Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The era of land finance is officially over, and the next five years will see a shift in wealth towards technology and green innovation, with a target to increase per capita GDP from $13,000 to $20,000 by 2035 [1][3] Group 1: Economic Transition - The focus of economic growth has shifted from investment and real estate to high-quality development, emphasizing self-controlled industrial chains, particularly in chips and artificial intelligence [3][5] - Significant investments are expected in high-end manufacturing, aerospace, and comprehensive transportation networks, indicating a strong capital flow into these sectors [5] Group 2: Emerging Opportunities - The AI sector is moving from concept to practical integration across various industries, while quantum technology is being pushed from laboratories to applications [5] - The domestic market is identified as a new growth area, with sectors like specialty dining, healthcare, and cultural entertainment poised for rapid development, especially in central and rural regions [5][6] Group 3: Policy Support and Market Trends - The "Three Guarantees" policy aims to support employment, consumption, and livelihood, benefiting businesses related to basic living needs, such as community services and affordable consumption [6] - The silver economy is projected to reach ¥30 trillion by 2035, creating a vast industry around elderly care and related services [8] Group 4: Infrastructure and Digital Trade - Urban development will shift from expansion to internal renewal, with over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipeline renovations expected, generating nearly ¥5 trillion in new investment demand [6] - The digital trade sector is expanding, with a current scale exceeding ¥3 trillion and 165 cross-border e-commerce pilot zones, allowing even small companies to engage in global trade [6] Group 5: Regional Development and Financial Market - Key regional developments are focused on the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with specific attention to integrated circuits and biomedicine [10] - Financial market reforms are optimizing channels for long-term funds, enhancing market stability and potentially increasing foreign investment in A-shares [10]

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter [2] - The total economic output in the third quarter was 35.5 trillion yuan, surpassing the projected total for the world's third-largest economy in 2024 [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [3] - Excluding real estate development, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0% [3] - Industrial investment increased by 6.4%, contributing 2.1 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with a slight decrease in September [5] - The per capita disposable income for residents was 32,509 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.1% year-on-year [6] - The growth rate of rural residents' income continued to outpace that of urban residents [6] Policy and Economic Support - The government has implemented supportive macroeconomic policies to stabilize economic performance [8] - New quality productivity is being cultivated, contributing to high-quality development and innovation [7] - Positive indicators, such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rebounding for two consecutive months, suggest accumulating favorable conditions for the economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The national economy is operating smoothly with overall stable employment conditions, supported by enhanced macro policies and employment stabilization measures [1] Group 1: Employment Statistics - The national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to September, with quarterly averages of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 5.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in the first quarter compared to the previous year, while the second and third quarters remained stable [2] - In September, the unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from August, following seasonal adjustments [2] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities averaged 5.1%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the national average, with similar quarterly trends observed [2] Group 2: Employment in Key Sectors - Employment in key service sectors such as transportation, accommodation, and cultural industries improved due to active summer tourism and enhanced employment support policies [3] - The unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers averaged 4.8%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the national urban average, with a slight increase in July due to seasonal factors, followed by a decrease in August and September [3] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group, excluding students, saw a seasonal rise in July and August but significantly decreased in September as graduates secured jobs [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The overall economic operation is stable, with steady progress in transformation and upgrading, although structural employment challenges remain in certain regions and industries [3] - There is a need for continued macro policy adjustments to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, with an emphasis on enhancing employment support measures [3]

Group 1 - The overall urban surveyed unemployment rate in China remained stable at an average of 5.2% from January to September, with slight fluctuations in the third quarter due to seasonal factors [2][3] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities averaged 5.1%, slightly lower than the national level, indicating a relatively stable employment situation in urban areas [2] - The unemployment rate for migrant workers was 4.8%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the national urban average, showing resilience in this demographic [3] Group 2 - Employment in key service sectors such as transportation, accommodation, and cultural industries improved due to increased support for employment policies and active summer tourism [3] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group saw a seasonal increase during July and August but showed a significant recovery in September as graduates secured jobs [3] - The overall economic operation is stable, with steady progress in transformation and upgrading, although structural employment challenges remain in certain regions and industries [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of pollution prevention and control, aiming to achieve annual and "14th Five-Year Plan" goals, and to continuously improve the ecological environment quality in the capital [2][3] - Key tasks include winning the blue sky defense battle, enhancing air pollution control, and promoting the use of new energy vehicles, especially for old vehicles and non-road mobile machinery [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for strict supervision and enforcement in construction sites and road transport to prevent pollution, as well as the protection of water sources and soil environment [2] Group 2 - The fourth quarter is identified as a critical period for achieving annual goals and the "14th Five-Year Plan" completion, with a focus on economic stability and growth [3] - The meeting called for optimizing the business environment, enhancing talent services, and providing policy support to help enterprises overcome difficulties and improve competitiveness [3] - Emphasis was placed on expanding effective investment and planning major projects to play a key role in stabilizing growth [3]

Core Points - The Beijing municipal government held an executive meeting to discuss the progress of the "Beautiful Beijing" initiative and pollution prevention efforts, emphasizing the importance of achieving annual and "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [1][2] Group 1: Pollution Prevention and Environmental Protection - The meeting stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of key tasks to improve the ecological environment quality in the capital, with a focus on winning the "Blue Sky Defense War" and enhancing air pollution control [2] - Specific measures include deepening autumn and winter air pollution prevention, promoting the electrification of small vehicles, old trucks, and non-road mobile machinery, and advancing the creation of green enterprises [2] - The government will enhance supervision of construction sites and road transport, increase nighttime enforcement inspections, and strictly investigate road spillage [2] - Water pollution prevention will be prioritized, with measures to protect water sources and ensure safe drinking water for urban and rural areas [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of managing soil environmental risks and preventing new pollution, while also promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality initiatives [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Business Environment - The fourth quarter is identified as a critical period for achieving annual goals and completing the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stabilizing economic growth [3] - The government aims to optimize the business environment by enhancing talent services, industrial support, and policy backing, while actively addressing enterprises' needs [3] - Specific sectors such as catering, accommodation, exhibitions, construction, and cultural entertainment will receive targeted measures to ensure stable growth [3] - The government plans to expand effective investment by implementing, reserving, and planning major projects to play a key role in stabilizing growth [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, reflecting a slight slowdown in non-manufacturing activities [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index increased to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months [4] - The purchasing volume index rose to 51.6%, indicating improved procurement activities [4] - New orders index reached 49.7%, showing a stabilization in market demand [4] - The export new orders index improved to 47.8%, suggesting a narrowing decline in export demand [4] - The manufacturing purchase price index was 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating mixed price trends across sectors [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction index at 49.3% and the services index at 50.1% [8] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained above 55%, indicating stable optimism among enterprises [8] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with indices above 60%, reflecting active online shopping [8][9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to see continued growth in Q4, driven by macro policies and seasonal demand [5] - Non-manufacturing activities are anticipated to stabilize and recover, supported by year-end effects and holiday demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the People's Bank of China aim to stimulate service consumption through financial and fiscal measures, enhancing the quality of service consumption and promoting economic growth [1][2]. Policy Synergy Effect - Service consumption is a crucial driver of economic growth, especially amid increasing external uncertainties and domestic economic adjustments [2]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented various financial support policies to boost service consumption supply and meet residents' service consumption needs [2]. - A specific initiative includes the establishment of a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan program, which has already seen nearly 60 billion yuan in applications from around 4,000 businesses [2]. Financial Support and Credit Expansion - The People's Bank of China has also set up a 500 billion yuan technology innovation and transformation re-loan program, which has expanded to 800 billion yuan in 2024, supporting projects in key service sectors [3]. - In the first half of the year, this program supported nearly 100 projects in hospitality, education, and tourism, with loan contracts totaling approximately 11.9 billion yuan [3]. - Financial institutions are focusing on enhancing credit supply in key consumption areas, with a reported loan balance of 2.79 trillion yuan in service consumption sectors, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5]. Innovation in Consumption Scenarios - The policies encourage financial institutions to support diverse service consumption scenarios and key project developments, aiming to transform traditional consumption [6][7]. - The integration of financial resources into various consumption scenarios, such as rural e-commerce and cultural tourism, is emphasized to enhance service supply capabilities [7]. Deepening in Niche Markets - Financial institutions are increasing support for niche markets like cultural tourism and sports, which enhances service consumption willingness and capacity [8]. - The "silver economy" is highlighted as a growing sector, with initiatives aimed at promoting elderly care services and related industries [8]. Future Outlook - As income levels rise, the shift from goods consumption to service consumption is expected to create more opportunities for financial institutions [9]. - Continuous policy reinforcement is suggested to guide funding towards essential sectors like elderly care and digital consumption, ensuring high-quality service supply [9].