Core Insights - The initial Labubu was auctioned for 1.08 million, highlighting its perceived value similar to luxury brands like Rolex and Moutai, which are mass-produced industrial products that create scarcity through controlled supply [1] - The revenue for Pop Mart in 2024 is projected to be 13 billion, while Rolex's revenue is expected to be 85.7 billion, indicating a significant gap, yet Pop Mart shows a stronger premium in the secondary market [1] - Labubu and Moutai serve as status symbols for different demographics, with Labubu appealing to younger consumers and Moutai to middle-aged individuals, both having high resale value and market demand [2] Market Dynamics - Labubu can be gifted to superiors discreetly, maintaining a high value while being perceived as a simple plastic toy, which can be easily explained away if questioned [3] - The perception of aesthetics in luxury items can evolve over time, as individuals become more familiar with certain products, transforming initial judgments into appreciation [3][5] - Consensus around luxury items is shaped by a small group of influencers, which then permeates to the broader public, creating a shared understanding of value [4][6]

Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with discussions led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, focusing on key economic issues and reaching a consensus on measures to implement the important agreements from the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1] - In May, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% [1] - Pop Mart's LABUBU series products are experiencing high demand, leading to tight factory capacity, despite the company's earlier capacity expansion efforts [1] - Fifteen major automotive manufacturers, including BYD, FAW Group, Geely, and Xiaomi, have committed to controlling supplier payment terms within 60 days, resulting in a significant rise in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for automotive and parts sectors [1] Group 2 - North Mining Technology has seen a three-day stock increase, with its static and rolling P/E ratios exceeding the industry average [2] - Suzhou Longjie has also experienced a three-day stock increase, with its TTM P/E ratio above the industry median [2] - Nanjing Commercial Travel has confirmed that it has no undisclosed significant information [2] - Gongchuang Lawn has shown significant irrational stock price fluctuations over seven consecutive trading days [2]

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.06.03-2025.06.06。 短期以稳应变，关注银行等偏防守板块。关税谈判阶段预期反复的概率仍然不小，经济下行压力 有所回升，风险偏好或难以大幅回升，且在有中央汇金托底的背景下，大盘权重下行空间相对有 限，尤其银行等抛压较小的板块预计将继续保持稳健。微盘股指数、成交占比、IM贴水呈"三 高"局面，尽管短期仍可能强势，但波动风险加大，一旦出现拐点则调整风险不小。因此建议耐心 等待科技、医药、服务消费（旅游、文娱、体育等）、新消费（玩具、宠物、谷子、时尚美容 等）调整后更具性价比的布局机会。 商品市场方面， 上周，贵金属、有色板块趋势强度大幅上升，能化、黑色板块延续其趋势性；基 差动量方面，黑色、贵金属板块基差动量快速上升，能化、有色板块基差动量快速下降；波动率 方面，贵金属、黑色板块波动率迅速上升；流动性方面，能化板块流动性较强，其余板块流动性 较为一般。 期权市场方面， 从隐含波动率水平来看，端午后上证50与中证1000隐波无明显趋势，上证50相比 中证10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinghui Entertainment has gained significant market attention due to its involvement in multiple hot business sectors, including IP, football, and toys, leading to a substantial increase in its stock price [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On June 11, Xinghui Entertainment's stock surged by 13.43%, reaching an intraday increase of nearly 15%, following a cumulative rise of over 30% in the last three trading days [1] - The company has become the first A-share listed company to hold a controlling stake (99.59%) in a European top five league football club, specifically the Espanyol Football Club [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Xinghui Entertainment's business encompasses game development and operation, toy research, production, sales, and football club management [1] - The company is leveraging its position in the football industry to promote collaboration between Chinese and Spanish football, including the establishment of the Shanghai Football Academy to nurture local talent [2] Group 3: Market Rumors and Clarifications - There were rumors that Xinghui Entertainment is a manufacturer for the LABUBU plush toys of Pop Mart, which the company has denied, stating its toy business focuses on remote control models, alloy models, building block models, and outdoor toys [3] - The company clarified that it does not currently engage in digital currency or stablecoin-related businesses but will monitor developments in this area for potential future integration [3]

每经编辑｜何小桃 LABUBU的热潮还在持续。 6月10日，一款初代藏品级薄荷色的LABUBU最终以108万元的价格拍卖成交。 在二手交易平台，一些抽中概率较小的"隐藏款"和品牌联名款价格翻数倍，一些款式被炒到万元以上。此外，LABUBU的火热也带火了"高仿"工厂，真假 LABUBU鱼龙混杂，有卖家把仿版当正品卖，也有卖家标注"复刻版，批量消费品，苛求完美者绕道"。 摩根大通发布的研报指出， LABUBU 5月搜索热度已超过Hello Kitty。多家机构也将泡泡玛特的目标价调高至300港元以上。 近日，摩根士丹利分析师Dustin Wei及其团队发布最新研报称，北美和欧洲市场的扩张将是泡泡玛特未来增长的关键引擎。基于美国消费者的购买力及市 场规模，预计北美市场销售额将在2028-2029年达到中国市场水平。 Lagogo卖出上万个 LABUBU持续爆火，不仅仅是官方渠道线上线下渠道供不应求，一些仿冒工厂开始出现产能不足，社交平台上陆陆续续晒出自己买到 的"Lafufu"、"Lababa"、"Lagogo"等。 据红星资本局报道，在批发平台上，有多个厂家正在生产、销售高仿版LABUBU。有厂家告诉红星资本局， ...

Group 1: Kidult Economy Overview - The term "Kidult" combines "kid" and "adult," referring to adults aged 20 to 50 who are interested in traditional children's hobbies, leading to the emergence of a unique "Kidult economy" [2] - The Kidult economy is driven by two main factors: the need for stress relief and the desire for identity recognition among adults, with social media playing a significant role in sharing experiences and collections [2] - Market data shows that while overall toy sales in the U.S. declined by 8% in 2023, the adult consumer segment grew by 8%, accounting for approximately $6.7 billion in sales, demonstrating strong resilience [2] Group 2: Kidult Economy in China - In China, the Kidult economy is primarily driven by Generation Z and Millennials, becoming one of the fastest-growing segments in the consumer market [4] - A survey conducted by JD.com revealed that 56.8% of adults purchased toys for themselves, and 51.1% planned to celebrate Children's Day for themselves, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [4] Group 3: Emotional Economy - The Kidult economy is a branch of the broader "emotional economy," which emphasizes personalized, differentiated, and emotional consumption experiences, contrasting with traditional consumption focused on functionality [6] - According to a report, 42% of surveyed consumers indicated that their shopping motivation includes "pleasing oneself" or "enhancing mood," highlighting the rise of emotional consumption [6] Group 4: Impact on Businesses and Industries - The emotional value consumption presents both challenges and opportunities for businesses, potentially enhancing operational capabilities, consumer guidance, and profitability through increased consumer loyalty [6] - The emotional economy manifests in three main forms: "service + consumption value," "IP + self-pleasure consumption," and "social + pleasing others consumption," affecting various industries such as dining, retail, and cosmetics [6][9] - The emotional consumption market in China is projected to exceed 20 trillion yuan, indicating a significant shift towards mainstream acceptance of emotional economy concepts [9]

Core Insights - The report by Morgan Stanley highlights the exponential growth of Pop Mart in North America and Europe, driven by viral marketing and social media, with sales expected to rise from $3.6 billion in 2025 to $6 billion by 2027, making it one of the fastest-growing consumer brands globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Morgan Stanley raised Pop Mart's target price from HKD 224 to HKD 302, reflecting a 35% increase while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [3]. - The overseas growth of Pop Mart is significantly attributed to the "social media tailwind effect," with products like Labubu becoming viral sensations after being showcased by celebrities [4][6]. Group 2: Product Strategy - The Labubu series, launched at the end of 2023, ignited market enthusiasm and is expected to contribute 28% of revenue in 2024, with a fourth generation of products anticipated by late 2025 or early 2026 [7]. - Other IPs like Molly and Dimoo are also performing well, indicating that Pop Mart's diverse IP matrix provides broader growth opportunities [9]. Group 3: New Business Ventures - Pop Mart is expanding beyond toys with new ventures like Pop Land (an IP-themed amusement park) and POPOP (fashion jewelry), which are seen as significant long-term value drivers [10]. - The Pop Land project in Beijing has already turned a profit, with annual revenue projected between RMB 300 million to 500 million, and plans for expansion are underway [10][11]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The North American and European markets are expected to be key growth engines for Pop Mart, with North American sales projected to reach levels comparable to the Chinese market by 2028-2029 [12]. - Starting from mid-April 2024, Pop Mart will increase the pricing of new products in North America by 80-100%, with an expected gross margin of 75%, showcasing its global potential despite potential tariff pressures [14].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showed strong fluctuations on June 11, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) rising over 1.4% during the day and closing up 0.96%, with trading volume exceeding 21 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, BYD Co. Ltd. rose over 4%, while other notable gainers included Zhongsheng Holdings, Yueda Group, Geely Automobile, Bilibili-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and Tongcheng Travel [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "618" shopping festival is driving a new wave of consumer enthusiasm, supported by the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and promotions from major e-commerce platforms, creating a synergistic effect [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that as of May 31, the five major categories of consumer goods under the trade-in policy have generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [1] - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation, the Chinese consumer market is currently characterized by "consumption stratification," with consumers willing to pay for "quality low prices" and "justifiable premiums" [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience since June, with significant inflows from southbound funds, totaling over 660 billion HKD year-to-date, surpassing 80% of last year's total [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has seen a 0.44% increase, reaching a historical high, and has expanded its shares by 106.69% since its listing [1] - Dongxing Securities indicates that ongoing policy support is expected to increase the scale of long-term funds entering the market, favoring dividend assets for their stable returns [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) offers the lowest market fee rate at 0.2%, enhancing cost efficiency for investors [2] - The ETF's structure includes a weight limit of 5% per stock to mitigate risks and avoid "dividend yield traps," focusing on mature sectors like finance and energy [2] - A new off-market fund linked to the ETF is set to be issued from June 13 to June 26, providing investors with additional options for long-term investments in quality dividend assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of industries and the necessity for policy innovation in response to economic changes since 2022, highlighting the divergence in economic indicators and the impact of external factors on domestic industries [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Transformation and New Challenges - Since 2022, the economic transformation has entered a "new stage," characterized by a downward trend in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, with growth rates for real estate-related industries dropping below 2% [7][24]. - The pressure in this new stage is increasingly focused on terminal demand, leading to a decline in PPI while CPI remains weak, indicating a shift of excess capacity to downstream sectors [13][24]. - The transformation has resulted in a significant decline in the growth rate of traditional industries, similar to trends observed from 2011 to 2015, which ultimately stabilized the economy [7][13]. Group 2: Policy Innovation - The effectiveness of traditional policy frameworks has diminished, necessitating comprehensive policy innovation to address the new economic landscape [1][35]. - By the end of 2024, a comprehensive optimization of the policy framework was initiated, focusing on supply-side structural reforms and enhancing the targeting of structural policies [35][42]. - The new policy framework emphasizes high-quality development, high-level openness, and sustainable growth, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [3][121]. Group 3: External Shocks as Accelerators - External shocks, particularly during the tariff phases, have accelerated domestic industrial upgrades, with significant shifts in trade structures observed [64][65]. - The first phase of tariffs led to a notable increase in high-value-added industries, while the second phase primarily impacted low-value-added consumer goods, which were already experiencing significant internal competition [64][101]. - The export structure has improved, with a decrease in the proportion of exports to the U.S. and an increase in exports to non-U.S. economies, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [83][90]. Group 4: Focus on "Anti-Internal Competition" and Service Sector - The new policy framework is expected to focus on "anti-internal competition" and the service sector, which can absorb structural employment pressures during the transformation process [4][121]. - The service sector has become the largest employment absorption area, yet it faces significant supply shortages, indicating a need for increased support and demand stimulation [4][121]. - By the second half of 2025, the main macroeconomic indicators may experience a "strong-weak conversion," with potential downward pressure on manufacturing and positive improvements in service sector investments and consumption [4][121].