肉牛养殖强周期性，全球牛价开启上行周期 母牛配种后需要经过大约 28 个月的时间育肥牛才能出栏，同时母牛单胎产仔数通常为 1 头，生产效率偏低使其种群 规模扩张速度存在明显限制，肉牛供给端的增长也呈现较长周期，历史上中国牛肉价格上行周期平均长度 4 年左右。 全球牛价新一轮上涨已经开启，景气周期有望延续至 2027 年。2022 年 4 月份全球牛价见顶后开始出现调整，期间由 于养殖盈利的缩窄、全球天气导致牧场退化等因素驱动全球牛存栏进一步下降。全球牛肉价格本轮自 2023 年 12 月份 开始上涨，截至 2025 年 6 月已经上涨至 6.58 美元/公斤，整体上涨幅度达到 36.2%，而牛肉供给量在未来 2 年依旧 呈现下降趋势，新一轮上行周期有望维持至 2027 年以后。 国内产能大幅下降，牛肉价格有望再创新高 我国牛肉供给约 73%源自国内生产，27%源自海外进口，目前国内活牛存栏与海外进口均呈现收缩态势：由于国内肉牛 养殖规模化程度极低，2023 年 TOP50 肉牛养殖企业存栏量占比仅为 1.25%，行业在连续亏损 20 多个月后，预计产能 端出现大幅去化。进口端：由于中国区域目前处于全球相对低价 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]

以下文章来源于大树乡谈 ，作者镇长本人 大树乡谈 . 讲逻辑，说人话，有意思。让我们一起穿越时代迷雾、共同成长至少20年。 这是新消费智库第 2 6 5 0 期文章 新消费导读 中国制造，是令一切对手窒息的"叹息之墙"。 作者 ：镇长本人 编辑：竺天 审核： Single 来源：大树乡谈 今晚在外面吃饭，有一道北京烤鸭，这几乎是迎接来京亲朋好友必吃的菜，席间小镇就说要 拿这只烤鸭写今晚的文章。饭店的烤鸭价格不一，一般怎么也得百元左右，而很多街边、菜 市场的烤鸭店，一只烤鸭才 20 多元甚至十几元，还能给配一套鸭饼葱丝黄瓜丝蘸料。 这是挺有意思的现象，小小的烤鸭背后是强大的生态体系。 一般用作烤鸭的，白条鸭净重是 2 到 3 斤，就按照两斤半计算，高效的规模化养殖，鸭子 的料肉比大概是 1.6 到 3.5 不等，长得最快的小白条鸭料肉比是 1.6 ，也就是 1.6 斤饲 料能长一斤肉。除了饲料，养殖户还要承担场地、水电、疫苗、损耗等其他成本，做成烤鸭 不仅要计算鸭子的成本，还要计算物流储运、加工成本、正常利润等。 把这些都算进去，一套烤鸭才卖不到 20 元，这实在太奇怪了，就好像商家做慈善似的。 商家当然不会做 ...