交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差50，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million in Q2 2025, compared to a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024 [7][25][26] - The dollar lost value against most currencies, contributing positively to net income by $220 million [26] - The company expects EBITDA from the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment to increase due to strong demand and limited supply [12][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate production guidance for the third quarter is set at 1.8 million to 2 million tons, with annual guidance now at 6.9 million to 7.2 million tons [11][36] - Potash production guidance has been increased to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons due to strong global demand [12][36] - The Biosciences segment's revenues more than doubled in the first half compared to the previous year, with expectations to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA starting in Q4 [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global phosphate market remains tight, with strong demand and limited supply expected to continue into 2026 [9][21] - In North America, import supply of phosphate is down around 20% year-over-year due to tariffs, which is expected to keep domestic demand strong [20][71] - Brazilian demand for fertilizers is resilient despite higher prices, with expectations for record shipments this year [21][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving operating performance and enhancing reliability in its phosphate production business [5][6] - The new Pomeranci facility adds 1 million tons of distribution capacity, reinforcing the company's market presence in Brazil [13] - The company aims to achieve $250 million in cost reductions by 2026 through various operational efficiencies [35][89] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a strong second half of 2025, driven by improved production volumes and favorable market conditions [6][36] - The company does not anticipate a price reset in the second half of the year, which has occurred in previous years [8] - Management highlighted the importance of market access as a competitive advantage, especially in the context of tight supply and strong demand [6][13] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on capital allocation, expecting stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders [15] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions in its operations, with plans to extend these efforts further [35] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Can you parse out the noise from what has actually changed from your Investor Day for better or worse? - Management acknowledged the market's negative reaction and clarified that while there were extraordinary expenses, the underlying performance remains strong [40][41] Question: What was your run rate roughly in July and how are we trending in August and September? - Management indicated that July's run rate was not as expected due to delays but expressed optimism for August and September based on encouraging numbers [48][53] Question: How do the $50 million idle and turnaround one-off costs in Q2 ramp down? - Management provided a general annualized cost range for phosphates but noted the variability in turnaround costs [56][60] Question: What has Mosaic done to harden the assets against potential weather disruptions? - The company has implemented various measures to prepare for hurricane season, including hardening assets and ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [64][66] Question: Can you talk about how tariffs have raised the costs of imports of phosphates into the United States? - Management explained that imports of phosphate face a 10% tariff, impacting the market dynamics and supporting domestic prices [70][71] Question: Can you elaborate on the government's reduction in support for farmer financing of input costs? - Management noted that while the first half of the market was strong, the summer season for soybeans is slower, which may impact demand [93][98]

尿素日报 | 2025-08-06 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 出口扰动，尿素震荡走高 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-05，尿素主力收盘1772元/吨（+39）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：8 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：8元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：18元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润250元/吨（+20），出口利润976 元/吨（-7）。 供应端：截至2025-08-05，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.73 万吨（+5.85），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-05，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.12日（+0.18）。 印度IPL尿素进口招标价格较上一轮提升，提振尿素盘面价格，同时受到出口扰动，市场情绪震荡走强。尿素产量 处于较高水平，供应端较为充 ...

根据中国海关数据显示：2025年5月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为111万吨，同比下降0.1%，进口金 额为3.62亿美元，同比下降4.8%，2025年5月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为314万吨，同比增长 21.5%，出口金额为7.11亿美元，同比下降4.4%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Urea Industry**: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - **Methanol Industry**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - **Strategy**: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - **Strategy**: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - **Strategy**: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].

Core Insights - Fertiglobe has postponed its plans for the 1 million ton per year low-carbon ammonia Rabdan project in Ruwais, UAE, due to the early development stage of the global market and evolving regulatory frameworks [1] - The company has been trialing low-carbon ammonia and renewable ammonia products in Japan, India, and Europe since 2021, primarily for co-firing in power plants and chemical production [1] - Fertiglobe's CEO, Ahmed El-Hoshy, stated that the global low-carbon ammonia market is still in its infancy, with dynamic changes in regulatory frameworks and demand signals [1] - The company is still proceeding with the 1 million ton per year Harvest low-carbon ammonia project in the UAE, which remains central to its decarbonization roadmap [1] - Fertiglobe is collaborating with ADNOC and ExxonMobil to evaluate the development of the Baytown project, which is a significant part of its global low-carbon ammonia solutions strategy [1] - In May, Marubeni Corporation announced a long-term purchase agreement with ExxonMobil to procure approximately 250,000 tons of low-carbon ammonia annually from the Baytown facility in Texas [1] Company Overview - Fertiglobe currently has a total production capacity of 6.6 million tons per year for urea and commodity ammonia, with production bases located in the UAE, Egypt, and Algeria [2] - The company is a significant nitrogen fertilizer producer in the MENA region [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Chuanjinnuo's stock closed at 21.72 yuan on August 5, experiencing a decline of 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 536 million yuan and a turnover rate of 11.34% [1] - Chuanjinnuo specializes in the research, production, and sales of phosphate chemical products, including phosphoric acid and calcium hydrogen phosphate, and is categorized within the fertilizer industry sector [1] - The company anticipates achieving a net profit of 168 million to 188 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 152.25% to 182.28%, which introduces a new concept of "2025 mid-year profit increase" [1] Group 2 - On August 5, the net outflow of main funds was 20.64 million yuan, accounting for 0.44% of the circulating market value, while the cumulative net inflow over the past five trading days reached 66.30 million yuan, representing 1.4% of the circulating market value [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Batian Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in its stock price and is expected to report substantial profit growth in the first half of 2025 [1] - As of August 5, 2025, Batian Co., Ltd. closed at 10.26 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02 yuan, representing a 0.20% rise [1] - The company is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers, which are essential in the agricultural production sector [1] Group 2 - The mid-year performance forecast for 2025 indicates that the company expects a net profit between 450 million yuan and 520 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 199.6% to 246.2% [1] - On August 5, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 30.21 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 93.53 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1 - The core stock price of Yara International on August 5 was 31.82 yuan, down 0.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 63,532 lots and a transaction amount of 202 million yuan [1] - The company specializes in the mining, processing, and sales of potassium salts, with main products including potassium chloride and potassium sulfate, and operates within the fertilizer industry based in Guangdong Province [1] - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 730 million yuan and 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244%, which introduces the "2025 mid-year profit increase" concept [1] Group 2 - On August 5, the net outflow of main funds was 16.31 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 17.46 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that CF Industries will report quarterly earnings of $2.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.9%, while revenues are expected to reach $1.73 billion, an increase of 10.2% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has not changed over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have not revised their initial projections [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue and Sales Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Ammonia' at $449.34 million, a year-over-year increase of 9.9% [5]. - 'Net Sales- Granular Urea' is projected to reach $502.54 million, indicating a 10% increase from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Net Sales- UAN (urea ammonium nitrate)' is expected to be $518.90 million, reflecting a 9.2% year-over-year change [5]. Sales Volume Estimates - 'Net Sales- AN (ammonium nitrate)' is projected at $104.53 million, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [6]. - Total 'Tons of product sold' is expected to reach 4,904 thousand tons, up from 4,875 thousand tons reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Sales volume by product - Ammonia' is estimated at 1,027 thousand tons, compared to 979 thousand tons a year ago [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - UAN' is projected at 1,754 thousand tons, slightly up from 1,748 thousand tons reported last year [7]. - 'Sales volume by product - Granular Urea' is expected to be 1,232 thousand tons, down from 1,251 thousand tons in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Sales volume by product - AN' is estimated at 356 thousand tons, compared to 340 thousand tons reported last year [9]. Average Selling Price Estimates - The average selling price per ton for 'Ammonia' is expected to be $437.91, up from $418.00 a year ago [9]. - The consensus estimate for 'Average selling price per ton - UAN' stands at $298.50, compared to $272.00 last year [10]. Stock Performance - CF shares have decreased by 1.6% over the past month, contrasting with a 1% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11].