Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is limited. The price centers of both have moved down month-on-month. In the short term, they are expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Supply - In August, manganese silicon production continued to increase, with weekly production rising for more than ten consecutive weeks. By the end of August, weekly production was 213,000 tons, a 1% week-on-week increase and a 17% year-on-year increase. The operating rates of major production areas all increased to varying degrees, with the overall operating rate in the north still relatively high, approaching 70% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - Crude steel production decreased significantly, while hot metal production remained stable. The weekly demand for manganese silicon from sample steel mills was basically flat week-on-week. Steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In August, the number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.98 days, a low level in the same period in recent years [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample enterprises decreased month-on-month and was basically the same year-on-year. By the end of August, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons in the latest week and a total decrease of 15,000 tons in August [5]. 3.1.4 Cost - The prices of major raw materials remained stable, and the overall production cost increased slightly month-on-month. The port manganese ore inventory was stable at around 4.4 million tons, and the port manganese ore price did not change much. The price of rich manganese slag increased month-on-month, and the spot production cost of manganese silicon increased by 0 - 100 yuan/ton month-on-month [5]. 3.1.5 Summary - Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the fundamental driving force of manganese silicon is limited. The price center has moved down month-on-month. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and there is an expectation of a certain improvement in downstream demand in September [6]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon iron supply continued to increase. In August, there were 77 silicon iron enterprises in production nationwide, with 261 ore furnaces in operation. The average operating rate in August was 52.74%, a 1.15% increase from July. The estimated production was 479,300 tons, a 18,900 - ton increase from July, a 4.11% month-on-month increase, and a 24,500 - ton increase from the same period last year, a 5.39% year-on-year increase [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - Steel demand did not show a significant increase, and steel mills' willingness to stock up was limited. In July, the production of metal magnesium decreased month-on-month, but the absolute value was still at a high level in the same period in recent years [8][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample silicon iron enterprises decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was gradually weakening. By the end of August, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 62,910 tons, a decrease of 2,270 tons from mid - August [8][94]. 3.2.4 Cost - The spot production cost increased this month, but the support for prices was limited. The price of semi - coke small materials increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of about 10% to 650 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2.5 Summary - The overall fundamental driving force is limited, market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has moved down. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market, and future attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and electricity price performance [9]. 3.3 Price and Related Indicators 3.3.1 Futures Price - In August, the price centers of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures contracts moved down month - on - month. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract on August 28 was 5,842 yuan/ton, a 3.09% month - on - month decrease; the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5,624 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [10][12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Spot prices in various regions also decreased to varying degrees, with the average decline of ferrosilicon spot prices greater than that of ferromanganese [13]. 3.3.3 Basis - The basis of ferrosilicon fluctuated and strengthened [18]. 3.3.4 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of ferromanganese decreased by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, while that of ferrosilicon increased by 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][25]. 3.3.5 Production Cost - The production cost of ferrosilicon increased significantly this month, greater than the average increase in the cost of ferromanganese [27]. 3.3.6 Production Profit - The spot production costs of both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the production profits also decreased [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, prices vary by region and grade, with recent price changes in different regions such as a -70 yuan/day change for Ningxia 72 and -50 yuan/day for Inner Mongolia 72 [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices also vary by region and grade, and there are price changes in different regions, like Inner Mongolia 6517 with a -20 yuan/day change [3]. - Price trends for silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented in multiple graphs for different regions and grades [2][6]. Supply - The production of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises (monthly and weekly data) is presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - The production of silicon manganese in China (weekly data) and the procurement volume and price of silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly data) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, including the demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, Steel Union caliber) [4][7]. - Data on the production of related products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium are provided, which can reflect the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese [4]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon iron from 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly data) and in different regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - Inventory data of silicon manganese, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and total inventory, are shown from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, including production costs, spot profits, and export profits in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][4][6][7][10][13][15]. Summary of Each Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2601 contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.38%. Imported ore prices generally decreased, with Kafan (65%) down 2 yuan/ton to 891 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.83%. For hot - rolled coils, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,355 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The trend strength for both is 0 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Weak fluctuations due to poor market sentiment [2][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was 5,566 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The closing price of the silicomanganese 2511 contract was 5,776 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton. The trend strength for both is 0 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The JM2601 coking coal contract closed at 1,151 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 2.0%. The J2601 coke contract closed at 1,643 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Repeated fluctuations [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 log contract was 777, down 1.6% from the previous day and 3.3% from the previous week. The trend strength is 0 [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is weak, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5566, down 58 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 260,904 and an open interest of 222,851. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5534, down 70, with a trading volume of 62,463 and an open interest of 100,482 [1]. - Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5776, down 52, with a trading volume of 74,310 and an open interest of 104,052. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5792, down 50, with a trading volume of 207,581 and an open interest of 325,851 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese:FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 [1]. - The price of manganese ore:Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - For ferrosilicon, the spot - 11 futures spread was - 266 yuan/ton, up 8; the 2511 - 2601 spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 12 [1]. - For silicomanganese, the spot - 01 futures spread was - 92 yuan/ton, up 32; the 2511 - 2601 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 210 yuan/ton, up 6; the silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 spread was 258 yuan/ton, up 20 [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 29, the price of ferrosilicon 72 in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (down 50), and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of ferrosilicon 75 in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of ferrosilicon 72 was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (up 10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of silicomanganese 6517 was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - In August, there were 13 operating ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia, with 41 operating submerged arc furnaces. The operating rate was 46.59%, the same as in July, and the output was expected to be 12.46 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons from July, with a capacity utilization rate of 53.57% [2]. - As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 362.7 million tons, up 1.42 million tons; at Qinzhou Port was 73.68 million tons, down 3.57 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; at Fangchenggang Port was 4 million tons, unchanged. As of August 29, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.38 million tons, down 2.15 million tons [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is also 0 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The cost - end of the silicon - manganese market has strong support as the quotes of United Mining (CML) and Comilog to China in October 2025 are flat compared to last month, and the current prices of manganese ore and coke are still relatively high [2]. - The supply is increasing as alloy plants in the north and south markets have a good start - up sentiment. However, due to the weakening of the macro - positive sentiment, the silicon - manganese futures market is weak, and the spot price has decreased slightly [2]. - The demand side shows that steel mills in the East China region are pressing down on the purchase price of silicon - manganese, with most around 5950 yuan/ton for acceptance and tax - included delivery to the factory [2]. - Overall, the short - term silicon - manganese market is expected to run in a weak and volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the actual driving effect of the traditional "Golden September" peak season on silicon - manganese alloys [2]. 3) Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: There are data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and the annual production of silicon - manganese in various regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [6][7]. - **Production - Annual**: Annual production data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [7]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Start - up Rate**: Weekly and monthly production data of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly start - up rate of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [10]. - **Production - Regional Production**: Monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are shown [11][12]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: Monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by multiple steel companies, such as Baosteel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, etc., are presented [15]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal production and the profitability rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are provided [17]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Import and export volume data of Chinese silicon - manganese iron are presented on a monthly basis [19]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and monthly average available days of silicon - manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the East China region are provided [21]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore from different sources, including trade - mode imports, imports from Gabon, South Africa, and Australia, are presented [23]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly port inventory data of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China are provided [25]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins, such as Australia, Gabon, and Brazil, in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are presented [27]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [28]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in different regions, including Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, are presented [29]. Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in different regions, including the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi, are presented [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The prices of ferroalloys are continuing to extrude the over - valued part caused by the "anti - involution" expectation. The market is gradually shifting from trading expectations to trading the real situation. The continuous accumulation of inventory at the steel and hot - rolled coil ends makes the market worried about the demand in the peak season. The prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future [12]. - The prices of industrial silicon are pulled down by the weak reality. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems have not changed fundamentally. The supply pressure exceeds the demand support, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price fluctuates due to the influence of news, with high uncertainty [16][18]. - The glass market is running stably, with inventory pressure decreasing but demand not significantly improved. The price adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. The price of soda ash is oscillating, and in the long term, the price center may gradually rise, but the increase space is restricted due to the weak demand [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7840 tons to 198,897 tons, and the position decreased by 92,457 lots to 1.05571 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3346 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.15%). The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 24,760 tons, and the position increased by 387,729 lots to 1.166633 million lots. The Lechong and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall production of steel is high, and the demand is insufficient, putting strong pressure on steel prices [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 787.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.38% (-3.00), and the position increased by 1118 lots to 473,600 lots. The weighted position was 782,500 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.43 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.88% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. The average daily hot metal production decreased, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased. The apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to rise, but the inventory accumulation rate did not slow down significantly. The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines, and attention should be paid to the future shipping progress. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On August 29, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) fell 0.86% to 5792 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 48 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF509) fell 1.03% to 5566 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the prices of both showed a downward trend [9][10][11]. - **Fundamentals and Trading Suggestions**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market has subsided, and the prices are moving closer to the fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of inventory at the steel end makes the market worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and production is still increasing. It is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon has no obvious contradiction, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [12][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8390 yuan/ton, down 2.10% (-180), and the position increased by 15,278 lots to 524,375 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-110), and the position decreased by 535 lots to 320,807 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [15][17]. - **Fundamentals and Price Expectations**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems of industrial silicon have not changed. The supply pressure exceeds the demand support, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price fluctuates due to news, with high uncertainty. The price is expected to have fluctuations, and the support level is at 47,000 yuan/ton [16][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Information**: The spot prices of glass in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, and the inventory days decreased by 0.5 days. The spot price of soda ash was 1180 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 1.09% [20][21]. - **Price Expectations**: The glass market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and the price may rise if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase space is restricted by weak demand [20][21].

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, but the risk of further declines remains high after short-term stabilization [17] - The stock market is experiencing a "shrinking circle" phenomenon, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap indices, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [19] - The A-share market's long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending targeting residents [19][6] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 2.83 trillion, down nearly 170 billion from the previous trading day, with around 3,200 stocks declining [19] - The market is characterized by increased volatility, suggesting that buying on dips is a better strategy than chasing highs [19] - Recent policies indicate a shift from investment-driven growth to consumer-driven growth, which is expected to support economic recovery [19] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.53%, Dow Jones up 0.16%, and S&P 500 up 0.32%, driven by improved GDP and employment data [25] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growth significantly revised from 1.9% to 5.7% [25][40] - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting opens the door for potential rate cuts, which may boost market risk appetite [25] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1299, down 86 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [29] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.16%, with construction materials and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while oilseeds and ferroalloys lagged [34] - The current pricing of domestic commodities remains at historical lows, suggesting that shorting commodities lacks cost-effectiveness [34] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, state-owned enterprises' total profits were 24,786.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [37] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to avoid disorderly competition in the development of "Artificial Intelligence+" [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply increase is putting pressure on prices, and the valuation is neutral with some support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - Multiple figures show the historical trends of iron alloy prices, including the main contract trends of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, spot market prices in different regions, and the price difference between the two main contracts [8][10][13] - Figures display the production - related data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, such as production enterprise operating rates and monthly production volumes in China [26][29][30] - Data on the demand - side of iron alloys are presented, including daily and seasonal production of crude steel, daily production of hot metal, and blast furnace capacity utilization [33][34][37] - Inventory - related information is shown, such as alloy factory inventories, average available days of steel mill inventories, and warehouse receipt situations for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese [40][42][43] - The cost - related factors of iron alloy production are presented, including prices of raw materials like semi - coke small materials, chemical coke, electricity, and manganese ore, as well as production costs and profits [53][57][63] 2.2 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - There is no specific content about future outlook and strategy recommendation other than the title in the given text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short - term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4][6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the near future [12]. - The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, as the factors driving price increases are weakening [17]. - Silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are expected to have bottom - oscillating trends recently [22]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Related Information**: As of August 26, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 59.22%, up 0.43 percentage points week - on - week. The national new local government bond issuance in the first seven months was 3315.9 billion yuan [2]. - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar was 3290 yuan, Beijing rebar was 3230 yuan, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (+20), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector declined in the night session. Steel production resumed, with rebar increasing and hot - rolled coil slightly decreasing. Steel exports were resilient, and downstream construction site funds improved marginally. As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease, putting short - term pressure on steel prices. After August, the coal daily consumption will decline, and the blast furnace may resume production rapidly, potentially worsening the steel fundamentals [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; Option: Wait and see [7][8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 55 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average iron - water output was 240.13 tons, down 0.62 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated widely without a clear direction. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. The eighth round of coke price increase was not responded to by steel mills. The coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, and the iron - water output will decline, with little change in the overall supply - demand relationship of coking coal [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Futures - cash: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The PB powder spot price at Qingdao Port was 781 (+13), and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract was 33 [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price fell 0.7% in the night session. The shipments of mainstream mines increased year - on - year in the past month, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August were at a high level year - on - year. The growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down, suppressing the terminal steel demand [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was clearly given for iron ore in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [18]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 28th, the semi - carbonate Mn36% at Tianjin Port was quoted at 34 yuan/ton degree, and the Gabon block Mn46% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton degree. Comilog's October 2025 quotation for Gabon blocks to China was 4.27 US dollars/ton degree, unchanged from last month [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable to weak on the 28th. The supply growth slowed down, and the demand was supported by the increase in steel production and apparent consumption. For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon spot price decreased. The supply growth also slowed down, and the alloy demand was stable [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on the long - futures short - cash spread; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [23].