantages [24]. - The nature of these drivers is changing, with increased demand for energy due to new technologies and a shift in economic positions among nations based on their resource endowments [15][17]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The rise of "BRICS+" is prompting a reevaluation of asset management practices, as the evolving alliance and fragmented world order will have profound impacts on investment methodologies and asset classification logic [10][20]. - Economic resilience is becoming a strategic priority for many countries, leading to diversification of industries and a focus on domestic production, which may increase inflation in the short to medium term [22].

放眼当下，全球经济复苏之路崎岖坎坷，地缘政治冲突、贸易保护主义抬头，特朗普关税政策引发国际金融市场大幅震荡等因素相互交织；国内经济长期向 好的基本面未变，但经济结构转型、产业升级等依然带来阶段性挑战。站在时代经济浪潮的关键节点，投资者面临着更大的不确定性，每一次市场的细微波 动，都可能牵一发而动全身。 为了精准把握市场脉搏、顺应经济发展大势，普通投资者对于专业、精准且具前瞻性投资指引的需求愈发迫切。 4月16日，深耕会员服务领域多年的恒友汇，特邀中国银行首席研究员宗良博士，凭借深厚行业经验与敏锐市场洞察，全球首发《2025上半年宏观经济展望 及全球资产配置策略指引》（以下简称《全球指引》）。《全球指引》中详细梳理投资大环境，找到关键变量，提出 "权益（中国A股为主，美股适度参 与）>黄金>债券"为优先级方向的整体配置建议，帮助投资者在资产配置新时代实现资产稳健增长与合理配置。 在迈入成立14年的新阶段，恒友汇将秉持"风险适配"和"长期主义"的原则，站在全球的宏观视野，帮助投资人于变化中寻找确定性，在危机中发 掘新机遇，携手广大投资者穿越周期，实现财富保值增值。 近日，国际金价不断震荡上涨、美债因遭到抛售收益率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar has issued a statement clarifying that a website claiming to be affiliated with it is misleading users and has no connection to the company [1][2]. Group 1: Company Information - Morningstar, Inc. is one of the leading investment research firms globally, providing financial information, analysis, and ratings for various investment products [2]. - Morningstar, Inc. manages and advises on assets totaling approximately $338 billion as of December 31, 2024, and operates in 33 markets worldwide [2]. Group 2: Legal Action - Morningstar has sent a formal legal notice to the hosting service and domain registrar of the misleading website, asserting that it violates Morningstar's intellectual property rights [1]. - The company is taking steps to ensure the illegal website is taken down promptly and is warning users to be cautious of such misleading information [1].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Fund E Account" App by China Securities in April 2024 allows investors to easily query their entire public fund holdings, addressing the issue of fragmented data and cumbersome account management [1][2]. Group 1: Fund E Account Diagnosis - The new account diagnosis feature by Morningstar transforms fragmented queries into a comprehensive asset overview, enabling investors to analyze their current assets and gain deeper investment insights [1][2]. - The service allows investors to view their fund asset distribution across various platforms and helps them review their investment behavior and asset allocation [1][2]. Group 2: Features of Morningstar Account Diagnosis - The account diagnosis service includes three major upgrades: convenient account synchronization, real-time net value updates, and comprehensive holding diagnostics [2][4]. - The service supports file uploads and email synchronization, leveraging Morningstar's extensive fund database for accurate identification of market holdings [2][7]. - Daily updates on net values ensure precise asset valuation and easy tracking of fund asset changes [2][10]. - The service integrates holdings across various channels and penetrates underlying fund holdings to create a detailed asset diagnostic view [2][7]. Group 3: Unique Methodology and Indicators - Morningstar employs a global unified methodology for stock classification, ensuring consistent analysis across different markets [9][10]. - The service provides diverse analysis dimensions, including risk scores, ratings, investment style boxes, and comprehensive fee rates, enhancing the precision of account analysis [10][11]. Group 4: Comprehensive Advisory Services - The account diagnosis is a crucial part of Morningstar's advisory service system, offering a full chain of buy-side advisory support from client understanding to investment planning [11][12]. - Currently, the service is not available to individual users but is accessible to institutional clients and financial advisors [12].

晨星中国区总裁，董事总经理 张雨萌 中国深圳 - 全球独立投资研究机构晨星公司（纳斯达克股票代码：MORN）宣布张雨萌于1月6 日加入公司，担任晨星中国区总裁，董事总经理。张博士常驻深圳，负责晨星在中国的整体战 略和可持续增长的执行，向晨星全球首席财务官迈克尔·霍尔特汇报。 霍尔特表示： "雨萌是一位富有合作精神的强有力的领导者，具备推动我们在中国市场持续发 展的企业家精神。他了解中国机构及个人投资者的需求，将带领我们的团队继续构建以客户为 中心的解决方案，实现我们赋能投资者成功的使命。" 张博士此前担任L l & G l的中国区总裁 拥有近20年的行业经验 曾在英国和中国的 张博士此前担任Legal & General的中国区总裁，拥有近20年的行业经验，曾在英国和中国的 头部资产管理公司工作。他曾在伦敦的Legal & General Investment Management（LGIM）担 任投资组合经理，2013年回到中国，负责Mercer中国的投资和养老金咨询业务。随后，他加 入平安资产管理，领导其解决方案业务，为中国的机构客户提供多资产和资产负债管理 （ALM）解决方案。在回归Legal & Ge ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. as a temporary spending bill approaches its deadline, which could exacerbate market volatility amid existing trade tensions and inflation concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Concerns - The U.S. federal government is facing a potential shutdown as the temporary spending bill, which was passed last year, is set to expire on March 14 [4][7]. - A new temporary funding bill proposed by House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to extend government funding until September 30, but its passage is uncertain due to lack of Democratic support [5][6]. - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over 20 times, with the longest lasting 34 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $3 billion [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Volatility - Recent trade policy fluctuations under President Trump have led to significant sell-offs in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index dropping 3.1% and the Nasdaq down 3.5% in a week [2][9]. - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has surged to its highest level since the end of last year, indicating increased market anxiety [10]. - Analysts predict that market volatility will persist due to uncertainties surrounding economic and trade policies [10]. Group 3: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - Concerns are rising that Trump's tariff policies may further increase inflationary pressures, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being a focal point for investors [11]. - Analysts expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the February CPI, which could trigger further market sell-offs if inflation accelerates [11][12]. - High CPI data could undermine expectations for Federal Reserve easing, raising fears of "stagflation," where economic growth slows while inflation rises [12].