专题报告 2025-07-09 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 报告要点： 我们认为本轮"反内卷"并非是简单的再来一次"供给侧改革"，其与 2016 年附近的"供给侧 改革"在面临的主要矛盾上存在显著差异。前者主要解决的是无序价格战、不正当竞争、地方 保护主义等问题，为的是"高质量发展"；后者则主要聚焦上游原材料的"过剩产能"问题。 此外，二者在聚焦的产业上也明显不同。前者聚焦光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新 兴行业；后者则着力于钢铁、煤炭等传统的上游行业。 对于黑色板块而言，我们认为当前阶段，"反内卷"情绪的影响大于实质。后续影响是否会出 现实质化，取决于需求端政策的发力情况。但在短期预期难以证伪的情况下，叠加 7 月份宏观 事件的频繁扰动，预计盘面价格波动将加剧，建议谨慎参与。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色金属研究 | 黑色 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议在京召开，会议研究了纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 " ...

近期市场对于"反内卷"的讨论颇多。一方面，有政策引导的原因。2025年7月1日，中央财经委召开第六次 会议，会议指出，"研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"，"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提 升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。同日《求是》发布文章《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》。 另一方面，"反内卷"又契合了市场的某种交易预期。中银国际的报告中提到，当前市场资金充裕，年初以 来科技、消费、红利等几大板块均有所表现，而周期股估值长期低位，对于短期边际利好更容易计价。 就力度而言，温和是共识。 一方面，有民营企业占比较大的原因。申万宏源的报告中提到，可能涉及"内卷式"竞争行业中，仅煤炭开 采、黑色冶炼、有色冶炼行业民营上市公司数量占比低于50%；从营业收入占比来看，汽车制造、金属制 品、电气机械等行业的民营上市公司营收占比超40%。中信证券的报告中也提到，本轮供需失衡的新兴行 业中，计算机、通信、电子、电力设备及新能源、汽车等行业国央企占比较低，分别为25.2%、28.5%、 23.0%、24.4%、21.3%，绝大部分行业内企业均为民营企业，采用行政手段去产能的可行性相对更低。 另一方面，也要兼顾就 ...

Core Insights - Taobao Flash Sale has achieved record-breaking growth, with daily orders exceeding 80 million and over 200 million active users within two months of its launch [1][2] - The platform captured approximately 60% of the new market order growth, indicating a significant shift in the consumer market landscape [1][3] Market Performance - Taobao Flash Sale's daily orders surged from over 40 million at the end of May to over 80 million by early July, contributing to a total market increase from 100 million to 200 million daily orders [1][2] - Non-food orders accounted for over 13 million, showcasing the platform's strong ability to drive traffic and conversion beyond traditional food delivery [2] Consumer Trends - The platform's expansion into various categories has led to significant order growth across multiple sectors, with categories like grains and oils increasing by 489% and snacks by 388% [2][3] - The integration of online and offline services has created a new consumption experience, reflecting the evolving consumer demand for multi-dimensional and cross-scenario purchasing [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Taobao Flash Sale's rapid growth is attributed to its alignment with the "big consumption" trend and the integration of resources from various Alibaba businesses, enhancing operational efficiency [3][4] - The platform has announced a 50 billion yuan subsidy to support users and merchants, which has resulted in substantial sales growth for both chain restaurants and small businesses [5] Business Model - The platform's approach to subsidies aims to stimulate consumer demand without forcing merchants into price wars, thereby fostering a healthier competitive environment [5] - The combination of food, retail, and service sectors under the Taobao Flash Sale model reflects a strategic shift towards an ecosystem that meets comprehensive consumer needs [4][5]

当工厂敢讲真话，消费者也开始做选择题。在信息差被打破后，人们不再为某个 Logo 、某句广告 语买单，而是用真金白银的消费，把货真价实的货品送上热销榜首。 导 语 ： 消费降级是假，信息升级才是真。拼多多把商品的真实价格，摊开在阳光下。 一件标价 299 元的防晒衣，成本能有多少？ 答案是：可能不超过 40 块。 "面料 15 到 16 块，辅料 3 块多， 20 多块工价"，在拼多多一家名为科里芙 COSLEAF 官方旗舰店 的品牌工厂里，老板板算了一笔账，自家防晒力不输大牌的防晒衣，成本只有 40 块。 今年夏天，拼多多一堆几十元的防晒衣猛烈出货，销量动辄 10 万 + 甚至 100 万 + 。 拼多多等平台推动下的供给侧变革，正在加速这一趋势。 看穿"贵"的幻觉 消费品行业的真相，往往比表面看起来更魔幻。 东吴证券发布的《万元奢侈品包成本是多少？》曾得出这样一个结论：万元手袋进货成本可能仅百 元。 比如 PRADA 、 COACH 主力价格带约为 20,000 元、 4,500 元，其中有相当一部分由时代集团控股 在广东代工，平均出厂价仅 100-200 元；且时代集团代工的很多产品，其实是由代工厂自己 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 "反内卷"强化供给侧国家治理预期，有 望推动实现更高质量增长 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ "反内卷"旨在治理企业低价无序竞争，引导提升产品品质，推动国家治理预期抬 升再进一步。一些观点认为当前产能利用率偏低的行业更多集中于中下游，"反内 卷"推升价格的作用可能有限，但我们认为，借助"反内卷"一系列措施，政策目 标更侧重质量提升、科技投入、劳动者和中小企业权益呵护，以及地方招商引资模 式优化，化解"内卷式"竞争带来的低效率问题、实现"量增质升"比关注价格本 身更加重要。 ⚫ 价格过度竞争抑制创新活力释放的问题已被重视，自上而下的高规格推动持续在 位，这有望成为各部门、各行动的催化剂。从去年政治局会议、中央经济工作会 议，到今年总书记两会参加地方代表团审议、人民日报 6 月 29 日推出金社平文章 《在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现高质量发展》、中央财经委会议的表态，这一提法 多次高规格地出现，涉及行业也在增加：年初市场监管总局座谈会涉及的行业为新 能源链条（天合光能、晶澳科技、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the subsidy model of platforms like Taobao Flash Purchase aligns with the trend of consumption upgrading, contributing to high-quality economic development and alleviating intense price competition among merchants [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Recovery and Consumer Demand - The key to China's economic recovery lies in boosting domestic demand, particularly expanding consumption [1] - Due to uncertainties in the economic environment, consumer confidence is low, and the upgrading of consumption structure is slow, necessitating new drivers for change [1] Group 2: Platform Subsidy Mechanism - The platform's subsidy model helps alleviate the previous intense "involution" price competition among merchants, reactivating their profit margins [1][3] - By providing substantial subsidies, platforms enable merchants to maintain reasonable profit margins without sacrificing quality for traffic [1][2] Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Market Dynamics - The platform's self-subsidy has significantly activated consumer willingness to spend, especially in new consumption scenarios like food delivery and instant retail [2] - Since May 2025, Taobao Flash Purchase has issued over 50 billion yuan in consumer benefits, leading to a rapid increase in order volume to tens of millions within a month [2] Group 4: Integration of Online and Offline Resources - The subsidy model not only boosts short-term consumption activity but also provides a new path for the integration of e-commerce and service industries [2] - Traditional offline stores collaborating with online platforms have seen their sales double and average order values increase significantly, showcasing effective resource integration [2] Group 5: Policy and Market Interaction - The synergy between platform subsidies and national consumption promotion policies serves as a model for healthy market competition [2][3] - The recent "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" by the central government aligns with the platform subsidy model, creating incremental demand in the consumer market [2] Group 6: Long-term Economic Development - The platform subsidy mechanism effectively curbs past price-cutting competition, allowing merchants and platforms to focus on quality and service improvement [3] - In the long run, the subsidy model aligns with the trend of consumption upgrading and supports high-quality economic development [3]

以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者岭南人鱼机 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 日本消费者的钱包，还有得赚。 来源： 霞光社 作者：岭南人鱼机 "经济上行的美"成为今年上半年的流行词，带着对昨日生机勃勃的浓烈怀旧气息，击中了无数 年轻人的心。 2025年Q1，日本GDP再次出现负增长，这意味着自1989年日本泡沫经济破裂后，经济停滞 的状态已经长达35年之久。期间，日本GDP全球占比从1989年的约15.3% [1] 降至2022年的 4.18%，GDP总量从位居全球第二，先后在2010年、2023年被中国、德国超越，跌至全球第 四。 而耐人寻味的是，在日本经济持续疲软的当下，多家中国新兴电商却开始将目的地看向这 一"失落地"。6月30日，TikTok宣布在日本推出TikTok Shop，购物功能正式上线，允许卖 家进军这一全球第三大电商市场 （据Statista Market Insights数据，日本以1690亿美元的 市场表现排在全球第三） 。此外，Temu、TAO （阿里巴巴旗下） 、京东日本站分别于 2023~2024年期间登陆日本，SHEIN也于2020年末在日本上线。 如果说"经济上行的美"是一种向前奔跑的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that going global is akin to a new era of entrepreneurship, where heavy asset investment must adhere to a long-term perspective [1] Group 1: Historical Context of Chinese Companies Going Global - 28 years ago, Haier established its first overseas factory in the Philippines, marking a milestone for Chinese manufacturing brands [2] - 10 years ago, Hisense acquired Sharp's factory in Mexico for $23.7 million, allowing for local production and significant time savings compared to shipping from China [2] - In the past 7 years, numerous Chinese e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba have begun exploring overseas markets, leading to increased competition and market dynamics [2][3] Group 2: Key Drivers for Supply Chain Expansion - Geopolitical factors and tariffs significantly influence companies' decisions on where to expand internationally [7] - The demand for near-shore delivery has risen, prompting companies to locate closer to their customers to mitigate risks associated with long-distance shipping [7] - Cost considerations remain crucial, with companies seeking to optimize logistics by shipping components for local assembly rather than complete products [7] Group 3: Stages and Criteria for Going Global - Companies typically progress through three stages: product export, brand export, and manufacturing/supply chain export [10] - A threshold of $500 million in annual sales is identified as a benchmark for companies considering supply chain expansion [10] - Smaller companies are advised to start with product or sales export before attempting manufacturing abroad due to higher risks and capital requirements [10] Group 4: Changes in the Global Environment for Manufacturing - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, making it a critical factor in site selection for overseas factories [12] - Labor costs have increased in traditional low-cost regions, impacting the attractiveness of locations like Vietnam and Thailand for new factories [12] - The rising land prices and increased brand recognition of Chinese companies abroad have altered the dynamics of overseas manufacturing [13] Group 5: Challenges and Hidden Costs in Overseas Manufacturing - Companies must prepare for unexpected operational costs, such as security measures and compliance with local labor laws [20] - Low labor costs do not necessarily equate to lower overall costs due to potential inefficiencies and training expenses [21] - The complexity of compliance and legal requirements can lead to additional costs that companies must account for in their budgets [20] Group 6: Strategies for Successful Overseas Expansion - Joint ventures can reduce capital investment and help navigate local market challenges, but they may also dilute decision-making power [32] - Companies are encouraged to establish local partnerships to leverage existing networks and resources, particularly in regions with complex regulatory environments [32] - The article suggests that companies should consider existing facilities rather than building new ones to minimize initial investment risks [31]

近年来，在全球绿色产业竞赛中，中国制造凭借新技术、新产品脱颖而出。尤其以新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏产品为代表的"新三样"叫响全球。 但与此同时，"内卷式"竞争逐渐成为舆论焦点，新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏以及风电、储能等领域 这一问题均受到诟病。 《求是》杂志在7月1日刊文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》，对"内卷式"竞争发出严厉警 告，文章认为，价格战造成社会资源的极大浪费，不可持续的债务可能危及长期增长。 文章在分析内卷表现时指出，一些地方政府为招引企业、培育产业，人为制造政策洼地，违规实施 税费、补贴、用地等不公平非普惠的优惠政策，导致无序竞争，破坏公平竞争秩序。 文章在分析"内卷式"竞争是怎么形成的时指出，由于政府缺位越位等行为时有发生，很大程度上影 响公平竞争市场环境的形成。有的地方政绩考核机制不完善，导致政绩观、发展观错位，为了追求短期 经济增长而搞地方保护、市场分割、恶性比拼招商引资政策等，妨碍资源要素高效流动。此外，由于破 产重整制度不完善，加上有的地方政府行政力量干预，导致一些本该淘汰的落后和过剩产能不能及时退 出，部分企业"活不好、死不了"，影响了产业重组和资源利用效率的提高。 文章指出， ...

报告指出，现代电商平台的角色，已从单纯的交易场所转型为消费者信任 的管理者。尤其在如Shopee Mall这类平台中，消费者可以集中选购官方品牌， 享有15天退货保证与价格保护等服务，大大增强了购物信心。 2025年上半年，泰国消费者购物过程中不仅更节省，而且更理性。他们虽 然花更少时间比价，但对透明度和服务质量要求更高，更容易被"更可靠的选 择"所吸引。这对所有电商平台与线上卖家而言是一场"服务深度"的竞赛，谁 能更快满足理性与情感的双重需求，谁就能赢得长期忠诚度。 调查数据显示，64%的消费者更在意商品品质与商家可信度，而非单纯低 价；超过70%的消费者追求高性价比，强调购物过程中的信任感。这意味着， 购物早已不知是价格战，消费者在下单时会综合考量从产品选择、物流配送到 售后服务的每一个环节，最终决定是否"物有所值"。 特别是在城市人群中，购物速度成为关键因素。当前消费者更倾向于"立 即拥有"，而非"等待折扣"，这促使电商平台持续优化配送效率、保障政策与 用户体验。例如电商平台Shopee推出"全、值、快、保障"的购物理念，强化热 卖精选、价格保障与快速配送功能，精准响应了消费者"讨厌等待"的心理。 （原 ...