Core Viewpoint - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first 11 months of this year, China's export of electromechanical products reached 14.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 60.9% of total exports [1] Summary by Category Electromechanical Products - Exports of electromechanical products totaled 14.89 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% [1] - Automatic data processing equipment and its components accounted for 1.31 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 1.3% [1] - Integrated circuits reached 1.29 trillion yuan, with a significant increase of 25.6% [1] - Automobile exports were valued at 896.91 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.6% [1] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products amounted to 3.7 trillion yuan, decreasing by 3.5%, which represents 15.1% of total exports [1] - Exports of clothing and accessories were 987.26 billion yuan, down by 3.7% [1] - Textile exports reached 931.33 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.7% [1] - Plastic products exports were valued at 677.6 billion yuan, showing a minor decline of 0.5% [1] Agricultural Products - Agricultural product exports totaled 670.21 billion yuan, marking a growth of 2% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :宏观情绪偏弱，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在68.48万吨，较上周增加2.17%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率84.05%，较上周期减少了0.46个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内茂名石化、中化泉州、上海石化等装置存在检修情况，市场存量检修天数增加，因此产能利用率环比上周窄幅下降。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.5%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.9%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.2%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 平均开工率较前期-0. ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - LLDPE futures prices continued to decline, with the basis in North China weakening again to a discount. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently. Due to the rebound of futures prices in the early stage of last week, upstream sellers reduced prices to sell goods, and the industry's willingness to hold goods was poor under the weakening demand, putting pressure on the basis. The US and Middle - East offers decreased, and shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1]. - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, the monomer segment rebounded slightly, and the supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane were compressed. The PE market was in a low - level oscillation. The downstream agricultural film demand weakened marginally, and the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to hold goods weakened, and the upstream offered discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical gradually started production, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 2. Directory Summary 2.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 6674, a daily decline of 1.51%. The trading volume was 449,625, and the open interest increased by 7,056. The 01 - contract basis was - 44 (compared with - 56 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 68 (compared with - 53 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,630 yuan/ton, 6,870 yuan/ton, and 6,800 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day [1]. 2.2 Spot News - The futures market continued to decline, and the North China LL basis weakened again to a discount. The number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. Due to the previous futures rebound and upstream selling at reduced prices, the demand weakened marginally, and the industry's willingness to hold goods was poor, putting pressure on the basis. The Middle - East and US offers decreased, and shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1]. 2.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, the monomer segment rebounded slightly, compressing the supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane. The PE market oscillated at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of middle and downstream enterprises to hold goods weakened, and the upstream offered discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical gradually started production, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 2.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show oscillatory trends today. The fundamentals of both are generally bearish, with oversupply situations. However, the strengthening propane prices are driving the market rebound. The downstream demand for both is relatively weak, and there are new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter. But they also have cost support [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decline from the previous month, indicating a drop in manufacturing prosperity. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November production plan, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based profits. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has faced short - term setbacks, and oil prices are oscillating strongly. The demand for agricultural films is weak, and packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs, with some areas improving. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6680 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 6, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 497,000 tons (-4000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating and rebounding. The fundamentals show oversupply, but the strengthening propane prices are driving the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand has declined. It is expected that PE will show an oscillatory trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In the supply - demand aspect, the demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current PP delivery spot price is 6350 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 565,000 tons (+19000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating and rebounding. The fundamentals show oversupply, and the strengthening propane prices are driving the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected that PP will show an oscillatory trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6680 (-60), and the 01 - contract price is 6674 (-102). The basis is 6. The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (unchanged) [8] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6350 (-10), and the 01 - contract price is 6287 (-72). The basis is 63. The warehouse receipt is 15,722 (-146) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025E. The production, net import, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends, and the import dependence has generally decreased [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been growing, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The production, net import, and apparent consumption have their own trends, and the import dependence has decreased [15]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, lacking upward drivers. The supply is expected to remain loose due to limited future device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, while the demand is approaching the end of the peak season with limited future growth potential. The LLDPE social inventory has a high absolute level, and the de - stocking expectation is weak, resulting in large supply - demand pressure [1]. - In the short term, PE is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The recent sharp decline in the PE disk is due to the weak performance of LLDPE spot, the lack of follow - up in the spot market during the previous disk rise, and the shift of the PE fundamentals to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [5]. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the sharp increase in the supply of non - standard products may be transmitted to LLDPE and suppress its price [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply: Future PE device maintenance is expected to be limited, and the restart of previously shut - down devices will increase the supply, keeping it loose. - Demand: The peak season of downstream demand is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining, with limited future demand growth [1]. - Inventory: The LLDPE social inventory is de - stocking, but the absolute level is still high, and the de - stocking expectation is weak under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. - Price range: L2601 is between 6600 - 6900. - Strategy suggestion: Consider selling call options [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Basis strategy: None for now. - Spread strategy: 1 - 5 reverse spread. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Short - term focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread [11]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton LDPE/EVA device is planned to start production soon [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - This week's spot market transactions were generally weak, but there was speculative replenishment by downstream enterprises when the disk dropped sharply on Thursday. - Attention should be paid to the Central Economic Work Conference on December 8th and the National Fiscal Work Conference [14][17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: After a rebound last week, the PE disk has entered a downward oscillating trend again. - Capital movement: The position of the 01 contract has decreased as it approaches delivery. There was no significant change in the top - five long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the top - five profitable seats increased slightly, and the long positions of the main profitable seats decreased this week, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [19]. - Basis structure: Due to the continuous pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price was suppressed, causing a sharp decline in the disk on Thursday and Friday, and the basis strengthened passively. As of Friday, the North China basis was 26 yuan/ton (up 85 from last week), the East China basis was 186 yuan/ton (up 95), and the South China basis was 176 yuan/ton (up 35) [23]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure because of the relatively optimistic market expectation for the future macro - situation and the limited production capacity expansion of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year, which may ease the supply - demand pressure of standard products [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakening of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [29]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: Although device maintenance has increased recently, the high existing production capacity and the commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter have made it difficult to relieve the supply pressure. Overseas supply - demand is also weak, and imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total supply. - Demand: At the end of the year, the agricultural film operating rate is expected to decline, weakening the rigid support on the demand side and intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [37]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 84.05% (- 0.46%). Some devices such as Dushanzi Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical entered maintenance this week, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. The operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance at the end of the year. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production early next year, indicating large supply pressure [43]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, and the offers from the US have decreased recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, in the long - run, PE imports are expected to be gradually replaced by domestic supply. - Export: Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for expanding export channels this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [52]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 44.3% (- 0.54%). Among them, the agricultural film operating rate is 48.02% (- 0.92%), the packaging film operating rate is 50.22% (- 0.48%), the pipe operating rate is 31.83% (0%), the injection molding operating rate is 49.55% (- 0.5%), the hollow operating rate is 38.38% (- 0.74%), and the drawing operating rate is 33.02% (- 1.1%). The comprehensive operating rate of PE has declined this week, especially the agricultural film production has entered the off - season with an obvious decline in the operating rate. The future growth space of PE demand is limited, intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [60].

南华期货聚丙烯产业周报 ∗ 远端交易预期 ——现货端悲观情绪形成拖累 戴一帆 投资咨询资格证号 Z0015428 研究助理 顾恒烨 期货从业资格证号 F0343348 联系邮箱：guhy@nawaa，com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前PP估值已经被压制较极端水平，PDH装置生产利润已经压至-800元/吨以下的年内低位，同时PP-丙烯价 差也降至200元/吨以下。但是在当前的低利润情况下并未看到下游有太多的负反馈出现，先前停车的巨正源 四条线也相继重启。因此，从当前PP的基本面情况来看，供应端，虽然检修量仍维持在偏高位，但暂未能看 到新的增量出现，后续供应预计基本持平或有小幅回升；需求端，本周现货成交情况缩量比较明显，下游补 库意愿偏低，且在前期PP盘面回升时，现货并未能出现回升，基差明显走弱。当前市场情绪仍然较为悲观， 导致盘面回升幅度受限。 PP-PDH现货利润-FEI季节性 source： 同花顺,wind,南华研究 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

Corporate Announcements - China Pacific Insurance announced that Vice President Yu Ze is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, but this will not affect the company's management [2] - Guanglian Aviation reported that its controlling shareholder and chairman Wang Zengduo has had his detention lifted, allowing him to resume his duties, with normal operations continuing [3] - China Communications Construction Company clarified that it bears no repayment or guarantee obligations related to overdue financial products linked to its controlling shareholder, and its operations remain normal [4] - Annie Co. is planning a change in control, with stock trading resuming on December 8, 2025, after a share transfer agreement is signed [5] - Guoao Technology announced that its actual controller is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [6] - ST Tianrui terminated its planned change in control due to a lack of consensus, with stock resuming trading on December 8, 2025 [7] Industry Developments - Double Star New Materials noted that leading companies in the BOPET industry have reached a consensus on production cuts to balance supply and demand, although the sustainability of long-term price increases remains uncertain [8] - First Venture received a notice of administrative penalty for failing to diligently supervise a bond project, resulting in fines and warnings, but this will not significantly impact its operations [12] - China Chemical announced that its nylon new materials project has reached full production capacity, enhancing efficiency and market competitiveness [14] Pharmaceutical Sector Updates - Hengrui Medicine reported that nine of its drugs have been included in the national medical insurance directory, with a total expected sales of approximately 8.66 billion yuan for 2024 [15] - Junshi Biosciences announced that its products have received new indications and have been included in the national medical insurance directory, enhancing market accessibility [16] - Huadong Medicine's subsidiary has had its products included in the national medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directories, aiding market promotion [17] - Aidi Pharmaceutical's two innovative HIV drugs have been renewed for inclusion in the national medical insurance directory, with specific pricing established [18] - ZhiXiang JinTai's monoclonal antibody has been included in the national medical insurance directory, which is expected to positively impact future sales [19] - Fosun Pharma announced multiple products have been newly included in the national medical insurance directory, which is anticipated to positively influence future performance [20] - Zejing Pharmaceutical's drug has been included in the national medical insurance directory, which will enhance affordability and market promotion [21] - Micron Biologics' product has been included in the national medical insurance directory, with no significant impact on current performance expected [22] Shareholder Commitments - Tianci Materials' controlling shareholder has committed not to reduce his shareholding in the company for six months, reflecting confidence in the company's future [23] Major Contracts - Guangqi Technology's subsidiary signed contracts worth 696 million yuan for the mass production of metamaterials, expected to impact the company's performance in 2026 [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the valuation of PE decreased slightly, the monomer rebounded slightly, and there were expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The cost - side support for PE was average, and the market supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. Q4 might gradually enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand, putting pressure on prices [6]. - The raw material - end crude oil fluctuated weakly, and the Northeast Asian ethylene rebounded by $5. The weighted profits of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene, and ethane were compressed, but no supply elasticity was observed. The downstream demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries provided some support, but considering the decline in agricultural film production and the increasing supply - side pressure at the end of the year, the market situation was not favorable [6]. - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods showed different trends, with oil - based and coal - based profits at relatively low levels [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Supply** - The total effective capacity growth rate was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18% in the first half of the year. The overall supply was loose, and the PE total start - up rate was 84.1% (- 0.4%). The subsequent supply was expected to decrease slightly, but overall, it would remain in a loose state. The import volume might increase significantly at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. - **Demand** - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, and the demand for packaging films had a short - term increase but was not strong enough to support the market. The start - up rates of other downstream industries were expected to decline slightly, and the demand for raw materials was expected to decrease [6]. - **Viewpoint** - The cost - side support for PE was general, and the supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. The supply pressure would gradually increase at the end of the year, and the inventory removal was not smooth. The market was expected to enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand in Q4, with prices under pressure [6]. - **Valuation** - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods were compressed to varying degrees [6]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, it was recommended to short on rebounds. The upper pressure level for the 01 contract was 6900, and the lower support level was 6600. Cross - period and cross - variety trading were not recommended for the time being [6]. 3.2 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price Spread** - The futures price decreased, the basis in East and South China was relatively strong, while that in North China first weakened and then strengthened slightly after the Friday's decline in the futures price. The monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased as the basis strengthened [9][13]. - **External Price** - The CIF price in China decreased by $5 - 10. The price in the US stopped falling and stabilized, the low - pressure injection molding was weak, the LD in Europe recovered, and the high - pressure in Southeast Asia had a relatively high price ratio [20]. - **Import Profit** - The import window was compressed, the non - standard import profit was at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, and the LD import profit was at a relatively high level within the year. The US inventory clearance pressure was relieved, and the subsequent import volume might remain high at the beginning of the year, but new import orders were relatively cautious [27]. - **Non - Standard Price Spread** - The non - standard price spread of HD film was relatively high due to tight supply, which might attract some petrochemical plants to switch production, and supply pressure might be realized in the middle and late November. The LD price spread started to weaken month - on - month [30]. - **Upstream Price** - Crude oil fluctuated at a low level, naphtha was flat, ethylene continued to rebound, and coal prices were relatively strong [35]. - **Production Profit** - The overall production profit was compressed, especially in the monomer segment. The profits of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes decreased slightly [41]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Capacity** - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, the capacity addition was limited [45]. - **Existing Start - up** - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base increased, the total supply increased significantly, the start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume was temporarily the same as the previous year [46]. - **Standard Product Supply** - The LLDPE capacity was intensively put into production, the production ratio was at a neutral level, and the supply was expected to increase in December as the maintenance scale decreased compared to November [51]. - **Maintenance Plan** - The subsequent maintenance scale was expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 was temporarily lower than the same period last year [53]. - **Import and Export** - The domestic production increased significantly, and the import volume was at a low level compared to the same period. The import volume might increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The import of standard products was at a low level, and the import of LD was the same as last year. The Middle East sources from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased slightly in October [56][59][62]. - **Inventory** - The supply gradually recovered, the upstream actively reduced inventory, and some downstream enterprises placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continued to decline, and the middle and downstream mainly consumed their previous inventories [64][69]. - **Downstream Demand** - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, the packaging film industry's start - up rate was the same as the previous year, the raw material procurement enthusiasm was limited, the profit was at a high level, and the orders were slightly lower than the same period. The demand for PE pipes improved slightly in Q4, and the raw material inventory was slightly lower than the same period. Overall, the downstream demand showed signs of marginal decline [71][78][84][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 5, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film entering the end of the peak season and orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and the trading atmosphere of plastics is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%. The position increased by 7056 lots to 393540 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price range from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8390 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6880 - 7580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 5, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: The Friday's petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fluctuated around 63 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 720 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...