最近美国老百姓有点闹心，超市里的碎牛肉价蹭蹭往上涨，眼看万圣节要到了，给孩子买套服装都得掂量半天。 这两件事看着不搭界，追根溯源都和特朗普的关税政策脱不了干系。 现在美国市场上的碎牛肉，一斤差不多要七美元了，比之前贵了不少。 在美国做餐饮的朋友说进货时明显感觉成本高了，好些快餐店的汉堡套餐都悄悄涨了价。 牛肉涨价不是没原因的，美国有些地方闹干旱，牧场主们养不起那么多牛，只能缩减牛群数量。 牛少了，供应自然就跟不上，需求却没减，价格往上走是必然的。 更关键的是，特朗普之前给不少贸易伙伴加了关税，像巴西这些原本给美国供牛肉的国家，进口量直接降了下来。 这么一来，市场上的牛肉更紧张了。 按说特朗普一直喊着"美国制造"，凡事都要优先本土产品。 可这次他却改了主意，说要从阿根廷进口牛肉，这个转变挺让人意外的。 他自己也说了，买阿根廷牛肉就是为了增加供应，把价格压下来。 特朗普这么做也有自己的考量，美国刚给了阿根廷两百亿美元的经济支持，还帮着稳定他们的货币。 正好阿根廷总统米莱访美，双方在谈自由贸易协定，牛肉贸易算是其中的一个筹码。 而且特朗普对米莱挺有好感，还想借着阿根廷削弱中国在拉美的影响力。 但美国本土的养牛户不干 ...

"如果不是我，他们的处境会和过去20年一样：糟透了！"特朗普在这条帖文中写道。 美国牛肉业者强烈反对 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，自去年以来，美国牛肉价格普遍上涨，一些产品，例如无骨西冷牛排，涨 幅已经超过16%。特朗普周日表示，他正在"考虑"与阿根廷达成一项协议，从阿根廷"购买一些牛 肉"。"如果这样做，我们的牛肉价格就会下降。"他说。 塔珀表示，他已经与国会共和党高层进行了交谈，并已经致信特朗普，要求举行会议，敦促他不要再从 阿根廷购买牛肉。 "肉牛曾经是我们赖以生存的唯一支柱。如果价格下跌，我们现在就会受到影响，甚至会影响到我们的 后代。"印第安纳州的牛肉和农作物生产商罗伯茨（Randy Roberts）表示，"年轻一代将很难进入养牛行 业。" 总部位于怀俄明州的牛肉公司梅里韦瑟农场（Meriwether Farms）在社交媒体上直接点名批评了特朗 普："亲爱的特朗普总统，我们爱你、支持你。但你提出的从阿根廷购买牛肉以稳定牛肉价格的建议， 绝对是对美国牧场主的背叛。" 自去年以来，美国牛肉价格普遍上涨。特朗普近日表示，"考虑"从阿根廷"购买一些牛肉"。 周三当天，特朗普补充说，他目前正努力在"扶持牛肉产业 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 杨舒宇】"该计划只会在美国养牛户一年中的关键时期制造混乱，而对降低食品杂 货店中的价格毫无帮助。"美国全国广播公司（NBC）网站21日报道称，美国总统特朗普引进阿根廷牛 肉的计划引发美国养牛业的强烈反对，养牛户警告称，这一计划将"损害"美国养牛从业者的利益。 《新闻周刊》报道认为，美国与阿根廷达成的牛肉交易协议可能进一步激怒美国农民，他们当中许多人 对日前美国向米莱政府提供200亿美元援助以支撑阿根廷经济感到不满，尤其是大豆种植户。据报道， 今年9月，中国未从美国进口大豆。而从阿根廷进口的大豆较去年同期暴增91.5%，至117万吨，占总量 的9%。 白宫已经承认了这个问题。上周五，特朗普表示，政府即将达成"牛肉协议"，可能"很快"就会降低价 格。但美国牛肉业协会警告说，困扰该行业的问题没有快速解决的办法，特朗普的言论"在掩盖真相"。 该组织在一份新闻稿中表示："当政策制定者暗示干预或提出快速解决方案，可能动摇市场基础，并直 接影响依赖稳定透明价格的牧场主的生计。" 与此同时，美国对阿根廷的经济援助也陷入僵持。《华尔街日报》20日报道称，包括摩根大通、美国银 行和高盛在内的一些美国银行不愿 ...

Group 1: Swine Sector - The pig sector is experiencing a shift from profit to loss in piglet exports, emphasizing the need to focus on the expected differences in the swine sector [1] - Current average weights for pig slaughter remain high historically, while high temperatures are suppressing consumption demand, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [1] - A meeting on September 16 will analyze the current production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures, with expectations for capacity reduction in the second half of the year and into 2024 [1] - The sector is considered undervalued, with key companies like Muyuan Foods valued at 3500-4000 RMB per head, while others like New Hope and Tian Kang Biological are below 2000 RMB per head [1] - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on New Hope and other flexible stocks [1] Group 2: Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is expected to bottom out, with potential recovery as the dairy cow capacity reduction nears its end [2] - The beef market may be entering a super cycle, but various factors such as funding and environmental concerns may limit restocking enthusiasm [2] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [2] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Guangming Meat [2] Group 3: Pet Sector - The pet economy in China is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, highlighting the importance of companies with high domestic revenue growth [3] - Key recommendations include pet food companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with additional focus on pet medical and supply companies [3] Group 4: Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is advised to focus on changes in breeding imports, as the industry has been in a downturn for three years [4] - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a core variable; prices are expected to improve as consumption increases in the second half of the year [5] - The egg-laying chicken sector is seeing high chick prices due to import restrictions, with a focus on companies with high market share [6] - Recommended stocks include Shennong Development and Lihua Group for white chicken, and Xiaoming Co. for egg-laying chickens [4][5][6] Group 5: Planting Sector - The conventional seed industry is awaiting a turnaround, with a focus on the industrialization of biological breeding opportunities [7] - The contribution of yield improvement to grain production is expected to exceed 80% in 2024, emphasizing the need for high-yield production [7] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong in the seed sector, and Xinyangfeng in agricultural inputs [7] Group 6: Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and consistent performance [8] - The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition, with an emphasis on innovation and new product development [9] - Recommended companies in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological and others focusing on pet health products [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector's expected differences, highlighting the current low prices and the potential for capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [11][12] - The dairy and beef sectors are seen as entering a new cycle, with opportunities arising from the recovery of raw milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [13] - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands rising and export trends improving, indicating a robust pet economy [14] - The poultry sector faces challenges with breeding imports and demand fluctuations, suggesting a focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][19] - The planting sector is shifting towards biological breeding strategies to ensure food security, with a focus on increasing yields through improved seed technology [21] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance, particularly in companies like Haida Group [22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of September 6, the average price of pigs is 13.87 CNY/kg, up 0.73% from the previous week, while the price of piglets is at a new low of 324 CNY/head [11] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs highlighted for their market capitalization [12] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may be starting, with a focus on companies that can leverage mother cow resources [13] Pet Sector - The domestic pet food market is growing, with significant sales increases noted, and companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recommended for investment [14] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, with a recommendation to focus on self-breeding opportunities [16][17] - The yellow chicken market is expected to see price improvements due to demand increases in the second half of the year [19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving higher yields through biological breeding, with key recommendations for seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [21] Feed Sector - Haida Group is recommended for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed industry, with expectations of a market recovery [22]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the beef industry, highlighting a new upward cycle in global beef prices expected to last until 2027 [1][4]. Core Insights - The beef cattle breeding industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with a long production cycle of approximately 28 months for fattening cattle, leading to limited supply growth [1][12]. - Global beef prices have entered a new upward cycle, with prices expected to rise significantly due to declining supply and increasing demand [1][20]. - Domestic beef supply in China is projected to decrease significantly, leading to potential new highs in beef prices [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Cyclicality in Beef Cattle Breeding, Global Beef Prices Entering Upward Cycle - The production cycle for beef cattle is lengthy, with a typical time frame of over 2 years from breeding to market [1][12]. - Historical data shows that the average length of beef price upcycles in China is around 4 years, with the current cycle expected to extend until 2027 [1][20]. 2. Significant Decline in Domestic Capacity, Beef Prices Expected to Reach New Highs - Approximately 73% of China's beef supply comes from domestic production, with a notable contraction in both domestic cattle inventory and imports [2][35]. - The top 50 beef cattle breeding enterprises account for only 1.25% of the total inventory, indicating low industry scale and significant losses leading to capacity reduction [2][48]. - Policy measures are anticipated to further restrict beef imports, contributing to a decrease in supply and an increase in domestic beef prices [2][60]. 3. Multiple Factors Leading to Global Inventory Decline, Overseas Beef Prices Rising - Global cattle inventory is projected to decline, with a forecasted decrease of 1% in 2025, marking the lowest level in a decade [3][77]. - The supply contraction is expected to drive global beef prices higher, with significant reliance on South American countries for imports [3][66]. - The U.S. beef prices have reached historical highs, further influencing global price trends [3][66]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Optimistic Outlook for the Beef Industry, Emphasis on Dairy-Beef Synergy - The report suggests a favorable investment environment in the beef industry, particularly for exporters benefiting from rising global beef prices [4][66]. - The correlation between beef and milk prices indicates potential profitability for dairy cattle operations as beef prices rise [4][66].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strength and efficiency of China's manufacturing industry, highlighting its ability to utilize resources fully and create extensive industrial chains that other countries cannot match [3][42]. Group 1: Duck Industry Example - The price of Peking duck varies significantly, with restaurant prices around 100 yuan, while street vendors sell it for as low as 20 yuan, showcasing a complex ecosystem behind the product [5][6]. - The cost structure of a duck includes feed, logistics, processing, and profit margins, leading to a wholesale price of only 2-3 yuan per duck, which raises questions about sustainability [10][12]. - The duck industry exemplifies China's manufacturing prowess, where every part of the duck is utilized, creating a comprehensive profit cycle that maximizes resource use [12][13]. Group 2: Agricultural Products and Trade - The U.S.-China trade war has severely impacted American agricultural exports, particularly chicken feet, which are primarily consumed in China, leading to significant losses for U.S. farmers [14]. - Other agricultural products, like sugarcane and corn husks, are being innovatively repurposed in China for biomass energy and other uses, demonstrating the country's ability to turn waste into valuable resources [15][18]. Group 3: Waste Management and Recycling - China's waste management has evolved from concerns about "garbage cities" to a situation where waste is now a valuable resource for energy production, with a significant gap in waste supply for incineration plants [20][22]. - The construction of waste-to-energy plants has increased, with 2023 seeing the capacity to process nearly 400 million tons of waste, highlighting the shift in waste management strategies [22][24]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Resource Utilization - The article discusses how technological advancements have allowed for the transformation of previously discarded materials, such as kitchen waste and used cooking oil, into valuable products like biodiesel and green methanol [27][29]. - The recycling of textiles into regenerated fibers is another example of China's leadership in circular economy practices, with initiatives to enhance resource recovery and sustainability [32][34]. Group 5: Comprehensive Industrial Chains - The article illustrates how industries in China benefit from complete industrial chains, where even waste materials can be profitably processed, leading to lower raw material costs and higher efficiency [34][37]. - Companies like Mixue Ice City are integrating supply chains to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness, demonstrating the trend of vertical integration in various sectors [37][38]. Group 6: Global Comparisons - The article contrasts China's resource utilization with that of other countries, noting that many foreign industries fail to capitalize on by-products due to technological limitations, leading to waste [40][42]. - China's unified market and extensive cultural heritage provide a unique advantage in maximizing resource use across various sectors, making it difficult for other nations to replicate this efficiency [42][44].