所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-26 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-26 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 "沪七条"：非沪籍外环内购房社保门槛降至 1 年，公积金贷款最高 324 万 观点分享： 上海五部门联合发布楼市新政，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。限购方面，非沪籍外环内 购房社保门槛降至 1 年，满 3 年可增购 1 套，持居住证满 5 年免社保限购 1 套。公积金方 面，首套贷款最高额度提至 240 万（多子女家庭最高 324 万），并放宽二套贷款认定。税收 方面，成年子女首套房暂免征收个人住房房产税。继北京之后，上海推出的房市调整政策力 度超预期，信号明确，是上海近年最大幅度松绑。其中公积金额度全国领先，直接降低月供 与首付压力；房产税免征则打通了置换堵点，将会有力地激活改善型需求，在推动市场回归 平稳健康的同时也依然守住了"房住不炒"的底线。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 黑色 | ★★★★ | 黑色：地产预期回暖，黑色商品反弹。2 月 25 日上海市发布了被称为"沪七条"的楼市新 政， ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【债券】商业银行大幅增持，非法人类产品持续减持——2026 年 1 月份债券托管量 数据点评 截至 2026 年 1 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为 179.31 万亿元，环比净 增 0.76 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月末环比多增 0.46 万亿元。分品种看托管总量，利率 债、信用债环比净增，金融债、同业存单环比净减。从本月债市各机构对主要券种的 持仓总量来看，配置盘均表现为增配；交易盘中证券公司增配、非法人类产品持续减 配；境外机构持续减配。 行业研究 【房地产】1 月核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟 踪（2026 年 1 月）(增持) 1 月光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交金额为 1,859 亿元，同比-28.7%，成交 均价为 24,285 元/㎡，同比-4.8%。核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14.3%，一线城 市成交均价同比-9.8%。2026 开年《求是》集中刊文，明确改善和稳定房地产预期， 随着供给侧逐步出清，优质龙头受益于竞争结构优化，有望实现经营业绩企稳 ...

2月26日，平潭发展涨5.98%，截至发稿，报11.69元/股，成交9.13亿元，换手率4.20%，总市值225.83亿 元。平潭发展股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅5.45%。 资料显示，中福海峡(平潭)发展股份有限公司位于福建省福州市鼓楼区五四路159号世界金龙大厦23 层，成立日期1993年9月8日，上市日期1996年3月27日，公司主营业务涉及造林营林、林木产品加工与 销售、贸易业务、与平潭综合实验区开放开发的有关业务。主营业务收入构成为：纤维板销售 42.75%，商品房销售36.79%，农资贸易流通13.81%，林木产品销售2.34%，生物与新医药产品生产销售 2.22%，不动产租赁0.95%，其他贸易流通0.80%，其他0.32%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 国泰中证2000ETF（561370）基金经理为麻绎文、刘昉元。 截至发稿，麻绎文累计任职时间2年204天，现任基金资产总规模136.57亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 129.57%， 任职期间最差基金回报-11.89%。 刘昉元累计任职时间322天，现任基金资产总规模14.36亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报60.63%， 任职期 间最差基金回报-8. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.24% [1] - Lithium mining and chemical sectors led the gains, while MLCC, fiberglass, and oil & petrochemical sectors experienced declines [1] Group 2 - The US stock market is experiencing significant divergence, with non-US markets performing strongly due to high valuations in the US and a focus on growth attributes [2] - Commodity and industrial sectors are performing well, with cyclical industries like materials, industrials, and real estate showing continued upward trends [2] - The valuation of tech growth leaders is converging with traditional value stocks, as seen with Microsoft and ExxonMobil nearing similar valuations [2] Group 3 - The reduction of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai may stabilize local housing prices [3] - Investment opportunities in the real estate sector are emerging, with potential shifts from policy-driven volatility to a beta market driven by fundamentals [3] - Three investment strategies are suggested: 1) Allocate to stable beta characteristics, 2) Focus on structurally growing real estate development stocks, 3) Consider undervalued private enterprises for potential revaluation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence from market expectations regarding the recent stabilization in property prices and listing volumes in core cities, suggesting that further observation is necessary before concluding a cyclical turning point [2][3] - It emphasizes that the government's policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector, despite market anticipations for a major policy shift [3] - The report identifies key events, particularly the strong performance of Hong Kong property stocks, driven by a bottoming out of the Hong Kong real estate market and supportive factors such as rental yields exceeding mortgage costs [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong property index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, while the A-share real estate sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.69% [14][19] - Individual stock performance shows notable gains, with 京能置业 (Jingneng Real Estate) rising by 14.44% [20] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - National listing prices in 85 cities have shown a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1%, with a recovery in the number of cities experiencing price rebounds [25] - The listing volume has decreased by 0.22% week-on-week, but the rate of decline has narrowed [29] - During the Spring Festival, the average daily transaction volume in 16 cities increased by 23% year-on-year, with significant growth in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [36] New Housing Weekly Tracking - The average daily transaction volume for new homes during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of 48.66%, with only 青岛 (Qingdao) and 济南 (Jinan) reporting increases of 148.17% and 9.84%, respectively [54] - The total inventory of new homes has slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 0.1% [56]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 | 恒生指数 | 27019.74 | +0.95% | | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | | | | 但生科技指数 | 5284.51 | +0.46% | | 800700 | | | | 国企指数 | 9078.96 | +0.49% | | 800100 | | | MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭栩彤 客户端 美股周三继续上升，科技股普遍反弹，带动大市向上，三大指数均录得升幅收市。美元走势偏软，美国 十年期债息回升至4.05厘水平，金价反覆靠稳，油价表现向下。 今日港股三大指数集体高开，恒指开盘涨0.95%，报27019.74点，恒科指涨0.46%，国企指数涨0.49%。 盘面上，科网股涨多跌少，联想、腾讯涨超1%，网易跌超1%；内房股活跃，越秀地产涨超2%；锂电池 板块部分高开，天齐锂业涨超6%；汽车股分化，比亚迪股份涨近1%，喜相逢集团跌超1%。 美股周三继续上升，科技股普遍反弹，带动大市向上，三大指数均录得升幅收市。美元走势偏软，美国 十年期债息回升 ...

其中，上海受1月市场成交回暖以及2月上海在三区启动收购二手房用作保障性租赁住房试点影响，市场 对后续行情的信心在节前已有所回升，多数楼盘延续"春节不打烊"的运营节奏，促销力度与1月基本持 平。数据显示，上海春节假期新房成交面积为1.36万平方米，领跑一线城市，同时假期无项目集中认筹 开盘，市场预计3月将迎来供应高峰。 而北京新房市场的促销活动多样，房企推出"春节不打烊"为"小阳春"蓄力，采取线上线下相结合多维措 施积极营销，优惠方面除常规特价房，还有项目推出情人节特惠房源、直签送家电大礼包、新春"一口 价"好房以及推荐成交享高额佣金等促销手段。 随着马年春节长假的结束，楼市也交出在此期间的成绩单。 据中指研究院统计，今年春节假期（2.15-2.23），全国重点21城新建商品住宅共网签成交10万平米，与 去年春节假期相比，日均成交量基本持平。 "受节日返乡、出游及部分城市网签系统暂停更新等因素影响，今年春节期间，全国楼市整体呈现出典 型的假期模式，成交数据处于季节性低位。"中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶告诉记者。 "今年春节长假长达9天，居民探亲访友、外出旅游热情高涨，全国旅游出行人次达5.2亿次，较2019 ...

证券之星消息，截至2026年2月25日收盘，皇庭国际(000056)报收于2.3元，上涨10.05%，涨停，换手率 13.4%，成交量121.12万手，成交额2.72亿元。 2月25日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入7924.69万元，占总成交额29.12%，游资资金净流出 3458.19万元，占总成交额12.71%，散户资金净流出4466.49万元，占总成交额16.41%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 资金流向名词解释：指通过价格变化反推资金流向。股价处于上升状态时主动性买单形成的成交额是推 动股价上涨的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流入，股价处于下跌状态时主动性卖单产生的的成交额 是推动股价下跌的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流出。当天两者的差额即是当天两种力量相抵之后 剩下的推动股价上升的净力。通过逐笔交易单成交金额计算主力资金流向、游资资金流向和散户资金流 向。 皇庭国际融资融券信息显示，融资方面，当日融资买入336.46万元，融资偿还160.48万元，融资净买入 175.98万元。融券方面，融券卖出0.0股，融券偿还0.0股，融券余量0.0股，融券余额0.0万元。融资融券 余额5439.55万元。 ...

港龙中国地产（06968）公布，该集团连同其合营公司和联营公司由2026年1月共实现合同销售金额约人 民币2.014亿元，同比减少55.24%。 港龙中国地产（06968）公布，该集团连同其合营公司和联营公司由2026年1月共实现合同销售金额约人 民币2.014亿元，同比减少55.24%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...