Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for the pig industry continues to strengthen due to dual catalysts from policies and diseases, with a recommendation for long-term positioning despite current price lows [3][5] - The pet food export volume continues to grow year-on-year, indicating a sustained positive trend in the pet food market [4][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is running at a low level, with the national average price at 12.71 yuan/kg as of September 21, 2025, down 0.50 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 5.73 yuan/kg year-on-year [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.45 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week and year-on-year [3][13] - The pig industry is expected to see a strong execution of policies aimed at capacity reduction, which will enhance the expectations for substantial capacity reduction [3][13] Weekly Viewpoint - The investment logic for the pig industry is marginally improving, with a recommendation for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][24] - The domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][25] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][28] Market Performance (September 15-19) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.40 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 2.70% [6][29] - Leading stocks included Shennong Biotechnology (+9.36%), Xuelong Biotechnology (+7.64%), and Tianma Technology (+3.90%) [6][29] Price Tracking (September 15-19) - The average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week [7][37] - The average price of piglets was 22.38 yuan/kg, down 1.57 yuan/kg week-on-week [7][37] - The average price of beef was 65.60 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [44][37] Key News (September 15-19) - Notification regarding the central reserve frozen pork storage auction scheduled for September 23, 2025, with 15,000 tons available for auction [35]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector's expected differences, highlighting the current low prices and the potential for capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [11][12] - The dairy and beef sectors are seen as entering a new cycle, with opportunities arising from the recovery of raw milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [13] - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands rising and export trends improving, indicating a robust pet economy [14] - The poultry sector faces challenges with breeding imports and demand fluctuations, suggesting a focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][19] - The planting sector is shifting towards biological breeding strategies to ensure food security, with a focus on increasing yields through improved seed technology [21] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance, particularly in companies like Haida Group [22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of September 6, the average price of pigs is 13.87 CNY/kg, up 0.73% from the previous week, while the price of piglets is at a new low of 324 CNY/head [11] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs highlighted for their market capitalization [12] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may be starting, with a focus on companies that can leverage mother cow resources [13] Pet Sector - The domestic pet food market is growing, with significant sales increases noted, and companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recommended for investment [14] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, with a recommendation to focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][17] - The yellow chicken market is expected to see price improvements due to demand increases in the second half of the year [19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving higher yields through biological breeding, with key recommendations for seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [21] Feed Sector - Haida Group is recommended for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed industry, with expectations of a market recovery [22]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed price trends for various livestock and feed products, with some prices increasing while others are declining [1][2]. Livestock Prices - The average price of piglets in China is 32.68 yuan/kg, down 1.7% week-on-week and down 25.7% year-on-year [1] - The national average price for pigs is 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% week-on-week and 30.1% year-on-year [1] - The average price of pork is 24.81 yuan/kg, down 0.5% week-on-week and down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The average price of beef is 70.41 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 3.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of lamb is 69.02 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week but down 1.7% year-on-year [2] Poultry Prices - The average price of eggs is 8.87 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week but down 22.8% year-on-year [1] - The average price of chicken is 22.45 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and down 5.9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of broiler chicks is 3.47 yuan each, up 1.5% week-on-week but down 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The average price of layer chicks is 3.76 yuan each, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.3% year-on-year [1] Feed Prices - The average price of corn is 2.49 yuan/kg, down 0.4% week-on-week and down 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The average price of soybean meal is 3.31 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of fattening pig feed is 3.40 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The average price of broiler feed is 3.51 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 2.2% year-on-year [2] - The average price of layer feed is 3.23 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.1% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - Thailand's government has reached a new tariff agreement with the United States, which implements zero tariffs on over 90% of U.S. products while establishing protective measures for certain sensitive agricultural products [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement Details - The agreement includes a gradual tariff reduction on U.S. pork, with import quantity limits set to allow U.S. pork to account for less than 1% of domestic consumption [1] - U.S. pork exports must be free of ractopamine, a substance banned in Thailand, to comply with local regulations [1] Group 2: Impact on Local Industry - The measures aim to provide space for U.S. companies to test the market while allowing local producers, such as CP Group and Betagro, time to adjust and mitigate impacts [1] - For corn, Thailand will prioritize local corn purchases at fixed prices for domestic feed mills before allowing quota imports of U.S. corn [1] - The Thai Feed Mill Association estimates that Thailand could import up to $2.8 billion worth of U.S. corn, soybean meal, and distiller's grains annually [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that a new round of price increases for pigs may gradually begin, with the African swine fever vaccine opening growth opportunities for the animal health sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for specific companies [5][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - As of August 15, 2025, the national average price of live pigs is 13.73 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [4][13] - The price premium for 150kg fat pigs over 120kg standard pigs is 0.28 CNY/kg, indicating a tightening supply [4][13] Weekly Market Performance (August 11-15) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.84 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 0.14% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% [6][35] - Key stocks that led the gains include COFCO Sugar (+41.04%), Shunli Biological (+13.97%), and Xiaoming Co. (+8.86%) [6][35] Price Tracking (August 11-15) - The average price of live pigs on August 15 is 13.76 CNY/kg, a slight increase from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of piglets is 28.87 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 5.03% from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [6][51] Key News (August 11-15) - The central government allocated 1.146 billion CNY for agricultural disaster relief, supporting major grain-producing provinces [6][41]

Core Insights - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department reported price fluctuations in various agricultural products for the first week of August, indicating a mixed trend in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - **Pork Products**: - Average price of piglets: 34.66 CNY/kg, down 1.2% week-on-week and down 21.6% year-on-year - Average price of live pigs: 14.53 CNY/kg, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 28.1% year-on-year - Average price of pork: 25.16 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - **Poultry Products**: - Average price of eggs: 8.75 CNY/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 19.9% year-on-year - Average price of chicken: 22.40 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 5.8% year-on-year - Average price of broiler chicks: 3.28 CNY each, up 2.5% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year - Average price of layer chicks: 3.78 CNY each, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - **Beef and Lamb Products**: - Average price of beef: 69.85 CNY/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 2.2% year-on-year - Average price of lamb: 68.74 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 2.3% year-on-year [1]. Feed Prices - **Corn**: - National average price: 2.50 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.1% year-on-year - Northeast region average: 2.30 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week - Guangdong province average: 2.59 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: - National average price: 3.28 CNY/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week and down 5.2% year-on-year [2]. - **Fattening Pig Feed**: - Average price: 3.39 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.7% year-on-year - Average price of meat chicken feed: 3.51 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.0% year-on-year - Average price of egg-laying chicken feed: 3.23 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.3% year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The overall allocation in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is currently low, below the standard allocation level. The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the breeding sector, which are expected to see continuous profit growth due to high-quality industry development [19][3] - The report highlights a significant increase in allocation towards the feed and breeding sectors, indicating a positive trend in the industry [13][19] Summary by Sections Fund Heavyweight Allocation - As of the end of Q2 2025, the heavy allocation of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery stocks is 1.36%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but a decrease of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year. This allocation is 0.14 percentage points below the industry average [11][1] - The breeding sector's heavy allocation is 0.41%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous quarter but down 0.72 percentage points year-on-year. The feed sector's heavy allocation is 0.85%, up 0.28 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and up 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [13][11] Company-Specific Increases - Notable increases in allocation among the top 15 heavy stocks include Haida Group (+0.26 percentage points), Muyuan Foods (+0.1 percentage points), and others. The top five stocks with relative increases in holding value include Haida Group (+2.95%), Bangji Technology (+1.90%), and others [2][15] Investment Recommendations - For the breeding sector, the report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Dekang Animal Husbandry, as well as seasonal price rebounds in chicken prices. For the feed and animal health sectors, it suggests looking at leading companies like Haida Group and Bangji Technology [19][3] - The planting sector shows strong profitability stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang. The seed sector is expected to gain attention due to the commercialization of genetically modified seeds, with potential growth opportunities in companies like Dunhuang Seed and Longping High-Tech [19][3]

Core Insights - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department reported price changes in livestock and feed markets for the week ending July 31, indicating a mixed trend in prices across various products [1][2]. Livestock Products - The average price of piglets was 35.07 yuan/kg, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 20.0% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of live pigs was 14.66 yuan/kg, down 1.3% week-on-week and down 24.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of pork was 25.21 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of beef was 69.74 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and up 1.8% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of lamb was 68.73 yuan/kg, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 2.4% year-on-year [2]. Poultry Products - The average price of eggs was 8.78 yuan/kg, up 1.7% week-on-week and down 18.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of chicken was 22.41 yuan/kg, up 0.1% week-on-week and down 5.4% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.79 yuan each, up 0.3% week-on-week and down 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of meat chicks was 3.20 yuan each, up 1.9% week-on-week and down 9.9% year-on-year [1]. Feed Prices - The average price of corn was 2.50 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 3.1% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of soybean meal was 3.27 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 6.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of fattening pig feed was 3.39 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and down 4.0% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of broiler feed was 3.51 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 3.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average price of layer feed was 3.23 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 3.6% year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector is experiencing a marginal improvement in investment logic for live pigs, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of a price increase in the second half of 2025 [26] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, supported by consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with a projected market size growth of over 10% annually from 2025 to 2027 [28][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The national pig price is under pressure due to group weight reduction and increased market supply, with an average price of 14.02 CNY/kg as of August 3, 2025, down 0.57% from the previous week [5][14] - The average weight of pigs sold has decreased to 127.98 kg, reflecting a downward trend due to weight reduction policies and slow growth in high temperatures [16] Weekly Insights - The investment logic for live pigs is improving, with expectations of price support in the second half of 2025 due to a combination of fundamental and policy factors [26] - The feed sector is benefiting from a recovery in domestic livestock and poultry production, with a total feed output expected to reach 1.4 trillion CNY in 2023 [26] Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 2.03 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 2.97% during the week [30][31] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains, with stocks like Shenlian Biological and Huisheng Biological leading the performance [30] Price Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the average price for live pigs was 14.33 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 1.27% from the previous week [42] - The average price for corn was 2,296 CNY/ton, down 0.78% week-on-week, while soybean meal was priced at 3,004 CNY/ton, down 0.69% [60] Key News - The overall situation in China's livestock industry is stable and improving, with a reported production increase of 2.8% in meat output during the first half of 2025 [38] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, indicating a potential reduction in pig supply, which may stabilize prices [38]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]