Core Viewpoint - The upcoming two weeks will be critical for the continuation of the global bull market, with key U.S. economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2][4] Economic Data Releases - The monthly non-farm payroll report will be released on September 5, with economists expecting an addition of approximately 75,000 jobs [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published on September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's policy decision and economic forecasts on September 17 [5][6] Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index recently reached a historical high of 6501.58 points, with a year-to-date increase of 9.8% and a 30% rise since the low on April 8 [2][5] - Despite the market reaching new highs, there is a notable lack of volatility, with the VIX index only breaching the 20-point level once since late June [2][7] Valuation Concerns - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 is at 22 times, making it one of the most expensive periods since the internet bubble and the post-COVID tech stock surge [2][7] - Investors are increasingly worried about the overvaluation of the S&P 500 as it continues to rise [7][8] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among Wall Street bulls regarding the unusual calm in the market, which historically precedes spikes in volatility [7] - A recent survey indicates that investor optimism towards U.S. stocks has reached its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming two weeks will be critical for the continuation of the global bull market, with significant U.S. economic data releases including non-farm payrolls, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1][2] Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - The key events will start with the monthly non-farm payroll report on September 5, where economists expect approximately 75,000 new jobs to be added [3] - Following this, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on September 11, and the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision and economic forecasts on September 17 [5] - The market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during this meeting [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Concerns - The S&P 500 index recently recorded its smallest monthly gain since July 2024 and is approaching historically weak performance in September [1] - Despite the market reaching new highs, the unusual calmness is raising concerns among Wall Street optimists, as the VIX index has only breached the 20-point level once since late June [1][9] - The S&P 500 index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, making it one of the most expensive periods since the internet bubble peak and the post-COVID tech stock surge [1][13] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among Wall Street bulls regarding the market's unusual calmness in the face of seasonal weakness [10] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has averaged a decline of 0.7% in September, with four out of the last five years experiencing monthly declines [11] - Fundstrat Global Advisors' Thomas Lee suggests that investors should remain cautious in September, predicting a potential 5% to 10% decline in the S&P 500 index before a rebound towards 6,800 to 7,000 points by year-end [12] Group 4: Valuation and Cash Positioning - Investors are increasingly worried about the overvaluation of the S&P 500 index, with a current P/E ratio of 22 [13] - Financial experts suggest holding cash in anticipation of a market correction, despite the underlying support for the market from resilient economic conditions and strong corporate profit growth [14] - According to a recent Bank of America survey, investor optimism towards U.S. equities has reached its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls and inflation reports, may lead to market volatility, with analysts predicting a potential 5%-10% correction in the S&P 500 index due to seasonal weakness and overvaluation concerns [1][2][10]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - The next 14 trading days will see the release of significant economic indicators, starting with the non-farm payroll report on September 5, where economists expect approximately 75,000 new jobs [3][4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's policy decision on September 17, where a 90% probability of a rate cut is currently priced in by the swap market [4][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Concerns - The S&P 500 index recently recorded its smallest monthly gain since July 2024 and is approaching historically weak performance in September, which has averaged a decline of 0.7% over the past 30 years [2][9]. - Despite the S&P 500 reaching a record high of 6501.58 points on August 28, the market is experiencing an unusual calm, with the VIX index showing minimal volatility since late June [2][11]. Group 3: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 stands at 22 times, making it one of the most expensive periods since the dot-com bubble and the post-COVID tech rally [11]. - Investor sentiment towards U.S. equities is at its highest level since February, with cash holdings at a historical low of 3.9%, indicating a strong bullish outlook despite valuation concerns [13].

Group 1 - Spring Airlines issued a statement denying the connection between the normal condensation phenomenon in summer cabins and the sale of blankets, clarifying that the condensation is a common physical reaction that disappears shortly after takeoff [2][3] - JD and Wanda have established a partnership with a total investment of approximately 80.53 billion yuan, focusing on management consulting and information technology consulting [12] - The U.S. Customs intercepted 1.83 million counterfeit LABUBU products this year, significantly contributing to the maintenance of a fair international trade environment [6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve signaled a potential interest rate cut, which could extend the global bull market; the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3,800 points following this news [9] - Meituan addressed user complaints regarding delayed refunds, attributing the issue to information display lag and payment channel anomalies, and has established a dedicated customer service team to assist users [9] - Porsche announced adjustments to its battery business, with its subsidiary Cellforce focusing on battery unit research and development, leading to staff reductions [13] Group 3 - KDP announced the acquisition of JDE Peet's, the parent company of Peet's Coffee, in a cash transaction expected to close in the first half of 2026 [15] - Pinduoduo reported Q2 revenue of 103.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%, while net profit decreased by 4% [18] - Keep achieved revenue of 822 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with an adjusted net profit of 10.35 million yuan, and improved gross margin from 46.0% to 52.2% [19]

Core Viewpoint - The global market appears resilient to economic data and policy uncertainties, driven by liquidity, with expectations of continued bullish trends in Asia due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A major Wall Street bank's chief economist noted a "water buffalo" sign indicating liquidity-driven market behavior [1] - In the U.S., there is a frenzy around AI themes, while the Eurozone benefits from low interest rates and increased defense spending, attracting funds into defense and cyclical stocks [1] Group 2: China Market Insights - In China, a stable economic foundation and policy expectations have led to a flow of household savings into the stock market, with insurance funds investing nearly 1 trillion yuan [1] - The recent trading volume in A-shares has reached over 30 trillion yuan for the second time in history, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated potential adjustments to policy stance based on changes in baseline outlook and risk balance [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, which is expected to inject momentum into Asian markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global equity markets have shown significant recovery and growth since the implementation of the 4.7 tariff policy, with an average increase of 24% post-policy compared to a 14% increase year-to-date, indicating a potential upward trend overcoming tariff-induced volatility [1]. Historical Bull Markets 1. 1991-2000: "New Economy" Driven Internet Bull Market - From early 1991 to March 2000, major global stock markets experienced continuous growth, with the Nasdaq index rising over 500% and significant gains in European and Japanese markets [2]. - The information technology revolution and the rise of "new economy" companies like Microsoft and Intel drove this growth, with the S&P 500's net profit growing at an average of 15% annually from 1995 to 2000 [2][5]. - The bull market ended in 2000 due to the bursting of the internet bubble and subsequent economic recession [5]. 2. 2003-2007: Globalization Dividend and Credit Expansion Bull Market - The global stock market rebounded from March 2003 to October 2007, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 90% and emerging markets seeing gains over 200% [6]. - Economic recovery in the U.S. and China's entry into the WTO fueled demand for commodities, leading to significant growth in resource-rich countries [6]. - The bull market concluded with the 2008 financial crisis, triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent liquidity panic [6]. 3. 2009-2019: Long Bull Market Driven by Quantitative Easing (QE) - The bull market began in 2009, with a gradual recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by strong performance in technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors [9]. - Central banks' QE policies and low interest rates facilitated capital inflow into the stock market, with technology companies driving high profit growth [9]. - The bull market ended unexpectedly due to the global disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [9]. 4. 2022-Present: Economic Recovery and AI - The current market rally has been attributed to post-pandemic economic recovery and the emergence of AI technologies, with nearly 70% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations in recent reports [11]. - The global liquidity environment has improved, with the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes and the European Central Bank expected to lower rates in mid-2024 [13]. - The ongoing bull market is characterized by new industry drivers, a supportive monetary policy environment, and improving earnings and economic growth [13].