每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 302012 日星期四 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指 26,000 點上落：聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平 衡轉變可能需要調整政策立場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期一度升 溫。惟聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年減息空間少於預期。美國關稅 寬限期即將在 11 月屆滿，中美進入新一輪角力期，大市波動性加劇。內 地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自 強，方向符合預期，後續留意其他重要會議以跟進政策落地情況。基於短 期內港股企業盈利難有明顯改善，中美貿易戰局勢反覆多變，及美聯儲減 息路徑未明，在中美元首會面前，料大市走勢未有明確方向，恒指 26,000 點上落。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 李芷瑩 edith.li@cinda.com.hk ➢ 中海油(0883)、比亞迪(1211)、工行(1398)、國壽(2628)等業績； 日本、歐洲央行議息；南韓 APEC 峰會中美元首會面； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 聯儲局減息0.25厘 12月1日停止縮表； 鮑威爾:聯儲局12月再次減息並非板上釘釘； 特朗普預告 減 ...

9月份 社会消费品 同比增长 零售总额 3.0% 4.20万亿元 前三季度 社会消费品 同比增长 零售总额 4.5% 36.59万亿元 增速比去年全年加快1.0个百分点 ⊙ 居民人均消费支出2.16万元，同比增长4.6% ● 最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达53.5% 频 组数据透视 我国多样化消费潜力持续释放 编者按 消费是拉动经济增长的"主引擎" 也是人民美好生活需要的直接体现。今年 以来,我国深入实施提振消费专项行动, 推进消费品以旧换新,推动服务消费高质 量发展,开展"购在中国"系列活动,持 续释放多样化消费潜力。一组数据来看。 消费主引擎作用进一步凸显 消费品以旧换新持续显效 9月份 以旧换新相关商品销售保持较快增长 限额以上单位通讯器材、家具、 文化办公用品零售额分别同比增长 16.2%、16.2%和6.2% 前三季度 限额以上单位家具类同比增长21.3% 文化办公用品类商品零售额增长19.9% 通讯器材类商品零售额增长20.5% 服务消费保持较快增长 前三季度 服务零售额同比增长5.2% 增速比商品零售额快0.6个百分点 其中 文体休闲 通讯信息 旅游咨询 交通出行 服务 服务 租赁服务 服务 ...

Group 1 - Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi predicts that in over 20 years, all cars will be fully autonomous, potentially reducing the number of private vehicles and improving safety metrics due to fewer errors compared to human drivers [1] - Khosrowshahi emphasizes that society must consider whether human driving should be allowed on open roads as autonomous driving technology matures, suggesting that human driving will eventually be less safe than automated systems [1] - The discussion comes at a time when various companies are launching autonomous taxi services and introducing autonomous driving systems for private vehicles, highlighting the ongoing developments in the industry [1] Group 2 - Waymo has expanded its autonomous vehicles to multiple cities but maintains a cautious approach regarding business expansion, often opting for strategic contraction when deploying autonomous taxis [2] - Uber has partnered with Waymo to manage Waymo's autonomous fleet in Austin, marking Uber's first integration of fully driverless ride-hailing services into its app [2]

Group 1 - Shanghai plans to accelerate the integration of AI in manufacturing, aiming to implement smart applications in 3,000 manufacturing enterprises over three years [3][5] - The initiative includes the establishment of 10 industry benchmark models, 100 benchmark smart products, and 100 demonstration application scenarios [3][5] - The AI industry in Shanghai has seen significant growth, with a scale exceeding 270 billion yuan and a growth rate of over 30% in the first half of the year [3][4] Group 2 - Companies like Yikaida Technology are exploring the integration of AI with industrial automation, aiming to create standardized solutions for various manufacturing processes [4] - Shanghai General Welding Machine Co., Ltd. has developed an intelligent welding workstation that utilizes AI for enhanced precision in welding tasks [4][5] - The "one industry, one policy" approach is being adopted to tailor AI implementation strategies based on the specific needs of different sectors, such as electronics and automotive [5][6] Group 3 - The initiative emphasizes the deployment of industrial robots in high-risk and repetitive tasks to improve efficiency and safety in sectors like electronics and automotive [7] - Companies like Shanghai ZaiKe Intelligent Technology are leveraging AI to enhance the capabilities of industrial robots, thereby transforming production processes [7][8] - New products, such as the RuiKe MR73A and MR73B robots, have been launched, showcasing advancements in mobility and environmental adaptability [8]

短期市场焦点转向美联储12月政策路径及企业财报。若经济数据证实就业市场韧性，降息预期或进一步 降温；科技股需警惕估值压力，中美会晤进展及关税政策动向仍是影响风险偏好的关键变量。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 美股三大指数涨跌不一，纳指收涨0.55%，道指微跌0.16%，标普500指数基本持平。科技股表现分化， 英伟达涨约3%，市值突破5万亿美元；苹果、特斯拉小幅上涨。美联储如期降息25个基点，但鲍威尔表 态12月降息"远未成定局"，引发市场波动。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.03%，个股分化显著。阿里巴巴涨近2%，哔哩哔哩涨超1%。商品市场 中，黄金期货一度跌破3940美元/盎司；铜价因供应紧张逼近历史高位，伦铝创三年新高。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.55%, the Dow Jones slightly declining by 0.16%, and the S&P 500 remaining mostly flat [1] - Notable performance in technology stocks included Nvidia, which rose approximately 3% and surpassed a market capitalization of $5 trillion; Apple and Tesla also saw slight increases [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Chairman Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is "far from a done deal," leading to market volatility [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a slight decline of 0.03%, with significant individual stock performance variations; Alibaba rose nearly 2%, while Bilibili increased by over 1% [1] Commodity Market - In the commodities market, gold futures briefly fell below $3940 per ounce; copper prices approached historical highs due to supply constraints, and aluminum reached a three-year high [1] Market Focus - Short-term market attention is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path in December and upcoming corporate earnings reports; if economic data confirms labor market resilience, expectations for further rate cuts may diminish [1] - Technology stocks should be cautious of valuation pressures, while developments in U.S.-China meetings and tariff policies remain key variables influencing risk appetite [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in public perception and trust towards Xiaomi's automotive products, particularly the YU7 model, leading to increased customer dissatisfaction and a drop in stock prices. Group 1: Brand Reputation and Customer Sentiment - Xiaomi's brand reputation has deteriorated, resulting in a negative impact on its car owners, who now face relentless criticism and skepticism regarding product reliability [3][12][30] - Recent data indicates a high order cancellation rate for the Xiaomi YU7, with some models experiencing a postponement rate of up to 30% [3][12] - Xiaomi's stock price has dropped nearly 30% from its peak earlier in the year, reflecting investor concerns over the brand's reputation [3][12] Group 2: Customer Experiences and Reactions - Some customers, like Lin Lei, have expressed disappointment after initially being excited about their YU7 orders, leading to a decision to cancel due to ongoing issues and lack of communication from the company [6][7] - Other customers have reported feeling misled by marketing claims, such as exaggerated range and features, which has contributed to a sense of betrayal among early adopters [12][18] - Despite the negative sentiment, a subset of customers continues to defend the brand, sharing positive experiences to counteract the prevailing criticism [6][14][18] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi's entry into the automotive market has been met with skepticism, and the company is now facing increased scrutiny as it attempts to establish itself among established competitors [30][31] - The article highlights the challenges Xiaomi faces in maintaining its market position, as customer expectations rise alongside its growing brand presence [30][31] - The automotive sector's competitive nature means that Xiaomi must address quality and reliability issues to regain consumer trust and stabilize its market share [30][31]

前9月国有企业利润总额下降1.6% 10 月 29 日，财政部发布 1-9 月全国国有及国有控股企业经济运行情况。数据显示， 1-9 月，国有企业营业总收入 613290.5 亿元，同比增长 0.9% ；利润总额 31670.3 亿元，同比下降 1.6% 。 1-9 月，国有企业应交税费 44145.4 亿元，同比增长 0.5% 。 9 月末，国有企业资产负债率 65.2% ，同比上升 0.2 个百分点。 此前国家统计局公布数据显示， 1-9 月，全国规模以上工业企业实现营业收入 102.08 万亿元，同比增长 2.4% ；实现利润总额 53732.0 亿元， 同比增长 3.2% 。 9 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 21.6% 。（综合财政部网站） 点击上图▲立即收听 ｜点评｜ 相较于前 8 个月数据，国有企业营收增幅有所扩大，利润降幅进一步收窄，整体业绩得到改善。其中，国有工业企业发挥着压舱石作 用。低基数效应下， 9 月规上工业企业利润实现较高增长，国有工业企业利润降幅显著收窄，或也带动国有企业整体盈利修复。不过，与民营 部门相比，国企的复苏力度仍待提高。外部需求走弱与传统行业增长失速等多重压力下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resurgence of private enterprises in China, driven by supportive government policies and a focus on technological innovation, particularly in AI, which is expected to enhance market valuations and attract significant foreign investment [2][3][25]. Group 1: Private Enterprises and Economic Contribution - Private enterprises contribute over 60% to GDP, account for more than 70% of technological innovation, and provide over 80% of urban employment, positioning them as a crucial growth engine for the Chinese economy [6]. - Since 2022, profits and return on equity for private enterprises have shown significant growth, indicating an increase in capital expenditure and investment willingness [4][6]. - The 2025 "Top 500 Private Enterprises" list reflects the strength of private companies in terms of scale, operational efficiency, innovation capability, and social responsibility [4][39]. Group 2: R&D and Innovation - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's R&D spending is projected to reach 3.6 trillion RMB in 2024, maintaining the second position globally, with private enterprises leading in R&D contributions [7][10]. - Private enterprises have outpaced state-owned enterprises in profit and revenue growth over the past decade, contributing approximately half of the new capital expenditure and 60% of the increase in R&D investment [7][10]. - The "Top 500 Private Enterprises" list indicates that companies in the computer, communication, internet, and automotive sectors are the main drivers of innovation [10]. Group 3: AI and Growth Drivers - The AI sector is expected to significantly boost the investment enthusiasm of private enterprises, with projected profit growth for tech-related private companies expected to exceed non-tech firms by about 15 percentage points in 2024-2025 [18][19]. - The anticipated widespread application of AI could contribute an additional 2.5% annual growth to the earnings per share (EPS) of listed companies in China over the next decade [19]. - The article highlights a positive feedback loop where AI drives growth, which in turn fuels further investment [26]. Group 4: International Expansion - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes high-level opening-up, indicating a shift towards more aggressive international expansion for Chinese enterprises [27]. - The 2025 "Top 500 Private Enterprises" report shows that overseas revenue for these companies reached 3.19 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.74%, significantly outpacing overall revenue growth [30]. - By 2024, nearly 20% of private enterprises' total revenue is expected to come from overseas, reflecting a shift towards high-value products and services [31]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The concentration of market capitalization among leading companies in China is expected to increase, with private enterprises in sectors like automotive and renewable energy becoming market leaders [35][37]. - The "Top 10 Private Enterprises" in China, as identified by Goldman Sachs, collectively hold a market value of 1.6 trillion USD, representing 42% of the MSCI China Index, with projected profit growth of 13% over the next two years [37]. - The 2025 "Top 500 Private Enterprises" list shows a total revenue of 43.05 trillion RMB, with a net profit of 1.8 trillion RMB, indicating an improvement in growth quality [39].

完整早报音频，请点击标题下方小耳机收听 【宗馥莉罕见公开露面！多人确认：她没有继续任职于娃哈哈】 10月29日，据"宏胜—成长天地"微信公众号，宏 胜集团片区工作会议在杭州顺利举行。会议系统梳理2025年集团在生产经营、技术创新、安全管理等方面取得的新 进展新成效，深入分析当前发展形势，统筹谋划下一阶段重点任务。 宏胜集团总裁宗馥莉出席会议并作工作部 署，各片区总经理及相关部门负责人参加会议。"她（宗馥莉）还是宏胜总裁，没有继续任职于娃哈哈。"10月29 日，多名接近娃哈哈人士透露，重新回到宏胜饮料集团有限公司（以下简称"宏胜集团"）总部上班的宗馥莉，并未 恢复娃哈哈董事长的职务，而娃哈哈方面对此未予回应。 有娃哈哈内部人士告知每经记者，当前娃哈哈集团行政 管理员工基本和宏胜集团的员工在位于杭州萧山的宏胜集团总部办公，两家公司基本是一套班子。（ 每日经济新 闻） 【创造历史！英伟达成为首家市值突破5万亿美元的上市公司】 人工智能芯片制造商英伟达公司股价开盘上涨 3.2%，市值突破5万亿美元大关，达到5.05万亿美元，成为全球首家跨越这一里程碑的上市公司。其市值从4万亿 增至5万亿仅用113天，远超此前3万亿到 ...