Group 1 - The European thermoplastic plastic market is undergoing a trade restructuring due to global demand changes and tariff policy adjustments since 2025, with a complex global trade environment exacerbated by tariffs imposed by the US on various sectors [2] - The surge in imports from East Asia, particularly in the ABS market, has led European producers to file anti-dumping complaints, resulting in temporary anti-dumping measures against Korean imports with tariffs ranging from 3.7% to 5.8% [2] - Despite the temporary measures, imports continue to flood the European market as East Asian producers shift their focus to Europe to compensate for losses in the US market [2] Group 2 - Following the imposition of final anti-dumping duties of 58% to 100.1% on PVC from the US and Egypt, European PVC consumers are increasingly sourcing from Northeast Asia, although Asian imports have not fully compensated for the shortfall from the US and Egypt [3] - The European polycarbonate (PC) market is facing oversupply and downward price pressure due to abundant Asian imports, with Chinese PC products now available in European warehouses, alleviating previous logistical constraints [3] - The entry of Chinese electric vehicles into the European market is squeezing local automotive demand, contributing to a decline in sales for major European car manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen in the first half of 2025 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.79 billion yuan in Q1-3 of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 325 million yuan, up 55.4% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, reflecting an 80.8% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, with its subsidiary investing in a 2.5GWh cylindrical battery project in Malaysia to meet the high-performance battery demands in various sectors [1]. - The company received orders for sodium-ion batteries totaling no less than 1GWh from overseas clients, primarily for residential, commercial, and telecommunications applications [2]. - The company has successfully delivered its first batch of square 314Ah semi-solid batteries, becoming the first in China to transition this technology from the lab to mass production [2]. Financial Summary - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 500 million yuan and 600 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30X and 25X [3]. - The estimated net profit for 2027 is 720 million yuan, with a P/E ratio of 21X [3]. - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 8.71 billion yuan (2023), 8.31 billion yuan (2024), 9.44 billion yuan (2025E), 11.11 billion yuan (2026E), and 13.15 billion yuan (2027E) [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yongyue Technology (603879) has experienced a decline in stock price and revenue, with significant changes in shareholder structure and financial performance reported for Q3 2025 [1][3]. Shareholder Changes - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 14,100, a reduction of 34.62% from June 30, 2025 [1][3]. - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 16,700 to 25,500, with an average holding value of 157,700 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yongyue Technology reported a main revenue of 231 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.15% [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 9.25 million RMB, but this represented a 72.65% improvement in loss compared to the previous year [1][4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company recorded a revenue of 81.76 million RMB, down 21.31% year-on-year, with a net loss of 3.08 million RMB, showing a 65.41% improvement in loss compared to the same quarter last year [1][4]. Stock Buyback and Reduction Plan - The company plans to reduce its repurchased shares, totaling 4,851,100 shares, which is 1.35% of the total share capital, between November 24, 2025, and May 23, 2026 [2][9]. - The purpose of the reduction is to supplement the company's working capital, and it will not affect the control or ownership structure of the company [2][9]. Financial Ratios - The company reported a debt ratio of 11.85% and a gross profit margin of 9.27% [1]. - The weighted average return on net assets was -1.20%, a decrease of 2.37 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. Major Shareholders - The largest shareholder, Jiangsu Huaying Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., holds 17.30% of the shares, with a significant portion pledged and frozen [5][6]. - The top ten shareholders collectively hold a significant portion of the company's equity, indicating concentrated ownership [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Ruifeng Tai emphasizes the importance of market value management and is committed to enhancing its core business in high-performance polyimide film materials to maximize company and shareholder value [1] Company Focus - The company has consistently prioritized market value management [1] - Ruifeng Tai is dedicated to its main business of high-performance polyimide film materials [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.11% on October 31, with Shangwei New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Stock Performance - Zhejiang Zhongcheng saw a significant increase of 10.09%, closing at 5.13, with a trading volume of 438,400 shares and a transaction value of 217 million [1] - Xiangyuan New Materials rose by 6.85%, closing at 30.43, with a transaction value of 530 million [1] - The worst performer was Shangwei New Materials, which fell by 9.14%, closing at 105.31, with a transaction value of 1.309 billion [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector had a net inflow of 22.29 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 266 million [2] - The sector saw a net outflow of 288 million from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Cangzhou Mingzhu had a net inflow of 14.4 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 88.44 million from speculative funds [3] - Zhejiang Zhongcheng attracted a net inflow of 64.39 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 27.14 million from speculative funds [3] - Dongcai Technology experienced a net inflow of 26.22 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds had a net outflow of 54.25 million [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Supply is at a high level, with weak demand support in the short - term due to shrinking industry profits in downstream alumina. However, there may be demand support in the medium - to long - term as the procurement cycle approaches and alumina has more planned production in Q1 next year [1]. - PVC: Supply returns to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resume production. Domestic downstream demand remains weak, and cost provides bottom - line support. The market is expected to be lackluster during the peak season [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is generally stable, and demand support has strengthened. It is in a situation of high short - term supply and demand but with a weak overall outlook. Cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted [2]. - PTA: Spot basis is weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure due to factors such as the resumption of some device loads and the decline in oil prices [2]. - MEG: Port inventory decreases, but the upward driving force weakens. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly, but the overall supply - demand drive is limited. The price rebound is expected to face pressure, but it has relatively stronger support at low inventory levels [2]. - Bottle - chips: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, it mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Domestic supply is loose, and demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand expectation is still loose, and price drive is limited. It follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [5]. - Styrene: Under inventory and profit pressure, supply pressure still exists, and demand support is limited. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The inland market has price inversion problems. The MTO load decreases, and demand support is insufficient. The price is expected to decline in the short - term, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas - limiting expectations [8]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply recovery slows down due to more unplanned maintenance. PE: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has warmed up, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Some PVC spot and futures prices changed slightly, and caustic soda prices were mostly stable [1]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry and some regional开工 rates increased slightly, while PVC total开工 rate decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Caustic soda downstream开工 rates were mostly stable, and PVC downstream制品开工 rates increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: Both caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased to some extent [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream prices**: PX, ethylene, and other prices changed slightly, and oil prices increased slightly [2]. - **Downstream product prices and cash flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as FDY, bottle - chips, and short - fibers changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **开工 rates**: The综合开工 rate of polyester was stable, and the开工 rates of some segments such as PTA and MEG changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream prices and spreads**: Prices of crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and spreads also changed [5]. - **Benzene - related prices and spreads**: Benzene and styrene prices decreased, and spreads changed [5]. - **Downstream cash flows**: Cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene improved [5]. - **Inventory**: Both pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [5]. - **开工 rates**:开工 rates of some segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **开工 rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工 rates decreased slightly, and some downstream开工 rates increased while others decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Both PE and PP inventories decreased [10]. - **开工 rates**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream加权开工率 increased. PP装置开工率 decreased, and some downstream开工 rates increased [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory accumulation trend has slowed, but the inventory pressure remains high. The cost of the calcium carbide method has increased and losses have deepened; the cost of the ethylene method has decreased and losses have also deepened. This week, the 500,000 - ton Inner Mongolia Yili and 500,000 - ton Shandong Xinfa Phase II plants are restarting, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rebound to a relatively high level. In the long - term, the new capacity launch will further increase the supply pressure. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down demand growth, and the downstream start - up is expected to change little. Coal is expected to remain strong, and the supply of calcium carbide is affected by the power - use policy in the northwest, while downstream plants are restarting one after another, so the raw material cost of PVC is expected to rise. The supply - demand drive of PVC remains weak, but the stronger cost side raises the lower limit of valuation. In the short - term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and technically, attention should be paid to the pressure around 4900 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,045,974 lots, an increase of 205,951 lots. The open interest was 1,161,917 lots, a decrease of 42,460 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 896,091 lots, a decrease of 7,941 lots; the short positions were 1,018,333 lots, a decrease of 24,189 lots; and the net long positions were - 122,242 lots, an increase of 16,248 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4815 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4650.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.08 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4820 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4731.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 106 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2706.67 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China was 2555 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia was 518 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia was 184 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.57%, a decrease of 0.12%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 74.38%, a decrease of 0.33%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.64%, an increase of 0.38%. The total social inventory of PVC was 554,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 505,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons; in the South China region was 49,500 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2] 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.37%, an increase of 0.59%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.86%, an increase of 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.84%, a decrease of 0.74%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.85%, a decrease of 0.72% [2] 3.7行业消息 - From October 18th to 24th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, a decrease of 0.12% compared with the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 1.27% to 49.86%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 41.2%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 35.87%. As of October 30th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared with last week. From October 18th to 24th, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5144 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5412 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 723 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method decreased to - 560 yuan/ton [2]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 1.7% on October 30, with Daon Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Hechang Polymer (Code: 920089) with a closing price of 21.00, up 7.31% [1] - Shangwei New Materials (Code: 688585) with a closing price of 115.90, up 7.11% [1] - Jiangsu Boyun (Code: 301003) with a closing price of 38.63, up 3.65% [1] - Major decliners included: - Daon Co. (Code: 002838) with a closing price of 24.24, down 9.32% [2] - Henghe Precision (Code: 300539) with a closing price of 47.51, down 6.75% [2] - Shengquan Group (Code: 605589) with a closing price of 28.69, down 5.59% [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 1.341 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.074 billion yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors showed interest [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Jun Ding Da (Code: 301538) with a net inflow of 20.2816 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiangsu Boyun (Code: 301003) with a net inflow of 11.9288 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shenkai Co. (Code: 002361) with a net inflow of 1.8538 million yuan from retail investors [3]