Group 1: Overseas Profit Contribution - In 2024, the proportion of gross profit from overseas for manufacturing listed companies is estimated to be 23.7%, slightly higher than the overseas revenue proportion of 22.3%[3][11] - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector has an even higher overseas gross profit ratio, reaching 31.2% in 2024[3][11] Group 2: Growth Contributions - For the equipment manufacturing sector, revenue growth in the first half of the year was 10.0%, with overseas contributions accounting for 3.3%[4][12] - The gross profit growth for the equipment manufacturing sector was 5.4%, with overseas contributions significantly higher at 4.0%[4][12] Group 3: Profit and Market Value Observations - The net profit growth for all A-share non-financial companies in the first three quarters was 1.7%, compared to a decline of 12.9% for the previous year[5][19] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed the fastest growth at 18.6% in the first three quarters, significantly influenced by overseas contributions[5][19] - By the end of September, the total market value of A-share non-financial companies was 96.9 trillion, up from 76.8 trillion at the end of the previous year, with manufacturing contributing 85% to this growth[6][22]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Both production index and new orders index have decreased, with values of 49.7% and 48.8% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in production and market demand [1] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI above the critical point, while small and medium enterprises show varying degrees of decline, with PMIs of 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - Three key sectors, including high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods, continue to expand with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, indicating strong support for the overall manufacturing sector [1] - The high-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.3%, which is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in activity [1] - The production and business activity expectation index stands at 52.8%, remaining in the expansion zone, suggesting that most manufacturing enterprises maintain an optimistic outlook on market development [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience and progress amidst pressures, with solid foundations laid for achieving annual economic and social development goals [1] Economic Performance Characteristics - The GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, maintaining a leading position among major global economies. Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 6.2%, marking the highest growth since 2022 [2] - Strong momentum is evident, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively. Their shares in large-scale industrial output rose by 2.1 and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The integrated circuit and smart device manufacturing sectors saw increases of 22.4% and 12.2% [2] - Quality and efficiency have improved, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises, and a significant 21.6% increase in September alone. Prices for key products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate have rebounded [2] - The economy demonstrated resilience with a 7.1% growth in goods exports, alongside an optimized export product structure. High-tech and electromechanical product exports grew by 11.9% and 9.6%, respectively, with exports to Belt and Road countries increasing by 12.4% [2] - There is significant potential for growth, with retail service sales rising by 5.2%. The production of civilian drones and industrial robots surged by 43.2% and 29.8%, while the output of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles increased by 29.7% and 46.9% [3] Social Welfare and Supply Security - The government has effectively ensured social welfare, particularly in grain production and energy supply. Measures have been taken to stabilize grain markets and minimize the impact of disasters on production and farmers' incomes. The summer grain harvest was successful, and the autumn harvest is expected to be strong [4] - Energy supply for the winter heating season is on track, with coal reserves at 220 million tons, sufficient for over 35 days. The underground gas storage has met its annual injection target, ensuring full capacity for winter [4][5] Investment Expansion - Expanding effective investment is crucial for stabilizing growth. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt to enhance financial capacity and support investment projects, with 2300 projects supported and a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [6] - The focus of investments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects in transportation, energy, and underground pipeline construction [6] - Recent forecasts from international economic organizations have raised China's economic growth expectations for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points compared to earlier predictions [6]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience and progress in the first three quarters of the year, with effective investment and strong social welfare measures laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [1][6]. Economic Performance - GDP growth reached 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Industrial added value grew by 6.2%, marking the highest growth for the same period since 2022 [2] Industrial Dynamics - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, with their shares in large-scale industry rising by 2.1 and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The integrated circuit manufacturing and smart device manufacturing sectors saw significant growth, with increases of 22.4% and 12.2% [2] Quality and Efficiency - Improvements in product prices and corporate profits were noted, with industrial enterprise profits rising by 3.2% year-on-year, and a notable 21.6% increase in September alone [2] - Prices for key products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly [2] Resilience and Export Growth - Despite external challenges, merchandise exports maintained a growth rate of 7.1%, with high-tech and electromechanical product exports growing by 11.9% and 9.6%, respectively [2] - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 12.4% [2] Consumption and Potential - The service retail sector grew by 5.2%, driven by popular events such as sports and concerts [3] - The production of consumer drones and industrial robots surged by 43.2% and 29.8%, respectively, while new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles saw increases of 29.7% and 46.9% [3] Social Welfare and Food Security - The government has effectively ensured food security and energy supply, with measures in place to stabilize grain markets and enhance disaster response capabilities [4] - As of October 27, coal reserves in national power plants reached 220 million tons, sufficient for over 35 days of use [4][5] Investment Expansion - The government has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt to support effective investment, with 2300 projects supported and a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [6] - Key investment areas include digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects [6] Future Outlook - International economic organizations have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, indicating confidence in achieving annual development goals [6][7]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [1][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4] - Industrial added value for large-scale enterprises rose by 6.2%, marking the highest growth for the same period since 2022 [4] Economic Resilience - Despite external pressures, China's goods exports maintained a growth rate of 7.1% [5] - The export structure has improved, with high-tech and high-value-added products seeing growth rates of 11.9% and 9.6%, respectively [5] - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 12.4%, and exports to ASEAN countries have seen an upward trend for eight consecutive months [5] Innovation and Industry Growth - China's innovation index has entered the global top ten, supporting the development of emerging industries [4] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, with their shares in large-scale industry rising [4] - Production of civilian drones and industrial robots surged by 43.2% and 29.8%, while production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles grew by 29.7% and 46.9% [5] Financial Support and Investment - Over 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to support more than 2,300 projects, with total project investments around 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and urban infrastructure [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote project construction to expand effective investment and drive high-quality development [7] Logistics and Cost Efficiency - The total logistics cost in China for the first three quarters was 14.2 trillion yuan, with a GDP ratio of 14.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [10] - The logistics infrastructure network is being optimized, with significant advancements in digitalization and automation, leading to improved operational efficiency [10] - The implementation of the "Action Plan" aims to further reduce logistics costs and enhance service quality across the logistics sector [10]

Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, Shandong's GDP reached 77,115 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 4,825 billion yuan (3.9% growth), the secondary industry 30,150 billion yuan (5.3% growth), and the tertiary industry 42,140 billion yuan (6.1% growth) [2] - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises grew by 7.8%, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing (12.0% growth) and specific sectors like automotive (17.0%), railway and shipbuilding (14.9%), and electronics (16.6%) [2] Policy and Development Initiatives - A major project planning and implementation meeting was held to ensure the achievement of economic and social development goals for the year and to support a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - Five key areas for project planning were identified: industrial upgrading, infrastructure, energy transition, urban-rural integration, and improving people's livelihoods [5] Trade and Investment - Jinan's foreign trade import and export reached 2,056.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 28% increase year-on-year, significantly outperforming the provincial average [7] - The city achieved a balanced growth in exports (1,382.6 billion yuan, 24.2% growth) and imports (673.8 billion yuan, 36.5% growth), marking a historical high for the total trade volume [7][8] Conferences and Events - The 4th Confucian Business Conference was held in Jinan, attracting 468 guests from 36 countries, with 45 key projects signed, including 9 foreign investment projects totaling 1.01 billion USD [6] - The 25th Blue Economy International Talent and Industry-Academia-Research Cooperation Conference took place in Qingdao, showcasing innovations in various fields and signing key projects in biotechnology and semiconductors [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - **Structural Pressures**: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - **Enterprise Scale**: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - **Demand Side**: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - **Industry Categories**: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - **PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index**: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the city is on the "113388" work system and the "three major battles," emphasizing the "project-oriented" approach to drive rapid project initiation, construction, and production [1] - From January to September, the city's fixed asset investment increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from newly registered projects, injecting strong momentum into high-quality economic development [1] - Manufacturing investment is a key support for investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, contributing 4.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] Group 2 - The private economy continues to thrive, with private investment becoming the main driving force for growth, increasing by 20.5% year-on-year and accounting for 70.4% of total investment [3] - Excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 25.7%, with manufacturing private investment making up 55.3% of total private investment, reflecting strong confidence among private enterprises [3] - Infrastructure investment grew by 8.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth, with notable performance in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of new project registrations is significant, with 466 new projects registered from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and completed investment growing by 46.1% [4] - Among the new projects, 212 projects with investments of over 100 million yuan saw a 55.9% increase in completed investment year-on-year [4] - Industrial new projects totaled 353, with a year-on-year growth of 27.0% and completed investment growth of 86.4%, highlighting the ongoing importance of project construction [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, showing a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level, while the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI was at the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises were stable. With the easing of international situations and policy support, the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5][7]. - In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trendily due to the revision of economic expectations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1pct; the comprehensive PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct [3]. 3.2 Reasons for the Decline in Manufacturing PMI - Seasonal factors: The pre - holiday demand was released in advance, and the number of working days decreased. The production index and new order index declined, leading to a seasonal decline in the manufacturing PMI [5]. - International environment: Due to the unclear results of China - US trade negotiations, the new export order index of the manufacturing industry dropped to 45.9%, the second - lowest point of the year, and the production and operation activity expectation index also declined [5]. 3.3 Structural Highlights in the Data - Key industries remained resilient: The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were above 50%, higher than the overall manufacturing level and still in the expansion range [6]. - Non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range: The service industry PMI increased by 0.1pct to 50.2% due to the holiday effect and promotional activities, and the business activity expectation index remained in a high - prosperity range. The construction industry's business activity expectation index increased by 3.6pct, indicating improved confidence [6]. 3.4 Bond Market Viewpoint - Due to the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendily [8]. 3.5 Related Research Report References - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trendily; the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, down 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, reflecting a decline in production and market demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [1] Group 2: Enterprise Size Impact - The PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, showing a decline of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a decrease in economic sentiment across all sizes [2] - Large enterprises maintained production and new orders indices at 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stability in non-manufacturing operations [2][3] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in service sector activity, while the construction sector's index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in construction activity [2][3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The stability in non-manufacturing activities is supported by holiday consumption, with positive performance in travel, shopping, tourism, and dining sectors [3] - The gradual release of policies aimed at stabilizing growth is expected to strengthen domestic demand in the fourth quarter, providing solid support for achieving annual economic and social development goals [3]