2025 年 12 月 31 日 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,743 | 1,735 | 8 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,749 | 1,735 | 1 4 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 172,512 | 114,679 | 57833 | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 204,038 | 194,803 | 9235 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 12,381 | 10,750 | 1631 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 603,425 | 397,878 | 205547 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -183 | -175 | - 8 | | | | 东光-盘 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downside space for urea is limited, with support at the [1600] price level. The reasons include the recent maintenance of domestic gas - based plants leading to a decline in daily production on a month - on - month basis, but high levels of production and operation rates on a year - on - year basis; domestic demand is mainly for off - season storage, and industrial compound fertilizer production is in a transition period with a month - on - month improvement in demand; and cost support has slightly increased. The cost support for urea is around 1500 - 1550. With the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas, expected to be around 600,000 tons, the specific export volume in the later stage should be monitored. Overall, with off - season storage and export regulation, the downward drive for urea is limited, and it should be treated with a sideways view [3]. - In 2026, the domestic urea market is expected to maintain a pattern of loose supply and demand and continuous inventory accumulation, with the overall supply - demand pressure potentially intensifying. Cost support and export policies will be the key factors of concern. The disk pricing is expected to follow the fundamental logic. The peak agricultural demand season may drive the price to rise periodically, and the price will face pressure to decline after entering the off - season, but the cost of the production process will form a bottom support, and exports will adjust the supply - demand balance through quota regulation. It is recommended to focus on seasonal market trends and grasp the rhythm [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Trend Review - In 2025, the urea price showed a wide - range volatile trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the year, the price fluctuated upwards due to domestic spring - plowing demand and export expectations, but the pressure of oversupply on the supply side gradually emerged. In the second half of the year, affected by the off - season of agricultural demand and the realization of export expectations, the price center continued to move down. The market can be divided into several stages: from mid - January, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, manufacturers' advance orders started, and spot transactions improved; after the Lantern Festival, spring - plowing demand gradually started, and the inventory of urea enterprises decreased rapidly; from mid - June, due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the international urea price rose, which had an impact on the domestic market; from mid - August, due to the weakening of domestic demand and environmental protection policies, the urea price accelerated its decline; from mid - October, with the warming of market trading, the reserve demand increased, and the price gradually rose [16][17]. Urea Supply Side New Capacity Situation - Domestic urea capacity has entered a new expansion cycle in recent years. As of now, coal - based production still dominates, accounting for over 70%, with the proportion of anthracite - based plants decreasing to about 20% and bituminous - coal - based plants increasing to about 55% [30][31]. - In 2025, without considering capacity exit, about 5.44 million tons of new capacity were put into production according to the plan, mainly from factory expansions and upgrades. In 2026, the domestic urea industry is still in the production cycle, with an estimated new production plan of 5.95 million tons and a capacity growth rate of over 7% [36][40]. - Globally, the urea capacity is expected to maintain a growth pattern in 2026, but the growth rate will slow down. The global urea capacity is expected to reach 247 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 0.78% [46]. Production and Operation - In 2025, domestic urea supply remained high due to high capacity and operation rates. The daily production reached over 1.9 million tons in the first quarter, with a peak exceeding 2 million tons. In the second quarter, the daily production continued to rise, remaining above 2 million tons for a long time. In the third quarter, due to high temperatures and frequent equipment failures and maintenance, the daily production decreased to the 1.8 - 1.9 million tons range, but rebounded in September. In the fourth quarter, affected by equipment maintenance and gas restrictions for enterprises in the northwest and southwest, the domestic supply showed a seasonal decline. The overall production in 2025 is expected to reach about 71 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 7.9%. In 2026, if no backward capacity exits or policy adjustments occur, the national urea production is expected to reach 74 - 75 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 5% [60]. Urea Export - In 2025, the cumulative urea export volume from January to October was 4.01 million tons, with a significant year - on - year increase. The total annual quota was about 4.6 million tons, distributed in four batches. The export destinations were relatively scattered, with the Americas being the main destination before August, and the proportion of exports to Southeast Asia increasing significantly after September - October [69]. - In 2025, India had 8 urea import tenders, with a transaction volume of about 9.18 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024. It is estimated that India's domestic urea production in 2025 was about 29.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.56%, and the import volume was about 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 92.82%. In 2026, assuming normal production in India, it is estimated that India will need to import about 8 million tons of urea to maintain domestic supply - demand balance [70]. - For 2026, the export volume of domestic urea still depends on policy guidance. It is expected that exports will still be concentrated in the third and fourth quarters. If the export quota increases, the domestic supply pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the supply pressure will be more severe [65]. Urea Demand Substitute Demand - Synthetic ammonia, as an intermediate product of urea production, is still mainly used for urea production due to the relatively high price difference between urea and synthetic ammonia, and the external sales volume has not increased significantly [107]. - Urea has a cost - performance advantage compared to phosphate and potash fertilizers. The production and export volumes of ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride have increased significantly in 2025, and the supply - demand pattern of nitrogen fertilizers has become looser, with the price ratio of urea to other fertilizers at a relatively high level [115][141]. Agricultural Demand - Urea agricultural demand is seasonal and rigid. The peak demand season is from March to May, and from June to July, the demand for field crops such as rice and corn is high. After August, it enters the off - season. In 2025, the domestic urea agricultural demand consumption was about 29.48 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 2.11%, but the growth rate slowed down compared to previous years. In 2026, the growth rate of urea agricultural demand is expected to further slow down [148][161]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Compound fertilizer accounts for 15% - 20% of the downstream demand for urea. In 2025, the compound fertilizer production was expected to be 58.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.10%, but the average operation rate decreased by about 0.40%. In 2026, the over - supply pressure in the compound fertilizer industry will still exist, and the average operation rate may continue to decline, but the demand for urea will still maintain a growth trend [171]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - Urea - formaldehyde resin accounts for about 20% of the downstream demand for urea. In 2025, the overall operation rate of formaldehyde increased slightly, and the export demand for panels maintained a growth trend, driving the demand for urea to maintain a small increase. It is estimated that the demand for urea from the urea - formaldehyde resin sector in 2025 was about 10.82 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 2.5% [170][172]. Melamine Demand - Melamine accounts for about 7% - 10% of the downstream demand for urea. In 2025, the total melamine production was expected to be about 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%, and the demand for urea was about 4.56 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 170,000 tons. In 2026, the demand for urea from melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to remain stable, with limited highlights [178]. Off - Season Storage Demand - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has some differences compared to previous years, including a reduction in the urea storage ratio, a change in the requirements for individual targets, an extension of the storage period, an adjustment of the storage assessment indicators, and an extension of the release time [190]. Urea Inventory - Enterprise inventory has strong seasonality, usually decreasing in the first half of the year and increasing in the second half. In 2025, due to high supply pressure, the enterprise inventory was at a relatively high level throughout the year, and although there was some destocking in November, the absolute inventory level was still high [199]. - Port inventory is closely related to export policies. After the export quota was officially issued in May 2025, the port inventory increased in an orderly manner. From September to October, with the increase in actual exports, the port inventory decreased rapidly [199]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, the new production capacity of urea is expected to bring an incremental output of about 2 million tons. The annual output is estimated to be around 75 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 4 million tons and a growth rate of about 5.5%. - The export volume is estimated to be about 5.5 million tons, and the annual consumption is estimated to be about 68 million tons. The domestic urea supply - demand will remain in an oversupply pattern throughout the year, and the price will depend on the game between cost and exports [205].

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：能化走强，尿素冲高回落 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1735 元/吨开盘, 平开高走，日内收涨。最 终收于 1743 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.46%，持仓量 204038 手（+9235 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+5151 手，空头+9057 手。其 中，中信期货净多单+1222 手、广发期货净多单+1018 手；银河净空单+1797 手， 一德期货净空单+2549 手。 2025 年 12 月 30 日，尿素仓单数量 12381 张，环比上个交易日+1631 张，辽 宁化肥+21 张，铁岭东北丰（辉隆集团 UR）+845 张，东平津晖（辉隆集团 UR） +765 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货市场延续下跌，但 ...

Group 1 - The company, Jinzhengda, announced that it will hold the third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on December 30, 2025 [2] - The agenda includes the proposal for the expected daily related party transactions for the year 2026 [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is transitioning from a cost-driven price increase to a high-level consolidation under strong policy guidance, influenced by policy regulation, cost support, and demand dynamics [1][5] - Policy measures include a combination of export control, supply stabilization, and raw material adjustment, aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing drastic price changes [1][5] - The export suspension policy effectively locks domestic resources, alleviating supply pressure before the spring plowing season, while mandatory operational rates ensure stable market circulation [1][5] Group 2: Cost Factors - There is still support from the cost side, but different raw material trends have shown divergence, with overall stability and slight easing [2][6] - Phosphate rock companies have ample orders, but regional supply constraints are prominent, particularly in Guizhou and Hubei, leading to tight overall supply and stable prices [7] - Sulfur prices remain high, with limited import volumes expected in January 2026, while domestic prices may see slight adjustments due to policy guidance [7] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand side exhibits a "short-term weakness + medium-term support" characteristic, with the focus of negotiations on procurement timing and price expectations [2][7] - As of December 19, the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization has dropped to 37.75%, the lowest in five years, with many companies having sufficient inventory for short-term production needs [8] - The observed demand weakness is not indicative of a complete demand shrinkage but rather a postponement based on policy and price expectations, suggesting potential recovery as the spring planting season approaches [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with policy price constraints and rigid cost support creating a balance [4][9] - Future market direction will depend on three core variables: raw material price trends, demand release timing, and the effectiveness of policy implementation [4][9] - Downstream compound fertilizer companies may continue to adopt a just-in-time purchasing model to avoid high inventory costs, while raw material price fluctuations could impact market sentiment [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term, considering potential device recoveries and possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. The current agricultural season is in a period of low demand, but there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui. Commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions. Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factory orders have been progressing steadily, and factory shipments have improved. Domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline. With the end of environmental protection warnings, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1760 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 204,038 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,939 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,868 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 12,381 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 sheets [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 350 US dollars/ton and 390 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, with an increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.5 million tons, or 2.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CITIC Bank's Zhengzhou branch has launched the "Heart-to-Heart Fertilizer Scene Loan" business, which injects financial support into the agricultural industry chain through innovative financial solutions, demonstrating the bank's commitment to serving the real economy and promoting inclusive finance [1][2] - Heart-to-Heart Group is recognized as a leading enterprise in the agricultural sector, playing a crucial role in ensuring national food security and driving technological upgrades and green transformation in the fertilizer industry [1] - The bank has established a dedicated service team to address the financing challenges faced by enterprises and distributors, conducting in-depth research and creating a communication mechanism to enhance service efficiency and responsiveness [1] Group 2 - The successful launch of the "Heart-to-Heart Fertilizer Scene Loan" has effectively alleviated financing difficulties for Heart-to-Heart Group's distributors, reducing financing costs and providing solid financial support for inventory preparation and business expansion [1] - CITIC Bank's Zhengzhou branch is transitioning from a "product-driven" approach to a "scene-based ecological operation," aiming to create replicable and scalable inclusive financial service models [2] - The bank plans to seize opportunities during the peak season for agricultural inventory preparation, expanding the coverage of inclusive loans to provide more convenient and efficient financial services for the agricultural industry chain [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

Company Overview - Hong Sifang Fertilizer Co., Ltd. is located in Hefei, Anhui Province, and was established on March 26, 2012. The company went public on November 26, 2024. Its main business involves the research, production, sales, and service of compound fertilizers and nitrogen fertilizers [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes: compound fertilizers 92.93%, nitrogen fertilizers 5.07%, potassium sulfate 1.22%, and others 0.79% [1] Stock Performance - On December 30, the stock price of Hong Sifang increased by 1.22%, reaching 29.89 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 29.01 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.51%. The total market capitalization is 7.771 billion yuan [1] Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hong Sifang, the Fu Guo Agricultural Theme ETF (159825) entered the list in the third quarter, holding 287,500 shares, which accounts for 0.54% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit for today is approximately 103,500 yuan [2] - The Fu Guo Agricultural Theme ETF was established on December 10, 2020, with a current size of 2.415 billion yuan. Year-to-date returns are 24.94%, ranking 2249 out of 4195 in its category; the one-year return is 22.28%, ranking 2305 out of 4179; and since inception, it has a loss of 16.85% [2]

复合肥企业包括生产型和营销型两大类，2020年以来，复合肥产业链宽幅震荡后回归理性，行业竞争加 剧，两大类企业围绕成本、产品、品牌和渠道等全方位的角逐已成常态，头部企业竞争优势愈发突出。 （1）新洋丰：复合肥年产能798万吨、磷酸一铵年产能185万吨，公司复合肥产销量连续多年位居国内 第一，磷矿石、硫酸、合成氨等配套日臻完善。（2）云图控股：复合肥年产能745万吨、磷酸一铵年产 能43万吨，着力打造"盐—碱—肥"氮肥产业链和磷酸分级利用产业链。（3）史丹利：复合肥年产能590 万吨，磷酸一铵年产能110万吨，"品牌+渠道+产品+服务"综合经营模式，随着河北承德和湖北松滋磷 化工项目进入使用状态，公司实现了磷肥原料的部分自供。2022年以来，龙头企业存货及应收账款周转 速度稳健，经营现金呈持续净流入，现金分红比例稳中有升。 复合肥：行业供需向好，看好龙头企业量利修复、分红提升 复合肥上游为氮肥、磷肥、钾肥等单质肥，下游对接农业生产。（1）需求端：据国家统计局数据， 2000-2023年国内农用复合肥施用折纯量自918万吨增长至2,401万吨，CAGR达到4.3%，增速显著高于氮 肥、磷肥以及农用化肥总施用量；2 ...