[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年05月14日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《开局良好，内需发力》 ——2025 年 04 月 18 日 《3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿》 ——2025 年 04 月 16 日 《价格双负局面延续》 ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 关税冲击下，出口表现韧性 ——2025 年 4 月外贸数据点评 关税冲击下，出口表现韧性 4 月外贸在关税冲击下仍表现出了较强的韧性，超出市场预期。出口 虽小幅下滑，仍然保持了可观的增速，顺差维持高位。出口方面，对 美国出口确实出现了较为突出的下滑，但对其他主要贸易伙伴的出口 则有所弥补，对东盟出口明显加快，对欧盟出口稳中偏降，对日本出 口也有所回升；金砖四国方面，除南非外均有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies choosing to list in Hong Kong through the "A+H" model has become a significant focus in the market this year, with notable companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and CATL announcing their listings [1][3]. Group 1: A-share Companies Listing in Hong Kong - As of May 5, 2023, a total of 46 A-share companies have announced plans to list in Hong Kong, with 7 companies having submitted applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for overseas issuance [1]. - The shift in A-share companies opting for Hong Kong listings marks a change in market dynamics, as historically, companies preferred to list only in A-shares due to higher valuations compared to their Hong Kong counterparts [1][3]. - The companies choosing to list in Hong Kong are typically industry leaders or well-known firms in the A-share market, indicating a shift towards a more favorable perception of Hong Kong listings among high-quality companies [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Listing in Hong Kong - The changing market environment in Hong Kong, including increased participation from mainland investors, has made it more attractive for A-share companies to list there, as they can achieve appropriate price positioning [3]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has lowered the listing thresholds for A-share companies, facilitating their entry into the market by reducing the minimum H-share requirement [3]. - A-share companies have internationalization needs and seek to expand into international markets, with Hong Kong being a nearby option for such expansion [4]. - The financing needs of A-share companies also drive them to consider Hong Kong listings, as the market offers additional financing opportunities and potentially more convenient refinancing options compared to the A-share market [4].

Export Performance - In April 2025, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, down from 12.4% in the previous month[3] - Traditional consumer goods exports showed a decline, with footwear, toys, luggage, and clothing down by -8.6%, -5.4%, -12.7%, and -1.5% respectively[5] - Mechanical and electrical products exports performed well, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in April 2025[5] Import Trends - Imports decreased by -0.2% year-on-year, a significant improvement from -4.3% in the previous month[3] - The decline in imports was narrowed by increased purchases of bulk commodities like soybeans and copper ore[5] - The import growth rate for certain mechanical and electrical products also increased[5] Trade Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN countries saw a remarkable increase of 20.8% year-on-year, while exports to the US fell sharply by -21%[5] - The proportion of tariff exemptions for exports to the US was approximately 27.1%, with 22.8% being tariff exemptions on electronics[5] - Indirect trade channels have shown resilience, with a potential offsetting ratio of 44.5% to 90% for trade losses with the US[5]

中美在关税高压下的阶段性降温，美国因内外压力主动求变，中国借机缓解出口压力并巩 固非美谈判成果。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 中美关税超预期"降级" 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，美方承诺取消 4 月 8 日对中国商品加征的 91% 报 复性关税，并将 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的 34% 对等关税中的 24% 暂缓 90 天，对剩余 10% 关 税予以保留。中方也实施了相应的对等取消和暂缓措施，双方同意建立机制开展进一步经贸磋商 。 就当前时点而言，如何理解日内瓦协议背后的战略意义及其对市场的影响？ 中美各自的战略考量 就中美会谈而言，中国并不着急，美国显然是更 急于在关税方面实现突破的一方。 据中国外交部表 态，本次会谈是中方"应美方请求 "在第三国瑞士举行的会谈（而非美国本土），这相较美方此前"希 望中国主动打电话 "的傲慢态度已经大幅逆转。中方立场坚定明确，坚决反对美国滥施关税，但对建立 在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上的对话始终持开放态度。美方之所以态度逆转，主要有以下原因： 第一，中国"以牙还牙"的博弈策略带动了非美国家的观望、拖延，美方急于破局。 在关税谈判伊始， 中国便采取了对等反制的 ...

最新数据显示，1至4月，浙江外贸进出口1.75万亿元，同比增长6.6%。其中，出口1.31万亿元，增长 9.7%；进口4362.5亿元，下降1.6%。进出口、出口和进口增速分别高出全国4.2个、2.2个和2.6个百分 点；占全国份额分别为12.4%、15.6%和7.6%，较2024年同期提升0.5个、0.3个和0.2个百分点。 在业内人士看来，在国际贸易承压的情况下，浙江外贸展现韧性，民营企业功不可没。数据显示，1至4 月，浙江民营企业进出口1.42万亿元，增长7.8%，占全省进出口总值的81.1%。其中，出口1.12万亿 元，增长9.5%，占比85.4%。 位于绍兴市柯桥区钱清纺织服装产业集聚区的浙江金蝉布艺股份有限公司，已在部分国家注册商标，并 拥有多项自主知识产权的产品设计专利。"2024年，公司跨境销售额达8000万美元，同比增长25%。"金 蝉布艺总经理杨卫干劲十足，"今年我们要开拓更广阔的发展空间"。 新兴市场已成为浙江出口不容忽视的增长引擎。数据显示，1至4月，浙江对欧盟、东盟、拉美等主要市 场分别进出口2627.8亿元、2594.8亿元和1814.7亿元，增长10.3%、10.9%和4.8%。 ...

中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成重要突破，双方同意将中国对美反制关税从 125%降至 10%，美国对华加征关税从 145%降至 30%，其中 24%关税设 90 天缓冲期。这一结果远超市场预期，反映出美国在谈判中处于更被动立场，其急于取得成果 源于国内经济压力和政治反噬风险，而中国通过与东盟、欧盟等非美国家深化合作争取了谈判主动权。 谈判成功的关键在于中美双方的现实考量。美国面临关税持久战下的供应链中断风险和盟友拖延策略压力，中国则需 避免高关税对出口的长期冲击，同时利用关税战窗口期完成与非美经济体的战略布局。双方在相互经济压力下选择阶 段性妥协，既缓解了短期经贸摩擦，也为后续磋商机制奠定基础。 协议落地后，预计中国 6-7 月出口将因前期抢出口透支需求而回落，但降幅较 145%关税情景明显缓和。政策层面关注 财政对冲工具，市场层面电子产品、纺织等出口链企业压力减轻，国产替代和出海逻辑仍具长期价值。全球风险偏好 回升利好美股，黄金短期波动加剧，人民币贬值压力有所缓解。 风险提示 中美贸易博弈磋商多次反复；美国经济下行加速超预期；国内出口放缓超预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 宏观经济点评 中美关税超预期降级。5 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [6][8]. Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in April 2025 reached 3.84 trillion yuan, marking a 5.6% increase. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8% [7]. - In the first four months, general trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 9.05 trillion yuan, a 0.6% increase, and processing trade totaling 2.54 trillion yuan, a 6.6% increase [8]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.38 trillion yuan, up 9.2%. The EU followed as the second-largest partner with 1.78 trillion yuan, a 1.1% increase, while trade with the US decreased by 2.1% to 1.44 trillion yuan [9][10]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly to trade, with a total of 8.05 trillion yuan, a 6.8% increase, accounting for 56.9% of total trade. Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 4.1 trillion yuan, a 1.9% increase, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 11.3% to 1.96 trillion yuan [11]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, totaling 5.04 trillion yuan, a 9.5% increase. Key growth areas included integrated circuits and automobiles [12]. Import Trends - Major commodity import prices fell, with iron ore down 17.8% and crude oil down 8%. However, imports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.7% to 2.23 trillion yuan [13]. Price Trends - In April 2025, the industrial producer price index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with production material prices down 3.1%. The consumer price index saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices down 0.2% [16][20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs, which is expected to positively impact both economies and financial markets [2][6][10]. Group 1: Bilateral Tariffs - The U.S. has reduced additional tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% and plans to suspend 24% of tariffs for 90 days after the "liberation day," resulting in an average tariff reduction from 125% to 10% [2]. - China will cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, retaining only 10% and suspending 24% of its countermeasures for 90 days [2][7]. - The average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods is expected to decrease from 42.7% to 22.7% as cooperation on the fentanyl issue progresses [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The reduction in tariffs is projected to significantly lessen the negative impact on U.S.-China trade, with an estimated 16% decline in China's exports to the U.S. from May to December 2025 [8]. - The overall export growth for China to the U.S. is expected to decline by 11.7% for the year, with potential losses in export value ranging from $200 billion to $300 billion [8]. - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to reduce the adverse effects on domestic demand, manufacturing investment, and employment, although certain sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. may still face challenges [8][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The adjustment in tariff policies has improved market sentiment, leading to a recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a more stable market environment [10]. - The bond market has reacted to the positive news, with long-term interest rates rising, while short-term rates remain strong, indicating a potential opportunity for bond market positioning [11]. - U.S. stock markets are likely to experience a positive trend due to reduced trade tensions, although concerns over lingering tariff risks and high interest rates may limit upward movement [12]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The decline in tariffs is expected to bolster market risk appetite, leading to a potential appreciation of the RMB in the short term, while the USD may face mixed pressures depending on future tariff developments [13]. - Gold prices may experience short-term volatility due to increased risk appetite, but long-term uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy could support a rebound in gold prices [13].

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days[2] - After the suspension, the average tariff rate imposed by the US on China will be 51%, which is higher than the average non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rate of 42%[2][16] - The negotiations indicate a willingness to communicate, moving from an irrational tariff level to a more rational one, suggesting the start of substantive trade discussions[3][18] Group 2: Impact on Trade and Exports - During the 90-day suspension period, China's export growth to the US may decline by 21.6% to 27.6%[4][21] - In April, China's export growth to the US was -21.03%, indicating that further deterioration is unlikely within the year[4][21] - High price elasticity industries, such as optical and medical instruments, are more sensitive to tariff changes, with significant impacts expected from tariff adjustments[5][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The positive outcome of the trade talks is expected to enhance market risk appetite and support domestic economic improvement[6][24] - The Chinese government is adopting a more proactive policy stance, which may lead to accelerated implementation of existing policies in the second quarter[6][24] - Future negotiations may still face uncertainties, reflecting the historical behavior of the Trump administration regarding trade policies[3][26]

Export Performance - In April, exports showed resilience with a growth rate of 8.1%, surpassing the first quarter's growth of 6.4% and significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of 0.8%[1] - Month-on-month, April exports increased by 0.6%, indicating sustained export momentum despite a surge in March[1] Regional Analysis - Exports to ASEAN, Canada, and Latin America saw significant increases, with exports to ASEAN nearly doubling to 20.8% and to Vietnam reaching 22.5%[2] - Conversely, exports to the United States declined by 21.0%, while exports to Canada and the EU increased by 15.0% and 8.3%, respectively[2] Product Categories - Labor-intensive and consumer electronics exports weakened, with declines in categories such as plastic products (-1.2%), bags (-9.1%), and clothing (-1.2%) indicating a significant impact from tariffs[3] - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained resilience, with integrated circuit exports accelerating by 1.5%[3] Import Trends - Imports showed a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of only 0.2%, an improvement of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Notably, copper imports surged by 48.9%, driven by increased prices due to U.S. tariffs on copper ore[4] Trade Policy Outlook - Short-term exports to the U.S. are expected to recover, but long-term dynamics will depend on ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and tariff policy adjustments[5] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days, creating uncertainty for future export demand[5]