研究报告 Research Report 17 Nov 2025 安踏体育 ANTA SPORTS (2020 HK) 近况更新：随着天气转冷运动鞋服流水压力明显缓解，2026 年行业增长或加速 Recent Updates: Update: Sportswear and Footwear Sell-Through Pressure Eases as Weather Cools; Industry Growth Could Accelerate in 2026 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$82.10 目标价 HK$103.00 HTI ESG 0.7-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$230.47bn / US$29.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$135.10mn 发行股票数目 2,807mn 自由流通股 (% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Shenzhou International, Tabo, and Huayi Group, with respective PE ratios of 15x, 15x, and 21x for 2025 [6][30][34]. Core Views - The recent performance of downstream brand Nike is gradually improving, which is expected to benefit upstream manufacturing companies through order recovery [2][3][31]. - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in orders and profit performance in the short term, but the long-term competitive landscape is expected to optimize, particularly for companies with integrated and international supply chains [30][32]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Reports - In October 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Yu Yuan Group (manufacturing), and Ru Hong decreased by 2.3%, 7.7%, and 6.9% year-on-year, respectively. Cumulatively from January to October 2025, their revenues changed by -4.1%, +1.2%, and +4.1% [1][15][17]. - China's apparel and accessories export value from January to October 2025 was $126.2 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year, while textile yarns and fabrics exports were $117.7 billion, up 0.9% [1][23]. Downstream Brand Performance - Nike's revenue is showing signs of improvement, with inventory conditions also stabilizing. This is expected to lead to order recovery for upstream manufacturers like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [2][26][31]. - Other brands such as Amer and On are maintaining strong growth, while Adidas is actively restocking [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from Nike's recovery, including Shenzhou International, Tabo, and Huayi Group, as well as other strong performers in the sportswear sector like Anta Sports and Li Ning [3][32][34]. - In the fashion and leisure apparel segment, companies like Bosideng and Hailan Home are highlighted for their potential growth as the winter season approaches [32][33]. Market Trends - The report notes that the Southeast Asian countries are outperforming China in apparel exports, with Vietnam's textile exports growing by 7.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [1][23]. - The overall market for sportswear is expected to show resilience despite fluctuations, with long-term growth potential [12][32].

Core Insights - The competition between On Holding (On) and HOKA has intensified, with On showing a significant growth advantage over HOKA in recent financial results [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - On reported a revenue increase of 24.9% to 794.4 million Swiss Francs (approximately 7.09 billion RMB) for Q3, significantly exceeding market expectations [3]. - HOKA's parent company, Deckers Brands, reported a revenue growth of 9.1% to 1.431 billion USD (approximately 10.15 billion RMB) for Q2 of FY2026, with HOKA's growth slowing to 11.1% [5]. - On's gross margin increased to 65.7%, and net profit surged by 289.9% to 119 million Swiss Francs (approximately 1.06 billion RMB) [3]. Market Dynamics - On's Asia-Pacific market saw a remarkable revenue increase of 109.2%, becoming a key driver of overall performance [3]. - HOKA's international revenue declined by 29.3%, indicating challenges in its global market presence [5]. - Both brands entered the Chinese market around 2017-2018, with On currently operating 70 stores in China, while HOKA has 28 [6]. Brand Strategy and Positioning - On has diversified its product line beyond running shoes to include fitness, tennis, and outdoor categories, enhancing its market appeal [8]. - HOKA's strength lies in its cushioning technology, appealing to specific consumer segments, but it has faced challenges in product line innovation [8]. - The competitive landscape includes traditional giants like Nike and Adidas, as well as emerging domestic brands, intensifying the rivalry in the high-end running shoe market [10].

Industry Overview - Taiwan's NOR Flash storage manufacturer Winbond indicated a 50% increase in NOR Flash usage due to the rising demand from AI servers transitioning from HBM3E to HBM4, with plans to raise NOR Flash prices by up to 30% in Q1 next year [3] - The AIOT sector is experiencing rapid growth, as evidenced by the performance of major domestic listed companies, indicating a clear upward trend in storage demand over the next two years [3] Advanced Manufacturing - CATL has made significant supply chain moves, including a framework agreement with Jiangyuan Technology to secure a minimum capacity of 626,000 tons and strategic investments in Tianhua New Energy to ensure lithium salt supply [7] - In October, battery production increased by 22.4% month-on-month, with utilization rates nearing 90%. CATL reported a saturated energy storage capacity with a production of approximately 180 GWh in Q3, maintaining a utilization rate above 90% [7] - The asset expenditure growth for CATL and other companies in the sector indicates a strong commitment to expanding capacity and innovation, suggesting a new cycle of prosperity for lithium batteries and related industries [7] Consumer Sector - On Running reported a Q2 net sales of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a 32% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 61.5% [9] - The company adjusted its full-year sales guidance to 2.91 billion Swiss francs, expecting a growth of at least 31% year-on-year [9] - Brooks, a professional running brand, achieved a 17% sales growth in Q3, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, supported by strong overseas market expansion [9] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are expected to continue their upward trend, with silver showing stronger rebounds than gold due to easing market liquidity and a decline in the US dollar index [11][12] - The increasing proportion of gold reserves held by global central banks and the net inflow of funds into physical gold ETFs reflect growing concerns over dollar credit and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - Silver's recent strong performance is attributed to its relatively low gold-silver ratio and low COMEX exchange inventories, suggesting continued strength in the silver market [12]

Core Viewpoint - HOKA, a rising brand in the outdoor running market, is experiencing a slowdown in growth despite a strong past performance, with net sales growth of 11.1% reaching $634.1 million as of September 30, indicating a decline from previous quarters where growth exceeded 20% [1][2] Financial Performance - HOKA's revenue increased from $150 million in 2018 to $1.81 billion in 2024, achieving a six-year CAGR of 51% and increasing its share of parent company Deckers Brands' revenue from 8% to 42% [2] - The brand's sales growth was only 10% year-over-year for the quarter ending March 31, with previous quarters showing growth rates of 29.7%, 34.7%, and 23.7% [2][3] - Deckers Brands forecasts a low double-digit growth of 10%-15% for HOKA's sales in the current fiscal year due to cautious consumer attitudes and pressures from tariffs and rising product prices in the U.S. market [4][5] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with HOKA facing pressure from brands like ANTA, which maintained a growth rate of 37.2% in the first half of the year, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [3] - Changes in market environment and channel structures, including increased collaboration between major brands like Nike and top retailers, have impacted HOKA's wholesale channel performance [4] Brand Strategy and Future Directions - HOKA's growth model is transitioning, emphasizing brand establishment and channel efficiency as key factors for future success [6] - The brand is focusing on expanding its apparel line and increasing direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, with plans to enhance its presence in the Asia-Pacific market [7][10] - HOKA has established a significant first-mover advantage in the Chinese trail running market, with a market share among the top three brands in terms of footwear worn in events [9] Retail Expansion - HOKA is actively expanding its retail presence in China, with a focus on flagship stores in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, and has opened the largest brand experience center globally [11][12] - The brand's strategy includes collaborating with local retailers to penetrate second-tier markets, reflecting a broader trend of outdoor brands increasing their presence in high-end shopping centers [13][14] Consumer Trends - The Chinese outdoor sports market is characterized by a bifurcation in consumer preferences towards "high cost-performance" and "high quality" products, with sports brands becoming important lifestyle and value expression tools for the middle class [15][16] - The market is shifting from outdoor trail running to urban road running, increasing competition among mid-to-high-end running shoe brands [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Shenzhou International, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Bosideng, among others [10][40]. Core Insights - Puma's Q3 2025 performance shows a significant revenue decline of 15.3% year-on-year to €1.96 billion, with a gross margin decrease of 2.6 percentage points to 45.2%. The company is undergoing a restructuring phase in 2025, focusing on distribution adjustments and cash management [1][15]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector, with expectations for long-term growth despite current challenges. It emphasizes the potential recovery of upstream manufacturing orders as Nike's fundamentals improve [3][27]. - The report identifies specific investment opportunities in the industry, recommending companies with strong performance and growth potential, such as Anta Sports and Li Ning, which have corresponding P/E ratios of 16 and 17 for 2025 [26][40]. Summary by Sections Puma Q3 2025 Performance - Puma's revenue decreased by 15.3% year-on-year to €1.96 billion, with a currency-neutral decline of 10.4%. The adjusted operating profit fell by 83.3% to €39.5 million, and the net profit was a loss of €10 million [1][15]. - The company is implementing a stock clearance plan, expecting inventory levels to normalize by the end of 2026 [1][15]. Regional and Business Model Analysis - The report notes a 15.4% decline in wholesale business to €1.39 billion, while DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) revenue grew by 4.5% to €570 million, driven by e-commerce growth [25][36]. - Revenue across all regions declined, with the Americas down 15.2% to €680 million, Asia-Pacific down 9% to €370 million, and EMEA down 7.1% to €910 million [25][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Shenzhou International, with a 2025 P/E of 14, and Tabo, also with a 2026 P/E of 14, as key beneficiaries of Nike's improving fundamentals [26][40]. - It also highlights Anta Sports and Li Ning as strong long-term growth candidates, with P/E ratios of 16 and 17, respectively [27][40]. - For the fashion and leisure apparel segment, Bosideng is recommended with a 2026 P/E of 13, while Hai Lan's Home and Luolai Life are also noted for their growth potential [28][40].

Core Insights - Skechers has become more focused on long-term strategies following its privatization, emphasizing supply chain integration and localized product design to cater to Chinese consumer needs [1][2] Group 1: Privatization and Strategic Focus - The privatization of Skechers allows the company to concentrate on long-term strategies, enhancing its responsiveness to the Chinese market through supply chain integration and local product design [1] - Skechers was acquired by Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital for approximately $9.42 billion, marking the largest merger in the global footwear and apparel industry [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Product Localization - 90% of Skechers' products sold in China are manufactured locally, which helps mitigate external risks such as tariffs [1] - The company is leveraging AI technology to optimize inventory management [1] Group 3: Targeting Broader Demographics - Skechers aims to cover a wider age range by creating family-oriented consumption scenarios, adjusting its product lines to include children's cartoon styles, senior walking shoes, and youth retro series [1] - The company is enhancing its retail environment by adding children's areas in stores and planning a marketing campaign themed around "home comfort" during the Spring Festival [1] Group 4: Focus on Children's Products - Skechers prioritizes children's shoes and apparel globally, with a focus on fun designs that cater to children's needs [2] - The company sees growth potential in the Chinese children's shoe market, particularly in the small children's segment [2] Group 5: E-commerce and Instant Retail - Skechers is integrating with instant retail platforms, partnering with JD.com for rapid delivery and planning to launch services on Meituan and Taobao [2] - The instant retail initiative currently covers nearly 600 stores across over 60 cities, with plans to expand to more than 3,000 stores [2] Group 6: Market Position and Expansion - Skechers ranks third in the global athletic footwear market, following Nike and Adidas, and has nearly 3,500 stores in China, making it the largest overseas market outside the U.S. [2]

Core Insights - Asics is committed to deepening its investment in the Chinese market, which is crucial for the company's future growth [3] - The company has established a research and development center in China to better cater to the rapidly changing consumer demands [2] - The participation in the China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a significant platform for Asics to interact with Chinese consumers and understand market trends [2][3] Group 1 - Asics showcased its innovative products at the CIIE, including the lightweight carbon plate shoes designed for speed [1] - The company views the CIIE as an important opportunity to engage with the Chinese market and consumers [1][2] - Asics has participated in the CIIE for six consecutive years, highlighting its commitment to the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The new shoe models presented at the CIIE feature advanced technology and are tailored to different running styles [2] - Asics aims to leverage insights gained from the CIIE to enhance its product development and localization strategies [2] - The company emphasizes its ongoing involvement in China's sports industry, contributing to the nation's goal of becoming a sports powerhouse [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [6] Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with the jewelry sector showing better growth compared to clothing [14] - The domestic sportswear market is expected to maintain long-term growth resilience despite short-term fluctuations in offline sales [1] - The report highlights the importance of inventory management and the impact of promotional events on sales performance [1][2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Sports Footwear and Apparel - The sports footwear and apparel sector showed weaker performance in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 but still outperformed the overall apparel market [1] - Offline sales for domestic sports brands remain weak, while e-commerce channels are performing better [1] - Inventory levels for domestic sports brands increased in Q3 due to preparations for the National Day holiday and Double Eleven sales [1] - Adidas reported a 6% year-on-year revenue growth in Greater China for Q3 2025, while Nike's sales in the region declined [1][18] 2. Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector showed improvement in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit growth of 3.1% and 23.2% respectively, driven by a low base effect [2] - The home textile segment benefited from product updates, while the fashion apparel category faced weak demand due to low consumer confidence [2] - The report anticipates continued reasonable expense management and stable profit growth for some companies in Q4 2025 [2] 3. Textile Manufacturing - Revenue for key textile manufacturing companies remained relatively stable, with a slight decline in net profit [3] - Companies with different customer structures showed varied performance, with some like Huayi Group achieving a 7% revenue growth by expanding their client base [3] - The report suggests that as inventory levels normalize, there may be a recovery in orders from upstream manufacturing companies [3] 4. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector experienced performance differentiation, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 11.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Companies with fewer stores or a direct sales model reported excellent revenue growth, with some like Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long achieving revenue increases of 28.3% and 29.3% respectively [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product and channel capabilities in the jewelry sector [4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including Shenzhou International, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Chow Tai Fook, highlighting their respective PE ratios for 2025 [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Adidas faces backlash from consumers over high-priced down jackets produced by a third-party manufacturer, Snow Flying, which offers similar products at lower prices, raising questions about brand premium and consumer awareness [1][2][5] Financial Performance - Adidas reported third-quarter revenue of €6.6 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, and operating profit of €736 million, up 23% [1][6] - In the Greater China region, third-quarter revenue reached €947 million, marking a 10% year-on-year growth and achieving ten consecutive quarters of growth [1][8] - The company has raised its annual performance forecast despite the ongoing controversy [8][12] Market Position and Competition - Adidas has seen a resurgence in the Chinese market after a decline due to the Xinjiang cotton controversy, but faces strong competition from local brands like Anta and Li Ning, which have surpassed Adidas in revenue and market share [1][6][15] - Adidas's market share in China has dropped from 15% in 2021 to 8.7% in 2024, while local brands continue to grow [15][16] Consumer Sentiment and Brand Strategy - Consumer complaints about product quality and service have surged, with over 25,000 complaints on platforms like Black Cat Complaints, primarily focused on quality issues [4][5] - The shift in consumer focus towards value for money over brand prestige is evident, with a significant increase in consumers prioritizing product pricing [16] - Adidas has adapted its strategy by positioning itself as a fashion brand and engaging popular celebrities for endorsements, which has helped regain consumer interest [9][11] Industry Trends - The use of third-party manufacturing is common in the industry, allowing brands like Adidas to reduce costs, but it can negatively impact brand image if consumers feel misled about product origins [5][12] - The overall sportswear market in China is projected to grow from ¥542.5 billion in 2024 to ¥598.9 billion by the end of 2025, indicating a competitive landscape for all brands [12][16]