Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply-demand situation for lithium hexafluorophosphate has improved, and prices are expected to rise further in the short term. As of October 10, 2025, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 64,500 CNY/ton, up 29% since the end of June 2025, while the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 CNY/ton, up 20% [4][22][24] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a surge in production, with a 10% month-on-month increase in October, driven by seasonal demand and a boom in energy storage [23] - The overall inventory of lithium hexafluorophosphate is at a low level, with only 1,500 tons available as of October 10, 2025, which is at the 35th percentile since 2019 [24] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Tracking and Event Commentary - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.02% during the reporting period [15] - Among 529 stocks in the chemical sector, 370 stocks rose (69.94%), while 146 stocks fell (27.6%) [15] - The top ten gainers included companies like Chengxing Shares and Yueyang Xingchang, while the top ten losers included companies like Bluefeng Biochemical and Yiyuan Shares [15] Key Product Tracking - The chemical fiber market remains stable, with polyester filament prices showing slight fluctuations [28][29] - The price of urea has continued to decline, with the average price dropping to 1,609 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.54% [43] - Phosphate rock prices have remained stable, with the average price for 30% grade phosphate rock at 1,017 CNY/ton [44] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector include Tianji Shares, Shida Shenghua, and Duofluor [24][25]

尿素，一粒看似普通的白色颗粒，却是"粮食的粮食"，牵动着14亿人的饭碗。 2019年8月9日，尿素期货在郑州商品交易所挂牌上市；四年后的2023年10月20日，尿素期权接踵而至， 中国农资行业正式拥有"期货+期权"双保险。 期货和期权的落地只是起点。这期间，郑商所持续探索尿素期货服务产业、对接国家战略的"最后一公 里"。 2021年初，郑商所"商储无忧"项目应运而生。这一创新模式支持承担国家化肥商业储备任务的承储企业 利用尿素期货开展风险管理，对承储企业参与套期保值过程中产生的相关费用进行支持，帮助承储企业 以市场化手段化解储备商品贬值的风险，提升储备积极性。 一头连着仓库，一头牵着田间，"商储无忧"让尿素承储企业有了稳价的金融工具，也让农户在春耕时期 不必再担心尿素"一天一个价"。 五年过去，郑商所"商储无忧"项目把495万吨尿素、52家龙头企业、23个省份一并纳入期货"避风港"， 助力农民用得起肥、种得好粮，也为"大国粮仓"更添一份从容的底气。 尿素期货稳经营，服务产业高质量发展 作为全球领先的尿素生产国与消费国，我国尿素需求横跨农业与工业两大领域：既要保障农业直接施 用，又要满足复合肥、人造板、三聚氰胺 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the S&P 500 index falling by 2.71% to 6552.51 points, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 3.56% to 22204.43 points, also the largest drop since April [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.9% to 45479.6 points [1] Commodity and Asset Performance - Crude oil and metals faced severe losses, with WTI crude oil dropping over 4%, nearing its lowest point of the year [4] - Copper prices fell by 4.5%, while spot gold rose above $4000 per ounce [4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by nearly 8 basis points [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with intraday losses exceeding 10% [5] Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - Analysts noted that the recent market downturn was anticipated due to prior gains since April, indicating a risk of substantial adjustments in the U.S. stock market [5] - The sentiment was further dampened by comments from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget regarding the government shutdown and employee layoffs [5] Stock Performance of Major Companies - Major tech stocks saw declines, including Nvidia down 4.89%, Microsoft down 2.19%, and Apple down 3.45% [6] - Post-market trading also reflected declines for tech giants, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle all dropping over 2% [7] Chinese Stocks Impact - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 6.10%, with Alibaba down 8.45% and JD down 6.24% [9] Company-Specific News - Tesla launched a lower-priced version of the Model Y in Europe, priced at €39,990 (approximately $46,304), aimed at boosting demand in a sluggish market [10] - U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic's stock dropped by 9.24% due to operational disruptions at its phosphate plant, resulting in lower-than-expected production and sales [11] - A coalition of global banks, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, announced plans to explore the issuance of a stablecoin backed by reserves [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the domestic urea market was in a pattern of supply surplus, with weak demand support. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The urea market remained in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and it was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities after clear positive signals [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, it was the off - season for domestic agricultural demand. Although exports continued, they could not digest domestic production. Enterprise inventories continued to rise, the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged, the spot price continued to fall, the futures price fluctuated, and both the basis and the inter - month spread reached historical lows [12]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic urea production was 5.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. With the return of maintenance devices, the daily output returned to a year - on - year high level, and the supply pressure was high [12]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the incremental demand mainly relied on exports. Exports increased significantly in August and were expected to remain at a high level in September. The production of compound fertilizers for autumn fertilizers began to decline, and the operating rate returned to a low level [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price continued to decline, and both coal - based and gas - based production profits were at recent lows. The 1 - 5 spread reached a new low, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the market structure was weak. The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: In September, enterprise inventories increased by 130,000 tons, and the latest inventory was 1.44 million tons, a year - on - year high. Port inventories declined from a high level, and the latest inventory was 415,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when the price was low [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of futures contracts such as 09, 01, and 05 all changed to varying degrees. The prices of domestic spot markets in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine decreased, and international prices generally declined [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 139, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 137. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The profit of fixed - bed production was at a low level compared to the same period, and the profit of gas - based production reached a new low in recent years [31]. - **Inventory**: After the holiday, enterprise inventories further increased, and port inventories declined from a high level [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: There were planned production - expansion projects for urea, with some enterprises expected to put new production capacity into operation in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of urea production returned to a medium - high level. There were many device maintenance situations, including policy - based, cost - based, and routine maintenance [47][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics. The operating rate of compound fertilizers declined, and the profit of compound fertilizer production also changed [56][58]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all changed [61]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all showed certain trends [64][66]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all affected the demand for urea. The export profit of urea was good, and the export volume also changed [72][82]. 3.6 Option - related - The trading volume, open interest, and PCR indicators of urea options all changed, and the volatility of options also showed certain characteristics [93][95]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The report presented the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry characteristics through diagrams [106][108][110].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Although India issued a new round of tenders during the National Day, the domestic market reaction was limited due to export policy uncertainties. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high - supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, since the current urea valuation is low, it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 9, compared with September 30, UR01 dropped from 1670 yuan/ton to 1609 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton (-3.65%); UR05 dropped from 1717 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.33%); UR09 dropped from 1742 yuan/ton to 1701 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-2.35%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.50%); in Shanxi, it dropped from 1490 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-2.01%); in Henan, it dropped from 1590 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.26%); in Hebei, it dropped from 1640 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Northeast China, it dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.21%); in Jiangsu, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-1.88%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong dropped from 2930 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton (-1.02%), and in Henan, it dropped from 2520 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton (-0.79%). The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b) Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR remained unchanged at - 117 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread decreased from - 47 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1]. c) Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 310689 lots [1].

尿素日报 | 2025-10-10 节后厂内库存高位累库 市场分析 策略 单边：中性 跨期：UR01-05逢高反套 跨品种：无 价格与基差：2025-10-09，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（-61）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1570 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1570元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-49 元/吨（+21）；河南基差：-39元/吨（+41）；江苏基差：-39元/吨（+31）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（-40），出口利润1083 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-09，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-09，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 国庆期间尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌。本周期内内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续 累积，本周较国庆 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China Chemical Fertilizer (00297) has seen a significant stock price increase due to government support for the fertilizer industry, particularly in ensuring stable supply of key raw materials [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, has issued a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical and chemical industry, emphasizing the importance of fertilizer production and supply [1] - The plan includes optimizing production management for key fertilizer companies and promoting long-term contracts between raw material suppliers and fertilizer producers to ensure stable supply [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, the potassium fertilizer market has been experiencing a sustained uptrend since 2025, with limited new capacity expected in 2025-2026 and low domestic inventory levels, indicating a prolonged period of high market demand [2] - China Chemical Fertilizer reported a mid-year revenue of 7.557 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, with segment profit increasing by 53.3% to 719 million yuan [2] - The revenue from potassium fertilizer reached 2.988 billion yuan, up 19.2% year-on-year, while phosphorus fertilizer revenue was 4.362 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.5% increase [2]

中金指出，2025年以来钾肥景气度持续上行，2025-26年行业新增产能有限叠加国内库存低位，此轮钾 肥高景气度或有较长持续性。此前，中化化肥公布2025年上半年业绩。兴证国际认为，中化化肥2025年 中期基础业务收入75.57亿元，同比增长9.9%，分部溢利为7.19亿元，同比增长53.3%，收入和溢利贡献 分别达到51%和50%。其中钾肥收入29.88亿元，同比增长19.2%，磷肥收入43.62亿元，同比增长4.5%。 公司加强战略采购，积极拓展多元化采购渠道。 智通财经APP获悉，中化化肥(00297)午前涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.2%，报1.49港元，成交额4836.91万 港元。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部等7部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》。其中 提出，做好化肥生产保供。优化重点化肥生产企业最低生产计划管理，支持煤炭、磷矿石、天然气、硫 磺、冶炼副产硫酸等重点原料供应企业与化肥生产企业签订长协，确保原料稳定供应。完善化肥产运储 销贸一体化调控体系，强化全国农资保供平台产销协调作用，推动上下游企业建立风险共担、利益共享 的购销模式。推动缓/控释肥、水溶肥、液体肥、中 ...

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 昨日尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 57 元至 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and chemical industry is at a critical juncture for transformation in response to the "dual carbon" goals, emphasizing proactive choices for future survival and competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Steps for Transformation - Step 1: Process Management - The company has established a dedicated environmental management department and a rigorous standardized assessment system to ensure that environmental and carbon reduction goals are integrated into every employee's responsibilities [1][2]. - Step 2: Product Development - The company focuses on developing green products, such as neutral fertilizers and bio-fertilizers, to address soil pollution and improve fertilizer efficiency, collaborating with research institutions to enhance crop yields [2]. - Step 3: Circular Utilization - The company is researching the comprehensive utilization of by-products like phosphogypsum, applying it in various fields such as cement and soil improvement, thus achieving effective resource utilization and environmental restoration [2]. Group 2: Industry Perspective - The green and low-carbon transformation in the chemical industry is a broad and profound systemic project that requires strategic foresight, innovation to break path dependence, and meticulous management to enhance operational efficiency [3].