下注未来 - 当前时点如何看待科技股 20250720 摘要 AI 算力需求激增推动 PCB 产业链全面增长，HDI 技术在 GPU OM 卡和 UBB 中的应用扩大，正交背板创新方案预计 2027 年下半年推出，将进 一步扩大 PCB 市场规模，胜宏、生益电子、鹏鼎东山等企业市值有望突 破千亿。 覆铜板市场由台光、联茂和台耀主导，未来向高频高速发展；玻纤布向 马 8 马 9 产业升级，高阶电子布用量增加；树脂材料主要应用于 PPO 和 碳氢树脂领域，东台科技和胜全表现突出，碳金属比例预计提升。 高端铜箔在高频、高导热、高密度需求下市场前景广阔，HVLP3 和 HVLP4 产品将广泛应用于高级覆铜板，德福科技、同冠同博、佳园科技 与龙阳电子等公司已布局 HVLP 业务，投资价值值得关注。 国内外 AI 大版本升级进入密集期，阿里系千问等大型模型发布，加速 AI 应用货币化，活跃用户数和付费情况提升，消除 AI 泡沫担忧，支撑国内 外 AI 应用发展，利好计算机行业。 中美两国对 AI 战略重视和政策支持力度提升，农业、工业、教育、医疗 和司法等行业有望受益，相关公司如会云通（AI+农业）、鼎捷数智和 索成（工 ...

Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

中信证券：出海可能是新的方向 A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形成资金共识的板块，半 年报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从半年报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期线索之一。从过去几年的 经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积极"反内卷"并提高利润率的一种形式； 从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入 成熟市场的必经之路。 今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状态，随 着8月后贸易战预期逐步稳定、半年报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下到半年报季 结束，依然建议围绕恒科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 国泰海通：科技主题仍是主线 6月以来主题交易热度持续回升，热点主题结构分化。海外云厂商业绩指引乐观叠加英伟达CEO黄仁勋来华的 积极表态，维持推升AI产业相关主题热度且有显著资金净流入，近期活跃的创新药主题再度走强；"反内卷"政 策催化密集，但市场强分歧下股价波动加剧，稳定币与跨境支付主题有所回调。 ...

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the A-share and Hong Kong stock market for quality media companies, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustainability of the current market trend for quality media companies, driven by global resonance in AI application commercialization and the self-consumption trends of Generation Z [2]. - It highlights the global competitive strength of sectors such as gaming, trendy toys, and AI tools, along with differentiated competition based on category and tone [2]. - The report identifies specific opportunities within the AI application chain, particularly in areas like AI advertising, education, and productivity tools, which are expected to see accelerated commercialization [2]. Summary by Sections AI Application - The report notes that the globalization and commercialization of AI applications are progressing rapidly, with significant potential in AI advertising, education, programming, and enterprise-level AI [2]. - Specific companies like Meitu and Kuaishou are highlighted for their strong growth potential in AI applications, with Meitu being noted for its unique global positioning and Kuaishou for exceeding commercialization expectations [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is experiencing short-term volatility; however, the fundamentals of key companies remain strong. New product launches are expected to stabilize performance [2]. - Companies like Giant Network and G-bits are mentioned for their upcoming releases and strong market positions [2]. Cloud Computing - AI is driving a recovery in cloud computing revenue growth, with a focus on internet cloud computing firms that have clear advantages in their own scenarios [2]. - Alibaba is specifically mentioned for its cloud computing direction, which is expected to continue to deliver value [2]. Consumer Trends - The report continues to recommend consumer brands like Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music, which are expected to benefit from market expansion and increasing paid user growth [2]. Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing the market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for key companies in the gaming, film, and entertainment sectors, indicating growth rates and PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 [4].

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.58% during the week of July 14-18, 2025, with a focus on investment opportunities in companies with favorable mid-year report expectations [1][11]. - The report highlights optimism for the gaming sector and AI applications, particularly in AI companionship, education, and toys, as well as the monetization of intellectual property (IP) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking new AI applications and mature applications for investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The media sector's performance was negative, with a decline of 1.58%, while other sectors like telecommunications and pharmaceuticals showed positive growth [11]. - The top five gainers in the media sector included Century Tianhong (17.1%), Focus Technology (13.8%), and Youzu Network (11.9%) [14]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Gaming**: Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Jibite, and Giant Network, with additional attention on Perfect World and Iceberg Network [2][19]. - **AI**: Focus on companies like Dou Shen Education, Sheng Tian Network, and Shanghai Film, among others [2][19]. - **Education**: Companies such as Xueda Education and Fenbi are highlighted for their growth potential [2][19]. 3. Key Events Recap - OpenAI launched the "ChatGPT Agent," marking a significant advancement in automated AI agents capable of performing complex tasks [21]. - Chinese models dominated the global open-source model rankings, with Kimi K2 leading [21]. - Grok introduced an interactive digital companion feature, enhancing user engagement with AI [21]. 4. Sub-sector Data Tracking - The report notes the popularity of upcoming games and highlights the performance of key titles in the gaming market [22]. - The domestic film market's box office for the week was approximately 631 million yuan, with "Jurassic World: Rebirth" leading the rankings [25]. - The report also tracks viewership data for popular series and variety shows, indicating trends in audience preferences [26][27].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - The recovery of H20 chip sales to China signals positive developments in US-China relations, with the approval of H20 chip sales and the introduction of RTX Pro GPU designed for the Chinese market by Nvidia's CEO [2][24] - The chip ban lift is seen as a pragmatic breakthrough in US-China technological cooperation, alleviating domestic computing power bottlenecks and reinforcing the effectiveness of the Geneva framework [2][24] - The regulatory emphasis on rational competition among major food delivery platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com aims to curb irrational subsidies and promote a healthy, sustainable development of the food service industry [2][24] - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding trade negotiations and continues to favor leading Chinese technology firms, suggesting that companies with foundational technology capabilities will gradually demonstrate their long-term investment value [3][25] Market Overview - During the week of July 14-18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 3.17% [1][11] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 7.39%, while the Hang Seng Internet Index rose by 2.84%, with the media sector lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 4.55 percentage points [1][11] - The SW Media Index fell by 2.24%, ranking last among 31 industries in terms of performance [1][11] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "The Lychee of Chang'an" with 121.17 million yuan (21.4% market share), "Liao Zhai: Lan Ruo Temple" with 76.42 million yuan (13.5%), and "The Legend of Hei 2" with 65.84 million yuan (11.6%) [27][28] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue were "Honor of Kings," "Delta Force," and "Peacekeeper Elite," while the top three Android games were "Heart Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "My Leisure Time" [30][31] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Morning Snow Record" (82.5), "Splendid Blossoms" (81.4), and "Book Scroll Dream" (81.1) [32][33] Variety and Animation - The top variety show was "Running Man Season 9" with a broadcast index of 80.5, followed by "Comedy King Stand-up Season 2" and "New Rap 2025" [34] - The top three animated shows were "Cang Yuan Tu" (352.3), "Happy Hammer" (259.9), and "Xian Ni" (232.7) [36]

中信证券研报称，A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够 形成资金共识的板块，中报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从中报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预 期线索之一；从过去几年的经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积 极"反内卷"并提高利润率的一种形式；从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端 配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入成熟市场的必经之路。今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之 一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状态，随着8月后贸易战预期逐步 稳定、中报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下到中报季结束，依然建议围绕恒 科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 ...

2025年，美国年轻人的游戏支出大幅下降。 Circana的新数据显示，18至24岁的玩家在电子游戏上的购买支出同比减少了近25%，降幅超过其他任何年龄段。这一跌幅比科技产品、服装或配饰领域的 下滑更为显著——这些领域同样出现了支出下降。 尽管如此，这些数据已经改变了行业预测。Circana已将2025年美国游戏收入预期下调至565亿美元，较2024年下降4.7%，为2019年以来的最低水平。此前 的预测曾预计增长4.3%，这在很大程度上是基于《GTA 6》将在今年晚些时候推出的假设。 "消费者变得有些犹豫，"皮斯卡特拉说，"他们需要相信自己在游戏上的花费能带来足够的价值。" 今年1月至4月，该年龄段在所有品类上的支出下降了13%，而电子游戏的跌幅最为陡峭。 《华尔街日报》报道了这一数据，并指出经济压力是主要原因。去年秋季，美国学生贷款还款重启，信用卡违约率升至疫情前以来的最高水平——30岁以 下借款人的情况尤为严重。与此同时，游戏发行商将游戏价格提高到70或80美元，而游戏内购机制还在不断扩张。 《华尔街日报》的报道提到："年轻毕业生找工作变得困难得多。信用卡违约率已升至疫情前以来的最高点。" Circan ...