1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1791 (-14/-0.78%). The ex - factory prices in the spot market were stable but with weak order receipts. The daily output of the urea industry reached 20.28 tons on January 15, an increase of 0.3 tons from the previous working day and 1.65 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate is 86.14%, a 2.96% increase from 83.18% in the same period last year. Overall, the market sentiment has cooled, trading has weakened, and manufacturers' order receipts have decreased. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [3][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1791 (-14/-0.78%) [3] - Spot market: Ex - factory prices were stable with weak order receipts. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1720 - 1730 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized particles 1640 - 1690 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1720 - 1730 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On January 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 20.28 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from the previous working day and 1.65 tons from the same period last year. The start - up rate was 86.14%, a 2.96% increase from 83.18% in the same period last year [4] Logic Analysis - The ex - factory prices in mainstream regions rose slightly, but market sentiment cooled, trading weakened, and manufacturers' order receipts were few. In Shandong, the market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer start - up rate increased, but raw material inventory was abundant, finished product inventory was high, and new orders were weak, yet the ex - factory price was expected to remain firm. In Henan, the market sentiment was average, the ex - factory price followed the increase, but order receipts decreased, and the ex - factory price was expected to remain firm. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was firm, the market atmosphere was average, demand in Northeast China was stable, but new orders were weak, and the ex - factory price was expected to remain stable. The daily output of urea in China has returned to around 200,000 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. The Indian tender result is CFR420 US dollars/ton, with around 960,000 tons bid in total on the east and west coasts, far from the initial tender volume of 1.5 million tons. The price difference between domestic and international markets is still large, but there is no new domestic quota, so the overall impact is limited. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer in the Central Plains and Northeast regions has increased, and some compound fertilizer enterprises that stopped production due to environmental protection have resumed work. The raw material inventory of some enterprises is low, and they have started to purchase at low prices. The reserve progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the future purchase intensity will gradually slow down. As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance increases, traders start to sell, and agricultural procurement enthusiasm cools down, leading to a decrease in manufacturers' order receipts and a decline in ex - factory prices [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to market demand and aims to ensure a stable supply of potassium chloride products during the critical spring farming period, thereby supporting agricultural productivity and income [1] Group 1 - The company is focused on enhancing the synergy across the entire production, sales, and transportation chain [1] - Continuous optimization of resource allocation is a priority for the company [1] - The company aims to maintain a good market order while ensuring sufficient and stable supply of potassium chloride products [1]

出厂价小幅上调，下游开工提升 尿素现货成交火爆后厂家待发充足，上调出厂价，因周末及下周部分地区雨雪天气本周整体收单尚可。供应端1月 部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端冬腊肥和返青肥部分开始采购。淡储采购进行中。复合肥部分 地区环保解除，开工回升，采购好转。三聚氰胺装置复产，开工提升，刚需采购。农需工需好转，尿素企业出货 加快，尿素厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅去库。1月2日印度NFL尿素进口招标收26家供货商362万吨投标，最低报 价东海岸CFR426.8美元/吨、西海岸424.8美元/吨，较上一标涨5-8美元/吨，国际尿素市场情绪有所提振。印度NFL 还盘意向购150万吨，目前已预定100万吨。当前国内出口配额暂无新消息，后续持续关注出口动态、全国淡储节 奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 尿素日报 | 2026-01-16 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-15，尿素主力收盘1801元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -41元/吨（+33） ...

Group 1 - The European fertilizer market is in turmoil due to the uncertainty surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), leading to a near-total halt in fertilizer trade within the EU [1] - Since the beginning of the year, there have been no transactions for key fertilizer products like urea in the EU, with significant pricing disagreements between farmers and suppliers [1] - The EU Commission has proposed a new "emergency brake" clause under Article 27a of the CBAM, which could allow for the exclusion of certain goods from CBAM controls in cases of "serious and sudden special circumstances" [1] Group 2 - The potential for retroactive adjustments to the CBAM adds devastating uncertainty to the already sensitive fertilizer market, with the mechanism becoming a core consideration in trade negotiations [2] - The CEO of CBAMBOO highlighted that the EU's actions have destroyed any expectations of policy stability for fertilizer companies, emphasizing the need for clear policy in a functioning market [2] - Fertilizers are significantly more impacted by the CBAM than industrial products like steel, with a default carbon cost addition of 1% for fertilizers compared to 10%-30% for other sectors, reflecting the industry's sensitivity [2] Group 3 - Companies like Delso and Yara International are struggling with how to pass on the additional costs from the CBAM to downstream farmers, amidst conflicting signals from the EU Commission [3] - The European Fertilizer Industry Association has strongly opposed any measures that would further weaken the already pressured competitiveness of the industry, deeming the recent actions of the EU Commission unacceptable [3] - Concerns have been raised that the CBAM could mirror the pitfalls of U.S. tariff policies, ultimately leading to consumers bearing the additional costs [3]

Core Insights - The national production material market prices increased by 1.0% from January 5 to January 11 compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Metal Prices - Non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise, with aluminum, copper, and zinc increasing by 5.2%, 3.3%, and 2.8% respectively [2] Group 2: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [3] Group 3: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively - Steel prices showed a slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and channel steel priced at 3521 yuan, 3712 yuan, and 3560 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 4: Coal Prices - Coal prices exhibited slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 777 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, while anthracite and coking coal decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [4] Group 5: Chemical Raw Material Prices - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene increasing by 1.1%, while sulfuric acid and soda ash decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [4] Group 6: Oil Prices - Wholesale prices of finished oil experienced a slight decline, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [5]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable compared to the previous week, with a slight increase in production material prices by 1.0% [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw minor increases, with citrus, watermelon, and bananas rising by 1.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for meat products experienced slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.67 yuan per kilogram, increasing by 0.9%, while beef and lamb decreased by 0.2% [1] - Average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 5.68 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.9%, with specific vegetables like zucchini, cabbage, and tomatoes dropping by 8.2%, 5.0%, and 4.4% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices for non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with aluminum, copper, and zinc increasing by 5.2%, 3.3%, and 2.8% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices experienced minor increases, with urea and compound fertilizers rising by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices showed slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and channel steel priced at 3521 yuan, 3712 yuan, and 3560 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 777 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, while anthracite and coking coal decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices for basic chemical raw materials experienced minor fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene increasing by 1.1%, while sulfuric acid and soda ash decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices for finished oil products saw slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and market position [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's main revenue reached 3.867 billion yuan, an increase of 55.76% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.363 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 163.01% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.362 billion yuan, up 164.56% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported a single-quarter main revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a 71.37% increase year-on-year [2]. - The single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 508 million yuan, marking a 104.69% year-on-year increase [2]. - The single-quarter net profit excluding non-recurring items was 506 million yuan, up 105.0% year-on-year [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 32.61%, with investment income of 44.8025 million yuan and financial expenses of 65.2958 million yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 58.91% [2]. Group 2: Market Activity - As of January 15, 2026, Yara International's stock closed at 52.67 yuan, up 2.35%, with a turnover rate of 1.4% and a trading volume of 113,500 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 599 million yuan [1]. - On January 15, the net inflow of main funds was 17.2756 million yuan, accounting for 2.9% of the total transaction value, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 539,200 yuan, representing 0.09% of the total [1]. - Over the last 90 days, 12 institutions have rated the stock, with 10 giving a buy rating and 2 giving an increase rating [3].

Core Insights - Qinghai Province's market regulatory bureau has implemented a comprehensive quality improvement system for key industrial products, focusing on hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, cement, electrical cables, food-related products, and building insulation materials, which has significantly enhanced product quality, economic benefits, and management levels in local enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Quality Improvement Measures - The regulatory bureau has adopted a "you point, I help" model, providing targeted technical support and customized quality improvement plans for enterprises facing specific technical challenges [1] - A full-process management system has been established, achieving a problem rectification completion rate of over 98% in hazardous chemicals and food-related products [2] - The focus will shift towards "prevention" by 2025, with initiatives to create risk control lists and foster regional quality brands, assisting small and micro enterprises in overcoming challenges [2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Quality Enhancements - The cement industry has seen an increase in product compliance rates from 85% to 98%, while hazardous chemical companies improved product purity consistency from 86% to 98% [3] - Fertilizer production equipment compliance rates rose from 45% to 80%, and core detection accuracy for effective phosphorus and total nitrogen increased from 75% to 98% [3] - Electrical cable product compliance rates improved from 88% to 98%, and building insulation materials achieved a quality control pass rate of 99.6% [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Future Directions - The integration of technical resources with enterprise needs has led to significant quality improvements, such as a direct efficiency increase of over 20 million yuan for Xikang Tongxin Chemical through process optimization [4] - A three-dimensional verification mechanism has been established for quality checks, achieving a 100% closure rate for identified risks [4] - The market regulatory system will continue to focus on key areas and products, providing ongoing quality technical support to enhance product quality and eliminate risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 9.76 with a transaction volume of HKD 18.2161 million, amid ongoing tensions in Iran that may impact natural gas supply [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The ongoing protests in Iran could potentially disrupt its natural gas supply, which may lead to increased methanol prices in China [1] - From January to November 2025, China imported an average of 800,000 tons of methanol per month from the Middle East, accounting for 25-30% of the domestic methanol trade volume, with port inventories remaining low compared to the same period [1] - If the protests in Iran continue, there may be a shortage of overseas urea during the spring farming season in the Northern Hemisphere in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Company Actions - China Heartland Fertilizer has initiated a significant share buyback program, having spent over HKD 20 million to repurchase 2.286 million shares as of January 14 [1] - On January 12, the company announced a clear share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 10% of its issued shares for no more than HKD 200 million starting January 13 [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.55%, down 149 points, closing at 26,850 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.83% [1] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 163.9 billion in the morning session [1] Company Highlights - Jiexin International Resources (03858) rose over 5%, reaching a new high as black tungsten ore prices surpassed 500,000 yuan, prompting several tungsten companies to raise long-term contract prices [1] - Likin Resources (02245) increased by over 10% due to disruptions in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, while Zhongwei New Materials (02579) gained over 9% [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) experienced significant volatility, rising by 8% after announcing the termination of its spin-off listing plan and plans to rename itself "Rare Earth Gold" [1] - Ocean Park Hong Kong (02255) surged over 10%, with visitor numbers on the first day of the New Year holiday increasing by 60% year-on-year [1] - Zhipu (02513) rose over 4% after announcing a collaboration with Huawei to open-source a new generation image generation model [1] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) increased by over 4%, anticipating a potential global urea supply shortage, and has been actively repurchasing shares [1] - Woan Robotics (06600) gained over 7% following the release of its humanoid intelligent robot, Onero [1] - Jiantao Laminates (01888) saw a nearly 6% increase after announcing a price hike, which is expected to become a trend in the copper-clad laminate industry [1] - Qiu Tai Technology (01478) declined over 7% as Citigroup reported that the company's net profit last year fell below expectations [1] Other Notable Movements - Kanglong Chemical (03759) dropped over 5% after announcing a placement of shares at an 8.5% discount, aiming to raise nearly HKD 1.32 billion [2] - Trip.com Group (09961) plummeted over 19% due to an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for alleged monopoly practices, while Same City Travel (00780) fell over 11% [2]