商务大数据显示，10月份，全国生产资料市场价格环比上涨0.2%。 从主要品种来看： 煤炭价格环比上涨1.2%，同比下降10.4%，其中，炼焦煤、二号无烟块煤、动力煤环比分别上涨3.1%、 1.4%和0.7%。 钢材价格环比下降1.2%，同比下降11.2%，其中，槽钢、热轧带钢、焊接钢管环比分别下降1.7%、1.5% 和1.4%。 化肥价格环比下降1.8%，同比下降8.1%，其中，尿素、三元复合肥环比分别下降2.0%和0.6%。 有色金属价格环比上涨3.0%，同比上涨4.6%，其中，铜、铝环比分别上涨4.9%和0.9%，锌价与上月基 本持平。 成品油价格环比下降1.4%，同比下降4.6%，其中，92号汽油、0号柴油、95号汽油环比分别下降1.5%、 1.5%和1.3%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - **Market Performance**: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - **Strategy**: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - **Strategy**: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - **Strategy**: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - **Basic Logic**: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [54] - **Basic Logic**: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices increased slightly after a period of slow new - order follow - up. The成交 atmosphere improved, with the improvement in the Northeast's compound fertilizer production, the increase in production in Shandong and Hubei, and the rise in melamine production. The entry of off - season storage and the news of export quotas also contributed to the better market situation. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to new capacity release, and gas - based maintenance is expected to start in December. The expected improvement in year - end exports is likely to support the spot market, and continuous attention should be paid to the Northeast compound fertilizer start - up rate, raw material procurement rhythm, and national off - season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 20, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1665 yuan/ton (+2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (+8), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 45 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of November 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1034 yuan/ton (- 9). In October, 120 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 400 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 60 million tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (- 0.59) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (- 4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+1.80) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [3]

机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，红四方十大流通股东中，南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第一 大流通股东，持股71.12万股，相比上期减少1.34万股。圆信永丰医药健康A（006274）位居第三大流通 股东，持股45.00万股，为新进股东。华夏中证1000ETF（159845）位居第四大流通股东，持股42.41万 股，相比上期增加1500.00股。圆信永丰聚优A（010469）位居第五大流通股东，持股40.01万股，相比 上期减少4.03万股。广发中证1000ETF（560010）位居第七大流通股东，持股32.54万股，相比上期减少 1.59万股。富国中证农业主题ETF（159825）位居第八大流通股东，持股28.75万股，为新进股东。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司位于安徽省合肥市包河区宿松路与广福路交口信达中心A 座，成立日期2012年3月26日，上市日期2024年11月26日，公司主营业务涉及复合肥和氮肥产品的研 发、生产、销售和服务。主营业务收入构成为：复合肥产品92.93%，氮肥产品5.07%，硫酸钾产品 1.22%，其他(补充)0.79%。 截至9月3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices opened low and closed flat, while spot prices continued to rise. With sufficient pending orders from factories, short - term prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias. Although high daily production suppresses the upside of the futures market, improved downstream demand and positive market sentiment have led to a continuous rebound in the futures market. Overall, urea prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, but caution is advised regarding price corrections at high levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Period - Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1661 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closed flat at 1665 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume was 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 419 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,062 lots [2]. Spot - Spot prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,550 to 1,600 yuan/ton, with most increases between 10 and 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price was in Hebei [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both rose today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis for the January contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.34% [11]. Inventory and Orders - As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from the previous week, a 3.13% decrease. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a 7.65% decrease [12]. Downstream - From November 15 - 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous week [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of Xinyangfeng (000902.SZ) in the fertilizer industry, particularly in the face of challenges such as demand weakness and cost pressures, while also noting its strategic shift towards lithium battery production [4][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Xinyangfeng achieved a revenue of 13.475 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.96% [8][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.374 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 23.43% compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The company indicated that the delayed autumn fertilizer sales would positively impact the fourth quarter's performance, suggesting strong future earnings [11]. Group 2: Industry Position - Xinyangfeng is a leading player in the phosphate fertilizer sector, with a production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year, maintaining the top position in the industry [12]. - The company specializes in a range of products including conventional and new-type compound fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate, iron phosphate, and phosphogypsum [12]. - Xinyangfeng has consistently ranked first in compound fertilizer production and sales nationwide, and is among the top three producers of monoammonium phosphate [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices slightly increased after a slow new - order follow - up last week. Currently, agricultural and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers are ending, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. Melamine production has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off - season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories slightly increased. The high domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. The export quota news improves the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report shows information on urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and national capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents urea small - particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large - particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small - and large - particle FOB and CFR prices in China, price differences, and export and on - disk export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [52][53][56] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,663 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (+9). The urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,044 yuan/ton (- 20) [2] - **Supply Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (- 46,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [2] - **Demand Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32% (- 0.72%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the number of advance order days of urea enterprises was 7.12 days (- 0.59) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

有色金属价格小幅上涨，其中铝、铜、锌分别上涨2.0%、0.9%和0.8%。 煤炭价格继续上涨，其中炼焦煤、动力煤、无烟块煤每吨1076元、788元和1165元，分别上涨1.7%、 1.2%和0.1%。 商务大数据显示，11月10日至16日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周（环比，下同）上涨0.9%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中硫酸、纯碱分别上涨4.1%和0.2%，聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降0.3%和 0.2%。 成品油批发价格小幅回升，其中0号柴油、92号汽油、95号汽油分别上升1.4%、1.1%和0.9%。 化肥价格略有上涨，其中三元复合肥、尿素分别上涨0.2%和0.1%。 钢材价格基本持平，其中螺纹钢、高速线材每吨3320元和3516元，分别上涨0.2%和0.1%，槽钢每吨 3563元，与前一周基本持平，普通中板、热轧带钢每吨3663元和3475元，均下降0.4%。 橡胶价格略有回升，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别上涨0.3%和0.1%。 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from November 10 to 16, with no change compared to the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices for grains and oils were mostly stable, with rice and rapeseed oil holding steady, while soybean oil and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, and flour increased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product prices showed slight fluctuations, with eggs decreasing by 0.3% and white-cut chicken increasing by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor changes, with pork priced at 18.42 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef remained stable and lamb increased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.67 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.4%, with cauliflower, rapeseed, and broccoli decreasing by 7.8%, 7.6%, and 4.9% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products slightly declined, with crucian carp, silver carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and pears rising by 3.7%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 4.1% and 0.2% respectively, while polypropylene and methanol decreased by 0.3% and 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices for refined oil showed a slight recovery, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline increasing by 1.4%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals experienced slight increases, with aluminum, copper, and zinc rising by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 1076 yuan, 788 yuan, and 1165 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.7%, 1.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with compound fertilizer and urea rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained mostly stable, with rebar and high-speed wire priced at 3320 yuan and 3516 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while channel steel remained stable and ordinary medium plate and hot-rolled strip decreased by 0.4% [2]