Group 1: Market Overview - The macro sentiment has improved, leading to a systematic rebound in commodities and valuation recovery[1] - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed at 161.76, up 1.41%, with a net capital inflow of 4.012 billion[2] Group 2: Silicon Iron Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron is reported at 5350-5500 CNY/ton, while 75 silicon iron is at 5850-6000 CNY/ton[1] - Hebei Steel's procurement of 75B silicon iron in May increased by 20.5% to 2135 tons compared to April[1] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts remained stable at 19048, with a total of 96248 tons[1] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Analysis - Manganese ore prices are on the rise, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 33.5-34 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon prices have slightly increased, with northern reports at 5600-5700 CNY/ton and southern reports at 5650-5750 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 587 to 118693, with a total of 602935 tons[7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The 2509 manganese silicon contract closed at 5864, up 0.62%, with a net capital inflow of 12.27 million[8] - The daily K-line for manganese silicon shows a small upward trend, indicating potential upward momentum[8] Group 5: Strategic Insights - The industry is experiencing significant losses, leading to substantial production cuts[4] - The supply-demand mismatch is narrowing, accelerating inventory reduction[4]

仓单 现货 盘面 品种 项目 铁合金早报 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5400 5400 | 0 0 | 50 -50 | 5660 5750 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5612 5576 | -24 -30 | 182 68 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5500 | 0 | -50 | 5830 | 05合约 | 5512 | -106 | 86 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5536 | -22 | 84 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 48 | 24 | -132 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5660 | 0 | 10 | | 1-5月差 | 64 | 76 | -18 | | 贸易商价 | 天津#72 | 5800 | 50 | 10 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

2025 年 5 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，硅铁宽幅震荡 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 | | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货研究 锰硅2507-硅铁2507 160 -32 元/吨 锰硅2509-硅铁2509 274 -34 元/吨 1、铁合金在线：5 月 13 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5350-5400，宁夏 5350-5400，青海 5350-5450，甘肃 5400-5450（+50），内蒙 5350-5450；75#硅铁：陕西 5900-6000，宁夏 5850-5950，青海 5900-5950 （+50），甘肃 5950-6000，内蒙 5850-5900（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1020- 1050，75#1100-1120（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#南北主流价格在 5550-5750 元/吨（+100）区 间。（现金出厂含税报价） | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | ...

如何应对价格波动成为产业企业关注的重点，这也是相关期货、期权品种上市后助力实体经济发展的具体要求。 期货具有价格发现功能。市场上集中了大量信息，不同的交易主体从不同角度对信息进行解读，并通过公开竞价形成未来商品价格走势。 2021年能耗双控政策发布后，铁合金工厂、期现贸易商等在预计供需可能阶段性错配的情况下，在期货市场提前储备库存。 期现结合操作中最常见的是期货套期保值。随着铁合金期货市场认知度和接受度逐渐提高，参与的产业企业类型也日益多样化。目前，参与期货市场的主体 已从铁合金工厂、期现商扩展至锰矿贸易商、钢厂原料采购部门等。 图为国内粗钢年产量 铁合金工厂和下游钢厂的分布情况导致部分地区供需不匹配，且在淡旺季交替阶段，供需格局也会发生变化。期货交割库的设立则保障了各地区能以合理价 格获取库存，一定程度上缓解了时空价差过大的问题。 期货也有助于提升铁合金产业链在国际市场的话语权。锰矿在锰硅行业的重要性无需赘述，而我国锰矿对外依存度高达90%，供应端常年被海外寡头垄断， 国内只能被动接受海外矿山报价。这种情况下，进口贸易商大多处于盈亏平衡状态。当锰矿供应端出现问题时，对华报价的非理性上涨压缩了铁合金工厂、 进 ...

Report Date - The report date is May 13, 2025 [3] Price - The latest prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 ferrosilicon is 5400, with a daily change of 50 and a weekly change of -50 [1] - Price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from 2021 to 2025 are shown in multiple charts, including market prices, contract closing prices, and basis differences [2][6] Supply - Production - related data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, such as the monthly and weekly production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China, and the production of silicomanganese in China [4][6] - Capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are presented [4] Demand - Demand - related data include the estimated and actual monthly production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7] - The export volume and average price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also shown [4][7] Inventory - Inventory data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the weekly inventory of 60 sample enterprises of ferrosilicon in different regions, and the daily inventory - related data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory + effective forecasts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [5][7] - The inventory average available days of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and in China are presented [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions for iron alloys, the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi, and the prices of various manganese ores [5][6] - Profit - related data such as the production profit of semi - coke in China, the profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicomanganese in different regions are provided [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 12, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5866, up 1.80%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5550. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, most of the additional tariffs imposed on goods since April 2 have been cancelled, leading to a significant recovery in the commodity market. Ferroalloys have negative production profits, low production enthusiasm on the supply side, and rising port inventories of imported manganese ore. The overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month, and downstream hot metal production may peak and decline. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the market should be treated as oscillating. [2] - On May 12, the silicon - iron 2507 contract closed at 5636, up 1.55%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron rose by 50 to 5510. From January to April this year, the national railway completed 194.7 billion yuan in fixed - asset investment, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Ferroalloys have negative production profits, and the maintenance of large factories in Ningxia affects market sentiment. The downstream metal magnesium market price has rebounded, but the overall demand for steel is still weak. The market should be treated as oscillating. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese - Silicon) main contract closing price was 5,866 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; SF (Silicon - Iron) main contract closing price was 5,636 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan. - SM futures contract positions decreased by 13,582 to 621,718 hands; SF futures contract positions increased by 7,963 to 481,715 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon decreased by 8,516 to - 27,836 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon - iron decreased by 4,344 to - 25,370 hands. - The SM 9 - 5 contract spread increased by 12 to 80 yuan/ton; the SF 9 - 5 contract spread decreased by 10 to - 60 yuan/ton. - SM warehouse receipts decreased by 881 to 118,816; SF warehouse receipts decreased by 32 to 18,876. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 remained at 5,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,610 yuan/ton. - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 remained at 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,520 yuan/ton. - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 rose by 50 to 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,510 yuan/ton. - The manganese - silicon index average decreased by 105.42 to 5,497 yuan/ton; the SF main contract basis decreased by 104 to - 126 yuan/ton. - The SM main contract basis decreased by 108 to - 316 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block in Tianjin Port remained at 32 yuan/ton - degree; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) remained at 210 yuan/ton. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke remained at 1,070 yuan/ton; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) remained at 670 yuan/ton. - Manganese ore port inventories increased by 23.10 to 394.80 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.21 to 37.53%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate increased by 1.78 to 32.53%. - Manganese - silicon supply decreased by 10,780 to 172,025 tons; silicon - iron supply increased by 3,900 to 102,900 tons. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventories increased by 25,300 to 207,100 tons; silicon - iron manufacturers' inventories decreased by 0.99 to 7.37 million tons. - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon decreased by 1.17 to 15.44 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron decreased by 0.82 to 15.44 days. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon in the five major steel types decreased by 2,350 to 125,861 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in the five major steel types decreased by 224.10 to 20,336.30 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.29 to 84.64%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.08 to 92.11%. - The monthly crude steel output increased by 16.8722 million tons to 92.8414 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Ningxia Yinhe added maintenance for 2 45,000 - kVA silicon - iron furnaces, reducing daily output by 200 - 300 tons. - At the end of 2024, China's bond market balance was 177 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. Bond financing accounted for 40% of the incremental social financing scale, and the bond trading volume reached 460 trillion yuan. - At the end of 2024, the global public debt exceeded 100 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 93% of the global GDP, and is expected to rise to about 100% in 2030. - From 2012 - 2022, the average annual growth rate of the equity value of state - owned enterprises was 13.8%. [2]

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction has eased. The cost - side electricity price change needs further tracking, and the semi - coke price has temporarily stabilized. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5650 in the long - term and 5500 - 5900 in the short - term [4][8]. - For silicomanganese, the short - term price will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The bottom support of the futures price is strengthening as the increase of warehouse receipts stops and turns down. The supply - demand gap continues to narrow, and the manganese ore on the cost side is also gradually stabilizing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the rebound height depends on whether there are macro - level benefits. The main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 5900, and the short - term reference range is 5700 - 6000 [4][114]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract fell 1.54% (- 86) and closed at 5482 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and quotations from manufacturers and trading areas also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79% from the previous period. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 102,900 tons [8][31]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5681 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 231 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5460 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 110 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.4 Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a decrease of 2.00% from last week. The non - steel demand for magnesium metal was strong, but the downstream procurement was still cautious [8]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of May 8, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,700 tons, a decrease of 11.83% from the previous period [8]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract rose 0.7% (+ 40) and closed at 5758 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and trading areas showed different changes [114]. 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week. The daily output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1540 tons, and the weekly output was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week [114]. 3.2.3 Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 229 yuan/ton; the production cost in Guangxi was 6348 yuan/ton [114]. 3.2.4 Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipment of South African manganese ore increased by 40.06% week - on - week, while the shipments of Australian and Gabonese manganese ore decreased. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different sources also changed [114]. 3.2.5 Manganese Ore Inventory - As of April 30, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 3671,000 tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons from the previous period [114]. 3.2.6 Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese from five major steel types was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate, and steel mill profitability all showed certain changes [114]. 3.2.7 Inventory - As of May 8, the national inventory was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons from the previous period, with different changes in different regions [114].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报5.6-5.9 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 原料端，锰矿市场成交冷清，现货价格持续偏弱运行。供应端，目前硅锰厂减停产计划仍存，盘面偏强震荡，硅锰现 货价格止跌企稳。需求端，下游钢厂多等待主流钢招进场，市场散单成交冷清，市场多持观望态度。 下周行情预测： 硅锰市场供需双弱，现货价格偏弱运行，预计下周锰硅价格偏弱为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07-01 2024-02-01 2024 ...